DOM CHAMBERS
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Memphis Grizzlies to cover against the L.A. Clippers.
This are not going well in Los Angeles and we are not talking about the Lakers.
There are reports that the Clippers have locker room problems as coach Vinny Del Negro has lost the locker room. The result has been a three-game losing streak.
Now the Clippers face the Memphis Grizzlies, who are also trying to snap as skid.
The Grizzlies’ problems are more about getting the pieces to fit properly. Zach Randolph has returned from injury, but has not gelled with the team. The Grizzlies are stressing defense, so look for an improvement in that area.
As for the Clippers, they are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games.
With two struggling teams, taking the points is very attractive.
2♦ GRIZZLIES
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Bucks -4
The Milwaukee Bucks are just rolling right now. This is a completely different team with Monte Ellis, and they're playing with the kind of confidence that makes me think they can beat anyone. They'll have no problem covering this small number against Indiana tonight.
The Bucks have won seven of their last eight while covering nine of their last 10 against the spread. This is a team you want to back right now as they continue playing their best basketball of the season. They're not in a big media market, so they stay under the radar.
The Pacers are 8-26 ATS in their last 34 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Milwaukee is 29-12 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks have scored 104-plus in eight of their last nine. Bet the Bucks Saturday.
Dave Price
Sacramento Kings +2.5
The Warriors, who have lost 5 of their last 6, are really struggling due to injuries and the Monta Ellis trade. The Kings, who have won 3 of 4, are playing better ball and will be hungry to avenge an embarrassing 115-89 loss to Golden State March 13. The Kings are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of less than 5.0 points. Also, the Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series.
Tony George
Louisville +1
Like Pitino and the Cards here who can slow it down and win like they did against Micgigan State and they can also keep pace with uptempo teams. Pitino a magician in the tourney, always has been. Florida counters with a team that lives and dies by the 3 point shot. Much like Missouri they are a guard oriented team that has to play well and hit shots at ahigh percentage. You also can die by relying on the 3 point shot. Louisville the Big East Champs versus a SEC team who lost out in big games against good teams all year. Taking the Cards to win this one, in a tight game.
Jeff Alexander
New Orleans Hornets +5
The Spurs only won by 2 points when they visited New Orleans in January and can't be trusted laying this many points here. The Spurs are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Hornets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. Plus, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Hornets.
Vegas Experts
Florida at Louisville
Play: Under
Both teams have gone Under in every NCAA Tournament game thus far. Louisville is playing incredible defense right now, holding five of the last seven opponents to 56 points or less. Looking back further, the Cardinals are 10-1 Under last 11 games. Florida has been even better in the tournament, allowing an average of just 51 points per game. This one stays Under the number.
Free NBA Release for 3/24: Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 (-105, 5Dimes) over the LA Clippers. The Clippers have won three straight over the Grizzlies, dating back to last year. Memphis should be hungry for revenge against a team that is currently disgruntled inside the locker room. LA enters todays game on another three game slide and they're just 3-6 in their last nine. They've not played well at home, as they are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games at the Staples Center. Memphis welcomed back Zach Randolph from a MCL injury and a 37 game absence about a week ago, but they've lost 3 of 4 since his return. That's not all too uncommon this year as many teams have had a hard time finding their rythem when welcoming back key players such as Randolph. Good example of this poor rythem were displayed earlier this year when the Knicks welcomed back Melo, and the Heat with Wade. The same can't be said about the Clippers. LA has not found much of a rythem at all since losing Chauncey Billups. They practically a lock for the playoffs this year until he fell to a torn achilles tendon back in February against the Magic. The Clips were 15-7 at the time, and have won only 11 of 25 games since. Statistically, the Grizzlies outperform the Clippers in shooting, defense, and from the bench. Memphis also finds themselves in the underdog role today, where they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when getting points. LA is just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. We'll side with the better team that will be out for revenge this afternoon. Bet the Grizzlies +2.5.
WUNDERDOG
Calgary at Dallas
Pick: Over 5
The Calgary Flames have gone south after a five-game winning streak. They have now dropped four straight, negating the benefits gained from the streak. The Flames through 30 games saw just two get extended beyond regulation, but since have seen 18 of their last 43 do so. Those fortunes have led this team to playing OVER the total on short-total numbers, as they have not played an UNDER to a 5 total since late February. After back-to-back shutouts, Dallas has sprung a leak, allowing 3.5 goals per game in their last four. These clubs have had the offense going in the last five meetings as none have stayed UNDER the total. Play the OVER in this one.
Teddy Covers
Toronto @ Chicago
PICK: Under 184
Chicago is an elite level defensive team. The Bulls rank #2 in the NBA in points allowed, #3 in field goal percentage allowed, and #6 in three point shooting percentage allowed. Playing without All Star point guard Derrick Rose, Chicago has slowed down their pace as well, reeling off four straight Unders over the past week. In their last four games, the Bulls have been held to 94 or less each time. Their opponent has been held to 82 or less in each of the last three.
