Sports Wagers
TULSA +3½ over Memphis
The Tigers are in the tourney no matter what happens in this game or what happens in the conference tournament. The only question now is their seeding and really, that's not that much of a concern. The Tigers host the C-USA tournament starting on Thursday (they have a first-round bye) and they have a great chance to win three games in three days to capture the crown. As Memphis looks ahead to the end of the week, its players aren't focusing much on this game. The Tigers look very appealing here because they're in first and because they've won their last three games by 23, 20 and 29 points respectively. However, they're just 6-4 on the road while Tulsa is 10-4 at home where they have won six straight. The Golden Hurricanes are going to need to win the conference tournament to qualify for the Dance. They currently sit in 3rd place with a 10-5 conference record and frankly, that's all they are, a third place team. A lot of magic is going to have to happen for them to make it to the Madness and they're going to have to go through the Tigers in Memphis to get there. At least they can have them thinking a bit with a win here and the small number suggests that the Golden Hurricanes are going to be a lot more interested than the visitorPlay: #522 Tulsa +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
VILLANOVA +120 over Cincinnati
The Bearcats secured a spot in the tournament with a pair of wins over the past two ranked teams they played being Marquette and Louisville. That accomplished, this game is a huge letdown spot after that emotional win over Marquette and with the Big East tournament on deck. We could go on about the Bearcats outstanding defense but this one is all about “situational betting” that works against Cincinnati. Villanova knows it has to win the conference tournament to qualify for the tourney. This is the Wildcats last regular season home game and expect them to give it everything they have in order to get a little momentum going. Villanova has shown it can compete, as they have four-point losses to both Cincinnati and Marquette (twice) and OT losses to Notre Dame and UConn. In a favorable spot against a team they lost to by just four in an important mid-January game in Cincinnati, the Wildcats will bring it today against what should be a rather complacent visitor Play: Villanova +116 (Risking 2 units).
We're also playing the following game:
TENNESSEE +112 over Vanderbilt Pinnacle
The Volunteers can still qualify for the tourney and it starts here. Look for a solid effort in order for the Vols to at least be in the bubble conversation. Play: #560 Tennessee +112 (Risking 2 units).
Jack Jones
Iowa Hawkeyes -2
On Senior Day in their regular season finale, I like the Iowa Hawkeyes to roll past the Northwestern Wildcats at home this afternoon. Iowa is one of the more underrated teams in the Big Ten this season, and should be a bigger favorite in this spot Saturday.
Northwestern is coming off a deflating 73-75 home loss to Ohio State in a game they really had to have to make the NCAA Tournament. Now, the Wildcats will likely have to win the Big Ten tournament to have any chance of making the Big Dance. They will have a hard time getting motivated to play Iowa after such a heartbreaking defeat.
Iowa is a sneaky 8-9 in Big Ten play this season, having one more conference win than Northwestern. They have beaten the likes of Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin twice. Most of their success has come at home. The Hawkeyes are 13-5 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.0 points/game.
The home team has won 12 of the last 14 meetings in this series. Iowa has won 10 of their last 12 home meetings with Northwestern. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Iowa is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Iowa Saturday.
NCAA-B | Mar 03
Louisville +9
Syracuse, which is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a favorite, is being overvalued here. The Orange are 4-1 against the Big East elite (Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Cincinnati and Louisville) but none of those wins have come by more than 7 points. Syracuse only defeated Louisville by 1 point last month and it was the Orange's first win over the Cards in 8 meetings. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, the Cardinals are 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.
Steve Janus
Cincinnati -1.5
My money is on the Cincinnati Bearcats to easily cover this small 1.5-point spread at Villanova on Saturday. The Bearcats didn't play their best basketball and still held on for a 82-78 win at home over Villanova earlier this season.
Cincinnati comes in having six of their last eight games overall, with their only two losses coming against two very good teams on the road in Marquette and South Florida. With this spread all we need is for Cincinnati to win the game, and they should do just that. Villanova is just 2-7 over their last 9 games with their only two wins coming against a couple of bad teams in Providence and Rutgers. During this stretch they have lost three home games, where they are just 9-5 this season.
