Jack Jones
Oklahoma City Thunder -4½
The Utah Jazz have finally cooled off after an impressive stretch over the past month-plus. They have lost four in a row coming into this one, including a 91-107 road loss at lowly Denver last night. It appears that they have finally packed it in.
Now, the Jazz are in a very difficult spot tonight because of a lack of rest. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. This will also be their 7th game in 11 days.
Oklahoma City checks in on two days' rest after last playing the Spurs on Wednesday. It will be well-rested and ready to go tonight. The Thunder also have a lot to play for right now as they are trying to lock down the No. 8 seed in the West, so motivation will not be an issue for them.
The Thunder are 11-2 ATS after allowing 110 or more points in two straight games over the last three seasons. OKC is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Brad Diamond
Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Play: Atlanta Hawks -3
The Hornets have lost three straight games, and seemingly have packed it in for the season. Atlanta shows 24-12 SU on the road, 21-9-1 ATS in the same venue...While, visiting North Carolina, the Hawks have been real money for their backers cashing 6-of-7 ATS. Atlanta is 11-3 ATS overall in the series and seems primed for another SU/ATS success.
Alex Smart
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs +172
The Leafs host the Ottawa Senators this Saturday night in a game of two Canadian teams that are headed in opposite directions. However, despite of some obvious trends, their is a contrarian angle at play here in this spot. I know that Toronto has been horrendous this season, and are currently on a 7 game losing streak which includes losses in 10 of their L/11 overall. I also know that Ottawa before getting crushed by a 5-1 count vs the NY Rangers last time out had won 7 straight and 9 of their L/10 and 17 of their L/22 behind phenom goalie Andrew Hammonds (14-1-1) aka the Hamburglar . That last humbling event, Im betting brings the Sens back down to earth, and makes them susceptible to getting upset in a place where the franchise has not done well of late losing 4 straight trips into TO. Also Hammonds injured himself in the last game, and his goaltending partner Anderson, the guy he earlier replaced, is still less than 100% with a hand injury. If either goaltender cant go rookie Chris Driedger, who just got recalled from the minors, will make his first NHL start. Whatever, and whoever is in the cage tonight, does not matter, as the Sens presence should temporarily bring out the best in the Leafs for at least one game. Call me crazy, if you like, but Im taking a half unit flyer with the Leafs with the value price attached.
Sam Martin
Notre Dame at Kentucky
Play: Notre Dame
While we do believe Kentucky will win this game outright, we don't believe it will come easy and feel this is way too many points to be laying to a quality Notre Dame squad. Irish won a very tough ACC Tournament, including wins against Virginia and North Carolina at the end, and while they struggled a bit in their games last weekend, they had no problems beating an underrated Wichita State team on Thursday.
Kentucky was also lackluster last weekend before absolutely demolishing West Virginia on Thursday, and we had the Wildcats in that blowout victory. But this is a very different matchup from the Mountaineers. Not only is Notre Dame far superior than WVU in both shooting offense and defense, they also have height with their interior players and should be able to stay man-to-man and make Kentucky beat them one-on-one. That doesn't allow the Wildcats as many open shots and far less open three-point attempts. Kentucky still good enough to win here, but not by a double-digit margin.
Wunderdog
Nashville @ Washington
Pick: Washington -115
The Nashville Predators were dominating over a good chunk of the season, but they have really hit the wall late in the season. They enter tonight's game vs. Washington at 7-11 in their last 18 games. They are off two consecutive huge wins agaainst Montreal and Tampa Bay, and they had to leave a lot on the ice to get those wins. As a result, thy could easily be fatigued and mentally absent tonight. The Prdators have done most of their heavy lifting on home ice as they have a losing record on the road. Washington is playing well right now winning four of their last five, allowing 10 total goals. The Predators have struggled to a 3-8 road record in their last 11 on the road vs. a team with a winning home record, and the Caps are 16-7 here in their last 23, and have taken four straight here vs. Nashville.
