Bobby Maxwell
BYU vs. Kansas St. (-5), at Oklahoma City, OK
I have a big winner in the Big Dance as I lay the chalk with Kansas State taking on BYU.
BYU is not going to be able to stay with Kansas State at all. Just too much quickness and athleticism with the Wildcats and they will give the Cougars fits all night tonight.
I know BYU has all the numbers with the high scoring average, the high field-goal percentage and three-point percentage, but today they are going to have to defend or they will get run out of the building. Teams that gave the Cougars fits this season were teams that had deep benches and athletic lineups. They lost to New Mexico twice and lost to UNLV in the Mountain West Conference.
Then you have a Kansas State team that to the finals of the Big 12 tourney and who came out and destroyed North Texas in the opening round Thursday, winning 82-62 as a 15-point favorite. They shot better than 50 percent from the floor and outrebounded North Texas 38-33. The Wildcats had four starters in double-digits with Denis Clemente leading the charge with 17 points and six assists.
BYU hasn’t won two games in the Big Dance since 1981. They are on ATS slides of 2-5 in NCAA tourney play, 3-6 at a neutral site, 19-41 as an underdog, 1-4 as a Big Dance ‘dog and 3-9 as a neutral site ‘dog.
Kansas State has been solid at the betting window, on ATS streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 7-0 in non-conference action, 15-5-1 as a favorite, 5-1 on a neutral court and 5-0 as a favorite on a neutral court.
This is a bad matchup for the Cougars. Lay the chalk with the quicker, better team. Go with Kansas State tonight.
5♦ KANSAS ST.
New Mexico (+1') vs. Washington, at San Jose, CA
I have a winner coming your way in the Big Dance as I grab the points with New Mexico taking on Washington.
Not too often you see a No. 11 seed actually favored over the No. 3 seed but that’s what we have here as everybody has fallen in love with Washington, especially the oddsmakers. It’s a huge mistake because New Mexico is the type of team that can handle Washington and frustrate the Huskies.
The Lobos beat Montana 62-57 on Thursday and they have won 16 of their last 17, with the only loss coming in the Mountain West semifinals against San Diego State. Other than a very strange loss to Oral Roberts, the Lobos don’t know how to lose. They have beaten a damn good Texas A&M team, New Mexico State (twice), California, BYU (twice) and UNLV on the road.
New Mexico and coach Steve Alford will be ready to go tonight against Washington. Talk about playing the “no respect” card, Alford will use the line in this one to show his kids how the country is against them.
The Lobos are on ATS runs of 7-2 after a non-cover, 12-4-1 in non-conference play, 8-2 as an underdog and 5-0 against Pac-10 teams.
Remember, before their run in the Pac-10 tourney last weekend, the Huskies were likely on the bubble and going to end up not in the Big Dance. They had some ugly losses this season, including a strange home loss to Oregon, falling 90-79.
The Lobos are going to frustrate the Huskies today. New Mexico executes on offense and has the habit of getting under their opponents skin. Grab the points and play the Lobos in this one. The higher seed is the better team.
3♦ NEW MEXICO
Karl Garrett
St. Mary's (+4') vs. VILLANOVA - at Providence, RI
Tempting to get the # 2 seed Villanova at such a low price, but maybe the Wildcats first round scare against Robert Morris was not a fluke, and just maybe this 'Nova team has already peaked.
That makes 3 in a row, and 7 of the last 9 games against the spread in the loss column for the team from the Main Line in Philadelphia!
St. Mary's looks like they have something going right now, as the Gaels have stormed to wins in 6 straight, and 12 of their last 14. The way Mary's brushed off the highly-touted Spiders of Richmond in the first round tells me this team could again make some noise against the Wildcats who just don't look solid to me at all.
Grab the points as the underdog Gaels give the Wildcats a game.
3♦ ST. MARY'S
Jacksonville at TEXAS TECH (-9) - NIT
G-Man has a NIT winner for you this Saturday, as Texas Tech steps up their game and ends their 4-game home court losing streak with a convincing rout of Jacksonville.