Cincinnati 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons and 9-2 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Villanova on the other hand is just 3-12 ATS as an underdog this season and only 2-8 ATS in home lined games this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Iowa -2
Iowa is at home, playing its best basketball of the season and ready to end a 4-game losing streak to Northwestern.
The Hawkeyes were handled by 19 points in the season's first meeting, but that game was played on the road. Iowa has been a much different team at home, where it is 13-5 SU on the season (10-3 ATS in lined home games).
Iowa is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 home games with the 2 most recent ones coming against ranked foes Indiana and Wisconsin. The Hawks also have a home win over a Michigan squad currently ranked 13th.
Northwestern has really struggled away from home. It is just 2-7 in true road games and those 2 wins came by a total of just 5 points against Illinois and Penn State - 2 of the bottom 4 teams in the league. We'll lay the points with Iowa on senior day.
Tony George
Texas +11.5
The Noose gets tight for marquee teams this time of year, nothing comes easy, and while Kansas is at home, bear in mind last week they were down 19 to Mizzou at one point! Texas wins this and they get to go dancing, if not it is the NIT Tourney. Will they win it SU? I highly doubt it but they will compete and keep this close. Kansas not a stellar team laying huge numbers at home, never have been. KU has nothing to play for here in all reality and while they will play hard, Texas will do everything in their power to win. They played to a 3 point game in Austin and I feel they will keep this close.
ACCUSCORE
UCLA -4 vs. Washington
The Bruins responded to the recent bad press in Sports Illustrated by coming out and playing their best game of the season Thursday beating Washington State 78-46. During the last meeting between these two teams, UCLA held a six point lead late in the second half before turnovers and foul trouble gave the Huskies the eventual win. Washington is trying for an outright regular season title, but has played significantly closer games on the road. The computer point spread is UCLA -8. The computer ATS record in games involving either UW or UCLA is 32-21 (60.3%).
Fordham vs. Temple Under 145 Points
The average simulation has 140 total points. The AccuScore record in totals for Temple games is 18-10 (64.3%) and 13-9 in Fordham games (59.1%).
UC Irvine +5 at UC Riverside
Computer simulations only favor the home Highlanders by 2 points. Irvine has been three games better than .500 against the spread while Riverside has been four games under .500. The AccuScore record ATS in Irvine games is 14-10 (58.3%) and 14-8 (63.6%) in Riverside games.
UNLV vs. Wyoming Over 125 Points
The AccuScore line for this game is 129 points. The AccuScore record in totals for Wyoming games is 13-10 (56.5%) and 17-10 (63%) for UNLV games.
UC Santa Barbara vs. UC Davis Under 136.5 Points
The AccuScore sim line for this game is 132 points. The computer record for totals in Davis games is 18-9 (66.7%) and 11-9 (55%) in Santa Barbara games.
WUNDERDOG
Georgetown at Marquette
Pick: Marquette -4.5
The Georgetown Hoyas and the Marquette Golden Eagles will close out Big East play in what should be a high-octane game. A Marquette win assures them of the No. 2 seed in the Big East Conference Tournament win No. 25 of the season, so a spot well earned. Marquette has dominated at home where they have suffered just a single loss this season, and they have run the table in Big East play at 8-0. The Hoyas have had a remarkable season, but the road has not been very friendly where they are just 4-4 in Big East play, suffering three of the losses by double-digits. The Golden Eagles have been on a tear in Big East play where they have gone 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62. Play on Marquette.
Craig Trapp
Long Beach State vs. Cal St-Fullerton
Play: Long Beach State -5
Top two teams in Big West square off here, but only one is an elite team and that's the 49ers. LBSU is in a different class and they will finish off the season on right foot. 49ers have won all their conference games by this listed # and no way that changes tonight.
