Larry Ness
Tennessee -8 vs Ohio
The Bobcats won their final regular season game to finish just 7-9 in MAC play this year. However, they then won four straight games in the MAC tourney to earn the school's 12th NCAA bid (first since 2005). John Groce was assistant head coach at Ohio St under Thad Matta but took a "step down" in taking the head coaching job at Athens prior to the 2008-09 season. He was known as a big-time recruiter and his first recruiting class at Ohio produced Indiana transfer Bassett (17.4-3.2-3.5) plus freshman guards Cooper (13.4-5.3-5.9) and Kinney (9.7) plus 6-8 freshman big man Keely (5.5-4.4). Groce not only delivered the school's 12th NCAA berth in just his second season but Ohio's 14-point win over No. 3 Georgetown on Thursday was the first-ever double-digit win by a 14-seed, as well as Ohio's first NCAA win since 1983. Bassett led the way with 32 points and is now averaging 29.6 PPG in Ohio's last fives games (MAC tourney and 1st NCAA game). His backcourt partner Cooper has added 23 points vs Akron in the MAC title game and another 23 points vs Georgetown. The 6-7 Washington (11.2-5.3) has been the team's best inside player all season and in these last five games as well, averaging 14.4 PPG and 7.0 boards. However, the Bobcats are up against it vs the Vols. Bruce Pearl has led his Vols into the Big Dance in all five of his seasons at Knoxville and now looks for his third Sweet 16 trip. The 6-9 Chism (12.4.7.0) plus Tennessee's two 6-7 swingmen, Hopson (12.4-3.4) and Prince (9.4-3.8-2.9), will be very tough matchups for the Bobcats. Tennessee also has a solid group of guards in Maze (9.6-3.0 APG), Tatum (7.2) and Goins (5.4), with both Maze and Goins notching 15 points apiece in the Vols' tough three-point win over SDSU. The Aztecs were a tough opponent and one shouldn't think that Tennessee's three-point win was a disappointment. The Bobcats are coming off arguably the school's biggest-ever win and now try to join Cleveland State in 1986 and Chattanooga in '97 as the only No. 14 seeds to reach the Sweet 16 since the advent of the 64-team field in 1985. For that to happen, they'll have to get past a Tennessee team which owns wins over both Kansas and Kentucky this year. I 'love' my Bobcats but this is NOT a good spot for them. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +1.11 over DALLAS
It’s hard to understand how the Sens went from being near flawless before the break to its current form of seven losses in eight games. The offense has disappeared, the goaltending has been poor and the spirit and determination they showed earlier has also been lost. However, they showed a bit of life in its last game when they came back from a 4-0 deficit to make it 4-3 before losing 6-3. When they went on that 11-game winning streak back in mid-January, it started after a 6-1 loss in Atlanta and this is a similar situation. Perhaps that game woke them up, as they did show a lot of life in the third and hopefully that’ll carry over here. The Stars have been tough at home all year but this team cannot be trusted as a favorite. Furthermore, the puck-line says Ottawa, as the Stars are -½ +1.40 while the ice cold Sens are taking back a half puck and laying –1.52. Look for the Sens to snap out of it here. The puck line says so. Play: Ottawa +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +1.28 over Buffalo
The Panthers should be coming off a win over the red-hot Coyotes after Phoenix scored very late to tie it on perhaps the flukiest goal of the season. Subsequently the Coyotes won in OT but give credit to the Panthers, as they took a 3-0 lead into the third. Florida is not an easy team to beat. They’re likely the most undervalued team in the league because nobody watches them and less people wager on them. The Panthers have picked up points in five of its last seven contests and that includes wins over Philly, San Jose and that aforementioned OT loss to the Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Sabres only have two wins in its last 12 games on the road. They’re losing to every good team they play and while perception is that the Panthers belong in the lower echelon of clubs, that’s not accurate. They’re a good team that has run into a lot of bad luck this year and its chances of winning here as probably better than the Sabres chances. Overlay. Play: Florida +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
DUNKEL INDEX
Boston at Dallas
The Celtics look to build on their 8-3-2 ATS record in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 1 to 4 1/2 points. Boston is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has Dallas favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+4)
Game 501-502: Chicago at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 111.297; Philadelphia 116.097
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 5; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-4); Over
Game 503-504: Toronto at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.516; New Jersey 114.012
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 3 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 4 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+4 1/2); Over
Game 505-506: Charlotte at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 118.098; Miami 123.001
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5; 179
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6; 182
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+6); Under
Game 507-508: Golden State at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 114.842; Memphis 120.609
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6; 235
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 11; 230 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+11); Over
Game 509-510: New Orleans at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.769; Utah 121.800
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 8; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 10 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+10 1/2); Under
Game 511-512: Milwaukee at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.944; Denver 128.495
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 11 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10); Over
Game 513-514: Boston at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 120.844; Dallas 121.373
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+4); Over
NCAAB
Old Dominion vs. Baylor
The Bears look to take advantage of an ODU team that is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 neutral site games. Baylor is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-4)
Game 515-516: St. Mary's (CA) vs. Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 64.472; Villanova 69.422
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 5
Vegas Line: Villanova by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-4 1/2)
Game 517-518: Ohio vs. Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 65.289; Tennessee 66.815
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+8 1/2)
Game 519-520: Old Dominion vs. Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 66.967; Baylor 72.233
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Baylor by 4
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-4)
Game 521-522: Wake Forest vs. Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 65.653; Kentucky 72.682
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+9 1/2)
Game 523-524: BYU vs. Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 71.440; Kansas State 73.783
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 5
Dunkel Pick: BYU (+5)
Game 525-526: Northern Iowa vs. Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 66.982; Kansas 78.492
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 12
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+12)