King Creole
Thunder / Jazz Under 197
This Northwest Division game opened with a line of 197.5 points. It's gone DOWN a half a point on game day, so you'll want to get your action in as soon as possible. There's no reason why this game shouldn't go like the previous three matchups this season between these two teams. Back on November 18th, the OU line was 186 in Utah… and the Jazz won 98 to 81 (UNDER hit by 7 points). Then on Nov. 26th, the rematch was in Ok City and the OU lime was 185 points. The Thunder won that won by a score of 97 to 82 (UNDER hit by 6 points). Finally, hey played each other again on Jan. 9th, and the OU line was 197.5 (similar to tonight's line). In that one, the Thunder won by a score of 99 to 94 (UNDER hit by 4.5 points).So there's no reason that the FOURTH meeting between these two division rivals ALSO shouldn't follow that same 0-3 O/U pattern.
In every game tonight, at least ONE team played last night… and therefore comes in with NO REST. On this particular Day of the Week, these unrested teams tend to drag ass a little. And there result is a lower-than-anticipated final score versus any team playing with at least one day of rest… 2-15 O/U since Christmas: All SATURDAY underdogs playing with NO REST (Jazz) versus any opponent playing with 1 or more days of rest (Thunder), when the OU line is < 204 points. For tonight, the only other game that applies in this low-scoring situation (that you MAY want to consider betting) is in the Knicks / Bulls game… These games have gone a PERFECT 0-10 O/U since the beginning of February.
So let's look at the division aspect of this game… and couple it with the exact rest situation. Utah played last night, and Ok City last played on Wednesday night (2 days of rest)… 1-6 o/U since 2003: All DIVISIONAL home underdogs in a '0/2' REST situation (Jazz), when the OU line is 197 or more points.
We are well AWARE that both teams are on current 'OVER' runs in their last few games. Ok City is 6-1 O/U in their last seven games. And Utah has gone OVER in each of their last four games. That's ok. It provides us with VALUE on the 'Under'. And besides: 2-10 O/U this season: All Conference home 'pick' or underdogs when BOTH teams (Jazz + Thunder) are off 2 or more OVERS in a row… when the OU Line is < 209 points.
Oklahoma City got their asses handed to them by the Spurs three nights ago. They lost by a freakin' score of 130 to 91! 1-9 O/U last two years: All NBA teams off a SU road loss of 35 or more points that ALSO went 'Over the Total' (Thunder), when the OU line is < 211 points.
So BOTH of these teams are off UGLY losses in their last game. Ok City lost by 39 points… and Utah lost by 16 points last night to the Denver Nuggets. If this OU pattern doesn't 'seal the deal', then I don't know what does: NBA games haver gone 2-18-1 O/U THIS season when BOTH teams are off a SU loss of 15 or more points in their last game (like the Jazz AND the Thunder). When the OU line in these games has been 201 or less points, the results have gone a PERFECT 0-12 O/U!
Tony George
Kentucky -11
When in the world would you lay 11 points in the Elite 8 unless it involved a Cinderella team whose time has come? Well it would be on the Wildcats who sent a message to everyone with a blowout win over a decent West Virginia team Thursday. WOW. Kentucky as good as advertised gents. The FACT they have guys 7 foot tall coming out and defending a 2 guard successfully and a smothering defense where they keep themselves between their man and the basket and then dominate the boards after forcing tough shots, is stuff legends are made of.
The Irish are a damn good team, a red hot team, well coached with some stud players. I have no illusions that the Irish are not going to lay down, because they play hard and have some moxy, but Kentucky's depth, especially late in games is just too much for any team in the field right now. The Wildcats are 17 ppg better on defense than Notre Dame on Neutral floor games - that is the KEY in this game.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin / Arizona Under 132: Both of these defenses have been very good this and have really excelled at making their opponents play halfcourt offense. This game should be no exception. Wisconsin had a tough time vs Carolina's uptempo offense for much of their game on Thursday, but the Wildcats do not play that fast and they will be happy to grind it our with the Badgers here. Arizona has been playing great defense of late as they have allowed just 58.7 ppg during their 14 game win streak and while this is a very efficient Wisconsin offense I feel that the Cats will have the ability to stop them in this one. The Arizona offense has exploded at times down the stretch, but they haven't played a defense like this yet as they will be facing a Badgers defense has allowed just 57.2 ppg on the year and just 61.2 ppg on neutral courts. Just too much defense and too much half court offense to think this one can hit the 130s at all.
