SPORTS ADVISORS
MIDWEST REGION
(at Providence, R.I.)
(14) Ohio (22-14, 19-12 ATS) vs. (6) Tennessee (26-8, 13-17-1 ATS)
Ohio pulled off the biggest shocker on a Thursday rife with upsets, ripping third-seeded Georgetown 97-83 as a hefty 13½-point underdog. The Bobcats, tourney champions of the Mid-American Conference, are on a 6-0 SU and ATS tear and are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight outings. Ohio has had just four neutral-site contests all season – its last four games, winning and cashing in all of them while outscoring foes by an average of 12 ppg (78.2-66.0).
Tennessee nabbed its sixth win in the last seven games by fending off 11th-seeded San Diego State 62-59 Thursday as a 3½-point favorite, bouncing back from last Saturday’s 74-45 loss to second-ranked Kentucky in the SEC tourney semifinals. On neutral courts this year, the Volunteers have averaged 68.9 ppg and given up 61.6 ppg, with their three-point defense particularly effective, limiting foes to 27.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
Ohio, making its 12th Tournament appearance, got its first Big Dance win since 1983 with the upset of Georgetown. Tennessee, in the tourney for the fifth straight year, rebounded after getting knocked out by Oklahoma State in the first round last year. The Vols scored narrow back-to-back second round wins in 2007 (77-74 over Virginia) and 2008 (76-71 over Butler).
The Bobcats are on a handful of ATS tears, including 12-1 overall, 6-0 after a SU win, 9-0 against winning teams, 7-0 as a pup, 5-1 at neutral sites and 13-3 coming off a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Vols are on ATS dives of 5-12 overall, 3-8 as a favorite, 3-8-1 in the Big Dance and 2-8-1 as a tourney chalk, though they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five after a pointspread loss and 3-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
The under is 5-1 in the last six non-conference games for Ohio, but the Bobcats are on “over” rolls of 5-1 overall – with Thursday’s rout going way past the 140½-point price – 6-1 after a spread-cover, 7-2 after a SU win and 7-2-1 as an underdog. Tennessee is on “under” runs of 21-7-1 overall, 8-2 in non-conference play, 7-1-1 as a chalk, 6-0-1 at neutral sites, 5-0-1 as a neutral-site favorite, 4-0 after a SU loss and 10-1-1 following a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO
MIDWEST REGION
(at Oklahoma City)
(9) Northern Iowa (29-4, 21-11 ATS) vs. (1) Kansas (33-2, 14-17-1 ATS)
Northern Iowa held off eighth-seeded UNLV 69-66 Thursday as a one-point chalk for its sixth consecutive SU win and fifth straight spread-cover. It was the first time in the last eight games that an opponent scored more than 62 points against the Panthers, who had held five straight foes to 55 or less. Northern Iowa remains the nation’s second-stingiest scoring defense, yielding just 54.6 ppg.
Kansas, the Big 12 regular-season and tournament champ, moved to 19-1 SU in its last 20 games (8-11-1 ATS) by cruising past 16th-seeded Lehigh 90-74, but the Jayhawks were never covering as an overwhelming 25-point chalk. Bill Self fields the nation’s fifth-best scoring team, at 82.0 ppg on 49.1 percent shooting (10th), including a sturdy 41 percent from three-point range (sixth). Kansas is allowing 64.1 ppg with a defense that rates third nationally in shooting percentage (37.8 percent).
This is Northern Iowa’s sixth Tournament appearance and second in a row, but prior to Thursday, the Panthers hadn’t won a Big Dance tilt since 1990. Kansas, which won the national title two years ago and reached the Sweet 16 last year, is making its 21st consecutive appearance, the longest active streak in the nation. Also, the Jayhawks have won seven consecutive second-round games since 2001, all by double digits.
The Panthers sport a boatload of positive ATS streaks, including 37-17 overall, 6-0 in non-conference play, 5-2 against the Big 12, 5-0 at neutral sites, 5-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 54-24 as a pup regardless of venue and 15-5 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The lone negative: a 1-4 ATS mark in their last five Saturday starts.
