Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday March, 24

Marc Lawrence

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

Reports from La La land say the Clippers have had their fill of head coach Vinny Del Negro and their play on the court confirms it. Meanwhile Los Angeles brings a 7-12 SU and 5-14 ATS mark in its last 19 games in to this contest, including 1-8 ATS in its last nine on their home court. With visiting Memphis looking to avenge a 98-91 loss in their their most recent meeting in this series two months ago, and standing 3-1 ATS in games against foes off a SU favorites loss this campaign, look for the Clippers woes to continue here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Memphis.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: New York Rangers

The Rangers have won 22 of 29 vs losing teams and are 8-2 in road games when the total is 5.5. They have won 4 of the last 5 here as the visitor has won all 3 in the series this season. Toronto is 7-21 vs winning teams including 2-11 in the 2nd half in that role. They are 3-7 in March and catch a Rangers team off a tough home loss last night. Look for the Rangers to bounce back and win this one.

Dave Cokin

Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Memphis Grizzlies

The season long trends favor the Clippers, but that's a team I want no part of right now. Aside from Chris Paul, the rest of the squad is on tilt. The defense has been horrible and they can't shoot free throws. Memphis is the better team presently and I like the Grizzlies to capture the road win.

Jim Feist

Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Saturday games and face an LA Clipper team where there are rumblings in the clubhouse that they are not happy with coach Vinny Del Negro. They are certainly playing like an unhappy team, on a 0-3 SU/ATS run as well as 1-8 ATS the last 9 games. The Clippers are also 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games. Play the Memphis Grizzlies.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Florida/ Louisville Over 131: Both of these teams played ugly low scoring games on Thursday, but that will not be the case here. Back in the regular season when the Cardinals played an uptempo team like Marquette they really got out an ran with them and 155 points were scored in that game. That is actually Louisville kind of game and Pitino said so afterwards. They need to push the ball to be effective and I feel they will have to do that here, plus I don't expect Florida to let the pace of this one slow down anyway. The Gators are a high scoring team as they have averaged 76.1 ppg on 46.3% shooting, plus they also take alot of threes and hit those shots at a 38% clip. Louisville is playing great defense right now as they have allowed just 51.2 ppg in their last 5 games and they have allowed 54.6 ppg on neutral courts this year, but I feel this Florida team has just too many weapons for them to stoip here, especially with little prep time. Florida has played great defense in the Tourney (51 ppg), but 2 of their 3 games were vs Norfolk State and Virginia so those numbers are a bit misleading and if we go back a little further we find that Florida did allow 74 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games before the Big Dance. Louisville has scored just 61.7 ppg in the tourney, but two of those games were slow down game, while the one game they played vs a fast paced team (Davidson) they were able to put up 69 points. This will NOT be a slow paced game. Louisville really likes to run and they will get their chance vs a Florida team that likes that pace as well. Look for a game in the 140's here.

3 UNIT PLAY

Ohio State -2.5 over Syracuse: Since the Loss of Melo I have been on the side of the Cuse, but not today. I think their season will come crashing down on them here. The Orange are the deepest team in the nation and they have gone 5-1 this year without Fab, but they did struggle to beat UNC Asheville in the opener, then they faced a KSU squad that found out at game time that they would be missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder (Samuels) and they still struggled with them before pulling a way late. And then they struggled again with with Wisconsin before winning late. They have had time to adjust to the loss of Melo, but they are still not a team that is playing very well right now and I feel it will catch up to them in this one. The Buckeyes are off a 15 point win over a very hot Cincinnati squad and to me that is more impressive than the 1 point win the Cuse had over Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have been rolling offensively as they have put up 76.8 ppg in their last 6 games and 77.8 ppg in the tourney and without Fab I don't feel the Orange will be able to stop the Buckeyes here. OSU is the play here as they are better at both ends of the court right now and the loss of Melo will finally hurt this Syracuse team in this one. It'll be close but OSU will pull away late by hitting their FT's.

2 UNIT PLAY

Syracuse/ Ohio State Over 134.5: The Buckeyes have averaged 76.3 ppg in the tourney and they have put up 72 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games overall. I feel they should be able to score plenty in this one vs a Melo-less Syracuse team. The Buckeyes did give up just 59 points in their opening tourney win, but they have allowed 66 points in each of their last 2 games and dating back to the regular season they have allowed 66 ppg in their last 8 games. The Orange miss Melo on the defensive end but on offense he was only producing 7.1 ppg, so he won't be missed that much at that end of the floor and Louisville has averaged 70.3 ppg in the tourney without him. Neither team will slow the pace here and with both teams being average on defense at the moment I will look for right around 140 points in this one.

Ben Burns

New York Islanders @ Tampa Bay Lightning
PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning

Yesterday's free play was an easy (5-1) winner with underdog Columbus. Today, we'll back a team which currently falls in the "pick'em" range.

I won with the Lightning last time out; they beat Edmonton 3-2. This should offer another excellent opportunity for a victory.

