Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 28

Jimmy Boyd

Notre Dame vs. Kentucky
Play: Notre Dame +11

After completely destroying West Virginia in their Sweet 16 matchup, there's no doubt this line has been inflated in favor of the Wildcats. As hard as it is to go against Kentucky, the smart play here is to take the points with Notre Dame, who has now won 8 straight. Unlike the Mountaineers, who rely almost exclusively on their press to generate offense, Notre Dame can score in the half-court and most importantly shoot the 3-ball. The Irish come in hitting 39.2% from behind the arc. They also have an offense that will force Kentucky's bigs to play away from the basket, which is out of their comfort zone. Notre Dame is also a better defensive team than they get credit for. Another factor here is that as big as this game is, it's going to be extremely difficult for Kentucky to give Notre Dame their full respect after how easy they had it against West Virginia. I look for the Wildcats to come out a bit flat, which will allow Notre Dame to make a game of it early and gain the confidence needed to believe they can pull off the upset. Kentucky is just 7-14 ATS this season after allowing 30 points or less in the 1st half of their last game and 8-18 ATS in their last 26 after holding their previous opponent to 33% or worse from the field. The Fighting Irish on the other hand is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.

Don Anthony

Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +5

This line is begging for Golden State action and it just seems way too easy to take the Warriors. Usually when a line is too good to be true, it is. Golden State comes off a huge win last night against the Grizzlies and tonight will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. I expect a letdown from them tonight. The Warriors have also been terrible against the Bucks. Golden State is just 1-7-1 ATS their last 9 games against Milwaukee. Look for Milwaukee to keep this one close to the end and possibly even pull the upset.

Brandon Lee

Notre Dame vs. Kentucky
Play: Over 136

First instinct might be to take the under after watching Kentucky limit West Virginia to just 39 points, but I believe the value here is with the over. Notre Dame comes in averaging 78.3 ppg and I look for their offense to give the Wildcats a lot more trouble than people are expecting. The Irish do a great job of spacing, which will keep Kentucky from clogging the lane. They also hit a high percentage of their 3-point attempt and have a big time playmaker in Grant, who will be able to create his own shot. On the flip side of this, Notre Dame doesn't have the size defensively to stop Kentucky from getting a lot of easy looks inside.

Rob Vinciletti

Canisius vs. NJIT
Play: NJIT -2½

On Saturday the Free Play is on NJ.IT. also know as New Jersey Tech. Game 516 at 7:30 eastern. They are laying just a few points here at home and have some clear cut advantages over Canisius. Tech has won 13 of 15 at home and has covered all 4 lined game vs winning teams. They are 5-0 this year vs teams who allow 64 or less points per game. Canisius is under .500 vs winning teams and are 0-3 when the total is 140 to 145. Looking at the RPI Scale NJ Tech has won 4 of the last 5 vs teams ranked 150 to 200 while Canisius has lost 5 of 8 vs teams ranked 150 to 200. Take NJIT. On Saturday the NBA Total of the year from an Undefeated Totals system that dates to 1995 and beats the average line by over 20 points.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Marc Lawrence

Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +5

Edges - Bucks: 6-1 ATS in this series; and 21-13-1 ATS as a non-division dog this season. Warriors: 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away last seven games versus foe with same season loss revenge; and 2-5 SUATS after Grizzlies. With Golden State in off a revenge tussle with Memphis last night, and the Bucks looking to avenge a loss suffered earlier this year at Golden State, we recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Ari Atari

Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Play: Atlanta Hawks -3

The Hawks are getting a low line today at -3 because they clinched the top spot in the East and there isn't much to play for especially on a back to back today. They can take it easy for a couple of games until they realize that if they relax too much, the playoffs could knock them around harder than it should. I still see Atlanta winning by a couple of baskets with Charlotte overtaxing their two key players yesterday who should be very careful with their injuries. Mo Williams and Al Jefferson clocked in over 40 minutes each last night in a double overtime loss to the Wizards (1 of 2 big NBA wins for SportsAtari yesterday). Atlanta's bench proves their worth tonight. Take the Hawks.

Jesse Schule

Ottawa vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

This is not a fun time to be a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The team is under heavy scrutiny from fans and media as they face the prospect of rebuilding a team that was expected to compete with start players like Phil Kessel and James Van-Riemsdyk. It wasn't so long ago that the Senators appeared to be in exactly the same situation, but then stepped in Andrew Hammond.

When Ottawa promoted their third string goaltender after injuries to #1 Anderson and #2 Lehner, they went on a 14-1-1 run that has put them back in the playoff picture. Stellar goaltending from Hammond appears to be the main reason for their success, as he was 14-0-1 with a 1.91 GAA during that run. The only loss came when Craig Anderson allowed three goals on 22 shots in a 3-1 home defeat to Boston.

Hammond was injured in a win over the Sharks on Monday, and he then surrendered five goals on 22 shots in a loss to the Rangers on Thursday. His status is unclear heading into this marquee match-up versus the Leafs, and we could see Anderson back between the pipes.

Don't expect this game to be a cakewalk for the Sens, no matter who is in goal. The Leafs aren't going to roll out the red carpet and then lay down in a nationally televised game (Hockey Night in Canada). The only thing more satisfying to the Maple Leafs than a win over the Sens, would be a win over Montreal. Toronto actually has a winning record at home, yet they are an enormous underdog here. I'll take the home dog with the big payout in a game that is sure to be close.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trailblazers
Pick: Portland Trailblazers

A bad situational spot for the visitors, having to play last night against a rugged Utah defense and the Nuggets are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on no days rest. They are in such a funk they couldn't even beat the 76ers at home. Portland is home and the No. 4 seed in the West, 10th in the NBA in scoring and points allowed, plus second in rebounds. The Nuggets are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, so grab home court.