The Jayhawks are on pointspread skids of 4-10 following a SU win, 1-4 in non-conference action and 2-5 on Saturday, though they still carry positive ATS streaks of 35-16-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 7-3 in the Tournament and 5-2 as a tourney chalk.
With their stout defense, it’s no surprise the Panthers are on “under” tears of 21-7 overall, 18-5 on neutral courts, 37-15-1 getting points, 11-0 as a neutral-site pup and 21-6 following a SU win. Likewise, Kansas is on a boatload of “under” surges, including 4-2 overall, 10-2 in the Big Dance, 7-2 as a tourney chalk, 5-2 in non-conference play, 12-5 on neutral floors and 31-14 following a SU win.
All that said, the over hit in both these teams’ first-round contests, with Northern Iowa-UNLV going well past the 115½-point mark, and Kansas-Lehigh easily clearing the 146½-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WEST REGION
(at Oklahoma City)
(7) BYU (30-5, 19-13 ATS) vs. (2) Kansas State (27-7, 19-9-1 ATS)
BYU, playing in the first game of the Big Dance, got things off to a highly entertaining start, outlasting No. 10 seed Florida 99-92 in double overtime behind Jimmer Fredette’s 37 points. The Cougars, who covered against the Gators as a five-point favorite, are 8-2 SU in their last 10 outings (7-3 ATS). BYU rates in the top 15 nationally in scoring (83.4 ppg, second), field-goal percentage (48.6, 12th) and three-point percentage (42.0, second), and is the No. 1 team at the free-throw line (78.6 percent).
Kansas State rumbled over 15th-seeded North Texas 82-62 Thursday as a healthy 15-point favorite, moving to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four outings. The Wildcats, with their highest seed in school history, average 79.5 ppg (14th) and give up 69.0 ppg, and on neutral courts, they’ve put up 79.4 ppg and allowed 72.2 ppg in going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS.
BYU’s victory Thursday snapped a string of seven straight first-round losses, as it notched its first tourney win since 1993. The Cougars, who have reached this event 25 times, advanced to the second round after bowing out in the first round the past two years – both times to Texas A&M. They haven’t won two games in the same Tournament since reaching the Elite Eight in 1981.
Kansas State, in the tourney for the second time in three seasons after a 12-year drought, hopes to get past the second round for the first time since 1988. Two years ago, the Wilcats were upset by Wisconsin 72-55 as a 4½-point favorite.
These teams met in regular-season play early in the 2002-03 season, with BYU claiming a 73-64 win as a six-point road chalk. They also met eons ago, in a 1951 regional semifinal won by K-State 64-54.
Along with their current 7-3 ATS stretch, the Cougars are on pointspread runs of 5-1 outside the Mountain West Conference (4-0 last four), 12-5 on Saturday, 17-8 after a spread-cover and 15-7 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Still, BYU owns negative pointspread streaks of 2-5 in the Tournament, 3-6 on neutral courts, 19-41 getting points, 3-9 as a neutral-site ‘dog and 1-4 as a tourney pup.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, are on pointspread tears of 18-7-1 overall, 7-0 outside the Big 12, 15-4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 15-5-1 as a favorite, 5-1 at neutral sites and 5-0 as a neutral-site chalk.
BYU is on “over” rolls of 8-3 overall, 16-7 on neutral courts, 5-0 in non-conference play, 5-0 in the Big Dance, 5-0 against the Big 12, 47-20-2 as a pup, 6-2 as a neutral-site ‘dog and 4-1 getting points in the tourney. K-State is on “over” rolls of 5-2 on neutral floors, 5-1 as a neutral-site chalk, and 6-3 in non-conference action, but the under for the Wildcats in on stretches of 4-1-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 6-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE
WEST REGION
(at San Jose, Calif.)
(13) Murray State (31-4, 15-13-2 ATS) vs. (5) Butler (29-4, 14-19 ATS)
Murray State knocked out fourth-seeded Vanderbilt on Thursday on Danero Thomas’ buzzer-beating jumper, securing a 66-65 victory as a 2½-point underdog – its second-ever Big Dance triumph and first since 1988. The Racers have now won 22 of their last 23 games (12-8-1 ATS in lined contests), including the last five in a row (4-1 ATS). Murray State averages 77.2 ppg on superb 50 percent shooting (third-best nationally), and holds foes to 60.6 ppg (21st) on 38.8 percent shooting (12th).
