Sam Martin
New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats
Not sure why the linesmakers are still giving so much credit to the Knicks, who lost again last night - this time at home against a bad Milwaukee team despite being listed as a sizable 6.5-point favorite. That was the eight loss in New York's last nine games, and they once again are listed as the favorite here on the road tonight. Charlotte is much better here on their home floor than people realize, and coming off an outright win against Boston as a 13-point dog they'll have an extra boost of confidence here tonight. Bobcats find a way to win this one outright! 5* Play on Charlotte.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Rangers +156 over BOSTON
1:00 PM EST. The Bruins are coming off that 7-0 dismantling of the Habs. That’s nice, but it’s no secret that Montreal has grossly overachieved all season long and if Carey Price isn’t bailing them out they have no shot of beating anyone. Boston wanted that game as badly as any game they’ve wanted all season long. The headlines in Boston the very next day was front page news that read” MESSAGE SENT”. Now Boston has a five-point lead over Montreal atop the division with two games in hand. This is a letdown spot and it’s also worth noting that Boston has been better on the road all season long and so have the Rangers. New York is always tough to play against and a win here puts them that much closer to locking up a playoff berth. The Rangers sit just five points ahead of the ninth place Canes and just two points ahead of the Sabres. Carolina has a game in hand on N.Y. so this is the game that the Rangers can create some separation with. Recent history reveals that nine of the last 10 games these two have played against one another have been decided by one goal with the Rangers winning six of 10. That alone makes them very worthy of taking back a tag like the one offered here. Play: N.Y. Rangers +156 (Risking 2 units). Play: N.Y. Rangers +156 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. ISLANDERS +144 over Philadelphia
The Islanders are coming off a 2-1 OT loss to the Thrashers but they were returning home from a 13-day road trip and often teams are flat under those circumstances. They won’t be flat here. Prior to that journey, the Islanders had lost just four games in regulation over its last 21 games and they continue to be grossly undervalued. The Flyers are coming off a 2-1 OT loss to the Pens. That score is flattering to Philly, as Pitt dominated play and outshot the Flyers 31-20 in a game where Pitt had way more scoring chances but couldn’t find the back of the net. Philadelphia has lost four of its past six games with only wins over that stretch coming against Florida and Dallas, the latter in OT. Philly is not going good. They’ve played one of the easiest schedules over the past month and they’re losing to just about every quality opponent they meet while barely defeating mediocre one’s. Win, lose or draw here, you’re not going to find better value on the board today than the Islanders, a team that’s been surging for two months and that has a better chance of winning than these guests. Play: N.Y. Islanders +144 (Risking 2 units).
Dallas +134 over NASHVILLE
This is a definite overlay. Dallas begins a crucial and season defining five-game trip that will decide their playoff fate. They sit a single point behind the Ducks for the final playoff spot and Anaheim is a +175 pooch in Chicago tonight. Stars can leapfrog the Ducks tonight and this is a good opportunity to do so. Dallas is 4-0-1 in its last five road games. They’ve defeated Nashville in three of the four games played this season and Nashville remains a risky proposition when spotting juice. The Preds are coming off a deceiving 5-4 win over Anaheim. In that game the Ducks started Jonas Hiller after Hiller was on the rack for two months suffering from vertigo. Hiller allowed three goals in nine shots in the game’s first 11 minutes and was yanked. The Preds hung on for a 5-4 win but it was less than impressive. That’s not to say the Preds are lucky or not very good. They work hard and they’re as determined as any. However, they’re also much more appealing as a dog because of their lack of offense. The Preds are always in great danger of losing if they allow three goals because they scratch and claw to score twice and rarely score more, not exactly a wise team to be laying juice with. The Stars will 100% be ready to go here, as they are down to the short strokes and at this price they’re very worthy of a wager. Play: Dallas +134 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Connecticut –2½ over Arizona
