SPORTS WAGERS
Kentucky -4 over West Virginia
There really isn’t much left to say about the Wildcats that hasn’t been said already. They are undoubtedly the most athletic team left playing and feature an incredible array of talent. When all is said and done we will look back at this Kentucky team with awe and appreciation for what John Calipari accomplished in his very first year in Lexington. The Wildcats are going to have two top 5 2010 NBA draft picks in John Wall and Demarcus Cousins (who has missed three shots this entire tournament,) lottery pick Patrick Patterson and future lottery pick Eric Bledsoe. We just might be witnessing one of the most loaded teams of the past decade and Thursday’s game against Cornell went a long way towards proving that. Cornell was a very, very good team that was simply outclassed by Kentucky, who closed out the first half on a 30-6 run and completely dominated the Big Red after starting slow. West Virginia is a solid basketball team and Bob Huggins is one of the best coaches in the land but the Mountaineers just do not have the talent Kentucky has. Devin Ebanks is a nice player that won’t make any sort of impact at the next level and Desean Butler is projected as a second round pick at best. To beat this Wildcat team you need to excel at scoring and unfortunately for West Virginia that isn’t the case. They finished the season at a pedestrian 33.3% from three and shot under 50% from inside the arc, numbers that are nowhere near good enough for Kentucky’s suffocating defense. The Wildcats held opponents to 30% from three and 41% from two and held one of the best offenses in D1 to 16-48 shooting on Thursday. Kentucky is rolling through the competition right now and looks primed to win this thing. Sometimes you just have to watch 10 minutes of a game to know if a team has “it.” Kentucky’s got it and I’m calling another blowout from the best team in the country. Play: Kentucky –4 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Tom Freese
New Jersey at Chicago
New Jersey is led in scoring by Brook Lopez and his 19.2 points and 8.8 rebounds a game. Guard Devin Harris scores 17.2 points a game and 6.8 assists a game. Guard Courtney Lee scores 12.2 points a game. Forward Yi Jianlian scores 12 points a game. The Nets score 91.4 points a game and they allow 101.2 points a game. New Jersey is 0-4 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as underdogs. Chicago is led in scoring by Derrick Rose and his 20.4 points a game. Forward Luol Deng scores 18 points and 7.3 rebounds a game. Guard Kirk Hinrich scores 10.6 points a game. Center Joakim Noah scores 10.4 points and 11 rebounds a game. Forward Brad Miller scores 8.5 points a game. The Bulls score 96.9 points a game and they allow 99.6 points a game. Chicago is 8-2 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 8-2 ATS on Saturday. PLAY ON CHICAGO
EZWINNERS
Kansas State Wildcats -4
The Butler Bulldogs have had a great run, but I don't think they will be able to handle this K-State team. The Wildcats have all the ingredients of a championship caliber team. The have a veteran backcourt, a tough frontcourt that can play inside or outside, a loaded bench and solid coaching. Butler is a very good defensive team, but Ronald Nored and Shelvin Mack are going to have their hands full trying to slow down the back court of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. I expect this game to be close early, but K-State will eventually wear down the Bulldogs and win this one by double digits. Lay the points as K-State rolls into the Final Four.
Larry Ness
CHI -9 vs NJN
The Bulls are coming off an embarrassing 103-74 home loss to the Heat on TNT this past Thursday. Meanwhile, the Nets are 'flying,' having won Wednesday night at home of the Kings (93-79) and 118-110 last night over the Pistons to reach nine wins on the year. That means the team has 10 remaining games to get that all-important 10th win, which would avoid the team being mentioned with the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers, who own the worst-ever NBA record in a single season at 9-73. The Bulls have lost 11 of their last 13 (5-8 ATS) but after Thursday night's humiliation, the Chicago players surely HAVE to focused on this one. A loss here to the Nets would be a "rock bottom" situation for the team. Chicago should remember that the Nets won at the United Center back on Dec 8 by the score of 103-101. Rose (20.4-5.7 APG) had 27 points and 10 assists in first meeting but Brook Lopez (25-10), Chris Douglas-Roberts (20) and Josh Boone (10 rebounds) led the way for New Jersey The Nets are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 chances playing the second night of back-to-back games. The Bulls can win here and by a margin. Lay it.
