Will Rogers
Rangers vs. Canadiens
Pick: Rangers
The Montreal Canadiens opened the season with nine consecutive wins but an injury to their star netminder Carey Price has completely ruined the season. They've fallen out of contention for a post-season berth and I don't think they'll be able to keep up with a Rangers team that is looking to hold onto its second place in the Metropolitan Division.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous Meetings - The Habs have dominated this series in recent seasons and have held the Rangers to one goal over three consecutive wins. This looks like a superb opportunity for the Rangers to turn the momentum in the series though considering the Habitants current woes and I expect the visitors to make the most of this opportunity and really take it to the Canadiens tonight.
2. The Rangers' Recent Games - New York is coming off a pair of solid wins against Florida and Boston. Defenseman Keith Yandle set up a pair of power-play tallies in Wednesday's 5-2 win over Boston and the Rangers have now scored 14 through their last 20 games after some initial struggles on the man advantage. Goals should come easy for the Rangers tonight as the Habs will be without their star defenseman P.K. Subban (neck) for an eighth consecutive game.
3. X-Factor - Mike Condon will start in the blue paint for the Habs Saturday, but he has been anything but successful lately giving up 14 goals in his last four appearances. He's 2-4-1 with a 2.98 GAA in seven starts this month.
Teddy Davis
Jazz vs. Wolves
Play: Jazz -7
This may seem like a lot of points for the Jazz to lay on the road since Minnesota has covered 5 in a row. The Timberwolves are coming off a huge road win @ Washington last night in double OT. That really take a lot out of a team. The Jazz are still fighting for a playoff spot in the West and are coming off a tough loss @ Thunder but were on their 2nd of a back to back. Jazz will be more motivated here as this is their final game on the road trip and look to close it out with a win. Minnesota is 11-21 ATS this season when playing a team with a losing record.
Tony George
Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon
I had the Ducks Thursday as a Top Play and they cruised to a win over Duke. One thing you cannot replace is depth and the Ducks have it, and have 5 players on the bench that alone could be a 12 seed in this tourney.
Another thing you cannot replace in this tourney is a veteran, experienced team and OU has 4 players that have started and played together in over 100 games, not to mention the best player on the floor in Hield. Both teams are led by veteran head coaches who can flat out coach, and Dana Altman is a flat out stud, who remember put Creighton on the map for years before coming to Eugene.
This is going to be a great game, a tight game, but it is the depth and big man play I like in Oregon's favor, and I think their ability to shake things up inside and dominate the wing and low post will be the difference in this game. Both teams deserve a Final 4 and both teams are in the top 5 in the country but I am going with the team who players "Bigger" in this game and having added rebounds because of it equate to a win in a tight game.
Ray Monohan
Cavs vs. Knicks
Play: Cavs -8
The Cavaliers get set for a date in MSG against the Knicks and Cleveland holds a lot of value here. It's almost like Cleveland stops themselves these days. They come in off a horrible loss to the Nets, one of which they got frustrated at the beginning of the 4th quarter and let it get in their heads.
The Cavs continue to create drama for themselves, drama that is completely unnecessary. With all that said, this team is far too talented to let it affect them here. Lebron James and company will be ready and poised for this one on the national stage inside historic MSG.
Some trends to consider. Knicks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win, and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.The Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two.
Look for the Cavs to really come out here and play with heart, as they dominate the Knicks here with a very spirited purpose.
TJ Pemberton
Panthers vs. Lightning
Play: Lightning -130
Currently the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning have both played 74 games and are sitting with 91 points in the Eastern Conference. The Lightning have won three straight games and put up 7 goals last night against the Islanders where we I cashed with one of my premium selections. The Florida Panthers have a one game win streak going and beat Tampa Bay 5-2 back in January.
Tampa is at home tonight which is a big advantage to them. Expect the fans to be out in full force and this game will have a playoff atmosphere to it. The Panthers are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record and are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Tampa Bay. The Lightning are 6-1 in their last 7 Saturday games and the home team is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. Look for these trends to stay course tonight.
Stamkos has this team firing on all cylinders. I will be backing Tampa Bay tonight at home tonight. Fair price to lay (-130) with the home team.