Wins don’t get much more impressive than the Wildcats victory over Duke. Once the Blue Devils presented Arizona an opening, the ‘Cats exploded and put the Dukies away. The Wildcats have now defeated two teams that at one point were both ranked #1 in the country in the Longhorns and the Blue Devils. While we can’t discard what Arizona has done, we must be careful in overvaluing them right now. For example, Derrick Williams looked like a MONSTER in the Duke game, but again, we must be conscience of the impulse buy. Williams was poorly scouted by Duke. The Blue Devils did not attack him enough on defense (he plays little to none) and they allowed him to set up for wide-open shots. Williams is a great shooter when he is allowed to set up but UConn will not allow that to happen. Williams remains dangerous but he rarely passes the pumpkin and he’s not going to be a one-man wrecking crew against a Jim Calhoun coached team. For much of the season, Arizona has struggled to defend its basket in close, a weakness that was particularly apparent in their narrow wins over Memphis and Texas in their first two tournament games. It doesn't take too much imagination to envision Kemba Walker penetrating into the teeth of this defense and wreaking his usual havoc, drawing fouls, dishing assists and running up the score. Then there’s Alex Oriakhi and Jeremy Lamb to compliment Walker. In the post-season, Lamb has made 60 percent of his 2’s and 57 percent of his 3’s. Walker, plus Lamb, with Oriakhi cleaning up the misses is almost unfair. Over its past eight games, UConn has quite simply been better than any team they've come across and chances are they’ll be much better than a Wildcats club that peaked against Duke because the Blue Devils allowed it. It also doesn’t hurt that the Huskies are now 11-0 on a neutral floor this season. Play: Connecticut -2½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Butler +4 over Florida Pinnacle
What we’ve learned about Butler these past few tourneys, it is to never count them out and it is rarely a good idea to be spotting them points. Once again, we’re offered points in a game with a low total of 132 posted and once again that makes the Bulldogs very appealing. The Gators are coming off an OT win over BYU in a game in which the Cougars looked awful. The “Jimmer” had 32 points but it was an ugly 32, as he went 3-15 from three-point range and had just two boards. Nobody else picked up the slack and yet they somehow managed to force OT in a game they should’ve been blown away in. Florida looked like Florida -- moments of greatness followed by stretches of missed opportunities. The Gators took far too many 3s (as always), missed 12 of 22 free throws (typical) and had 10 first-half turnovers. Florida plays great defense but so did Wisconsin and the Bulldogs built a 20-point lead on them. Butler is now 16-3 in March over the past three seasons, they’ve won 12 in a row and Matt Howard, Zach Hahn, Shelvin Mack, Ronald Nored, Andrew Smith and Shawn Vanzant have all been through this before with last year’s run to the Championship game. The Bulldogs are a tremendous defensive team that seldom allows the opposition to get too far away. They don’t panic and they can detect weakness. Butler finds ways to win and this Gators bunch will not show them anything that is likely to change that. Play: Butler +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Phil Davis -110 over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
(by 3 round decision)
We have been selling the Jon Jones kool-aid from day one and last week he became the youngest champion in UFC history. There is no one in the foreseeable future that can come even close to dethroning him with the exception of Phil Davis. Davis might not be as dynamic as Jones but both of them share an "it" factor that is undeniable. Davis has easily cut through his competition in the UFC with four consecutive wins against the likes of Stann, Gustafsson, Wallace and Boetsch. He has never been beaten in his MMA career and only three of his eight fights have gone the distance. "Little Nog" sports an illustrious career record of 19-4 but his UFC outings have left a lot to be desired. He demolished Luiz Cane in his debut but then barely got by Jason Brilz and then lost to Ryan Bader. What do the latter two fighters have in common? Wrestling. Long time fans of the sport will back him with the nostalgia of his PRIDE days but the wear and tear from those wars will give way to a new breed of mixed martial artist. Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis will continue his meteoric rise and use Nogueira as a stepping stone towards a light-heavyweight title shot. He is faster, stronger and a wrestling machine that matches up well against a much slower opponent that has always struggled to stop a takedown. It is hard to imagine him losing this fight by any outcome but it is never a good idea to lay 3-1. The better play is to take nearly even money on "Mr. Wonderful" winning over the distance. He will put on a wrestling clinic but not take too many chances in what is likely to be an easy unanimous decision victory. Play: Davis (by 3 round decision) –110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Anthony Johnson (by TKO/KO) +205 over Dan Hardy
Anthony Johnson was on his own rapid rise up the ranks until he was derailed by Josh Koscheck at UFC 106. He returns to the Octagon after a layoff of over a year with a meniscus tear but there are a number of reasons to get behind him in this one. First off, in the past he has always struggled to cut weight but after dropping 60 pounds in eight weeks he made his weight and looked no worse for wear on the scale. He seems very eager to get back to work and Dan Hardy is the perfect opponent for him to face in his first fight off the shelf. Hardy has lost back-to-back fights and his most recent outing was an ugly first round knockout to Carlos Condit. A devastating loss of that nature can be contagious, especially when the hands he is facing this time are heavier and faster. This bout will be a stand-up war and Johnson sports a huge edge in reach with an advantage likely to be around four inches. Reach is the most important stat in any fight and when it is between two guys who love to throw bombs it becomes even more paramount. Expect Johnson to come out firing, testing Hardy's jaw early and possibly making our wager a winner before the end of the first round. Play: Johnson (by TKO/KO) +205 (Risking 2 units).
Sean McCorkle +175 over Christian Morecraft
This play is based solely on value. There is no way that McCorkle should be a sizeable underdog to Morecraft. Most are probably looking to their matches against their common opponent in Stefan Struve and trying to figure out who fared better. Sure Morecraft inflicted more damage and came much closer to besting Struve but that way of handicapping rarely works. Both fighters made their debuts in the Octagon with perfect MMA records but only McCorkle sports a victory in the UFC. That win wasn't against some slouch either, as it was 63 second submission victory over Mark Hunt. This fight is very close to a coin-flip and in that situation it behooves you stand on the side of plus money every time. It would not be surprising if McCorkle locked in an arm bar early and won by submission but there is no need to get cute here. Siding with McCorkle and more importantly value is a no brainer here. Play: McCorkle +175 (Risking 2 units).
Steve Merril
Knicks vs. Bobcats
Play: Under 201½
These two teams are mired in dreadful slumps right now; the Knicks have lost 8 of their last 9 games while the Bobcats have lost 10 of their last 13 games. And the major culprit for both teams has been their anemic offensive play; the Knicks have averaged just 94 points per game over their last five games and the Bobcats have averaged only 86 points per game over their last five games. Both coaches also know their teams are in a world of trouble right now as well.
Charlotte head coach Paul Silas shutdown his two best offensive players, Stephen Jackson and Tyrus Thomas, most likely for the rest of the season. ‘I don’t look for Jack to come back anytime soon,’ said Silas of Jackson. ‘All he’s going to do is tweak that thing again. He hurts it every time he gets out here. Why do it if you’re just going to hurt yourself?’ And because of that, Silas realizes his team has little offense left. ‘We just don’t have enough firepower to sustain. That’s how it is, and we’ve got to live with it.’
The Bobcats miraculously beat the Celtics last night. But that was not because Charlotte played one heck of a game; the Celtics just imploded. However, they still only scored 83 points which shows how bad their offense is. New York lost to the Milwaukee 102-96 at home last night as their offense continued to sputter. ‘Everything is so hard,’ said Knicks head coach Mike D’Antoni. ‘It's so not fluid. It's almost like mud in your engine. We're just chugging and it's tough to play that way.’ With two teams virtually in the tank playing with zero offensive flow, we’ll look for a low-scoring game tonight between the Knicks and Bobcats.