The Dolphins were able to go to Arizona earlier in the week and win against Arizona State as the double-digit underdog, but postseason wins are few-and-far between for this Jacksonville team, and now having to travel once again all the way back to Texas will finally take its toll.
Texas Tech is still 8-5 against the spread in their lined home games, and they should be brimming with confidence after drilling Seton Hall outright as the near double-digit road dog earlier in the week.
This one may be close for a while, but fatigue will set in for Jacksonville, and Texas Tech will pull away on their home floor.
2♦ TEXAS TECH
Brett Atkins
You want a free winner in the Big Dance? You want the potential upset of the day? It's right here in my free play as I'm telling you St. Mary's is going to give fits to Villanova in the second-round game. Grab the points with the Gaels.
The Gaels are for real, don't believe for a second they are a Cinderella. Just because the seedings don't show it doesn't mean a thing. These guys have beaten the likes of New Mexico State, Utah State, Gonzaga and played Vanderbilt to a two-point game early in the season.
However, their opponents today - Villanova - is looking worse as the season goes along. Throw in the fact the Big East has looked like crap in this tourney and I like St. Mary's even more.
The Gaels are on ATS runs of 4-1 in neutral site games, 20-5-1 in non-conference play and 13-4 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.
Now there is controversy for Villanova after two starters were benched in the tourney opener, including star Scottie Reynolds. I'll grab the points with St. Mary's and I won't be surprised if they pull off the upset.
3♦ ST. MARY'S
Jay McNeil
BYU vs. Kansas State, at Oklahoma City
I admit it - I like Frank Martin.
He's energetic, he's today's kind of coach and he's certainly fun to watch. Too bad he won't be around after the second round.
I think this Mountain West entry was and still is the most dangerous of the quartet that made it, mostly because of Jimmer Fredette. Though he's arguably the most exciting point guard left in the Dance, the oddsmakers still have them installed as underdogs, and that sits just fine with the 6-foot-2, 195-pound hard-nosed competitors.
Sure, there are some that might believe Fredette won't be able to handle a physical tussle with the Wildcats after surviving a double-overtime win against Florida on Thursday. But this is the same kid with the intriguing storyline that is highlighted by the toughening of his play thanks to pickup games against inmates at a couple of upstate-New York prisons.
So, what makes you think some game in the Big Dance is going to be any tougher? Take the points.
2♦ BRIGHAM YOUNG
Joel Tyson
I like Baylor minus the points over Old Dominion.
Both teams were tested on Thursday, and while the Bears did not cover in their win over Sam Houston State, they are still on a 6-3 spread run their last 9 when laying points.
As for Old Dominion, they have done a great job in games in which they were favored to win, but as the underdog, the Monarchs are just 1-3 their last 4, and 2-6 overall for the year when catching points.
Baylor has the look of a Final Four team to me, and after a shaky first round, I like them to tune up ODU in this spot.
5♦ BAYLOR
Jeff Benton
For Saturday's free play in the Big Dance, I'll take the points with St. Mary’s against Villanova.
I don’t know what the hell is going on with the Wildcats, but I do know something’s not right. This team started out 22-2 on the season and had the look of a national title contender. But over the past five weeks, the Wildcats have dropped five of eight game – and that easily could’ve been six of eight, as Villanova got LUCKY with that three-point overtime win over No. 15 seed Robert Morris on Thursday.
Granted, I’m one who always cautions against overreacting to first-round results – and obviously St. Mary’s (80-71 win over Richmond) looked tremendous on Thursday compared with Villanova’s effort against Robert Morris. And really, that theory of not overreacting is the only reason St. Mary’s isn’t a premium selection for me – that and the fact this line isn’t really where it should be.
Still, there’s value with the Gaels because of Villanova’s continued struggles. After a manhandling a slew of opponents en route to that 22-2 start, the Wildcats have since posted just one really impressive victory (74-49 home win over South Florida). Villanova’s big problem has been the spotty play of senior guard and team leader Scottie Reynolds. Reynolds didn’t start Thursday because of some bizarre “teaching” lesson coach Jay Wright wanted to impart, and when he came in, he was atrocious, finishing 2-for-15 from the field (1-for-8 on 3s). That followed a 4-for-10 shooting effort against Marquette in an opening-round Big East tournament loss. That came after poor shooting nights against West Virginia (5-for-16, 1-for-9 on 3s) and Syracuse (6-for-14).
