Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 26,2011

Charlie Scott

Arizona vs. Connecticut
Play: Under 145

U Conn only has 2 primary scoring threats and brings a Big East toughness on defense & rebounding. I don't expect U CONN Coach Calhoun to make the same mistake as Duke and try to run with AZ. AZ Head Coach Miller played in the Big East and Coached at Xavier and knows in big games defense and half court possessions win. In Big Games look to go Under inflated totals.

Cajun Sports

New Jersey vs. Atlanta
Play: Over 185

New Jersey has seen their fortunes fall by the wayside as point guard Deron Williams’s wrist injury will keep him out of action until early or even possibly the middle of next week. New Jersey has lost four of their last five contests both straight up and against the number. Atlanta has not fared much better losers in four of their last five and eight of their last eleven. The combination of both teams playing bad is enough to give us pause and to stay away from the side action in this contest. We are only interested in the total especially with the oddsmakers giving us some decent value with the current number set at 185. The Nets are averaging 93.9 points per game on the highway this season while allowing opponents to drop 102.1 points per game on them. Atlanta is averaging 95.7 points per game at home this season on 46.6 percent shooting; their defense is allowing 96.8 points per game on 46.3 percent shooting from the field. Over their last five outings, the Hawks defense has been horrendous allowing the opposition to average 104.6 points per game on 51.9 percent shooting from the field. When the Hawks are coming off a home game that went Over the posted total and are now playing at home again in this price range they are 18-7-1 Over. If they are installed as a home favorite in that same situation the record is 16-6-1 Over their last 23 games. If Atlanta has gone Over the posted total in their last three games and are now playing in this price range they go Over at a rate of 10-2 in their next contest. If the Hawks are coming off a road loss a game in which it went Over the total and are now installed as a home favorite the total is a perfect 8-0 Over in their next game. If they are a conference home favorite, the record is 7-0 Over their last seven in that situation. If New Jersey went Under in their last game and now face Atlanta as an underdog the total record is 13-4 Over their last seventeen. If the Nets won ATS and went Under in their last game and now face Atlanta as an underdog the total record is 7-1 Over the last eight meetings in this situation. Both teams TPR Index point to an Over in tonight’s contest and the Math Model projects total points scored advantage of +8.38 points over the current total of 185 points. Play this one to sail Over the posted total on Saturday night in the ATL.

Rob Vinciletti

Iona vs. E Tennessee St
Play: Iona -135

While both teams have identical records here at 24-11. Iona is the better team from a stronger conference and has beaten better teams in Buffalo and Valparaiso to get here. They have won 12 of 18 vs winning teams and 5 of 6 tournament Semi finals games. East Tennessee St has lost 6 of 7 times as an underdog and 5 of 6 times vs teams who average 77 or more points per game. They are also 0-2 at home when the total is 145 to 150. Iona have better all around numbers. Lay the small number with Iona.

Marc Lawrence

New Jersey @ Atlanta
PICK: Atlanta

The Hawks return to their nest to host the Nets with revenge on Atlanta's mind from a seven-point loss suffered in their most recent meeting this season against New Jersey. That sets the table for tonight with the home team standing 7-1 ATS in this series and the Nets just 1-4 ATS in their last five travelers without rest. With the Hawks off an embarrassing 33-point home loss in its previous game on this court, we'll make a 1-unit play on Atlanta tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Indiana @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit

The Pacers are attempting to hold off Milwaukee and Charlotte for the final spot in the Eastern Conference standings, but it certainly doesn't help getting blasted at home by the Sacramento Kings. But that's exactly what happened last night. And now Indiana finds itself in a horrible team situation, playing in their second of back-to-back nights. The Pacers are 2-12 ATS when the second game is a road contest. They're also on a 3-11 ATS slide on the road when playing their third game in four nights, which is also the case in this one. The Pistons also played last night, but they're actually 3-2 SU when playing at home the night after a road contest. Detroit came up short last night in Cleveland, but they have played a better brand of basketball since center Greg Monroe was inserted into the starting lineup. Monroe and Tayshaun Prince make for a decent front line duo that I believe Indiana will struggle with tonight. Look for Detroit to grab the win and cover. I'm playing the Pistons.

Jim Feist

Raptors at Clippers
Pick: Raptors

Toronto has an uptempo offense and is rested and they face an LA Clipper team off a Friday night rivalry game with the Lakers. The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. the NBA Atlantic and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Clippers have had trouble defensively of late, giving up over 100 points in 7 of 8 games. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Play the Toronto Raptors!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -9.5

Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and with 2 full days to gear up, expect the Hawks to take it to a Nets squad that has lost 5 of its last 6 and is playing without a day of rest. The Hawks will draw added motivation from a loss at New Jersey the last time these teams faced off. The fact that this game is being played in Atlanta certainly bodes well for the Hawks. Consider that Atlanta has won 4 straight at home in this series with those wins coming by an average of 21.3 points. The Nets are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points overall. The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against the Nets. Lay the points.

