Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 30

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vancouver vs. EdmontonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: VancouverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played each other twice this year: The Oilers won 3-2 in Vancouver on January 20th, before the Canucks won 3-2 in Edmonton on February 4th. The Canucks are 19-9-6 overall, and 9-4-3 on the road. Vancouver has won six straight, most recently a relatively easy 4-1 victory over Colorado on Thursday.
Edmonton is 13-13-7 overall, and 6-5-4 at home. The Oilers have won two straight, most recently a 6-4 victory over Columbus on Thursday (I had Edmonton in that one). Vancouver is rolling right now, as goaltender Cory Schneider has finally found his groove, giving up just six goals while recording two shutouts during his teams streak. Schneider is 1-0-0 with a 1.31 GAA in three appearances in Edmonton, while Oilers netminder Devan Dubnyk has stopped 64 of 69 shots in two games vs. the Canucks this year. So is Vancouver worth the price in this matchup? There's no question in my mind that the Canucks are the better overall team (just ask yourself, at even money, which of these teams would you take in a 7-game series?). There are no big external motivating factors working in favor of either side, and each will come into this game rested, and will not play the following night. In this situation, I'm going to lay what I believe to be a very reasonable price on the superior goaltender, and the overall "better" team. Why not consider a small wager on Vancouver in this one?

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlotte Bobcats at Philadelphia 76ersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Philadelphia 76ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philly is showing a little life down the stretch, on a 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS run this last week, winning at Sacramento as a dog and beating the Bucks, 100-92 as a home dog. The 76ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 9-3-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Into town come the awful Charlotte Bobcats, 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games overall. The Bobcats are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games and 17-41 ATS in their last 58 games playing on no days rest. And the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Play the 76ers!

CRAIG DAVIS

Ohio State will stop the Cinderella run of the Wichita State Shockers by physically outplaying them on the defensive end.

It's been a bit of a shock that Ohio State keeps wanting to play the offensive pace of their opponents, mainly because they have been so defensive-minded in the second half of the year... since a 71-49 blowout loss at Wisconsin. That game, ironically, was the last time they suffered defeat.

Wichita State beat a Gonzaga team that was highly overrated and then beat a LaSalle team that really shouldn't have been there to begin with.

2* OHIO STATE

CHRIS JORDAN

I like the Under in the Evanville-East Carolina clash.

These two are playing for the right to get to the CIT Title game, so I expect a very tightly contested game.

Amazingly, East Carolina is catching the points in this game, despite winning a school record 16 games at home this season, while posting an 11-1 record against non-conference opponents. The Pirates have won six of their last seven home games with their only loss coming to Southern Miss in overtime.

And while I know the high-scoring Pirates are 15-6 over this season, the fact Evansville is the favorite tells me it will be attempting to dictate the pace with a slower approach, limiting East Carolina with its offensive opportunities.

Besides, the Pirates have stepped it up defensively in this event and have stayed low in their last two games.

I've looked at the trends and stats, and yes everything points to an over. Maybe that's why I like the under, as I'm always up for going against the grain.

This number is too high. Look for it to fall between 140 and 143.

3* UNDER Evansville/East Carolina

BRETT ATKINS

My free winner for Saturday is going to be a total in the CIT semifinal between Weber State and Northern Iowa, as I think the total is going to soar past the posted total of 136-1/2.

There's no doubt in my mind Weber State will be facing its toughest test yet tonight, when it visits Cedar Falls, and that's specifically why I like the total to go high. See, Northern Iowa is a team that likes to seize control and will most certainly looking to do so in this game with its strong perimeter game.

But, unfortunately for the Panthers, Weber State (29-6) is no slouch and will be able to answer the bell against Northern Iowa (21-14). So even though the Panthers are 17-3 at home this season with notable wins against Saint Mary’s, Wichita State and Creighton, the Wildcats are going to be fully prepared to step up to the challenge.

Weber State is the first Big Sky program to advance to the semifinals of a national postseason tournament, and with the chance to get to the title game, there's no way the Wildcats won't step to the challenge.

Play this one high.

