Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Southern Illinois vs. DrakeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DrakeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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At 7-10 in Missouri Valley Conference play, the Bulldogs are a team that still believes it can make some noise. Drake has saved its best basketball for the stretch run, reeling off three straight wins, both SU and ATS. This is a prime opportunity to catch a bad road team flat-footed in Southern Illinois. Note that the Salukis are a miserable 3-11 away from home this season, and coming off an upset win over Northern Iowa on Wednesday, they're in a tough spot here. In fact, Southern Illinois is coming off back-to-back home victories - I just don't see that success translating to the road on Saturday. It's been a struggle for the Salukis to get into the high-50s in most road tilts this season, and that doesn't bode well as they prepare to face a Drake squad that is rounding into form defensively, having given up 54 and 56 points while holding its last two opponents to a combined 36-for-105 shooting. Drake has certainly had Southern Illinois' number in this series, taking eight straight meetings, both SU and ATS. This is by no means the best Salukis squad the Bulldogs will have faced over that period. Keep in mind, five of their last eight wins over Southern Illinois have come in the underdog role. I don't mind laying a handful of points with Drake in this spot, as it aims to keep the ball rolling with the MVC Tournament quickly approaching.
King CreoleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa +14.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawkeyes take to the Big 10 road with REVENGE in their hearts from the earlier loss to Indiana back on New Years Eve. In that game, the Hawkeyes were +7 pts at home, and lost a heartbreaker by the score of 69 to 65.
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Give Iowa some points and the extra incentive of Revenge, and you'll likely bring home the bacon. The HAWKEYES have gone 6-1 ATS in the last 3 seasons as Conference dogs playing with 'SSR1' (same-season single Revenge)... and a PERFECT 5-0 ATS in the last 2 years.
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The good news for us is that Iowa has DOMINATED this foe in the past. They've gone 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings over the past 4 seasons. They've gone 10-2 ATS as DOGS since the 2002 season. That includes 6-1 ATS when playing off a SU win.
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Current 'in-season' REVENGE situations also tell us to grab the points with the road Hawkeyes.
20-6 ATS this season: All > .500 conference underdogs playing with 'SSR1' (IOWA) versus any opponent off a SU loss (Indiana). These teams have gone 13-2 ATS if their opponent was a FAVORITE in their last game (like Indiana).
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Indiana went into Minnesota in their last game as a conference road favorite... and were SHOCKED by the Gophers, losing 77 to 73.
1-8-1 ATS since 1993: All BIG 10 teams playing off a SU conference road loss of 4 > pts in a game in which they were a FAV of -4 > pts (Indiana)... versus an opponent off a SU win (Iowa).
Dave Price
Creighton -5½
It looked like Wichita State might cruise to a second straight MVC title when Creighton lost 3 in a row at the beginning of February. But the Blue Jays have battled back with 3 consecutive conference wins and now have an opportunity to win the Valley on their home floor. I like them to get it done and to cover the spread in the process. The Shockers won the first meeting by 3 points, but Creighton is on an impressive 47-28 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 73.4 to 66.1 in this situation. The Jays are 14-2 at home this season and when they win they win big. All 14 of these wins have come by double digits. The Jays are also 13-2 in their last 15 home games against Wichita State. These two losses have occurred in the last two meetings, which should only fuel Creighton's fire. It's been an awesome season for Wichita State considering all they lost off last year's team. However, Creighton is the better ball club, it's at home, it's out for revenge and it's out for the MVC crown. Lay the points.
Dave Cokin
Notre Dame at Marquette
Pick: Notre Dame
Mike Bray is a tremendous coach and when he has extra time to prep, the Notre Dame mentor is just about money in the bank. That's especially true when Bray and the Irish get points, as is the case today against Marquette. This is not exactly a bold move on my part calling for the upset, as I've been saying all season that Marquette is just not all that good. For that matter, neither are the Irish. But Notre Dame is in my estimation the better fundamental team. With the ample prep time, they should be able to defend the paint well and if they can do that, Marquette is going to be in trouble, as they're pretty bad from the perimeter. Plenty of room for a little error with the number where it is, so let's go Notre Dame plus the points.
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Air Force at Fresno StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Air ForceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Air Force has more than double the conference wins (7) than does Fresno State (3) this season. Air Force scores an average of around 12 more points per game than do the Bulldogs of Fresno State. Over the last 5 games, the Air Force Falcons have shot over 50% from the floor & 35% from behind the arc. On the flip side, the Bulldogs has shot a measly 38.5% from the floor over their last 5 games. Air Force is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games, and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Falcons also took the last meeting between these two teams earlier this season, a 62-50 home victory back on Jan. 30th. Play Air Force.
Harry BondiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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MILWAUKEE (-5.5) over TorontoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto won six out of its first eight games after the big Rudy Gay trade, but the tide has suddenly turned against the Raptors. Following last night's loss to Indiana, Toronto has dropped three in a row both straight up and against the spread and, making matters worse, Gay is struggling with a back injury. Now the team plays its third game in four nights against a Milwaukee team that is playing as well as it has all season as it makes a push for a playoff bid. Toronto's tailspin continues as the Bucks get the easy home win.
