Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday March, 31

Hollywood Sports

Louisville at Kentucky
Prediction: Under

Louisville's recipe for success will be employ their 2-3 zone to goad Kentucky into taking shots from behind the arc where they have been merely pedestrian this season. This was Vanderbilt's strategy in their 71-64 win in the SEC tournament as the Wildcats' launched 28 shots from 3-point land but converted only 6 of these shots (21.4%). The Cardinals (30-9) come off their 72-68 win as a 1-point underdog against Florida -- and Rick Pitino's team has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Louisville has now played 6 of their last 7 NCAA Tournament games in the Pitino era Under the Total. In their last 16 games as an underdog in the 7-12.5 point range, the Cardinals have seen the Under go 12-3-1. Additionally, Louisville has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Kentucky (36-2) reached the Final Four by defeating Baylor by an 82-70 margin as a 7.5-point favorite -- and they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total following a point spread victory. The Wildcats have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games against teams from the Big East, the Under is 5-0-1 for Kentucky. Look for these complementary team trends to play themselves out in this one. Take the Under.

DOES ANYBODY DEAL WITH KO OR KICKOFF SPORTS ? ANY LUCK WITH THEM

DOES ANYBODY DEAL WITH KO OR KICKOFF SPORTS ? ANY LUCK WITH THEM

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Jimmy Boyd

Hawks/76ers UNDER 178

Only 166 total points were scored when these two met in Philadelphia earlier this season, and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair this evening.

The fact these two played last night is critical. After all, the under is 7-1 in the Hawks' last 8 games when playing without a day of rest and 13-3 in the 76ers' last 16 games when playing without a days' rest.

Atlanta has been an unders machine on the road, where it has scored less and given up less points this season. The under is 33-16 in its last 49 road games.

Philly, meanwhile, has been an unders machine at home, where it is only giving up 84.2 ppg. The under is 24-10 in the 76ers' last 34 home games. The fact Philly is coming off a loss is also significant because the under is 25-6 in its last 31 games following a defeat. We'll take the Under.

Rob Vinciletti

Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -5½

This game fits a solid system that plays against road dogs with no rest like the Utah Jazz that are getting 5 or more points that scored 100 or more as a home favorite of 5 or more, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a home favorite of 5 or more and had 25 or more assists, like the Clippers had last night. These road dogs are 1-28 straight up with a spread record of 3-19-4. Utah was caught late last night in a home loss to Sacramento and are 0-8 straight up and 1-7 to the spread as a road dog from +3.5 to +6 this season. The Clippers held on last night for a narrow home win. Look for LA to coast to a win and cover tonight.

Craig Trapp

Louisville vs. Kentucky
Play: Under 137

Opening game of the final four and the safe play is the Under. Do think UK wins but Pitino is a magician and he might keep it within the number. Plan for Pitino has to involve slowing this game down and making UK shoot from three against UL zone. Louisville is great on under going under in 3 of four in NCAA tourney. Add to the fact L3 games head to head played under as well.

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks
Prediction: New York Knicks

When the Knicks return home to host the Cavaliers off last night's 100-90 loss at Atlanta New York will take the court knowing that home teams in the NBA off a double-digit defeat are a highly profitable 29-13-1 ATS when taking on a foe that is off four consecutive double digit losses, including 19-6 ATS when the opponent arrives without rest. With the Knicks 4-1 ATS at home off one loss-exact this season, look for Cleveland to fall to 3-11 ATS without rest off a double-digit loss versus an opponent also off a double-digit loss here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Knicks.

David Chan

Anaheim Mighty Ducks @ Phoenix Coyotes
PICK: Phoenix Coyotes

The 33-33-11 Anaheim Ducks stumble into Phoenix to take on the 38-27-13 Coyotes.

Jonas Hiller is set to square off against Mike Smith between the pipes.

The Ducks are coming off a 3-1 win over San Jose on Wednesday.

Anaheim learned during the third period that it was out of the playoff picture.

Hiller made 28-saves; Bobby Ryan, Teemu Selanne and Corey Perry scored:

“I told them I was really proud of them,” coach Bruce Boudreau said. “It just shows that we have no quit, and we’re not going to quit. We’re not going to lay down for anybody. We’ll play this way right until the end.”

I don't agree with Boudreau. This team still had a mathematical shot at making the postseason before the game started, and now that they're officially out of the race, I expect an immediate letdown.

The Coyotes are coming off a convincing 2-0 win over San Jose on Thursday.

Radim Vrbata returned to score twice; Smith made 38-saves.

With the win, the Coyotes went from ninth to seventh in the Western Conference race with just four games to play.

The Ducks play against Edmonton tomorrow night; the Coyotes enjoy two days off after this contest, and then finish the season vs. Columbus on Tuesday, and then a back to back road set at St. Louis and at Minnesota on Fri/Sat.

This is a "must win" game for Phoenix, and in my humble opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value".

Consider a second look at the Coyotes in this one!

Jim Feist

New Orleans Hornets vs Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers

A long road trip for New Orleans and they have been shorthanded. They are off a loss at Portland and a cover, but the Hornets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. The Hornets are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. the NBA Pacific. The Lakers are rested, home, and off that tough national TV loss at home to Oklahoma City, playing poorly in the second half. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Hornets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the LA Lakers.