Butler trailed 12th-seeded UTEP by six at the half, then racked up 50 second-half points Thursday to roll to a 77-59 victory as a 2½-point favorite. The Bulldogs, who drained 13 three-pointers in the win, have the nation’s longest active winning streak at 21 in a row (10-11 ATS). Butler has held eight of its last nine opponents under 60 points, while averaging 70.2 ppg offensive. In the past five games, the ‘Dogs have put up 71.8 ppg on 48.3 percent shooting and allowed 57 ppg on a stifling 37.6 percent shooting.
Murray State is in its 14th Big Dance, yet prior to Thursday its only previous win came 22 years ago against North Carolina State (78-75). Butler is making its fourth straight Tournament appearance and ninth overall, and after getting bounced in the first round last year by LSU, the Bulldogs are back in the second round for the fifth time since 2001. Last year, they fell to Tennessee 76-71 in the second round after topping Maryland 62-59 to reach the Sweet 16 in 2007.
The Racers have cashed in four of their last five overall, but otherwise own nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 1-5-1 in non-conference play, 3-7 at neutral sites, 4-12 against winning teams and 8-18-1 after a spread-cover. Butler, meanwhile, is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 after a spread-cover and 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral-site starts, but it also carries positive ATS streaks of 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 against winning teams, 5-2 in the tourney and a lengthy 41-20-1 in non-conference action.
The over has been the play in four of Murray State’s last five as a ‘dog, but the Racers are otherwise on “under” tears of 5-1-1 overall (4-0 last four), 5-0-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 11-2 at neutral sites (5-0 last five). Butler is on a 5-1 “under” surge, all as a chalk, but carries a handful of “over” streaks, as well, including 11-2 at neutral sites, 13-3 as a neutral-site favorite (7-1 last eight), 21-10 outside the Horizon League, 9-2 on Saturday and 4-0 in the tourney.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
EAST REGION
(at New Orleans)
(9) Wake Forest (20-10, 16-11 ATS) vs. Kentucky (33-2, 18-15 ATS)
Wake Forest got a final-seconds jumper from Ishmael Smith to top No. 8 seed Texas 81-80 in an overtime thriller as a 5½-point underdog Thursday, helping justify its Big Dance inclusion despite a 1-5 SU plunge (3-3 ATS) heading into the event. The Demon Deacons, whose only neutral-site starts this year have come in their last two games, average 69.8 ppg away from home this year and give up a shade more at 71.1.
Kentucky had no problems in its tourney opener, ripping 16th-seeded East Tennessee State 100-71 as an 18½-point chalk for its sixth consecutive win (3-3 ATS) and 14th in its last 15 games. The Wildcats are averaging 79.8 ppg (12th nationally) on 48 percent shooting (16th) and are fifth in the nation in rebounding (38.5 per game), while allowing 65.4 ppg with the nation’s sixth-best field-goal defense (38 percent).
Wake Forest is making its 22nd Tournament appearance and has reached the second round after getting bounced by 13th-seeded Cleveland State in a first-round upset last year. The Demon Deacons have advanced out of the first weekend just once since 1996, topping Manhattan 84-80 back in 2004.
Kentucky has a huge Big Dance resume, playing in this event for the 51st time, advancing to 13 Final Fours and winning seven national championships. The Wildcats are 101-45 SU in the Tournament, but they haven’t reached the Sweet 16 since getting to the Elite Eight in 2005. In fact, Kentucky is just 1-3 in its last four second-round contests.
These teams met in a 1993 regional semifinal and a 1996 regional final, and Kentucky hammered Wake both times. In 1993, the ‘Cats torched the Deacons 103-69, and in ’96, Kentucky rolled 83-63 on its way to a national title.
The Demon Deacons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and are on additional ATS surges of 7-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 4-0 as a pup, 10-4 on Saturday and 5-2 against SEC foes. However, they also carry two lengthy and pertinent ATS skids: 2-10 in the tourney and 7-24 on neutral courts.