Mr Vegas

Golden State at Milwaukee
Play: Golden State

If there was any doubt that Golden State is the best team in the NBA, I think they have laid those to rest. The Warriors have opened up a lead for the best record in the NBA over Atlanta to four games. But what has impressed me most was this recent stretch of games. The Warriors had to play four games over five nights and five over seven nights. Not only did they win all five games, but they covered all five. And, they did so without one of their star players in shooting guard Klay Thomspson, who has been nursing a injured ankle. Tonight we see again a Warriors team that had to play last night, making this another back-to-back spot. I'm not going to go against the Warriors though. They have made believers out of me, even in the worst of situations. I'll lay the points here again with the Warriors.

Sleepyj

NJIT -145

This team is not known to most of the bettors out there..One thing to note about this NJIT team is they can ball..They have the stats to prove it..A few days back i broke down the NJIT & Cleve State game...After i was done working the game i was shocked that i actually liked NJIT..I could not fire on them because of the name. I sold myself short on that game. it would have been a winner..Working this game today, i find myself in the same scenerio. Canisius is going to have trouble keeping pace with NJIT..The Highlanders can spread the ball very well and shoot a very good %...They score around 72ppg...Canisius is 311th in fg% and they score around 64ppg..I feel more comfortable with the better offense at home in this one..Winning against Cleve St says something about this Highlanders team..They are in the Div 1 and here to stay.

DAVE COKIN

NOTRE DAME VS KENTUCKY
PLAY: KENTUCKY -11

One cannot help but be impressed with the way Notre Dame has come together. The Irish did themselves proud winning the ACC Tournament and now they have a chance to become the big story of the entire season by knocking off all-powerful Kentucky.

Great storyline to be sure, but I don’t see it happening. I’ve said all season the only team that can beat Kentucky is Kentucky, and that opinion hasn’t changed even a little bit. The Wildcats are an incredible collection of pure talent and they’re just huge to boot.

Therein lies the problem as I see it for Notre Dame. When peering at potential matchups as the brackets were put together, I circled this one as what I felt loomed as a blowout possibility. It’s just a matter of size to me. Notre Dame is talented and they really run some first rate stuff on offense. But they’re not big and they’re not physical and that makes the Wildcats a really bad opponent for Mike Bray’s outfit.

I’m not saying the Irish have no chance here. If they can light it up from beyond the arc again, as they certainly did in the ACC final against North Carolina, and as they did in the win against Wichita, Notre Dame can hang. But that’s anything but a sure thing against the Wildcats, who just happen to non the best three-point defense in the country.

I just don’t see how Notre Dame can have much success inside against the mammoth Kentucky front line. Unfortunately for the Irish, they are also going to be hard pressed to get many second chances here, so I’m not sure where the points required to compete will come from. That therefore could put the burden on the Irish defense to stifle the Wildcats and that just isn’t their strong suit.

The number is big, and the idea of getting doubles with Notre Dame will be very appealing to many wagerers. I don’t see it myself. On a pure power rating, I think a case for the Irish can be made. But the matchup is the overriding factor for me, and I believe Kentucky will eventually turn this into a fairly lopsided result. I’m laying the points with the Wildcats.

LT Profits

Arizona vs Wisconsin
Pick: Under 136.5

Perhaps the two biggest threats to Kentucky for the national title oppose each other in the Elite Eight when the Arizona Wildcats face the Wisconsin Badgers, and this could be a much lower scoring game than this total suggests. Just about the only criticism against the Wildcats is that they tend to play at a slower pace than they could under Coach Sean Miller, and they could be undefeated right now as their three losses have been by two, three and four points respectively after that pace allowed those opponents to hang around and rally late. That pace combined with Arizona ranking third in the country in defensive efficiency is a combination conducive to ‘unders’. And Wisconsin is ranked 347th out of 351 teams in tempo rating, so the Badgers will not be anxious to speed the Wildcats up. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six Arizona games overall.

Dave Price

Milwaukee Bucks +5

This is a very difficult situation for the Golden State Warriors. They are coming off a huge win at Memphis last night, which was the last team that they had not beaten this season, so that was a huge accomplishment. The Warriors will now not only be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 6th game in 9 days. They are running on fumes right now. The Bucks, meanwhile, had yesterday off and will be highly motivated to face the league's best team in the Warriors tonight at home. Milwaukee has gone 20-14 at home this season. The Bucks are 13-2 ATS when the total of 200 to 209.5 this season. The Warriors are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference. Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Central division opponents. The Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.

Ian Hudson

Kurumi Nara vs. Daria Gavrilova
Play: Kurumi Nara +140

Nara at 54 in the world rankings is 43 places above her opponent in this match so its a surprise the bookmakers see her as the underdog. Neither player has any winning form in Miami over the last three tournaments. Nara has recorded far superior results outdoors on hardcourts since the start of 2014 wining 24 matches on the surface while Gavrilova has won just four. The only previous match between the player was in the quarter-finals of the US Open in 2011 and Nara won that match in straight sets and can record a similar results in Miami this year.