Brandon Lee
Bulls vs. Magic
Play: Bulls -4
I really like this spot with Chicago as a small road favorite against the Magic. The Bulls are desperate for a win, as they are a full 2-games back of a playoff spot in the east. Chicago just lost a home-and-home set with the Knicks, but had won 3 straight prior. The Bulls could be without Pau Gasol (questionable), but Orlando could be without Victor Olidapo and Ehsan Ilyasova (both questionable). Keep in mind they are already without Nikola Vucevic and come in having lost 6 straight. Bulls also have the advantage here in rest, they had yesterday off, while the Magic played a contested game against division rival Miami. Orlando also finds themselves playing their 5th game in 7 days, making it that much harder on them to match the intensity of the Bulls tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Cavs vs. Knicks
Play: Cavs -7
Cleveland comes into this game off an ugly 95-104 loss at Brooklyn on Thursday and have now failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 7 games overall. I believe it has the Cavaliers showing some great value here on the road against the Knicks. Cleveland has lost back-to-back games just 3 times since December 8th. Needless to say we can expect a big effort here from the Cavaliers in this one and that should be all we need for them to cover.
New York comes into this game off back-to-back wins and covers as a dog against the Bulls, which is also helping this line. Chicago's defense offered up little to no resistance in those games, as the Knicks shot over 50% from the field in both contests. Prior to that they had gone 3 straight games at 40% or worse. Cleveland is holding opponents to just 44% shooting on the season and the defensive intensity will be there tonight.
You also have to factor in how much opposing teams get excited about playing in Madison Square Garden, especially elite stars like LeBron James. With all the negative talk surrounding James and the Cavs coming off a loss, I look for LeBron to come out with a statement performance in this one.
Knicks are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 home games after playing their previous game at home and just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games after playing a game as a home dog. New York is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Jack Jones
Jazz vs. Wolves
Play: Jazz -7
The Minnesota Timberwolves are in an awful spot tonight. They are coming off an upset road win over the Washington Wizards in double-overtime last night. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Utah Jazz had yesterday off and cannot afford a loss to the Timberwolves. They currently sit in 9th place in the Western Conference, tied with the 8th-place Dallas Mavericks, and a half-game behind the 7th-place Houston Rockets. It's safe to say that they'll be motivated for this one.
The Jazz have given themselves a chance to make the playoffs by playing their best basketball of the season over the last couple weeks. They have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They are as healthy as they've been all season as well.
Utah won 103-90 at home in its last meeting with Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 3-12 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season. The Jazz are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Timberwolves are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
ASA
Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Play: Oklahoma +2
We like the experience of Oklahoma here. They start 4 upperclassmen, including 3 seniors, who were in the Sweet 16 last season. This is the 4th NCAA tourney for the seniors. Oklahoma was considered by many to be the top team in the country until they hit a bit of a wall in mid February. They are now back in form winning 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming by 2-points to West Virginia. At one point during the Big 12 regular season Kansas coach Bill Self basically said that OU was a step above the rest of the conference. Getting points with the Sooners in this spot is definitely worth a take. Oregon was the top team in the Pac 12 which turned out to be a vastly overrated conference as only 1 of their 7 NCAA entries made it past the first weekend. They are favored here partly due to the fact they looked very good against Duke the other night, but let’s not forget the Devils were not the Devils of old – they finished tied for 5th in the ACC. Oklahoma has played the tougher schedule (4th in SOS to 38th for Ducks), shoots the ball better (19th eFG% to 54th for Ducks), and defends better (14th in defensive efficiency to 35th for Ducks) yet they are a dog here.
Wunderdog
Indiana @ Brooklyn
Pick: Indiana -5
The Indiana Pacers are a tale of two teams. Indiana has struggled against a team that is .500 or better where they own a woeful 6-14 SU mark in their last 20 against them. They have put themselves in playoff position at 38-33 with a 9-0 SU run against teams less than .500, and the Nets fit the bill tonight. Brooklyn has been one of the worst teams in the NBA at 20-51 on the season, and are just 3-9 in their last 12 overall. The god news for Indiana is the fact that just three of their remaining 11 games are against teams better than .500, so the way they have handled poor teams should propel them into the playoffs. Tonight they also fit a situation that is 234-168 ATS, and that has been 17-10 ATS this season as well. Play on Indiana.
Vegas Butcher
Oklahoma +2
Elite defense (#14 DefEff) and elite 3PT shooting (43%, 2nd best in the country) is what I believe will propel Oklahoma to victory in this one. Both teams have excellent offenses, but Oklahoma's D is just a tad better. Plus one major issue for the Ducks is their inability to defend the 3PT line, ranking 237th in that area. Oklahoma gets almost 40% of their points from 3's, and they should be able to exploit this advantage today. Finally, the Sooners are the ones that have the best player in the tourney in Buddy Hield. He'll take over this game if need be. I'll grab the points with a 'better' team from my perspective.
King Creole
Cavs / Knicks Under 201.5
No Kyrie Irving tonight for the Cavaliers (19.4 ppg) as they travel to the Big Apple to take on the Knicks. And it sure doesn't hurt us that this NEW YORK / CLEVELAND series has gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in the last six meetings since the start of the 2014/2015 season. Average OU line: 200.5 points… Average combined points: only 179.1! That's an average margin of -21.4 points per game. In EVERY single one of those six games, the most combined points between these two teams has ben only 184. This season's THREE earlier meetings totaled 175 points… 174 points… and 182 points. Wow…. UNDER-whelming!