Patrick Webb
Northwestern vs. Iowa
Play: Northwestern +116
Northwestern is a tough style match up for Iowa. They forced Iowa into terrible shots, had a TO margin of +11 and out shot Iowa from the three point line (13 for NW to 7 for Iowa). Iowa doesn't have the steady guard play to consistently defeat Northwestern's trapping defense and doesn't have the kind of consistent three point shooting to break them out of that style of defense. Iowa is getting consistent play out of shooting guard Matt Gatens who is hitting for a 70% clip from three in his last four games and will be playing his final regular season game at home. I look for Northwestern to come out hitting from the perimeter early and force Iowa to play catch up all game. I just don't see Iowa being able to overcome a lead in this game as Northwestern is content to run clock, will get quality shots and will really eliminate fast break points for Iowa in this game.
MTi Sports
Bucks at Magic
Play: under
The Magic are 0-10 OU (-12.9 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Dwight Howard scored at least 30 points, 0-7 OU (-17.1 ppg) as a rested favorite off a loss as a dog in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters and 0-6 OU (-20.8 ppg) at home when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. Take the Bucks and Magic UNDER.
Sean Murphy
Boise State @ New Mexico
PICK: New Mexico -14.5
We've been high on the New Mexico Lobos since last March, but have admittedly gotten away from backing them lately.
That's proven to be an error in judgement, as they've continued to cash tickets on a regular basis. In fact, they own a tremendous 18-5 ATS mark over their last 23 lined contests.
The Lobos returned home from a disappointing 0-2 road set earlier this week, and proceeded to crush Air Force by 30 points. By all accounts, New Mexico has been a dominant home team, going 13-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in lined games.
Today's game doesn't just mark their regular season finale, it's a chance to build some momentum heading into the MWC Tournament next week. I still believe the Lobos have some frustration to take out following those losses at Colorado State and TCU last week.
Boise State started the season exceptionally well, but as the schedule got tougher, the Broncos wilted.
They've gone 5-14 SU and 4-15 ATS over their last 19 games, and limp into Saturday's contest mired in a five-game ATS losing skid.
Boise State did have some success back in the middle of February, winning three consecutive games, but those were games they were expected to win (or at least two of them were). Since then, they've dropped three in a row, losing by a combined margin of 40 points.
This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season, after New Mexico rolled to a 65-49 win in Boise back on February 4th. That was really no contest, as the Lobos held the Broncos to 31.1% shooting, and outrebounded them by a 41-29 margin. Keep in mind, Boise State was actually playing better basketball at the time, having just taken both UNLV and San Diego State down to the wire in five and two-point losses, respectively.
We can expect the Lobos to once again dominate the boards in today's matchup - they've absolutely crushed the opposition in that regard here at home in conference play. The fact that Boise State has allowed its last five opponents to shoot close to 42% from beyond the arc should open the door for a good three-point shooting New Mexico team to fill it up from the outside, ultimately stretching out its margin of victory this afternoon.
Larry Ness
Iowa St -1.5
Baylor's Big 12 title hopes were crushed when the Bears were swept in season series by both Kansas and Missouri. However, Baylor's 25 regular season victories (against five losses), have already tied a school record. Baylor caps it regular season with a visit to Ames, where the surprising 21-6 Cyclones are 15-2 SU (lost Nov 30 to Northern Iowa and in Big 12 play to Missouri). In fact, Iowa St is 7-1 SU at home in Big 12 play, going 6-1 ATS in the seven wins (have won and covered vs Texas, Kansas and Kan St). While Baylor is an impressive 9-2 SU on the road (losses at Kansas and Missouri, both ranked in the top-10), the Bears are winless in Ames all-time, going 0-9. Their last four visits to Hilton Coliseum were decided by an average of 15.8 PPG. Baylor's been over-valued for awhile now (7-13 ATS since Dec 23) while the linemakers have seemingly not caught on to Iowa St, which helps explain the team's 13-3-1 ATS run since Jan 1.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +6 over Portland
Certainly not interested in laying anything with a Blazers team that is stumbling along right now. Not only has Portland lost eight of 12, but they haven't won back-to-back games in over a month. Things are getting worse too. The Blazers defense is allowing 93 a game but in their last four games that averaged has soared to 103 per game. When looking for a fix or a sign that things are getting better, look at the defensive play. In this case we see a regressing Blazers club and that should bode well here for a Timberwolves team that can light it up. Minnesota's starting five are all capable of scoring 15-20 a game. Michael Beasley coming off the bench can do the same. This is an erratic intruder that can sparkle one game and get whacked the next. After the break, they opened at the Clip Joint and won outright. Two games later they lose by nine in Phoenix. So, which T-Wolve team will we see tonight? Considering that Minnesota is so dangerous and that they've lost an incredible 16 straight games to