Doug Upstone
Florida Panthers vs. Montreal Canadiens
Play: Montreal Canadiens -155
Play Against road underdogs of +100 to +150 on the money line like FLORIDA, off a road win against a division rival, with a SU losing record in the second half of the season. History tells us these losing teams in essentially standard road odds have a hard time winning two games in a row like this later in the season and are just 19-57, the past 18 years.
Brad Wilton
Kentucky seemed particularly roused on Thursday as they broke from the gate on an 18-2 run to effectively take the life out of West Virginia. That was not the case the game before when Cincinnati played Kentucky fairly close, and stayed close enough to stay inside of the double-digits they were getting from the linesmakers.
I think Notre Dame is a more complete team than either West Virginia or Cincinnati, and I think Notre Dame can keep this one respectable at Quicken Loans Arena on Saturday night.
This is an Irish team that played in arguably the toughest conference in the nation, the ACC. Not only did they play in the conference, but the WON the post-season tournament beating Duke and North Carolina within a 24 hour window to cut down the nets in Greensboro. In fact, ND beat both Duke and North Carolina TWICE on the season, so I give them a puncher's shot at staying inside of the number in this one.
Notre Dame has covered 4 in a row in the underdog role this year, and they are 6-2 against the spread for the season when catching points.
Of course beating this Kentucky team outright will be a tall order, and while the Irish may not be as big or as deep as John Calipari's team, but of all the teams that are left standing, why not Notre Dame?
Take the points!
2* NOTRE DAME
Gabriel DuPont
The SMART INTANGIBLE working with NJIT - The Highlanders are making some noise this postseason, and I don't think they're done. They're igniting things in Newark, and come into this one high off an 84-77 win over New Hampshire and an emotional 80-77 win on Monday against Cleveland State.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Canisius - Canisius is good, and I've seen this team perform well over the years under coach Jim Baron. But now it's time the Golden Griffins met their match. I don't think they have the defense to slow the Highlanders, and I don't think they can win a shootout with this one being at the Fleisher Athletic Center.
Overall, why NJIT is my FREE PLAY in this game - Both of NJIT's wins were in front of sold-out home crowds, the first, over New Hampshire, in front of the first-ever Division I postseason game for the Highlanders. This town is on fire for the Highlanders right now, and things are abuzz, as they have a chance to end up in the semifinals of this tournament.
Don't forget, this is the same NJIT team that beat Michigan, in Ann Arbor back on Dec. 6, when the Wolverines were ranked #17 and #16, in the AP and USA Today polls, respectively. The Highlanders have four players who average at least 11.1 points per game, and know how to manufacture points. I like them to win and cover here.
1* NJIT
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Under in the Hawks-Hornets contest.
Both teams were in action last night, as the Hawks held Under for the second straight game, while the Hornets did go Over the total, but still are on a 5-2 Under run in their last 7 games played overall.
The teams have split a pair of season meetings this year Over/Under wise, but 3 of the last 4 in this series have held low.
Both teams dealing with some injured bodies, so look for the offenses to have trouble getting things working on a consistent basis. That being the case, let's make it a 4-1 series Under run between the Hawks and the Hornets.
Atlanta-Charlotte Under the total on Saturday night.
3* ATLANTA-CHARLOTTE UNDER
Chris Jordan
Golden State clinched the Pacific Division title with a 122-108 road victory over Portland on Tuesday. Last night the Warriors went into Memphis and dominated a defensive-oriented Grizzlies team, 107-84, to move one game away from clinching the Western Conference’s top playoff seed.
The Warriors (59-13), who have now won eight in a row and 13 of their last 14 games, won't be slowing down at this point, as everything is clicking with the most dominating offense in the NBA.
The Splash Brothers - Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson - average more than 21 points (Curry with 23.4 and Thompson dropping 21.6), while both are deadly from long-range (Curry clipping 42.2 percent and Thompson draining 43 percent).
And while Milwaukee owns an all-time 45-17 home advantage in the series, Golden State has won three straight and set a franchise record last night, with its 25th road win over the Western Conference's No. 2 seed, Memphis.
Golden State arrives in Milwaukee on ATS win streaks of 4-0 when playing the second of back-to-back nights, 6-0 after a straight-up win and six straight overall. Meanwhile, the Bucks are mired in betting slides of 1-4 against the Pacific Division, 2-10 against the Western Conference and 2-6 with just one day's rest.