Ben Burns
New York Islanders @ Columbus Blue Jackets
PICK: Columbus Blue Jackets -145
The Islanders beat Columbus by a score of 2-1 in this season's only other meeting. That was at Long Island though, where the Blue Jackets have lost three straight. Today's rematch is at Columbus. That's noteworthy as the Jackets are 5-0 (+5.7) the last five times that they hosted the Isles and 5-0 with one tie, all-time.
The Jackets have a winning record (19-11-7) at home. The Isles are 10-21-7 on the road. Note that the Jackets have outscored teams by a 17-8 margin their last three games here.
Regarding the earlier loss at Long Island, note that the Jackets held a 42-25 edge in shots on goal.
While the playoffs are no longer a reality, the Blue Jackets are 5-2-1 since March 8. They blew out a very good Chicago team by a score of 8-3 last time out and are currently playing some of their best hockey of the season. Consider laying the wood.
Vincent Chan
New Jersey Nets vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -9.5
The Nets score 91.4 points a game and they allow 101.2 points a game and this is even worse on the road. New Jersey is 0-4 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as underdogs. Chicago is led in scoring by Derrick Rose and his 20.4 points a game. Forward Luol Deng scores 18 points and 7.3 rebounds a game. Guard Kirk Hinrich scores 10.6 points a game. Center Joakim Noah scores 10.4 points and 11 rebounds a game. Chicago is 8-2 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 8-2 ATS on Saturday. PLAY ON CHICAGO BIG on Saturday night..
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New Jersey Nets +9
The Nets have shown some life with back-to-back wins. Right now, their 9 wins on the season are tied for the fewest ever, so I expect them to go hard over the final few games so that they aren't even mentioned in the same breath as the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers. The Nets have been consistently undervalued on the road. As a result, they are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Plus, the Bulls are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Take New Jersey and the points.
Stan Lisowski
UTAH
The Jazz have been very resilient off of a loss this year, coming back after a beat to cover 76% of the time. In non-conference games, they are 18-7 ATS vs. the East. After a game the previous night has not been an issue as they have gone 7-2 vs. the number on the road in such settings.
Wunderdog Sports
West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -4
The West Virginia Mountaineers survived vs. Washington despite losing the services of PG Darryl Bryant for the remainder of the season. They will have a much more difficult task in front of them today. Joe Mazzulla took over at the point, and his grade was very low. The Mountaineers made 23 turnovers and appeared lost at the offensive end. Mazzulla finished with 3 points on 1-8 shooting, 4 assists and 4 turnovers. These kinds of numbers may have been enough vs. Washington, but won’t be enough vs. Kentucky. The Wildcats are athletic, and talented, and their youth is playing like seasoned veterans. The Wildcats are playing at a high level and covering all three tournament games with an average winning margin of 25.3 points per game. I don't think a healthy Mountaineers team could stay in this one, let alone one which lost their playmaker. I'll go with Kentucky here.
Hollywood Sports
New Jersey Nets at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
Break up the Nets! New Jersey (9-63) have won two straight games after they took care of the hapless Pistons by a 118-110 score last night. But New Jersey's five starters logged in over 162 total minutes and the Nets are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games playing without rest when their starters played at least 160 minutes the night before. New Jersey was actually favored last night (which shows just how far Detroit has fallen). In Chicago tonight, the Nets will be back to their usual underdog status and New Jersey has failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as an underdog. The Bulls (33-38) finally are close to full strength with the return of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah to their lineup. But Chicago was buried by the Heat on Thursday by a 103-74 score. The Bulls should bounce-back as they have covered four straight games coming off a loss. And Chicago has covered seven of their last nine home games against a team with a losing record on the road. Look for the young and hungry Bulls team to prove themselves now that they have two of their key players back in tow. Lay the points with Chicago.