this opponent, figure them to be well-prepped to finally get this proverbial monkey off their backs. The T-Wolves can not only stay within range, they can win outright against this suddenly fragile host. Play: Minnesota +6 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Boston U/ Hartford Over 120.5: I wanted to get this one out early as i expect line movement. Gonna go off the grid a bit here, but I see these teams hitting at least 125. Boston U comes in as not a great offensive team as they average just v64.4 ppg overall and 63.8 ppg on the road, but they have averaged 66.5 ppg in their last 8 games overall and 69.5 ppg in their last 4 on the road, so this team is more than capable of hitting the mid to upper 60's in this one. Making it easier for them to reach those marks is the fact that Hartford has allowed 67.5 ppg overall, 65.4 ppg at home and in the two meetings this year the Terriers scored 65 and 64 points. Offensively Hartford is not good, but they have hovered around the 60 point mark all season as they have averaged 59.6 ppg overall and 60.6 ppg at home and they will be facing a Boston U team that has struggled some with defense out on the road as they have allowed 65.6 ppg when playing away from home. This will not be a fast paced game by any stretch, but I clearly expect the Terriers to hit at least 65 points, while Hartford should be good for something in the high 50. 125+ here.
4 UNIT PLAYS
San Jose/ Idaho Over 134.5: Another night time total's play that I like and I will get it out now as I do expect line movement. Let's first start out with the fact that the OU is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these teams, with each and every one of those games hitting at least 136, while each of the last 6 have hit at least 140 points. Idaho comes in averaging just 68.2 ppg overall and 66.8 ppg in conference play, but they have also averaged 69 ppg in their last 7 overall and 70 ppg on the road this year. This team should clearly hit over 70 points here as they will be taking on a Spartans team that has allowed 77.4 ppg in league play and 73.6 ppg in their last 5 overall. San Jose has allowed just 68.3 ppg at home, but 70.2 ppg (Regulation) in their WAC home games. San Jose is average on offense as they have put up 66.8 ppg in conference play and 67.6 ppg at home this year and I do believe they can hit at least 67 in this game vs an Idaho team that has allowed 68.9 ppg on the road and 67.8 ppg in WAC play. As you can see their is more than enough offense and just little enough defense for this game to hit at 135 points. San Jose's WAC games have averaged 144.2 ppg, while Idaho's have averaged 134.6 ppg. I expect this one to fall in the middle of those numbers. KEY TRENDS--- SAN JOSE ST is 14-2 OVER versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 2 seasons, while IDAHO is 14-4 OVER off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997.
Western Kentucky -2 over Florida International: (Added) Neither team had a great year, as both teams are well below .500 for the year, but WKU had a better showing in the conference this year and they really played much better down the stretch. In their last 10 games, the Hilltoppers went 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS. During that stretch they Pulled outright upsets of MTSU and FAU at home, plus FIU on the road. WKU also lost by just 8 at MTSU (13.5 Dogs) and they lost by just 1 at FAU as 11 points dogs. So this team has been right there down the stretch. On the other side we have a FIU squad that comes in having gone just 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, but in their last 6 games they have gone just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS. Defense should be key in this one as FIU comes in really struggling at that end of the floor as they have allowed a whopping 76.2 ppg in their last 5 games and that should really fuel a WKU team that has averaged 76 ppg in their last 2 games and 70.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Defensively for WKU they have played better of late as they have allowed just 66.5 ppg in their last 5 games and 65.8 ppg in their last 10 games. Not great numbers, but much better than the way FIU had been playing and tghey should be able to shut down a Golden Panther squad that has averaged 63.1 ppg and just 64.1 ppg when playing away from home. Neither team will make the NCAA Tourney this year, unless they win their conference tournament, but WKU has been playing much better down the stretch and they should be able to win rather easily in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh/ Connecticut Over 131: The Huskies have started to turn the corner offensively as they come in averaging 71.2 ppg in their last 5 games, while at home on the year they have put up 72.3 ppg. Offense has been good for this team of late, but the defense has not, as they come in allowing 73 ppg in their last 7 games. Pitt is back to struggling on offense as they have averaged just 60.8 ppg in their last 5 games, but this is still a team that is healthy and has plenty of scorers on it's team, plus they would also like to run and UConn should oblige in that respect. Defensively Pitt has not been as strong as in years past as they have allowed 66.2 ppg over, which is their highest points allowed mark in a long time. They have also allowed 66.2 ppg on the road and 65.4 ppg in their last 10 games overall. This is a huge game for both squads and I really don't see them holding anything back in this one. I look for both teams to push the ball and both teams to hit at least 65 in this one.