Jimmy Boyd
Wisconsin vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -1.5
I just haven’t been impressed with how Wisconsin has been playing up to this point in the tournament and I think their run will come to an end Saturday against the Wildcats. I think Arizona expected to just show up and walk all over Xavier, while Wisconsin was simply outplayed for the majority of their contest against North Carolina. The Wildcats haven’t forgot about last year’s heartbreaking 63-64 overtime loss to the Badgers in the Elite 8. I expect them to have a much better game plan for Karminsky, who shredded them for 28 points on 11 of 20 shooting. No other player for Wisconsin had more than 10 points. Offensively, Arizona has struggled to get going in their last couple of games and you might think they are in trouble against a good Wisconsin defense, but the Badgers don't create a lot of turnovers, which is key. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers and have averaged 82.8 ppg in these matchups. Arizona is also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 after 15+ games against teams that are allowing 64 or less points/game. These two systems combine to form a 79% (23-6) system in favor of the Wildcats.
Jeff Alexander
Notre Dame +11
No surprise here as the books have made a huge overreaction here based on Kentucky's blowout win over West Virginia. After a couple of less than impressive showings in their first two games, Notre Dame finally played up to their potential in their win over Wichita State. I look for the Irish to give Kentucky all they can handle and easily cover this double-digit spread. Notre Dame is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games following a SU win, while Kentucky is just 7-14 ATS in their last 21 after allowing 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last 2 games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Wisconsin +107 over Arizona
We’re not going to take anything away from the Wildcats whatsoever because winning against anyone in a one-and-done situation is tough but the Wildcats route to the Elite Eight and to its championship season in the Pac-12 leaves us wondering just how good this team is. The rest of the teams from the Pac-12 are gone while the Big-10 represents 25% of the teams left.Arizona's defense is truly elite, arguably one of the best in the country right now. The Wildcats' defense feeds their offensive-efficiency numbers thanks to a relatively high proportion of easy transition baskets off turnovers and defensive rebounds. We’re not convinced that the ‘Cats can match that level of efficiency against Wisconsin's stout defense. Wisconsin has been facing (and beating) elite defenses all year. The Badgers' vocal and strong-travelling fan base ensures that even this Los Angeles location won't provide a true home atmosphere for the No. 2 seed Wildcats.
It is somewhat baffling to find the Badgers in an underdog scenario despite having a very productive tournament up to this point. Wisconsin has defeated a #16 seed, a #8 seed and a #4 seed respectively while the Wildcats have disposed of a #15, #10 and #6 seed respectively. Since when is a #2 seed a favorite against a #1 seed? When you consider the Pac-12 versus the Big 10, the strength of schedule component yet again rests with Wisconsin. The 7th seeded Spartans have punched their ticket to the Elite Eight and MSU is another Big 10 team that Wisconsin beat by a considerable margin just before the tournament kicked off. The Badgers have played 37 games this year and they have been favored in all of them. Now they’re a dog and while the Wildcats are a very worthy opponent, the Badgers cannot be a pooch to any team in the country not named Kentucky. With Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson and Frank Kaminsky all capable of hitting from 3-point range and driving to the basket, the Badgers' offense is tough to stop. Again, value rules the day and in this case, that value is on what we trust is the superior Badgers. We’re thrilled to get them taking back anything.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa -½ -108 over TORONTO
Regulation only. Do we have to go over this again? If the Maple Leafs beat us here, we’ll rip up our ticket and send them a big thank-you note for fattening our bankroll. However, that is unlikely to happen because the Maple Leafs have proven over and over and over that they have no interest in competing. Every once in a while the Leafs run into a team that takes them lightly or shows up with little energy like Minnesota, Vancouver, Calgary and the Islanders did recently. The Leafs went 0-4 in those games. When a team does show up, Toronto’s win expectation is about 1% and we can’t imagine for a second the Senators pulling a no show here. Incidentally, James Reimer has been confirmed to start here, which does not increase the Leafs chances of winning. Reimer hasn’t played a lot lately but in his last three starts the Leafs allowed a combined 15 goals against.