Now the cold-shooting Reynolds is running up against a Gaels squad that gives up just 66.4 ppg on 42.7 percent shooting, including only 29.2 percent from three-point range. At the other end of the court, St. Mary’s has scored 80 or more in three of its last four games and has topped 70 points in all but five games this season. Finally, while ‘Nova has hit the skids at the wrong time, St. Mary’s is peaking, posting six straight wins (5-1 ATS), including the last two on neutral courts against quality teams (81-62 over Gonzaga; 80-71 over Richmond). St. Mary’s has also won and covered five of six on neutral courts this year and is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 in non-league play.
6♦ ST. MARY'S
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington –1½ over New Mexico
This whole “Pac 10 is terrible” was hogwash from the very beginning and the proof is that a #11 seed is currently favored over the #3 seed. That hasn’t happened in ages and it’s a sign that this Washington Huskies team is for real. They stormed back from a 15-point, second half deficit to defeat Marquette in a game they were were not favored in and did so despite allowing Marquette to shoot 63% from three point land. Washington’s Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas both came up huge at the end of the game and have a real shot at the Elite-Eight if they play to their capabilities today. Don’t be fooled by the “3” next to New Mexico. They played a very pedestrian Montana team close, not a big surprise considering New Mexico played one high pressure game all season and promptly lost it in their conference tournament. They got a very favorable seed that they had no business getting and they’re about to play their second big game of the season. That’s a big problem and one they could have addressed if they had played a semi-respectable non conference schedule. Instead, the Lobos chose to pile up 14 wins while playing exactly 4 road games, one of which they lost to non tournament team Oral Roberts. This team is nowhere near ready to play in a game of this magnitude and that’s before I tell you about the matchup problem this Husky team poses to the Lobos. You see, despite playing a weak schedule, the Lobos allowed opponents to shoot close to 50% on inside shots and finished 5th in the Mountain West Conference in defensive efficiency. That simply isn’t and won’t be good enough to stop the fast paced Washington offense that has averaged 80 points a game over their last four must win contests. The Huskies also shot 50% from two during the regular season and converted 72.7% of their free throws. The bottom line is that the Lobos aren’t prepared for this game simply because they’ve never been in this situation before. Look for the Huskies to jump on them early and continue their “Cinderella” run. Play: Washington –1½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
James Patrick Sports
BYU vs. Kansas State
The Kansas State Wildcats have proven this season that they can win on the road and HC Frank Martin's Wildcats have one of the Big XII's best backcourt combinations. The Wildcats are in for a hard days work this Saturday against the BYU Cougars of veteran coach Dave Rose as BYU returns (4) starters from a (25-8) team. Rose had (97) wins in (4) seasons coming into this season and don't miss star Jimmer Fredette who is on fire in postseason action. The Big Man's Saturday selection in the NCAA Tournament is BYU Cougars.
Nelly
Ohio vs. Tennessee Under
Ohio incredibly scored 97 points against Georgetown for a huge upset in the first round. That big number will force a very high total number for this match-up but Tennessee will be the best defensive team the Bobcats have seen all season long. Ohio has scored 80 plus in five of the last six games and the Bobcats do play at a faster pace but keep in mind two of those recent games went to overtime. Against a young and thin Georgetown team Ohio incredibly shot over 58 percent and also scored 20 points from the free throw line, while knocking in 13 three-point shots. Those numbers will not be duplicated against a Tennessee team that held opponents to only 64 points per game on 39 percent shooting. The Volunteers also have featured an excellent defense against long-range shooting, holding foes to only 29 percent from beyond the arc. In other instances against tougher competition, the Bobcats were held to very low scoring numbers, posting just 53 against Marshall and only 49 against Pittsburgh. A few years ago Tennessee was one of the highest scoring teams in the nation but this squad has adopted a great defensive identity this season. At their best the Volunteers have shown the ability to beat anyone as they have defeated both Kansas and Kentucky this season. The 'under' is actually 15-5-1 in the last 21 Tennessee games and although the Volunteers suffered a few questionable losses in the SEC season, it was rarely because of the defense. Tennessee and San Diego State both shot poorly in their tournament opener but there were 30 points from the line and the Volunteers had a lot of success from 3-point range to boost the scoring. Tennessee should control the tempo of this game and we'll catch great value on this total after the very high scoring round one upset for the Bobcats.