The Wildcats are on ATS upticks of 4-0 as a tourney chalk, 6-1 on Saturday and 4-1 in non-conference action, though they are also in pointspread funks of 1-9-1 against the ACC, 3-8 following a spread-cover and 0-4 following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Wake Forest is on “under” stretches of 10-4 overall, 6-0 on Saturday, 4-1 as a pup and 8-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600. The Deacons also sport “over” rolls of 6-1 in the tourney, 4-1 against the SEC, 4-1 at neutral sites and 8-3 in non-conference play.
Kentucky is on “over” stretches of 3-1 overall, 6-1 in non-conference action, 4-1 in the Tournament and 12-5 as a tourney chalk. That said, the ‘Cats are on “under” rolls of 4-0 on Saturday, 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-3 at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
EAST REGION
(at San Jose, Calif.)
(11) Washington (25-9, 15-18 ATS) vs. (3) New Mexico (30-4, 18-13-2 ATS)
Washington took down sixth-seeded Marquette 80-78 as a one-point pup Thursday, getting a game-winning bucket from Quincy Pondexter in the final seconds to secure the win. The Huskies have ripped off eight consecutive victories, going 7-1 ATS in that stretch, and theyv’e averaged 75.8 ppg on 48.7 percent shooting in their last five games, hitting a stout 54.5 percent against the Golden Eagles (30 of 55).
New Mexico fended off No. 14 seed Montana 62-57 Thursday night, but came up short as an 8½-point favorite for its fourth consecutive ATS setback. The Lobos have won 16 of their last 17 games (8-8-1 ATS). In five neutral-court contests this season, Steve Alford’s squad has averaged 74.6 ppg and allowed 67.6 ppg.
Washington, in its 15th tourney, has reached the second round for the second straight year and the fourth time since 2005, but it lost to fourth-seeded Purdue 76-74 as a one-point favorite a year ago. New Mexico is in its 12th Tournament overall and first since 2005, but has never made it into the Round of 16. In fact, Thursday’s victory over Montana was the Lobos’ first in the Big Dance since 1999.
Along with their current 7-1 ATS run, the Huskies are on spread-covering upturns of 7-0 on Saturday, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 in the Tournament and 5-1 laying points, but they are still just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 outside the Pac-10.
The Lobos are in ATS funks of 1-6 overall (0-4 last four), 2-9 on neutral courts, 1-5 after a SU win and 1-4 following an ATS loss. Still, they carry positive pointspread rolls of 7-2 after a non-cover, 12-4-1 in non-conference play, 8-2 getting points and 5-0 against Pac-10 opponents.
The under is 17-9 in Washington’s last 26 non-conference games and 9-4 in its last 13 as a chalk, but the Huskies are on “over” surges of 18-7 after a spread-cover, 25-11 coming off a SU win, 4-1 against teams from the Mountain West conference and 7-3 in the Tournament. New Mexico is on “over” sprees of 5-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win and 4-1 after a non-cover, but the Lobos also carry “under” streaks of 9-4 on Saturday, 6-2-1 as a neutral-site pup and 4-1-1 when catching less than seven points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
SOUTH REGION
(at Providence, R.I.)
(10) St. Mary’s (27-5, 20-10 ATS) vs. vs. (2) Villanova (25-7, 18-13 ATS)
Big man Omar Samhan scored 29 points and pulled down 12 rebounds in just 28 minutes to lead St. Mary’s to an 80-71 upset victory over seventh-seeded Richmond as a two-point ‘dog in Thursday’s opening round. In notching their first Tournament win since 1959, the Gaels broke open a game that was tied at halftime and they led by double digits late.
St Mary’s has now won six in a row overall (5-1 ATS), and going back to Christmas Day it is 17-3 SU (with two of the three defeats coming to West Coast Conference rival Gonzaga). During this 20-game stretch, the Gaels have scored at least 69 points 17 times, topping 80 points on 10 occasions.
Villanova barely escaped a stunning upset Thursday, needing a rally to force overtime then held off 15th-seed Robert Morris 73-70. The Wildcats, who trailed 28-22 at halftime, never came close to covering as a 17½-point favorite. The ugly victory continued a trend of late-season struggles for Villanova, which jumped out to a 22-2 start to the year before losing five of its final seven games coming into the Big Dance.