Andrew Hammond’s clock struck midnight in Ottawa’s last game at home against the Rangers. They lost 5-1 and now the Sens can safely, without criticism turn to their #1 goaltender, Craig Anderson. It’s not confirmed yet but we’d be utterly shocked if Anderson wasn’t named the starter here. We don’t see a letdown either. The Senators remain one of the highest scoring teams in the second half of the season and that is especially true in three games prior to playing the Rangers in which they scored five times or more in all three games. That figures to bode well here against a defenseless Maple Leafs squad that has allowed 6, 4, 4, 4, 5 and 4 goals against in six of their past seven games. This game doesn’t need to be broken down because it’s not a difficult choice. We mentioned many games ago that the Leafs fade is on for the rest of the year and we’re not about to switch gears now. Ottawa should be -½ -200 here because the Leafs win or tie in regulation once every 10 games.
N.Y. ISLANDERS -½ +152 over Anaheim
Regulation only. 1:00 PM EST. The Ducks are coming off a win in Boston but once again they were aided by puck luck. The Ducks scored with their goalie pulled with 31 seconds left to tie it and they subsequently won it in OT. Prior to that, the Ducks had dropped consecutive games to Columbus and the Rangers while being outscored 12-5. The Ducks offense is always dangerous but once again the market is putting too much emphasis on wins and losses and that’s something we are going to attack. in that regard, the Islanders have dropped six of their past seven. As a result of that, the Islanders are undervalued at home.
Let’s forget about the Islanders last seven games for a minute. We’ll get back to that. Prior to this recent funk, the Islanders were near unbeatable at home with just nine losses. That was the third best home mark in the league at the time. The Islanders are also as healthy as they have been all year. When we look at the Islanders last seven games, what we see is a slew of hot goaltenders that they ran into. Over their last seven games, the Islanders have faced the following goaltenders: Cam Talbot, Andrew Hammond, Carey Price, Cory Crawford, Cory Schneider, Devan Dubnyk and Jonathan Quick. Each one played outstanding against the Islanders. A close look reveals that the Islanders actually dominated most of those games. They fired away 38 shots on Dubnyk and lost 3-1. They fired 39 on Crawford and lost 4-1. They outshot the Rangers 30-22 and lost 2-1. They outshot Montreal 36-30 and lost 3-1. In fact, the Islanders fired away 35 shots on net or more in five of those seven losses and outshot the opposition in six of those seven games. The Islanders faced a very difficult string of teams and goalies but they are on the verge of exploding. The Islanders have not slowed down whatsoever. They are actually working harder than ever and they’re playing as well right now as they were when they were defeating everyone. The Islanders will now face a team and goaltender that are both prone to giving up something. Wagering on the Islanders at -123 is an option one could consider because it’s a small price based on the Islanders last seven games. Had they won those games and they were the better team in just about all of them, we would be talking about them being -150 here. That said, we’re going with the better value of playing them in regulation and taking back a pretty sweet tag. It’s also worth noting the 1 PM EST and for the Ducks, playing an East Coast game at 1 PM has to feel highly unusual.
Florida +161 over MONTREAL
Regulation only. There are two reasons we are playing this one in regulation only. First, we are on one of our horrible runs in extra time (losing six of last seven) and secondly, we’re not interested in Luongo against Price should it go into a shootout. Some of you may not have this bet available but if you have an account at Pinny, it is available. In other words, if the game is tied after regulation, the wager is a push and OT means nothing. If you don’t have that option, we would still recommend playing it with OT included because the Panthers have a great shot of winning at a great price.