Lay the road chalk, as the Warriors wrap up the Western Conference's No. 1 seed.
5* GOLDEN STATE
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the OKC Thunder over the Utah Jazz in NBA action. This game is in Utah, which does make me a tad uneasy because the Jazz have been playing good basketball lately... but they're not in the same situation as the OKC Thunder and, therefore, won't win or cover this number.
After getting absolutely embarrassed by San Antonio Wednesday night, the Thunder are looking to take out their frustrations out on someone... it just so happens the Jazz are the next team in their way.
And while the Thunder currently hold the 8-seed in the Western Conference, that doesn't mean anything if they start playing poorly and the Pelicans or even the Suns start playing better.
OKC simply needs this game more and will play their tails off to get the win. Take OKC as your free play of the day.
2* OKLAHOMA CITY
Andrew Lange
Notre Dame vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -11
For all that talk about Notre Dame's incredible season-long offensive production I think a lot of folks fail to realize that Kentucky is just as good at scoring the basketball. And the one luxury the Cats have is that even with a couple players having an “off night”, this team can still score at an incredibly efficient clip. Against West Virginia, Cauley-Stine, Towns, and Ulis combined for 3-of-10 from the floor and 11 points and the Cats still averaged 1.22 ppg and netted 78 points. Notre Dame can score too, but with what is essentially a five-man rotation, if two or three players underperform -- which is likely against UK's vaunted defense then Kentucky quickly becomes the better offensive team in this matchup. Defensively, it's of course not even close. The Irish don't force turnovers, are soft on the interior, and consistently lose the battle on the glass. Their only hope is to pack it in and hope Kentucky has an off shooting night from the perimeter. I can't come up with a facet of this game that favors the underdog which makes me more than willing to lay what is a very reasonable price with the favorite.
Harry Bondi
GOLDEN STATE (-4.5) over Milwaukee
Gonzaga's easy win over UCLA last night runs our record to 14-4 the last 18 days. On Harry Bondi's "Steam Team" we nailed another 5-Star "Lock when Louisville ran away from NC State. Call 1-877-332-0077 for our Elite 8 picks! Very difficult to step in front of Golden State right now. The Warriors have won seven straight and have covered six of those seven games. They have also topped 100 points in 15 out of 16 games and that spells doom for the fading Bucks, who have covered just five of their last 18 games against teams that average 99 points per game or more. Lay the points on the road.
Vegas Butcher
Denver Nuggets +9
Triple-revenge is at stake here as the Nuggets try to avoid getting swept on the season. Denver is coming into this game playing their 3rd one in 4 nights. The last two games have been blowouts though and I think fatigue won’t be as big of an issue here. Besides, the Nuggets have better depth than Portland, who have lost a lot of it when Matthews went down. Just like Denver, Portland is also in a ‘fatigue spot’. They’re actually playing their 4th game in 5 nights with all 3 previous games being fairly close (even the loss to GSW was close until the late 2nd half). Portland’s starters had to exert a lot more energy than Denver’s players last night, and I think fatigue will be a bigger concern for the home team here. Denver is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 on the road. I think we’ll see a close game tonight and I’ll grab the points.
Vegas Butcher
Arizona Wildcats -1
There's a reason a #2 seed is favorite over a #1 seed in this game - Arizona is a better team. While both teams are top-10 offensively (#1 WIS and #7 ARZ), the real difference is on the defensive end. Arizona has the 3rd ranked defensive in all of college basketball. By comparison, Wisconsin is only 50th. They rank in the bottom-50 in defensive TO-rate and in 3PT% allowed, two key metrics in college basketball. Without any ability to force turnovers and by allowing opponents to shoot over 37% from the 3PT line, it's hard to compete against the 'best' teams in this tourney on a consistent basis. UNC was 8 for 13 from the 3PT line and only had 4 TO's in the game against the Badgers, a game that UNC could have easily won. At times they looked like the 'better' team in that one and if not for the Meeks injury (he only played 14 minutes), UNC could have easily pulled off an upset. I think we'll see Wisconsin fall to the Wildcats tonight. Arizona is coming off a great game themselves where they played a physical, tough Xavier squad, and I expect them to be ready to exact some revenge on the Badgers for ending Arizona's season last year. Two great offenses in this one but only one team has an elite D. I'll back that team tonight.