Sam Martin
Ohio University at Tennessee
Prediction: Tennessee
Were fading the Bobcats after their huge upset win over Georgetown on Saturday. This would have been a premium selection, but we were hoping for a pointspread of around 5-6 points. Still, there is value on Tennessee here, as Ohio U is not only in an obvious letdown spot, but with us following Ohio U all year, we know that the Bobcats literally played their version of a perfect game on Thursday. Tennessee knows they have to challenge Ohio U's shots, and as long as they don?t fall asleep on defense, the Volunteers should win this one going away. 5* Play on Tennessee.
Tom Freese
Wake Forest at Kentucky
Prediction: Kentucky
Wake Forest is 19-9. Forward Al-Faroug scores 15.8 points and 10.8 rebounds a game. Guard Ishmael Smith scores 13.5 points a game. Guard C.J. Harris scores 9.9 points a game. L.D. Williams scores 8.8 points a game. The Demon Deacons score 73.2 points game. Wake Forest is 7-24 ATS their last 31 neutral site games and they are 1-9 ATS their last 10 Big Dance games. Kentucky is 29-2 this year Guard John Wall scores 16.9 points and 6.5 assists a game. Forward DeMarcus Cousins scores 15 points and 10 rebounds a game.Forward Patrick Patterson 14.9 points and 7.3 rebounds a game. Guard Eric Bledsoe scores 11.4 points a game. Kentucky is 4-0 ATS their last 4 Big Dance Games and they are 6-1 ATS on Saturday. PLAY ON KENTUCKY -
VEGAS EXPERTS
Washington at New Mexico
Upset alert! Lower seeded team favored and you can probably guess what that means. We played against New Mexico on Thursday and it appeared as if the Lobos couldn't wait for the game to end once they built a lead. Had the kid for Montana who went for 42 in the Big Sky Championship been able to hit ANYTHING, the Grizzlies would have advanced. UNM was never really "in the money" while Washington made an outstanding comeback against Marquette, shooting 54.5%. After underachieving for most of the year, UW has won eight straight, covering seven of those games. They have shot 50% or better in five of those games.
Play on: Washington
Charlie Scott
Saint Marys CA vs. Villanova
Play: Under 154
St Marys might have been cinderella Thursday, but this isn't a Disney movie. In the NCAA Tourney talent wins ! St Marys played well and got all the breaks Thursday vs an over achieving Richmond team. I do expect St Marys to slow down the pace on offense and struggle shooting from outside today vs quick Villanova defenders.
Dave Price
1 Unit on K-State -4.5
Here's the key: BYU relies heavily on the 3-point shot, but K-State is 7-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season, defeating these teams by an average score of 77.4 to 68.2. BYU's Fredette is a good guard, but he will be neutralized by K-State's standout backcourt tandem of Clemente and Pullen. I just can't see Frank Martin letting Fredette beat them today. We'll lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on UNI/Kansas UNDER 127
Northern Iowa is clearly overmatched here, but you won't find a team in the tournament that plays harder, especially at the defensive end. The Panthers rank No. 2 in the nation in scoring defense, only allowing 54.6 ppg. Plus, Northern Iowa knows it can't afford to get into a track meet with Kansas offensively. Expect the Panthers to slow this game down as much as possible to give themselves a fighting chance. At the end of the day, I don't see UNI putting many points on the board, but the pace should keep Kansas from exploding as well. UNI is 10-1 UNDER when playing away from home versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing 115.8 points in these games. Bet the Under.