CAVALIERS: 1-11 O/U away in a '1/1'REST situation (both teams ONE day of rest) versus a non-division conference opponent… 1-10 O/U after playing the Brooklyn Nets… 1-7 O/U as Saturday FAVORITES of -6 > points… and 1-6 O/U as favs 3 > points off a SU road favorite loss.
KNICKS: 0-5 O/U versus a .666 or greater non-division conference opponent THIS season… 0-6 O/U after scoring 100+ points in their last game… 3-13 O/U off an ATS win… a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in their last six home games… 0-5 O/U off a SU win… 0-4 O/U off a DOUBLE DIGIT win… 0-5 O/U playing on ONE day of REST… and 0-4 O/U on Saturdays.
Rob Vinciletti
Pacers vs. Nets
Play: Pacers -5
The Nets are off their biggest win of the season a 9 point win as a 10 point home dog to Cleveland. Now they are in serious bounce mode as Rested Conference road favorites like the Pacers that were home favorites of 5 or more are 100% straight up and ats vs an opponent like the Nets that covered by 14+ points and scored 90 or more as a +5 or more home dog in their last game. These road favorites with by an average 18 points per game. The Nets are 0-5 ats off a home win. The Pacers won here by 14 already this season and have won 9 of the last 10 vs losing teams. The Nets have lost 31 of 39 vs winning teams. Play on the Pacers.
Dave Price
Indiana Pacers -5
The Indian Pacers missed the playoffs by one game last year. They aren't going to let it happen again, and they currently sit in 7th place in the Eastern Conference. They'll take care of their business tonight against the Brooklyn Nets, who are in the ultimate letdown spot after beating the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last game. The Pacers are 2-0 against the Nets this season, winning by 7 at home and by 14 on the road. Indiana is 13-4 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season. The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Brooklyn.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -103 over N.Y. Islanders
OT included. The rope around the Islanders neck is getting tighter by the second. A near sure thing to make the playoffs about a month ago, the Islanders are in a battle with Detroit and Philadelphia for two Wild Card spots. One of those three teams is going to miss the playoffs and we doubt it’ll be Philadelphia. The Isles played last night in Tampa and got crushed, 7-4. In a fight for their playoff lives, the Islanders allowed 41 shots on net. The Islanders have two wins over their last nine games and they deserved none. One of those games was a miracle win over the Panthers in which the Islanders scored three times in the final six minutes of the third to turn a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 victory. The Isles other win over that span occurred against Ottawa this past Wednesday and that wasn’t pretty either. The Islanders racked up a mere 23 shots on net at home in a must win game against a team that is dead last in the NHL in shots on net allowed per game. The Islanders are a dumpster fire right now. They have mustered a mere 27 shots on net or less in 10 of their last 11 games. They have scored two or less in seven of those games. The pressure on the Isles grows with each passing loss and they have not responded well. In fact, they are showing no signs of snapping out of it and will now play their fourth game in six nights, their third game in four nights and the tail end of back-to-backs.
Carolina is likely going to miss the playoffs this year for one reason and one reason only; the shootout and OT. The ‘Canes 14 losses in extra time is the most in the league. They have one shootout win this entire year so it’s a complete farce that the NHL allows a skills contest to decide teams’ playoffs fate. Regardless, one could count on one hand the amount of games that the ‘Canes have not been in this year. Carolina continues to be one of the NHL’s biggest pests and undervalued teams. The Canes have quietly picked up points in eight of their last 10 games and they have had nothing but success against this visitor. In two games against the Islanders this year, Carolina is 2-0 while scoring nine times and that’s when the Islanders were relaxed and playing well. Motivation or lack thereof will not be an issue for the Hurricanes, as they will be jacked up here to make life miserable for the Islanders. The Hurricanes have Justin Faulk back, they’re healthy, they’re at home and they’re wrongly billed as the underdog here.
MONTREAL +130 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. On a scale of 1 to 100, the Canadiens market appeal right now is about 1. Montreal has turned what looked like a very promising campaign into a nightmare. Aside from being without P.K. Subban, Carey Price and several other regulars, Montreal’s motivation level is also in question. We can dig down deep here and search for reasons to back the Habs but that would take a long time because there aren’t any. Why play the Habs then? We’ll back the Habs at a price here because it’s not rocket science.