Dave Cokin

Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks
Pick: New York Knicks

The Cavaliers continue to get crushed, and I won with Milwaukee as Friday's free play. Until Cleveland shows me some life, I'll continue to fade them down the stretch. The Knicks should rebound from their loss to the Hawks with an easy win tonight.

JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday freebie comes in the NBA, take the New Orleans Hornets plus the double-digits at Los Angeles.

Say what you want about the Lakers, but I think it is clear this team is a very "fragile" team as we head into the home stretch of the regular season. Los Angeles has lost four of their last seven games straight up, and they have failed in seven of their last eight games against the spread, so you can see my hesitation in asking them to cover double-digits this Saturday afternoon.

New Orleans has become a "go-with" on the road of late, as Monty Williams team has been able to post a 10-3 road spread mark their last thirteen away from the Big Easy, and they did take the Lakers to overtime in the season's first meeting in New Orleans before bowing by six-points as the four-point underdog.

That cover by the Lakers pushed the road team in this series to a very positive 17-6 versus the line the past 23 series meetings.

With the Lakers in a funk, and just a 7-16 spread mark the past two seasons when laying nine-points or more on the Staples Center hardwood, have to back the underdog Hornets to keep things a little closer than the oddsmakers expect this Saturday afternoon.

New Orleans plus the points the call.

3♦ NEW ORLEANS

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s look at the San Antonio Spurs to cover against the Indiana Pacers.

It’s hard to argue against the Spurs. As the condensed season heats up, the Spurs are getting hot. They have won nine of their last 10 games and have gone 8-2 ATS in that stretch.

Convential wisdom would think the Spurs, who have some veterans, would wear down. But coach Greg Popovich has been smart in resting his stars and keeping them as fresh as possible.

The Pacers have been an erratic team, winning three of their last four games, but going 2-2 ATS in that stretch. In their last five games, they have averaged 103.6 points a game, but that scoring goes down on the road, where they average 93.8 points.

At home, the Spurs are particularly good, going 20-4 straight up and 17-7 ATS. They average 103.3 points a game, while giving up 92.3 points.

Take the Spurs.

3♦ SPURS

SCOTT DELANEY

As for your free winner for Saturday night, I'm tackling the NBA and will take the points with the New Jersey Nets in Sacramento, Calif., against the overinflated Kings.

I know the home team has won the last five meetings, and the straight-up winner has covered the last nine meetings, but I think this has road win written all over it, and the Nets have a good chance to come away with an outright win in this game.

The Nets, who are on a 7-1 ATS streak against teams out of the Pacific Division, are in on the heels of last night's 102-100 win in Oakland, and they caught 3-1/2 points from the Warriors. On Wednesday they caught 6-1/2 points at home from the Indiana Pacers and won by 16 points. Quite a turnaround from a team that had previously lost six of seven.

Sacramento is also in after a win last night, a 104-103 victory in Salt Lake City, but in the Kings' case, I'm not sure it'll be able to hang tough after running up and down the court for 48 minutes in that Utah-altitude. And prior to the Kings' win last night, they had lost four straight - to the Jazz, Warriors, Rockets and Spurs.

So even though New Jersey has dropped 11 of its last 12 visits to Sacramento, one thing to take solace in knowing is the Nets have been better on the road than at home this season. While New Jersey is 7-19 in the Garden State on the year, it's 11-16 on the highway. It also rolls into Sac-town on an ATS run of 4-1 on the second of back-to-back nights.

The Kings, on the other hand, are 5-11 against the Eastern Conference this season, and have the second-worst record in the Western Conference. And against the spread, they're on multiple skids, including being 0-5 when laying points, 2-5 after covering a number, 2-6 on Saturdays and 1-4 overall.

I'll put my money on the Nets and bank on All-Star point guard Deron Williams to attack the paint all night, using his powerful agility to break down Sacramento's rather weak defense that allows a league-high 103.8 points per game.

Take the points tonight, as the Nets challenge for the outright win.

3♦ NEW JERSEY

MATT RIVERS

As for your free play winner on Saturday, I will take the under in the meeting between Louisville and Kentucky.

This is no ordinary meeting between these Commonwealth rivals, and I fully expect nerves to come into play early in this game. Louisville knows that getting into a track-meet with Kentucky could likely turn into a blowout in favor of the Lexington crew, so expect the Cardinals to try and bang-and-grind in this game in an attempt to keep the total points in this game on the lower side.

Louisville has played under the total in ten of their last twelve games dating back to the regular season, including five of their last six. This is a team that feeds off of their defense-first philosophy, so expect them to try and establish that tone early.

Kentucky has not been slowed yet this dance, as all four of their tournament games have ended in the over column. The Wildcats like to push the tempo and impose their will, but with this game being contested in a dome and on a raised floor, I look for the perimeter shots to meet with some resistance on both ends of the court.

This year's meeting between the teams did hold under the total, and eleven of the past thirteen series meetings have also played under the total.

Look for semifinal number one to hold low as well.

4♦ UNDER