5* OVER Weber State/Northern Iowa

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vancouver vs. EdmontonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: VancouverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vancouver has overcome a long list of injuries to several key players to win six straight games. They have been playing solid defense in front of Corey Schneider, and the 27 year old netminder has been standing on his head, stealing games for Vancouver during their winning streak.
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The Canucks are starting to look more like the team that has won back to back Presidents trophies, and that's not good news for an Oilers team that really needs wins in order to get back into the playoff race.
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While goaltending has been a strong point for Vancouver, it has been the Achilles heel of this young Oilers team. Devan Dubnyk has lost three of his last four starts, allowing nine goals in those three losses. Nikolai Khabibulin was pulled just 27 seconds into the third period after allowing four goals on 21 shots in the Oilers victory over Columbus on Thursday. Whichever of the two goalies gets the start on Saturday, they will likely be on a short leash.
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Vancouver have won four of the last five meetings with the Oilers, and three of their last four visits to Edmonton. Vancouver has nine wins on the road this year, three more than the Oilers have at home. Edmonton is just 6-5-3 at Rexall Place this year.
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Vancouver has not been getting the same production from their first line as they have in previous seasons, but Alex Burrows and the Sedin Twins factored in three of their five goals in their win over Columbus on Thursday. The coach was impressed with their effort: "They've been playing well," coach Alain Vigneault said. "They've been spending some time in the other team's end and they've been getting some chances. They weren't getting a lot of reward for their effort but tonight they did."
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The Canucks are tough to beat when they are playing like they have recently, and Edmonton is going to struggle to win games without quality goaltending. I expect Vancouver to extend their run in Edmonton on Saturday.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston vs. PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bruins could use a boost after a mild recent slump, and the Flyers could prove just the tonic this afternoon at Wells Fargo Center. That's because the Bruins have won four straight against the Flyers and are 9-0-1 in their last 10 visits to Phillly, which has lost four in a row. Note also that Bruin GK Tuukka Rask made 23 saves in a 3-0 home win over the Flyers on March 9. And not sure that things get any better for Philly against the Bruins' NHL-best penalty-kill unit (91.2%). Fair price for Claude Julien's crew this afternoon.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Syracuse -4½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You should always play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Syracuse when they are revenging a same season loss against an opponent playing their second road game in three days. This system is 79-41 (66%) in favor of the favorite. The reason this system is so relevant is because the limited time between games will not allow Marquette to prepare for Syracuse. After the regular season loss Syracuse would have already made the changes, or at least they will be aware of the changes, they need to make to win this game.
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Syracuse has looked great during the NCAA Tournament taking down a solid California team as well as the #1 seed Indiana Hoosiers. Marquette has squeaked off wins over Davidson and Butler to make it this far. Marquette shot 54% against Miami and that is extremely unlikely to take place again against this stout Orange defense. Syracuse has held opponents to an average of 59.1 points per game on 37.2% shooting. They have the talent to earn a spot in the Tournament Championship and it starts today with a win over Marquette.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana Pacers at Phoenix SunsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Phoenix SunsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Suns host the Pacers Saturday night with Phoenix looking to bounce back from a 117-103 home setback to Sacramento Thursday night. Meanwhile Indiana invades off a 25-point upset at Dallas the same evening while eyeing up a revenge rematch with the Clippers up next Monday night. With the Suns 15-9 SU and 14-10 ATS at home off a home loss of 14 or more points, including 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS when off back-to-back losses, look for the Pacers to fall to 1-6 SUATS in games before the Clippers here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Phoenix.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington +107 over BUFFALOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Sabres are one of the least appealing favorites in the league. They’re coming off back-to-back losses in Florida to the Bolts and Panthers and losing to that pair in successive games is not easy to do. Against the Panthers, they allowed 40 shots on net. Against Tampa Bay, Buffalo managed a measly 14 shots. Tomas Vanek has carried this team practically the entire season and now he’s out with an upper-body injury. To make matters worse, Buffalo has the Bruins in tomorrow and could be looking ahead to that one. Buffalo remains one of the more beatable teams in the NHL and there’s very little chance of them outworking the Capitals in this one.
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Washington has lost just three of its past eight games. Two of those losses were against Pittsburgh and Boston. They rank higher than Buffalo in every key category including power-play percentage, penalty killing and goals for and against. This is a focused and determined guest that has improved every week since the start of the season under the strict guidance of Adam Oates. Washington is also getting great goaltending from Braden Holtby. We’re on the better team here that has a good system in place that requires every skater to pay attention to details and never stop skating. The Sabres pay attention to nothing. The Caps have already defeated the Sabres twice in two tries this year and there’s no reason whatsoever they can’t do it again.