Villanova averaged 85.3 ppg during its 22-2 start, but has since dropped to 72.9 ppg over its last eight games (3-5 SU). In Thursday’s victory, the ‘Cats shot just 35.3 percent overall, going 6-for-22 from three-point range, with star guard Scottie Reynolds going a woeful 2-for-15 from the floor.
This is the second time in three years and the sixth time in all that St. Mary’s has gone dancing, but it has never advanced past the second round. Meanwhile, Villanova, which is in the tourney for the fifth straight year, reached the Final Four last year, and it has won four straight second-round games dating to 2005 (3-1 ATS), including last year’s 89-69 rout of UCLA as a 2½-point favorite.
St. Mary’s is now 4-1 SU and ATS in neutral-site games, winning and cashing in the last four in a row, while the Wildcats are 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) at neutral venues.
The Gaels are on pointspread hot streaks of 20-5-1 in non-conference games, 16-7 after a victory and 13-4 after a spread-cover, but they’re 3-5 ATS in their last eight against winning teams, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a neutral-site underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last five on Saturday.
Villanova started the season 15-4 ATS but it has now failed to cash in nine of its last 12. The Wildcats are also in ATS slumps of 1-4 versus winning teams, 0-6 after a SU victory, 2-7 as a favorite, 2-7 as a favorite in the Tournament and 0-4 on Saturday. However, they’re 4-2 ATS in their last six at neutral sites (all as a chalk), and they’ve cashed in seven of 10 non-league contests.
St. Mary’s easily topped the total in Thursday’s win over Richmond, so the over is now 21-7 in its last 28 non-conference tilts and 10-3-1 in its last 14 as a ‘dog of less than seven points. However, the Gaels are still on “under” streaks of 8-3 overall, 8-2 after a victory, 4-1 as an underdog at neutral sites and 25-11 on Saturday. Meanwhile, Villanova stayed low on Thursday and has done so in five of its last seven overall following a 15-4 “over” stretch. Still, the Wildcats are on “over” runs of 6-1 in non-conference play, 14-5 after a SU victory and 14-7 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. MARY’S
SOUTH REGION
(at New Orleans)
(11) Old Dominion (27-8, 14-17 ATS) vs. (3) Baylor (26-7, 16-10 ATS)
Old Dominion rallied past No. 6 seed Notre Dame on Thursday 51-50 as a 2½-point underdog, scoring its first Big Dance win in 15 years and just its third in school history. Frank Hassell led the way with team-highs of 15 points and nine rebounds, and the Monarchs held Notre Dame to just 35.6 percent shooting – including a last-second, game-tying three-pointer that was off the mark. ODU trailed by six at halftime.
The Monarchs have won six in a row (4-2 ATS), with the last four coming at neutral sites (3-1 ATS). Going back to early December, Old Dominion is on a 23-5 SU roll.
Baylor got a stiff test from 13th-seeded Sam Houston State on Thursday, put pulled away late for a 68-59 victory, its first in the Tournament since 1950. Ekpe Udoh (team-high 20 points, game-high 13 rebounds) led the charge for the Bears, who outshot Sam Houston State 44.1 percent to 33.8 percent and had a 45-34 rebounding edge.
Baylor has won nine of 11 overall, but it has followed up a three-game ATS surge with consecutive non-covers. The Bears are just 5-7 ATS in their last 12 after cashing in 11 of their first 14 lined outings.
Old Dominion, which is in this event for the first time since 2007, is now 3-9 all-time in the tourney, but the Monarchs have never made it past the second round. Baylor is making just its third trip to the Tournament since 1950 and it hasn’t won two games in the same Tournament since 1948.
The Monarchs remain in ATS ruts of 8-18 at neutral sites (3-14 last 17), 3-7 in non-conference action, 6-14 against winning teams, 9-19 on Saturday, 10-25 after a spread-cover 2-6 as an underdog, 1-8 as a neutral-site pup and 1-6 when catching less than seven points. Meanwhile, despite coming up short of the number against Sam Houston State, Baylor is on ATS upticks of 6-1 in non-league action, 8-3 on Saturday 19-8 at neutral sites, 4-1 as a favorite and 8-4 as a neutral-site chalk.