Game 527-528: Murray State vs. Butler
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 62.824; Butler 70.268
Dunkel Line: Butler by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-4 1/2)
Game 529-530: Washington vs. New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 70.778; New Mexico 67.246
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1 1/2)
Game 531-532: North Carolina at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 63.098; Mississippi State 71.047
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 8
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-7 1/2)
Game 533-534: NC State at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 67.331; UAB 65.650
Dunkel Line: NC State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: UAB by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+5 1/2)
Game 535-536: Jacksonville at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 54.986; Texas Tech 62.469
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+8 1/2)
NHL
Chicago at Phoenix
The Blackhawks look to build on their 6-2 record in the last 8 meetings between the two teams. Chicago is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+105)
Game 1-2: Carolina at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.427; Pittsburgh 12.964
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-220); Under
Game 3-4: Ottawa at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.817; Dallas 10.635
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+105); Over
Game 5-6: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.897; Atlanta 10.744
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Under
Game 7-8: Buffalo at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.834; Florida 11.717
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-140); Over
Game 9-10: Montreal at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.300; Toronto 12.840
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-110); Over
Game 11-12: St. Louis at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.662; New Jersey 11.492
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+145); Under
Game 13-14: Washington at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.118; Tampa Bay 11.085
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-210); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-210); Over
Game 15-16: Columbus at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.542; Nashville 11.199
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+180); Over
Game 17-18: Chicago at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.530; Phoenix 12.478
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+105); Under
Game 19-20: Detroit at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.806; Vancouver 12.743
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-150); Under
Game 21-22: NY Islanders at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.143; Los Angeles 12.327
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-210); Over
Wunderdog
North Carolina vs. Mississippi St
Play: North Carolina +7½
The Tar Heels are not used to the NIT, but with a talented youthful team, it isn't a bad spot for them to get some experieince, and an 8 point win over a talented William & Mary team that beat Wake Forest this season, shows they have come to play, not go through the motions. The Bulldogs were shunned by the NCAA tournament committee and they are not happy to be here. They played a lackluster game vs Jackson State, but won on pure talent alone. This one won't come as easy. The Tar Heels have owned the SEC, where they are a perfect 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 encounters, and overall 43-19 ATS in non-conference games. The Bulldogs might squeeze out a win here, but the Heels are capable, and certainly are the odds on favorite to get out of this one, inside a big number. I'll go with North Carolina here.
Tony George
Butler -4.5 vs Murray St.
I like to go against teams off an upset win ANYTIME and Murray State pulled the biggest on Thursday. Vandy was overrated but as the rest of you, I had them in my bracket none the less, but Murray St will have issues matrching up here against a well coached Butler team who is solid from head to toe. Both these teams play excellent defense and the numbers and stats look even, so we go to strength of schedule and also the last game, and Butler looked as good as anyone on Thursday destroying a good UTEP team by 18 points. I lean towards Butler today to bring Murray State back to reality, tough to beat good teams back to back as a dog in this tourney from a conference smaller than even a mid-major. Butler deeper on the bench as well.
THE PREZ
BYU vs Kansas State
The Kansas State Wildcats were actually a darkhorse candidate for a one-seed in this tournament before losing their last two regular season games, and while we feel that the BYU Cougars are an underrated team, we think that Kansas State is too tough coming out of the Big 12 and should win handily.
The Wildcats are 30-5, with three of the losses coming vs. top-ranked Kansas and the other two coming in letdown spots, with both occurring a few days after Kansas State faced top-ranked teams. They were also obe of the few high seeds to have safe wins on the first day of the tourney as they beat North Texas 82-62.
To give you an idea of just how talented Kansas State is, they are ranked seventh in the country overall in the Pomeroy Ratings! They rank 13 in offensive efficiency, thanks to ranking fifth in offensive rebound percentage, and they also rank 17 in defensive efficiency, thanks to forcing turnovers on an excellent 23.7 percent of opponents' possessions.
Now we feel that the Mountain West is the most underrated conference in the country, and we thought BYU had a good chance of advancing deep in this tournament before the selections were announced. However, they could not have gotten a worse second round matchup here, as not only do the Wildcats have better athletes, but they are one of the few tournament teams that can kill the Cougars on the offensive boards.
Look for those second-chance points to add up quickly as Kansas State wins this game by about 10 points.
Pick: Kansas State -4
LT PROFITS
New Mexico vs Washington
The third seeded New Mexico Lobos appear to be getting absolutely no respect here, being underdogs vs. the Washington Huskies, an 11-seed out of the worst of the major conferences in the country.
This line seems severely skewed by the fact that Washington has won eight straight games, but seven of those wins came vs. the Pac-10 and their opening round win over Marquette loses its luster when you look at how poorly the other mid-level Big East teams have done in this NCAA Tournament. Also, that Marquette game came right down to the wire and could have gone either way, and we feel that this New Mexico team is much better than the Golden Eagles are.
This line suggests that the Lobos are the least appreciated 30-4 team in the country, but we feel that their three-seed is well deserved. We have been saying all along that the Mountain West is the most underrated conference in the country, and this seems like the perfect opportunity for the upstart conference to prove itself.
In fact, in our opinion the Mountain West was stronger than the Pac-10 this year, and it is no fluke that the MWC got four teams in the tourney and the Pac-10 only got two in. This will also not be the first time that New Mexico has faced a Pac-10 team this season, as they beat Californian by eight points early in the year, They also own a nice non-conference win over Texas A&M in Texas, further validating their record.
The bottom line here is that New Mexico is the better team from the better conference, so we will gladly take advantage of this skewed line.
Pick: New Mexico +2