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Toronto +120 over OTTAWAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. There were a lot of folks wagering against the Senators in Ottawa’s last game at home against the Rangers. Once again, Ottawa hurt some bankrolls just like they’ve been doing the entire year. That game was in Ottawa, just as this one is but the difference is that game against the Blue Shirts was a pick-em. How can the Sens be a pick-em against the Rangers and the very next game be a -130 over the Maple Leafs? Is that based on one win or based on accumulative wins by Ottawa that has oddsmakers and bettors both finally conceding that this host is extremely tough to beat? Whatever the case may be, it has created an overlay here. The Maple Leafs are in much better from than the Rangers and they’re getting a much bigger take-back in the exact same situation. That is value.
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The Maple Leafs continue to do things they haven’t done in years. The Leafs are finishing off teams when they have them down. They’re winning games when they’re not at their best. They’re scoring timely goals and they’re getting strong goaltending when the game is on the line. Toronto is improving and they’re becoming more dangerous and confident with each win. Leafs fans may be expecting the bubble to burst, as they are used to disappointment year after year after year but this edition of the Maple Leafs is different. Toronto has its sights set on the playoffs and nothing is going to stop them from getting there this season. They are a focused group that has been tough on the road all year and they’ll be tough again tonight. Incidentally, in four career starts at Ottawa, James Reimer is 4-0-0 with a 1.00 GAA and a .971 save percentage. Value my friends, value.
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Los Angeles -102 over MINNESOTAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Wild’s impressive seven-game winning streak came to an end last night in Dallas. When a winning streak is broken, we often see a second consecutive loss, as the intensity level drops off a bit now that “it’s over”. That may not apply as much here with the champs in town but what does apply is the Wild will play their third game in four days, their fifth game in seven days and the tail end of back-to-backs. Tired and coming off its most impressive run in years, this is not the perfect time for Minnesota to face the relentless Kings.
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Los Angeles’s record isn’t as good as some of the other elite teams in this league but its play on the ice has been second to none. Rarely do the Kings get outplayed. L.A. has won five of its past seven games with only losses over that span occurring against Vancouver and Dallas. Against the Canucks they allowed 13 shots on net. Versus Dallas, the Kings outshot them 40-21. When they lose it’s almost always because they run into a hot goaltender. The Kings last two wins have come in St. Louis and Chicago. They dominated play in both those games, especially in St. Louis where the entire game seemed to have been played in the Blue Notes’ end. L.A has scored nine goals in its past two games. They come in here the more rested and superior squad and they’re about to serve notice to the playoff-bound Wild that “we’re still the team to beat”.
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SAN JOSE -½ +108 over PhoenixFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. After a seven game losing streak that saw the Coyotes score seven times in those seven losses, Phoenix responded by picking up three out of a possible four points in Minnesota and Nashville. They will now play their third game in succession on the road before returning home to face the Kings on Tuesday. Truth is, the Coyotes were fortunate to pick up a tie in Minnesota after they rallied from a 2-0 deficit with a couple of soft goals allowed by Niklas Backstrom. Against Nashville, the Coyotes scored six times in the first period on nine shots against back-up Chris Mason. That first period outburst was one goal shy of the number they had in the entirety of their skid. The ‘Yotes have four wins in 16 road games and they’re still relying on career back-up Jason LaBarbera. LaBarbera has allowed 11 goals in his last three starts and gave up four in Phoenix's only other game against San Jose this season, a 5-3 loss on Jan. 24. The back-up is 0-5-1 in his last six versus the Sharks and now must face them when San Jose is heating up.
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It may surprise you to learn that the Sharks have one regulation loss in 15 games at home this year. They’re coming off back-to-back shutout wins at The Tank against Detroit and Anaheim. This is a Sharks’ team that is carrying a label of being soft when it counts most. They know it and they want to shake off that reputation. These are the games that will help to do that. They catch the Coyotes in a difficult spot and they have a great chance to bury them. There are no excuses for losing this one. Antti Niemi, Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns are all at the top of their games. San Jose has won three in a row and four of its last five. Two of those wins came against the Ducks in which they outscored Anaheim 9-3. The Sharks three regulation wins in a row equals their regulation wins over their previous 25 games. San Jose is in a playoff race. It is in jeopardy of missing the playoffs should they suffer another setback. This is one of those games in which a loss will set them back and if the Sharks truly are ready to take their game to the next level and be considered among the elite, they will prove so here. We’re on board for that.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Marquette +4½ over SyracuseFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Fading a squad the next game after they just knocked off a #1 seed has been one of the strongest angles in this tournament over the years and it applies here with the Orange. Syracuse just defeated the top-seeded Hoosiers and they did it in very impressive fashion, burying them by 11 with the outcome never being in doubt. The thinking is if Indiana couldn’t score on Syracuse’s tough zone defense, how the hell are the Golden Eagles going to rack up points? That thinking is a little skewed because it just doesn’t work that way. The truth is, Indiana missed their shots. They had the same open shots they’ve had all year but nothing was falling and that happens on occasion in a one and done scenario. An off-shooting night and it’s game over. Give the Orange credit, plenty of credit but as the chalk after knocking off a #1 seed, the price to play them here is too high.