Jack Jones
Butler vs. Kansas State
Pick: Kansas State -4
Butler's run comes to an end against a superior Kansas State team Saturday. Syracuse played perhaps their worst game of the season and had a 4-point lead against the Bulldogs late, even though Butler played one of their best games of the year. K-State will be on top of their game for this one, and they'll suffocate the Bulldogs early to not give them hope like Syracuse did after falling behind by 10 at half. The combo of Jacob Pullen and Clemente in the backcourt had been unstoppable in this tournament for the Wildcats. The Wildcats have scored 82 or more points in all 3 NCAA Tournament games, hitting on all cylinders offensively. They have also had a suffocating defense, holding all 3 opponents to 43.1%, 39.6% and 30.9% shooting, respectively.
Butler and Kansas State do have come common opponents this season. They are Cleveland State, Loyola-Illinois and Xavier. Butler is 5-0 against these teams this season, outscoring them by just 7.4 PPG. Xavier is 4-0 against these same opponents, outscoring them by a ridiculous 21.8 PPG. A good way to compare teams is with common opponents, and K-State has a big edge here. Kansas State is 18-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Take the Wildcats.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Golden State Warriors +4.5
Golden State is Dallas' kryptonite. In fact, the Mavericks are 9-23-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings and just 3-13-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Golden State. The Warriors are an impressive 48-18-2 ATS in their last 68 games as a home underdog and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games overall. The Mavericks are a terrible 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite. Just recently, the Warriors have played the Lakers to a 3-point game and the Suns to a 2-point game. Plus, the Mavs are struggling, having dropped 4 of 6 SU, and they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7. Take the points.
LT PROFITS
New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs
The New York Rangers have won two straight games to move to within three points of eighth place Boston for the final playoff spot in the East, thanks to some stifling defense, and we look for them to put the clamps on the Toronto Maple Leafs here en route to a safe Under.
In fact, this is not a new occurrence for the Rangers as the Under is 25-10-3 in their last 38 road games overall, and all of their road games this season are averaging a lowly 4.77 goals combined. They have allowed three goals or less in six of their last seven games, allowing two goals or less in four of those games.
Do not be surprised if goaltender Henrik Lundqvist starts every game for the rest of the season as the Rangers make their playoff push, and he has not been affected by the workload yet, posting a sparkling 2.43 GAA and .919 save percentage for the season.
Even the Leafs have now gone Under in six consecutive games, and they are 4-2 straight up in those games while allowing either one or two goals in each of the wins. They are finally getting some decent goaltending since Jonas Gustavsson took over as the starter, and he was not in net in the first two head-to-head meetings between these clubs, which both went Over.
Look for a mush lower scoring contest this time around.
Pick: Rangers/Maple Leafs Under 5.5
LT PROFITS
Kentucky Wildcats vs West Virginia Mountaineers
The Kentucky Wildcats bullied their way through a soft SEC schedule this season, and they then got some favorable matchups in the first three rounds of this NCAA Tournament, but we feel that their joy ride come to an end today vs. the West Virginia Mountaineers.
Remember that the Wildcats are loaded with freshmen and sophomores, and while they do have a boatload of natural talent, they have not really faced any adversity yet. First, this was a down year for the SEC, so the fact that they lost two games all year was actually to be expected. Then, they basically had a scrimmage in the first round of this tournament, and then, they drew mediocre Wake Forest and a game but outclassed Cornell team due to upsets.
They are now facing a real challenge for probably the first time all season, as West Virginia has with almost certainty the best defense that Kentucky has faced. We see the Mounties easily frustrating the young Cats here, and we feel the immaturity of this Kentucky team will become apparent when they are unable to run as much as they would like.
West Virginia ranks 11 in the country in defensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings, and a little surprisingly, they also rank 14 in offensive efficiency. The Mounties may not be a good shooting team, but they make up for it by ranking first in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, boarding an unbelievable 42.3 percent of their missed shots.
We will gladly take the points in this spot, and we feel that the Money Line is a good investment here also.
Pick: West Virginia +4