Toronto used a very effective zone defense to hold the Knicks to 79 points last night on 38% shooting. Raptors head coach Dwane Casey has preached a defense-first mentality from the day he got hired; much like Tom Thibodeau in Chicago. The Raptors, like the Bulls, have been trending Under, cashing three straight Under tickets and five of their last seven. Playing on the second night of back-2-backs, there’s absolutely no reason to think Toronto is going to push the pace either.
Both the Raptors and the Bulls rank in the bottom third of the NBA in pace – these are not ‘quick shot’ teams. The two previous meetings this season have been low scoring slogs: a 77-64 Bulls win in January that stayed Under the total by 35 points and a 94-82 Bulls win earlier this week that also stayed Under the total by a comfortable margin. Toronto’s offense, in particular, hasn’t been able to solve Chicago’s defense, held to 25 points COMBINED in the two fourth quarters this year against the Bulls. Expect another low scoring affair here. Take the Under.
Andre Gomes
Grizzlies / Clippers Under 188
The Clippers continue to be on an impressive slump in both ways of the floor, but especially on the offense. The funny thing is that they continue to be offensive rebounding machines and therefore, they have extra possessions. In their last game in New Orleans, they had a 40-23 edge in offensive rebounding rates with 9-13 FG in offensive rebound plays. The problem is really their half court offense, their perimeter players with zero confidence on their shooting and even their P&R plays aren't working well anymore: LAC shot 3-14 FG in P&R Ball Handler and 9-28 FG in spot up plays in their last game. They have been averaging just 31% FG from 16-23 feet and 28% in 3pts shots in their last 5 games! For today, Mo Williams will be out and so, the Clippers will have one less shooter playing. Defensively, Jordan has been in constant foul trouble and it has been easy to score against them, as they are allowing 68% FG at the rim in their last 10 games and 70% FG in their last 5 games! Besides that, the Clippers have no offensive flow right now on their 2nd unit and Mo's absence won't help that at all.
On the other side, Memphis are also on a slump, with a 1-4 record on their last 5 games. Just like the Clippers, they have been struggling to have any offensive flow thanks to Zach's come back and for now he has only been able to have a good 1st half, but then he completely disappears in the 2nd half. Most distressing has been the Grizzlies sudden inability to defend. In the last five games the Grizzlies have given up on average 107.6 ppg on 48.3% FG shooting. This from the team that was the best in the league just two weeks ago in preventing teams from scoring 100 points a game! "We've got to (figure) out whether we want to play hard for 48 minutes or if we want to be a cool team," guard Tony Allen said. "We've got to come out and play aggressive all throughout the game." Against a slumping team of the Clippers, I expect an extra defensive effort of the Grizzlies to be enough to stop their opponents today.
Considering the slump of both offenses and the slow pace that this game will have, I came up with a totals projection of 185 points, low enough for me to take the Under in here.
Dr. Bob
Opinions/Leans
Ohio State (-3) over Syracuse
This is not a particularly good match up for Ohio State since the Buckeyes’ weakness is their 3-point shooting (33.3%) and the Syracuse zone forces teams to take more 3-pointers. Scoring inside against the Orange is easier without suspended Fab Melo patrolling the paint and Ohio State is a very efficient 2-point shooting team (53.6%) that will dominate the rebounding stats in this game, so the Buckeyes should be able to win this game even without good 3-point shooting. My ratings favor Ohio State by 3 ½ points (with a total of 136 ½ points) and the Buckeyes apply to a solid 37-14-2 ATS round 4 situation. I’ll lean with Ohio State minus the points.
Strong Opinion
Louisville (+1½) over Florida
This game comes down to Louisville’s defense, which is now the highest rated in the nation, against Florida’s offense, which is #3 in compensated efficiency (points per possession). I think the Cardinals will win that battle. Louisville’s defense is relatively better against better offensive teams while Florida’s offense is slightly worse, relatively, against better defensive teams. Louisville’s domination of Michigan State was certainly impressive and teams that win as an underdog of 4 points or more in the Sweet 16 are 19-3 ATS in their Elite 8 game. My ratings using all games would favor Florida by 2 points but using games for each team against NCAA Tournament caliber opposition would make this game a pick and my match-up analysis, which takes into account Louisville’s better defense against better offensive teams, favors the Cardinals by 2 points (with a total of 129 ½ points). Florida is playing better than any team so far in the NCAA Tournament but Louisville looks like a tough match up for the Gators. I’ll consider Louisville a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.
Saturday NBA Opinion
OVER (193) – Charlotte at NEW JERSEY
Charlotte has gone over the total in 5 consecutive games and the Bobcats have been higher scoring this season with D.J. Augustin and Corey Maggette in the lineup. My math model projects 197 total points and I don’t expect a lot of defensive effort from 2 bad teams that both played last night.