A look at the season series finds that the home team has won all three meetings. The Isles won each game at Long Island by an identical 5-1 score. However, the Lightning won 4-1 in the lone game here at Tampa. Going back further finds the Lightning at 13-6 the last 19 as a host in this series.

The Isles have actually won a couple in a row, most recently a 5-2 win at Toronto on Tuesday. However, the Leafs are terrible. Also, note that Isles are a dismal 8-17 (-6.6) the last 25 times that they played with three days off in between games.

Again looking at the series history and we find that the Lightning have been favored by a minimum of -135 (and as much as -230) each of the last 20 times that they were a host in this series. We're getting a much better price here and I feel that's providing fair value. Consider Tampa Bay

Jimmy Boyd

Toronto Raptors +13

The Raptors enter tonight's contest with some nice momentum following a 96-79 win over the Knicks, and they'll be lacking no motivation here after blowing a 12-point lead in Wednesday's 12-point loss to the Bulls.

The odds are in Toronto's favor here considering it is 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog, 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more and 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more and have defeated the Raptors by more than 13 points at home just once in the last 10 meetings.

The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. We'll take the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Louisville +105 over Florida

Nobody wants to believe the Cardinals are this good but they are. They have now won seven in a row, they won the Big East tournament, they just knocked off a #1 seed, yet they keep getting offered points. Not only did Louisville knock off Michigan State, they completely dominated them. They are on the exact same run that UConn went on last year en route to a National Championship. The Cardinals are so dialed in right now, especially on defense, where every basket by the opposition is a struggle. Speaking of defense and the comparison between these two, it’s significant to note that Louisville ranked second in field goal % while the Gators ranked 128th. In steals, the Cardinals ranked 7th while Florida ranked 180th. In 3-point FG percentage against and blocked shots, UL ranked 13th and 28th respectively while UF 166th and 158th. The Cardinals did all this with a tougher schedule than the Gators. Some will argue that the tournament wipes out the slate and is an entirely new season. If we buy that, Florida has had everything fall right into place. They beat an awful Virginia squad followed by a win over Norfolk State. The 10-point win over Marquette looks very sweet on paper but the Golden Eagles laid an egg on thatg day. They missed 22 layups and shot 29% from the field. This one is lined up incorrectly and we’ll take full advantage. Play: Louisville +105 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

OS ANGELES -½ +145 over Boston

Ever since Tim Thomas went politically whacko, he hasn’t been the same. Thomas refused to go to the White House and subsequently started making political statements on his Facebook page right in the middle of the season. Truth is, he really wasn’t that good to begin with. He caught fire for a couple years but his unorthodox style of flopping around and waving his legs and arms to stop pucks have caught up to him. Boston has lost five of seven with only wins over that span occurring against the Maple Leafs and in OT against Philly. In those five losses, the B’s allowed six goals against to Florida and Tampa Bay, five goals to Pittsburgh and four to the Capitals. On December 13th, when the Kings couldn’t buy a goal, they went into Boston, outshot the Bruins 41-13 and lost 3-0. They dominated them and as it turns out, it was one of the more misleading scores of the season. Now that Los Angeles is scoring goals at an above average rate and playing their best hockey of the year, it’s doubtful the Bruins will get in their way of its current six-game winning streak in which they’ve outscored the opposition 20-10. Play: Los Angeles -½ +145 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +101 over TAMPA BAY

Kudos to the Lightning for their 3-2 OT win over the Oilers on Thursday night. It was Tampa’s second win in its past eight games, as undeserved as it was. Tampa was outshot 36-21 overall, including a third period by 11-1. The Bolts may get up for games down the stretch against teams battling for a playoff spot but against the Islanders in a meaningless contest, chances are they won’t. The Bolts are weak defensively, including their goaltending and as a result, they are a bad risk to lay juice or pucks with. The Islanders have picked up points in four of their last five. Their only regulation loss over that stretch came against Philly (3-2). The Islanders are in much better form, they are injury free and their chances of winning this game appear to be better than the Bolts’ chances. Play: N.Y. Islanders +100 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh -½ +100 over OTTAWA

Back in mid-December and early January, when the Penguins were the walking wounded, they played the Senators twice and lost 5-1 and 6-4. A different team arrives in Canada’s capital on this day. The Penguins have to be licking their chops to play on CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada with the opportunity to redeem those losses and exhibit who really is boss. The Senators have one win in their past six games. They were whacked by the Canadiens last night 5-1. They’ve scored one goal or less in three straight and two goals or less in five straight. Suddenly the Senators are in danger of missing the playoffs, as they’re just two points ahead of both 8th and 9th place Washington and Buffalo. The Penguins have scored five goals or more in five of their past six games. It’s scary how this edition of the Penguins is so deep and talented. Jordan Staal is a great player. He’s the Pens third line center. They just keep coming at you and when you watch them play it’s like watching a 60-minute power play. When you consider the current state of both these clubs, one really has to wonder how the Sens will compete here. What makes this one so appealing aside from the cheap price is that the Pens have dropped two straight to Ottawa. It won’t be three. Play: Pittsburgh -½ +100 (Risking 2 units).