Michael Alexander
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Dallas Mavericks -6
DALLAS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season
UTAH is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Utah Jazz +6
The fact the Jazz have fallen 3 times to Dallas this season assures us they will be very hungry when they step on the floor tonight. Plus, Utah comes into this one with an added jolt of confidence after taking New Orleans down to the wire. The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. The Jazz, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Also, the home team is 23-6-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings and the Mavericks are 3-12-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Utah. Take the points.
Black Widow
1* on Charlotte Bobcats +4.5
Once again, the New York Knicks are overvalued despite how terrible they have been playing of late. New York should not be favored on the road tonight against a Charlotte team fighting for their playoff lives. The Knicks are 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall. They are the most tired team in the league right now after having to play an absolutely brutal schedule over the past few weeks. New York is playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 10 days. Charlotte comes into this game with a ton of confidence after winning outright as a 13-point underdog last night at Boston. It was a big win for them, and the Bobcats are now 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Take the Bobcats and the points.
Teddy Covers
New Jersey @ Atlanta
PICK: New Jersey +10
The Hawks enter today’s game in the midst of a miserable run. Atlanta has lost two straight and four of their last five. Three of their last four home games have been ugly blowout losses by 15 points or more; just 4-8 SU in their last dozen home games with six of those defeats coming by double digits margins.
The Hawks are 7-14 SU in their last 21 games, a team locked into the #5 seed in the East with absolutely nothing to play for down the stretch. Center Al Horford: “We're struggling right now. We're really trying to find ourselves. We've had some good times, but we're going through a pretty rough patch right now.” Forward Josh Smith: “I'm exhausted. I mean totally and completely exhausted right now. I think we all are.”
It gets worse than that. This quote from All Star Joe Johnson speaks volumes about the lack of chemistry in Atlanta these days. Johnson: “Everybody on this team knows what we have to do to win. Yet still we don’t come out and do it. It makes us all look bad. Until we get that part of the game down, then we’re going to continue to look bad. We’re a team that sits here in this locker room and talk all the time about what we want to do and what we need to do. Then we go out on the floor and do things that are out of our character or that’s not within ourselves.”
When we think back to last year’s playoffs and closely examine Atlanta’s team character, it’s clear that the Hawks are not a squad to lay points with today. The Nets beat Atlanta in SU fashion the last time these two teams hooked up and there’s no reason to expect a non-competitive affair from New Jersey today. 2* Take the Nets.
David Chan
Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Islanders
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers
I bet value where I see it and believe the Flyers will skate away with a victory tonight.
Philadelphia will look to take advantage of this situation and hand the hapless Islanders another loss and improve to 20-1 in the series.
Philadelphia's last four games have gone to shootouts and only one of those contests has resulted in a win; most recently a 2-1 loss to the Penguins on Thursday (note that the Flyers are 14-5 [+6.8 units] vs. division opponents this year though).
Good news for Philly backers today; the Isles have been particularly inept at the penalty kill of late, giving up eight power-play goals in their last ten contests (and note that the Isles are 16-30 [-11 units] when "revenging" a loss vs. an opponent).
With a tough game against the Bruins tomorrow night, Philadelphia finds a way to get the job done this evening!
JR O'Donnell
Calgary +165
Lets Roll on the Late Ice tonight... Let's lay 1.5 + 165 goals as the Edmonton Oilers as the CALGARY FLAMES check in @ 37-28-11 @ EDMONTON OILERS who are 23-41-10 !! We do not usually play must win games but tonight sets up as a Winner. We note that Six games & These Cal Flames must make up two places in the Western Conference standings if they hope to make the playoffs. How bad are the Oliers who have dropped their last eight games, including a 4-0 loss at St. Louis on Thursday night.The Oilers have scored just seven goals in their recent 0-for streak, they are very very banged up & Taylor Hall and center Sam Gagner out. The Flames get out early as we will play the Flames to roll up a 5-2 final!