The Canadiens are almost always playable when taking back a tag because Price gives them a great chance to win every time out. However, the Canadiens are not playable when favored because they rely too heavily on Price. Without Price, the Canadiens might not even be a playoff team and the proof is in the pudding. When Price doesn’t start, the Habs are 6-9 this season and when that record is projected over an entire season, it means watching the playoffs from the rail. Montreal has dropped two in a row and has been outshot in seven of their past 10 games. Ironically, they lost in Winnipeg on Thursday only because Dustin Tokarski was garbage while Andrej Pavelec stood on his head. Now the Canadiens return home from a brief two-game trip and they’re a big price over a team that is playing at an extremely high level and certainly playing better than the Habs are.
The Panthers have won eight of their past 13 games. All of their losses over that span were by one goal to Tampa Bay, the Rangers, Dallas, Montreal and Toronto. The loss to Toronto holds no weight because the Panthers were playing with two badly injured goalies and dominated the entire game. It’s been 14 games since the Panthers lost by more than one goal. They’ve also held three of their last four opponents to one goal. When they played in Tampa two games ago and lost 4-3, they dominated that game as well. Readers of this section know that the Panthers are high on our radar. They remain the most undervalued team in the league and it’s not even close. A team this good and playing this well should not be this big a pooch in Montreal or anywhere else for that matter. Today, the Panthers offer up the most value on the NHL card and we’re not about to miss the opportunity to play them in this range. Huge overlay.
John Ryan
New York Knicks vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -16½
The simulator shows a high probability that the Bulls will win this game by at least 18 points. Knicks have absolutely nothing to play for and the Bulls are competing for the best ranked playoff position. Knicks have lost 6 straight and have not shot over 41% in any of them. In three of the last four games they allowed at least 52% shooting. Bulls have a very friendly schedule to end the season playing 7 of 8 games against losing record teams. The only winning record one is a showdown at Cleveland April 5. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bulls are a solid 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Knicks are just 36-52 ATS (-21.2 Units) competing against good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points and take the Bulls.
Dave Price
Milwaukee Bucks +5
This is a very difficult situation for the Golden State Warriors. They are coming off a huge win at Memphis last night, which was the last team that they had not beaten this season, so that was a huge accomplishment. The Warriors will now not only be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 6th game in 9 days. They are running on fumes right now. The Bucks, meanwhile, had yesterday off and will be highly motivated to face the league's best team in the Warriors tonight at home. Milwaukee has gone 20-14 at home this season. The Bucks are 13-2 ATS when the total of 200 to 209.5 this season. The Warriors are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference. Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Central division opponents. The Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.
Will Rogers
Dallas Stars vs. Vancouver Canucks
Play: Vancouver Canucks -135
Both the Dallas Stars and the Vancouver Canucks have been hot of late, but both clubs are also looking to bounce back from a loss their last time out. Dallas was in action as early as last night though while the Nucks have had one more day of rest. At the end of a long season that could be a huge factor, and I like the price we get on the hosts in this match-up. Here are my keys to the game:
1. Situational/Motivational - The Stars looked like they might would be able to make one last push for the playoffs, but last night's shutout loss on the road against the lowly Edmonton Oilers will have killed their spirit completely though. Vancouver on the other hand should have all the motivation in the world as although it's sitting second in the Pacific Division, a playoff berth is far from guaranteed just yet.
2. Dallas Goaltending Situation - Kari Lehtonen has allowed 10 goals over his last three games and tended the net last night in Edmonton. He's 2-2-1 behind a 3.99 GAA over five appearances on back-to-back days on the season and that could open up for back-up Jhonas Enroth who is 1-5-0 behind a 3.26 GAA in the Stars jersey since coming over from the Sabres.
3. X-Factor - The Stars are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. Do you think the Nucks are happy about this? My guess would be NO, and this should prove a good spot as any to end that streak against a demoralized Stars team.