CRAIG DAVIS

Today's free play is on Ohio State. I've given the Buckeyes to you every game. First as a regular release and then every game after that as a free winner.

Vs. Loyola, Vs. Gonzaga, vs. Cincinnati, and today vs. Syracuse. Listen, you might think I'm crazy here, but why are the Buckeyes three-point favorites as a two-seed? Why did Syracuse get a 1-seed, yet the Buckeyes are favored?

Vegas sets the lines with an opinion in mind. This line tells me they believe it's going to be a good game, but Ohio State is better and should win. Free throw shooting (which has been a problem for every Thad Matta team I can ever think of) likely kept this line from being -5 or even -6.

OSU is playing much better than a lot of us thought, but they're actually playing like they were predicted to play at the beginning of the year when they beat Florida and Duke, etc.

When Sullinger and Thomas and Craft stay out of foul trouble, they are always competitive. Otherwise, it could be tough. OSU isn't as deep as Syracuse, even with Fab Melo missing, but I believe their first six is better overall than Syracuse's first six... and that's why I'm giving them to you again today as your free play of the evening.

2♦ OHIO STATE

MATT RIVERS

My gut tells me that Ohio State is the call in this meeting in Boston, as the Buckeyes have just enough on the perimeter (8 of 17 from downtown vs. Cincy) to make the Orangemen pay, and the Buckeyes definitely have enough on the interior with Sullinger and Thomas to make the Orange wish Fab Melo was clogging the middle.

Syracuse dodged the bullet versus Wisconsin, but tonight's Big Ten conference rep is a little better in all areas, and the Buckeyes will send the second # 1 seed home for the season as they advance to next weekend's round of four in New Orleans.

I am siding with the Buckeyes to squeeze the Orange.

3♦ OHIO STATE

CHRIS JORDAN

Golden State has won two this season's three meetings, including a 115-89 triumph earlier this month in Sacramento. Now the Kings head over to Oakland for their first road game since March 5, and the they're 4-20 on the road.

The Warriors embarrassed the Kings in that game earlier this month, when they blew them out with a short-handed lineup after they traded Monta Ellis and Ekpe Udoh. Apparently those two don't matter in this matchup, though, as the Kings have had problems with 5-foot-9 guard Nate Robinson. The scrappy point is averaging 16 points on 54.3 percent shooting in three games against the Kings. He's also firing 55.6 percent on three-pointers.

Golden State shot 50.5 percent in that game, and made 12 of 24 from beyond the arc, while committing a season-low seven turnovers in what was its most lopsided win of the season.

So in spite of being 1-5 in its last six games, I like Golden State to rebound against the one team it's been able to dominate. This is the right spot for the Warriors, as the Kings haven't won away from home since Feb. 22 in Washington. Their road mark is second-worst in the league.

Sacramento is in on ATS slides of 1-4 versus the Pacific Division and 0-4 against losing teams, while Golden State is in on ATS streaks of 5-0 in intra-division play, 4-1 against losing teams, 8-3 in intra-conference plays and 7-3 after a straight-up loss.

Lay the home chalk.

2♦ GOLDEN STATE

CHUCK O'BRIEN

Now on a 6-2 run with my complimentary plays after scoring the winner on the Under in the North Carolina/Ohio game last night. Tonight, while my top play is a college total, my free play is in the NBA, as I'm laying the road points in the nation's capital with the Atlanta Hawks to get it done over the Washington Wizards.

The Hawks have won nine of the last 10 meetings, including the two meetings this season - both in Atlanta - by an average margin of 16 points, covering both games. They're 7-3 ATS in those meetings, winning the nine games by an average margin of 11.3 points.

See my point? When Atlanta beats Washington, it does things by double digits, usually, and doesn't look back. And with the Hawks arriving on a two-game win streak after topping Cleveland and New Jersey down in the A-T-L, I don't see them losing this game.

The last time the Hawks were on the road they won by 16 in Cleveland. They're now on a 9-4 ATS overall, and make note the Wizards are mired in a 3-9 ATS slide at home.

Atlanta comes in on additional ATS runs of an impressive 9-2 when playing on the second of back-to-back nights, 6-1 when laying chalk on the road and 7-3 against Eastern Conference teams.

This one won't be close.

2♦ ATLANTA

JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday freebie is the Atlanta Hawks as the road favorite at Washington tonight.

Atlanta has a little bit of a spurt going on right now, as they are fresh off a win and cover last night against the Nets to improve to four wins in their last five games, and 9-4 against the spread their past thirteen contests.

The Hawks have been money this year when playing unrested, as they sport a 10-3 mark in that situation. I expect them to take care of business against a Washington team that owns a lowly 8-15 spread mark on their home hardwood this season.

Series numbers show the Hawks with a pair of wins and covers in this year's two meetings, as Atlanta is now 9-1 straight up the last ten times the clubs have met, covering in seven of those ten victories.

With that kind of domination it is hard to see the Hawks slipping up in this spot tonight. Go ahead and lay the small road wood with Atlanta, as they take care of business once again versus the Wizards.

4♦ ATLANTA