Frank Jordan
Brooklyn Nets vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Brooklyn Nets
These two teams are fighting for playoff positioning as they sit at the five and six seeds in the East. Brooklyn is 34-25 with a winning record on the road at 14-12 as they head to Chicago. The Bulls are a better road teams, but this game is in the windy city where they are just 16-14. Chicago has lost six of 10, but are coming off a big win over Philadelphia and could be taken this game for vantage with a game tomorrow with Indiana. Look for the Nets to get back to their winning ways and eye up the top half of the Eastern conference standings. Play Brooklyn
LEGIT PICKS
Saturday 3/2/13 Plays...
3* MIAMI OHIO +2 (12PM PST)
---LEGIT PICK'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--
Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
HAWAII -4 over Cal- Poly SLO: (Added) Good thing I sleep very little as this game starts at 12:30 am my time, but I'm always up for staying up for a winner. The Rainbows haven't played well on the mainland this year, but at home they have gone 14-5 and they do have some big blowout wins on this floor, beating N. Arizona by 34, Long Beach State by 21 and UC Riverside by 15. Cal-Poly has had a nice year so far, but most of their damage has been done at home, where they are 11-1. on the road they have struggled, going 3-11 and it is very tough for teams to be fully ready to play when they head to the Islands. Let's also note that this is Hawaii's best team in years and they have triple revenge for this one, especially in their last meeting this year, which was a 29 point home win by Cal-Poly. Look for Hawaii to continue to play well at home as they take this one by nearly DD.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Butler +7 over VCU: Both of these team have had nice years once again and both are in a battle for the A-10 title in their first years in the league. I know that VCU is at home where they have gone 13-2 on the year, but I don't feel that they should be a favorite of this much. Butler has just two losses on the year of more than 4 points and they are a solid 6-2 SU on the road. This team play s very hard and in this nationally televised game you can bet they will play hard once again and till the final buzzer. VCU does have the advantage on the offensive end, but Butler gets a slight edge on defense allowing just 62.6 ppg on 41.1% shooting, while VCU allows 63.8 ppg on 44.1% shooting. On the road the Bulldogs have been a bit tougher allowing teams to hit just 38.5% of their shots. Defense will be key here and I feel that Butler's defense will be enough to keep this one close. No
Alabama +16.5 over FLORIDA: I know that Florida has outscored their opponent by a gazzillion ppg at home, but this is not a series that has had many blowouts over the years. In the last 10 meetings between these teams there has been just one game that decided by more than 11 points and 8 of those games have been decided by single digits. The Gators have the clear advantage on offense, but both of these defenses are very tough. The Gators come in having allowed just 53.5 ppg overall and they are 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Bama has allowed 58.5 ppg overall, including a mere 51.8 ppg in their last 12 non-OT games. In those 12 games they allowed more than 56 points (58) just once. This team plays some lock down defense. In a game where the pace should be slow (both teams are 294th or higher in pace), limiting possessions and with two awesome defenses teams on the court we should get another tight ball game here with the Gators winning by no more than 8 or 9.Yes
MTSU/ Western Kentucky Over 130: Neither team plays at a high tempo but these two teams are 1 & 2 in offensive efficiency in Sun Belt games this year. MTSU has been excellent on offense of late, having scored at least 66 points in each of their last 13 games, averaging 75.6 ppg over that stretch. On the road, MTSU has hit at least 66 points in each of their last 6 away from home, averaging 68 ppg over that stretch. Defensively MTSU is one of the best in the Sun Belt, but WKU's offense has been nearly unstoppable of late, averaging 80.4 ppg in their last 5 games. The Hilltoppers have scored 65 or more in 7 of their last 8 games and they have averaged 69.5 ppg at home. WKU's games have been very high scoring in their last 5 games and it isn't just due to their offense, but because of a defense that has allowed 75.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Both offenses are rolling right now and one team can play defense at all right now. I clearly expect both team to put up at least 65 in this one and overall I will call for at least 140 points scored.
Idaho State/ Sacramento State Over 114.5: Idaho State has really struggled to score on the road this year, as they have averaged just 49.9 ppg away from home, but they have scored in the 50's in 3 of their last 4 games on the road and Sacramento state is not a great defensive team, allowing 66.2 ppg overall and 65.6 ppg at home. I can see IDSU putting up at least 58 points like in their last road game vs Northern Arizona. Sacramento state is an average offensive team at best, averaging 64.3 ppg overall, but they do average 67.9 ppg at home and IDSU allows 64.3 ppg on the road, so I do expect Sac State to put up at least 60 in this one. Sac State is 2-5 to the Under at home, but the lowest OU line in their home games has been 128.5 and their home games on the year have averaged 133.3 ppg. I look for at least 120 points in this one.
DUKE -7 over Miami: This game just screams revenge and blowout. Ok maybe Duke won't win by 27 points like Miami did in the last meeting, but they should take this one by at least 12 points. Duke was humiliated in their last game vs Miami and had to see the Canes students storm the court, after that win.Duke is a perfect 14-0 at home this year and they have outscored those opponent by 20 ppg on their home floor. Miami has had a great season so far and they bounced back from their initial ACC loss by beating Va Tech on Wednesday, but still down the stretch they haven't been that dominant, especially on off where they have averaged just 62.5 ppg in their last 5 games. Duke does allow just 61.6 ppg on 39.2% shooting at home and they average 81.6 ppg at Cameron Indoor, so I do not see the Canes getting enough points to keep this one close. Also getting Duke off a loss vs Virginia is a plus here as well. They will be fully focused and motivated and should win this one by DD.