All we can say to anyone that believes the Rangers are a threat in the East this year is, "what planet are you from"? Pluto? Mars? Jupiter? The Rangers are not a threat. They made a boneheaded move at the trade deadline to get Eric Staal, a player that analysts suggested needed a change of scenery. Wrong. Staal played his best hockey (which wasn’t very good to begin with) in Carolina and has been a fraction of that player on Broadway. The Rangers continue to get every bounce their way to defy logic to an extreme extent. The Rangers were at it again on Wednesday in their 5-2 win over Boston in which they were outshot 41-24. The Rangers first goal should not have counted, as the puck went over the glass and into the mesh above before bouncing right back on Mats Zuccarello stick, where he buried it. Zdeno Chara let up on the play in anticipation of a whistle. Boston scored five minutes later but the goal was overturned on a Coaches challenge. The B’s also had another goal called back that was clearly in the net but it was inconclusive. The Rangers scored five times on 24 shots but once again played most of the game in their own end. That is just one game but it’s been the story of the Rangers’ entire season. New York gets outplayed, out-chanced and outshot almost every night but they have somehow managed to stay well above .500. We are the first to admit when we are wrong and we were wrong about the Rangers. We suggested that they were a fringe .500 team and that was wrong. We were wrong because we gave the Rangers too much credit. The Rangers are pure garbage that cannot keep winning hockey games based on the way they play this game and as long as we’re being offered a price against them, we are going to continue to fade them.
Columbus +175 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Predators have been playing at a high level all year and it has paid off, as they are firmly positioned to make the playoffs with a nine-point cushion as of today. The Preds struggled to win games earlier because Pekka Rinne struggled in goal for the first four months of the season. Most recently, however, Rinne is seemingly back to his old self, at least that’s what the media is suggesting, but we’re not buying that just yet. Rinne is coming off a 3-2 win over Vancouver. That was Vancouver’s only two goals in its last four games. The Preds do not give up a lot of quality scoring chances and that’s the only reason that Rinne’s numbers look better than they are recently. We are not questioning the talent level on the Preds, as they are a juggernaut collection of high caliber players but they are a big risk at this price with Rinne in goal. Aside from that, Nashville is just 4-3 over its past seven games with losses to Calgary, Vancouver and Washington and wins over Los Angeles, Edmonton, the Islanders and Vancouver. The Preds are usually a tough out at home and this one isn’t about fading them, as much as it is about playing value and letting the chips fall where they may.
Joonas Korpisalo gets this start in goal for the Jackets. That’s significant here because when Korpisalo plays, the Jackets have been one of the toughest outs in the league over the past month. With Korpisalo in goal, Columbus was won five of seven games since February 22. The Jackets only two losses over that span were both by scores of 2-1 so the Jackets could easily be on a 7-0 run over Korpisalo’s last seven starts. The Jackets lose games when Sergei Bobrovsky is in goal but they haven’t lost many lately when Korpisalo starts and that gives us an idea of the importance John Tortorella is putting on this game. Torts wants to win this one and it’s likely because he knows how badly ex-Pred, Seth Jones wants his team to put forth a strong effort. When Columbus plays to their capabilities, they have proven to be difficult to beat recently. We certainly like their chances to come up with a big effort here in support of their new teammate, who has made all the difference in the world. Price, situation and form dictates that the Jackets are very worthy of backing here. The Jackets may not win here but they have a great shot to do so and they offer up perhaps the best value on today's NHL menu.
St. Louis +135 over WASHINGTON
The Blues punched their ticket to the dance last night with an impressive 4-0 shutout victory over Vancouver. St. Louis was all over the hapless Canucks, outshooting them, 37-15. The Blues are going to the postseason for the fifth straight year. That comes as no real surprise, as they have become a regular season powerhouse over that span. St. Louis still has quite a bit to play for, as it jockeys for final playoff positioning. Right now, the Blues are tied with Dallas for the Central Division lead and first overall in the Western Conference with 97 points. Home ice is very key in the West, which will keep the Blue Notes motivated over the final two weeks of the season. The Blue Notes have not allowed a goal in three straight games and that shutout streak is another motivating factor that comes into play here.
The Capitals locked up home ice advantage throughout the playoffs after their 1-0 OT win over New Jersey last night. The Caps have been setting records left and right all season and playing hard as they go but now that the final hurdle has been cleared (which was a formality anyway), we still have to question what is motivating them. The Caps were built to go deep into the playoffs. The coaches and players know that a legit cup run is far more important than any regular season accolades. With literally nothing to play for, Washington figures to be more lackadaisical than they otherwise would be if they had something to play for. For the remainder of the regular season, Washington will not give the opposition their best shot. By contrast, the Caps will get every teams’ best shot and that first punch comes tonight from a strong Blues’ team that still has plenty on the line. Great price on what figures to be the much more motivated team.