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Unlike the Hoosiers, Marquette has seen this zone defense once before this year and it defeated the Orangemen 74-71 on February 25 back in Wisconsin. We also like that the Golden Eagles are getting better with each performance. Getting 5½ points against the Hurricanes on Thursday, Marquette played its best game of the event en route to a convincing 10-point win. Marquette also plays great defense and they’re strong on the boards. As mentioned, the Golden Eagles have already defeated the Orange once this year and while this is a different setting and different situation, we’d much rather have the team that has proved it can beat the other team before, especially if getting points. Expect this one to be close right down to the final buzzer.
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Wichita State +4½ over Ohio StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Due to the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, the Shockers have been able to avoid the Cinderella label and it has allowed this team to completely focus on the task at hand instead of all that media attention. It has served them well and their wins over Pittsburgh, Gonzaga and LaSalle were not fluky at all. Wichita State was clearly the better team in all three games and there’s nothing suggesting they can’t compete here.
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Ohio State's 73-70 win over Arizona marked the second consecutive game where the Buckeyes eked out a close victory against an opponent seeded lower than the one the Buckeyes were ”supposed” to play. The big reason the Buckeyes won those close games is the opposition turned the ball over at a high percentage but that is unlikely to occur here. The Shockers have posted a very good 17 percent turnover rate in wins over Pittsburgh, Gonzaga and LaSalle. Malcolm Armstead has been so impressive, committing one turnover in 153 personal offensive possessions. The Shockers are extremely active on the boards and make the most out of their possessions. This is a pup that has proven to be difficult to beat and they have just as good a chance of advancing to the Final Four as the Buckeyes. Throw in the 4½ points and it gives the Shockers added appeal.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis Grizzlies -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Grizzlies have struggled on the road of late, but this is a good spot for them. They ended a two-game skid last night with a strong performance against Houston and won't let up in their pursuit of home-court advantage in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. They are only a half-game behind the fourth-place Los Angeles Clippers and one game back of third-place Denver. Minnesota played last night as well and pulled off a big upset against the Thunder. That win puts it in a letdown spot tonight. The Timberwolves are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win. Also, Memphis is better equipped to handle playing without rest because it is better defensively and has more quality depth. The Grizzlies are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games when playing without a day of rest. They are even 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. While Memphis has been a great investment on no rest, Minnesota fits into fade situation dealing with fatigue. Consider that fading home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing their 5th game in 7 days, provided they have won just 25% to 40% of their games on the season, has produced a 58-26 ATS mark since 1996. Memphis has won the first two meetings of the season handily, but don't expect Minnesota to have its revenge. The T-Wolves are a soft 8-17 ATS when playing with double revenge this season. Lay the points.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Syracuse at MarquetteFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: SyracuseFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We took an outright winner on Syracuse as our Member Play on Thursday, and we'll back them again this afternoon, this time as a small favorite against fellow Big East rival Marquette. The Golden Eagles not only played their best game in a long time in their win against the Hurricanes on Thursday, but caught Miami FL in an off-shooting night and had control of that game from the opening tip. Things will be much different this time around, as Syracuse comes in on fire off that win against the Hoosiers and will be playing with revenge from the lone meeting between these teams this season - that coming on Marquette's home floor in a three-point Eagles win. But Marquette is a much different team away from their home court, and for all intensive purposes they very well could have lost in each of their first two games against Davidson and Butler. Marquette's offense comes back down to Earth as the better defense propels Syracuse to pull away late. 5* Play on Syracuse.

Wunderdog

New York at Pittsburgh
Pick: Under5.5

There is no one playing better in front of the net and on the backside of the ice right now than the Pittsburgh Penguins. Pittsburgh has put together an impressive 14-game winning streak, and all you have to do is look at the scoring column of their opponents to understand why. The Penguins have allowed a meager 9 goals in their last 10 games, at less than 1 per contest. The offense has not tallied more than 4 in the last nine, so it's easy to see why they are 8-0-1 to the UNDER over the stretch. The last eight meetings between these clubs have seen just two of them get over the top of the total. Play the UNDER.