Old Dominion has topped the total in seven of nine overall, six of eight after a victory and four of five on Saturday. However, the Monarchs are also on “under” runs of 9-2 in non-conference play, 6-2 at neutral sites, 9-3 as an underdog, 5-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog (4-0 last four) and 8-3 when catching less than seven points anywhere. Also, Baylor has stayed low in five of six non-Big 12 contests, but otherwise the Bears are on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 8-3 on Saturday and 13-3 after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR
Hollywood Sports
BYU at Kansas State
Prediction: BYU
Take BYU plus the points over Kansas State. BYU survived a double-overtime scare against Florida to win their first game in the Big Dance since 1993. Led by Jimmer Fredette's 22.1 PPG, the Cougars put up 83.1 PPG on strong 48.3% shooting. They will be able to keep up with a talented Kansas State team. But the key intangible in this matchup is free throw shooting. BYU leads the nation with their 78.6% from the charity stripe. Their two guards, Fredette and Tyler Haws, shoot an incredible 89% and 91% respectively from the line. And Kansas State allows the third most free throw attempts by their opponents in the nation. BYU raises its level of play against good competition as they have covered the spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%. Kansas State was not tested in their 82-62 win over North Texas. They are in for a very tough game now. The Cougars #7 seed is a joke since they are ranked #23rd in the RPI. The Wildcats may survive this game -- but it will be a very close contest. Take the points with BYU.
John Ryan
Wake Forest at Kentucky
Prediction: Wake Forest
3* graded play on Wake Forest as they take on Kentucky set to start at 8:45 EST in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Wake will lose this game by fewer than 9 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 115-66 ATS since 1997. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games facing an opponent after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games. We really like Wake Forest HC Gaudio and how he prepares very well for elite teams. Note that he is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals. Take Wake.
MTi Sports
Toronto Raptors at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New Jersey Nets
The Raptors are going for the season sweep here. However, they are 0-5 ATS as a road favorite and when facing a team they beat in their first three match-ups of the season and 0-11 ATS (-10.8 ppg) when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games. In the Nets? favor, we note that they are 8-0-1 ATS (+7.0 ppg) at home with rest after a game on the road in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. Try the points.
Terron Chapman
Murray State vs. Butler
Play: Murray State +4.5
The No. 13 seed Murray St Racers became the early darlings of the NCAA Tournament with an last second, 66-65 upset win over the No. 4 seed Vanderbilt Commodores Thursday afternoon in round one of the West Regional at HP Pavilion in San Jose. We stated Thursday how the Racers were a team to watch, and Saturday afternoon they’ll get another chance to show the nation that the glass slipper fits as they look to end the Butler Bulldogs 21-game winning streak.
The sports book odds associated with this second round match-up suggest the Butler Bulldogs should be the favorite and rightfully so, after outlasting the UTEP Miners, 77-59 in an impressive first round victory. However, the Racers are not your average 13-seed and should be given serious consideration to pull off the upset.
The Racers success this season came at an amazing rate of not only winning games but winning them by large margins. The Racers were the third team in D-I to reach 20 wins after Syracuse and BYU and were the first to 30 when they won the OVC title. MSU led the OVC this season in winning margin at 17 points per game and had 13 wins this season of 20 or more points against D-I teams. They’re as balanced a team as you’ll find in the country with all five starters averaging double-figures.
The Bulldogs have been impressive on the defensive end of the floor all season, although they’ll be tested Saturday against a Murray St team that comes in averaging 77 pts/gm. The Racers are third in the nation in team field goal percentage, connecting on just under half of their attempts (49.4%) and they rank first in the nation in points per possession at 1.13, punishing teams for turning the ball over.
The Butler Bulldogs have been a model of consistency lately. However, Saturday they’ll be up against a team that is more athletic and more efficient than they are on both ends of the floor. The Bulldogs will have to bring their “A” game because there is no doubt the Racers will. Even still, I’m not sure if that will be enough to derail a motivated Murray St team. Look for another inspired performance from the Racers as they put an end to the Bulldogs 21-game winning streak and advance to the round of 16. Play on the Murray St Racers for 1 unit.