KANSAS STATE -11 over Oklahoma State: KSU has struggled at home in the Big 12, but this is just too big a game for them to come out flat here. Despite their recent struggles at home the Wildcats are still 10-4 on their home floor and have outscored their opponents by 11 ppg. OSU comes in just 2-8 in their true road games this year and have been outscored by 10.9 ppg in those games, while they have been outscored by 17.1 ppg in their 7 Big 12 road losses. Defense has really been a problem for the Cowboys on the road this year as they have allowed 75.1 ppg in those games and that's not good as they will be facing a Cats team that has averaged 71.6 ppg at home on the year. OSU has averaged 67 ppg in their last 5 overall, but they still have averaged just 64.2 ppg on the road this year and putting up more than that will be difficult as the Cats have allowed just 60.6 ppg on 37.8% shooting at home this year. KSU needs this game much more and behind another solid defensive effort they should get it with ease.
Iona/ Marist Over 152.5: (Added) These teams played 2 games this year and 157 points and 176 points were scored in the 2 games. Marist has played some lower scoring games of late, but this is still a team that will get out and run with you as evidenced by the first two meetings. Marist may not score a ton, but they did put up 89 on Niagara two games ago and they scored 74 and 76 points in the first two meetings. Iona loves the uptempo game and they come in averaging 83.4 ppg overall and 92 ppg in their last 5 games. Now because of their pace they have allowed 72.5 ppg overall and 75.2 ppg in their last 5. Those last 5 for Iona have averaged 167.2 ppg and I really do look for them to push the tempo here as they have had some rest, while Marist played yesterday. Marist did allow just 62.7 ppg in their last 5 games, but away from home this year they have allowed 78.2 ppg and no matter what their seasonal averages are their just hasn't been too many teams that have been able to stop Iona. I clearly expect at least the high 150's in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Northwestern/ Iowa Over 145.5: Google News Play. This is a Huge game for both teams and i feel that neither team can afford to hold back in this one, which has me looking at the Over here. Northwestern definitely has the ability to hit 72+ points in this one as they have averaged 66.6 ppg on the road, while Iowa has allowed 67.4 ppg at home and 71.6 ppg in their Big 10 games. The Cats also shoot well on the road, hitting 46% of their shots including a very solid 39.3% from long range. The Cats defensively have not been that great as they have allowed 67.6 ppg overall on 45% shooting, which is 266th in the country. On the road they have really struggled at the defensive end as they have allowed 74.6 ppg on 38.2% shooting. Iowa plays an uptempo game, especially at home where they have averaged 76.4 ppg on 45% shooting and I can really see them hit 75+ points on this one. With this being such a huge game we also should get the FT's at the end of it. I look for 150+ in this one.
Oklahoma/ Texas A&M over 124: (Added) The Aggies have played some real low scoring games this year, especially on the road where their last 4 games away from home have averaged just 105.8 ppg, but this team can get up and down the floor as evidenced by the game vs KSU recently and Oklahoma plays a faster paced game at home as their home games have averaged 139.8 ppg overall and the 138.9 ppg in their last 7 conference home games. This one should hit at least 130 points.
1 UNIT PLAY
OREGON -17 over Utah: (Added) Pathetic showing by the Utes the other night. they may have just given up and Oregon will take advantage here. UTAH is 3-11 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while OREGON is 15-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 4+ per game since 1997.