Rocketman

Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Islanders
Play: Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia is a nice 23-13 on the road this year. Philadelphia is 15-1 overall vs NY Islanders the past 3 years including 7-1 at NY Islanders. Philadelphia is 7-2 last 9 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Philadelphia is 19-7 last 26 vs Atlantic. Philadelphia is 22-9 last 31 as a favorite of -110 to -150. Philadelphia is 17-8 last 25 road games. NY Islanders are 9-19 last 28 as an underdog of +110 to +150. NY Islanders are 17-55 last 72 games vs the Atlantic division. Philadelphia is 24-8-1 last 33 meetings at NY Islanders. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!

Jack Jones

Indiana Pacers +2.5

The Indiana Pacers still have a lot to play for, while the Detroit Pistons do not. Both teams suffered bad losses last night with Indiana falling to Sacramento and Detroit losing at Cleveland. I believe the Pacers are going to be the team to respond better tonight considering they currently sit in 8th place in the Eastern Conference Playoff standings, and this game is much more important for them.

"We can't relax," Danny Granger said. "Every night you're playing against a team that can beat you. This should be a lesson for us. ... You can't lose to a team that you should beat and at home, at this point in the season. It's a bad loss for us." Detroit has lost three straight and 14 of 19 overall. Indiana is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Pistons overall, so this has been a very good match-up for them. Take the Pacers Saturday.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Utah Jazz +6

The fact the Jazz have fallen 3 times to Dallas this season assures us they will be very hungry when they step on the floor tonight. Plus, Utah comes into this one with an added jolt of confidence after taking New Orleans down to the wire. The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. The Jazz, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Also, the home team is 23-6-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings and the Mavericks are 3-12-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Utah. Take the points.

Info Plays

3* Charlotte Bobcats +4.5

Reasons why Charlotte will cover:

1) Charlotte hasn't been playing well of late, but we believe that win at Boston last night will light a fire under this team, and with the way New York is struggling the Bobcats are showing great value at home as a 4.5-point underdog. No way should a team that has lost five straight and eight of nine be favored.

2) Charlotte is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, and are 22-9 ATS after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

3) New York is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, and are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Bulls/Bucks OVER 177.5

The last 4 meetings in this series have been very low scoring, but I believe odds makers have set the bar a little low here considering both of these teams played last night. When the legs are tired, defense is the first thing to go. These are 2 of the best defensive teams in the league, but I don't expect the clamps to be quite as tight with fatigued legs. Besides, both teams have found their stride offensively. The Bucks and Bulls have both hit the century mark in 3 of their last 4. The Over is 4-1 in the Bucks' last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. The Over is also 16-7-2 in the Bucks' last 25 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Over.

Scott Rickenbach

Iona @ East Tennessee State
PICK: East Tennessee State

At home this season, East Tennessee State held opponents to just 38% from the field. Their tough defense is going to spell trouble for an Iona team that has lost 3 of its last 4 ATS against teams that allow an average of 64 points or less per game. Note that Iona allows an average of 72 points per game on the road this season while East Tennessee State allows an average of just 62 points per game at home this season. While it is true that Iona averages 79 points per game this season, note that East Tennessee State is on an amazing long-term run of 16-5 ATS when they face a team (after the midway point of the season) that is averaging 77 points or more per game. Remember, when it’s late in the season (or the post-season) defense becomes even more of a factor. We look for East Tennessee State to be successful in slowing down Iona and frustrating their playmakers on offense. ETSU is 13-1 at home this season and they are getting points here and the line has moved in our favor. We’ll gladly fade an Iona team that is not known for it’s defense and that is just 6-10 straight-up in its last 16 tournament games! Consider a small play on East Tennessee State plus the points in Saturday’s CIT action!

Ben Burns

New York Rangers @ Boston Bruins
PICK: Boston Bruins

The Rangers had their 5-game winning streak snapped last time out, falling 2-1 (via the shootout) to Ottawa. They'd previously won seven of eight. While they've mostly taken care of business against bad teams, note that the Rangers are only 18-23 (-4.4) against teams with a winning record. With so many recent victories, even after one loss, they shouldn't be that "desperate," particularly as they still got a point in that game.

While the Rangers are off a potentially deflating loss, he Bruins are heating up. After a sub-par stretch, they've won their last two games by a combined score of 11-1, most recently hammering Montreal by a score of 7-0.

Boston goalie Tim Thomas noted: "That's the way we wish we could play every night. It should be a big confidence booster for us going forward. It's the blueprint of the type of game we want to play."

With the Bruins at 8-1 the last nine times that they were off a shutout victory, consider backing suddenly "surging" Boston.