Craig Trapp
Ohio vs. Tennessee
Play: Ohio +8.5
Wow this spread should be +7 and we would still like Ohio in this one. Will take the extra points and love it. Ohio might be the hottest shooting team in all of the tourney. The last 4 games they have shot over 50% from the field but have not allowed a team to shoot over 45%. Call me crazy but this one will come right down to the end with Ohio having a chance to win it outright. Ohio is a very good 19-12 ATS and are 4-0 ATS in neutral sites shooting 48.5 percent. On the other hand TENN is only 4-2 straight up on neutral floors and only shoot 42% from the field. TENN just does not play well away from home but Ohio loves the road and will prove it again today.
Rob Vinciletti
B.Y.U. vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -4.5
Kansas St applies to a nice system here that plays on NCAAB Tourney favorites if both teams scored 80 or more in their last game if our team is seeded higher has a win percentage of .750 or higher and the opponent which is BYU in this game allowed 150 or more over their last 2 games. Also of note is that certain dogs in this round have struggled off over time wins. Byu played a double ot. thriller on Thursday, finally getting the win and cover vs Florida. Seven seeds have been poor investments in this round and BYU is just 1-6 ats in the Tournament over the years. When the total is 150 to 160 they are 1-4 ats and have lost and failed to cover 3 of the 4 times when installed as an underdog this year. Kansas. St on the other hand is 9-3 ats vs teams who score 77 or more, have covered 16 of 23 times when favored, 8 of 10 vs non conference teams and have won 16 of 22 times vs winning teams. Look for Kansas St to get the win and cover.
Marc Lawrence
North Carolina at Mississippi State
Prediction: North Carolina
When the Tar Heels take on the Bulldogs at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville in 2nd round action of the NIT today they will do so knowing North Carolina has cleaned up in games against the SEC, going 24-7 SU and 21-9-1 ATS, including 10-1 SU and ATS of late. In addition, UNC is the defending national champion ad was ranked No. 5 in the preseason polls this year. With MSU just 3-6 SU in head-to-head battles with teams out of the ACC, including 0-2 ATS as a favorite of six or more points, look for the Heels to continue to repair their image here today. Grab the points.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Saint Mary's @ Villanova
PICK: Saint Mary's +4.5
We believed that Nova was drastically over rated coming into the tournament. No way they deserved a #2 seed in our opinion. They really struggled down the stretch losing 5 of their final 7 games and they nearly lost to a bad Robert Morris team yesterday. Despite the fact they were a 15 seed, we had Bobby Morris rated as the third worst team in the Big Dance ahead of only Arkansas Pine Bluff and Lehigh. This team should have been a 16 seed. Yet, despite that, they led for a vast majority of their game against Nova and if not for the officials bailing Scotty Reynolds out on a number of late game calls, we're not even discussing the Wildcats right now because they'd be done.
While Villanova was struggling in round 1, St. Marys was cruising to an easy win against a very good Richmond team. The 80-71 win wasn't indicative of how dominant the Gaels were in that game. They led by 15 late and absolutely destroyed the Spiders on the boards to the tune of 39 to 16 caroms. They pose a huge threat to opposing defenses because they can score in the paint with big man Omar Samhan (21 PPG, 11 RPG) or from the perimeter as they have five regulars that shoot 36% or better from behind the arc. As a whole this team puts up nearly 80 PPG, they are 11th nationally in offensive FG% (nearly 49%) and 5th in the country in 3-point shooting (41%). Oh, and we forgot they don't miss often from the FT line (76%). This teams has all the makings we look for in an "underdog upset" situation.
Nova is a team that relies very heavily on their guards and perimeter scoring. They shoot it pretty well from deep with Reynolds, Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes leading the way. However, the St. Marys defense matches up nicely against this team. Gael's opponents are successful only 29% of the time from deep range which ranks their defense 8th nationally in that category. The Cats were really lucky to get to round 2. However, there seems to be something missing down the stretch for this squad. Head coach Jay Wright actually disciplined teams leaders Scotty Reynolds and Corey Fisher in yesterday's game which is not a good sign at this point in the season. St. Mary's can play toe to toe with this team and we're not so sure they aren't the better team right now. Take the points and we'll call for an upset.
MATT FARGO
Murray State @ Butler
Pick: Murray St +4.5
Murray St. is a very tough matchup for Butler. The Racers are quick, deep and athletic and being as balanced as they are makes them tough to defend because there is no one player to key on. Murray St. has six players averaging between 9.5 ppg and 10.6 ppg and it simply does not get more balanced than that. To be fair, the Ohio Valley Conference is far from a strong conference and the only real non-conference test came at California early in the season where the Racers lost by only five points. As good and balanced as the offense is, Murray St. relies a lot on a strong defense that held opponents to just 38.9 percent shooting from the floor. Because they are so quick, they force a ton of turnovers, close to 17 per game, and they allowed opponents to post a 0.67 assist/turnover ratio. While the OVC is weak as mentioned, the Horizon League is not much better. That is the main reason that Butler has won 21 straight games and a reason why that streak is in jeopardy. The Bulldogs played a near flawless second half against UTEP on Thursday where it made 10 three-pointers and was able to easily erase a six-point halftime deficit. This team is very good, don’t get me wrong, but it pays more often than not to actually go against teams that are coming off such a good effort. Prior to the win over the Miners, the Bulldogs had a nice win over Siena during Bracket Buster weekend but other than that, nothing else stands out. Sure they defeated Ohio St. back in December but if Even Turner played that game, things would have turned out differently. A one-point win at home over Xavier was the only other win against a tournament team so the resume is far from impressive. The public will see that long winning streak and a short line and be all over the Bulldogs and that is already the case as of Friday night where the majority of the action is on them. Murray St. got a fortunate break to make it to this game but it carries that momentum forward on Saturday. 3* Murray St. Racers
DAVID CHAN
Boston @ Dallas
Pick: Boston +4.5
It’s hard to jump on either of these teams. The Celtics are 27-38-2 ATS, while the Mavs are 28-39-1. It’s enough to make a grown man cry. Here’s something interesting though: Boston is actually almost bettable on the road. The Celtics are 17-16-1 ATS away from the Garden. Shop that push to a win, and it’s a breakeven deal.
Dallas is miserable at home: 7-26-1 ATS. That includes winning two but not covering any of the three games so far on the home stand as a double-digit favorite. If the Knicks can beat the Mavs by 34 in Dallas, surely the Celtics can give the Mavs a game.
Boston has won and covered three of its last four, including against those pesky Knicks on Saint Patrick’s Day.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Washington Huskies -1
We cashed in with Washington in round one, and it is worth a small play again today. Led by Quincy Pondexter, the Huskies are on some kind of a role. They have won 8 straight and covered the spread in 7 of those. This is a very confident team right now, and I'm giving them the edge for heading into the Sweet 16. I can't look past the fact that New Mexico is on a 2-11 ATS skid when playing away from home versus good offensive teams, scoring 77 or more points per game, after 15+ games, losing to these teams by an average score of 69.1 to 80.2. The Lobos are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. Take Washington.
JIM FEIST
CHICAGO BULLS / PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
TAKE: PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Chicago has been on a terrible slump because of injuries. Making matters worse is that this is a terrible situational handicapping spot, playing their third game in four nights. They had to play at home last night against the mighty Cavaliers, and now head out on the road. Philadelphia plays its best basketball at home and is in a less demanding spot, playing at NY last night. This is a good spot to have depth and go to your bench to at least rest some starters, but the Bulls hve been shorthanded all week. An excellent spot for the home team to run away with it in the second half against the tired visitors. Play the 76ers.
EZWINNERS
Mississippi St. Bulldogs -7.5
The Tar Heels will have their hands full with Mississippi State, which came within moments of beating Kentucky for the SEC championship and earning an NCAA berth. The Bulldogs started slow in their first NIT game against Jackson State but put together a nice second half to pull away with a comfortable win. When a team that expects to make the Big Dance doesn't get in they tend to lay down during the NIT, but I don't believe that to be the case with Mississippi State. The Bulldogs will be up for this game as its not often that you get to face a team with the name recognition of North Carolina in the NIT tournament. The Heels have had a horrible season and were lucky to get by William and Mary in the first round. I expect the Bulldogs to bury the Heels in this game. UNC is only 1-10 against the spread in their last eleven games as an underdog. Lay the points.