Bryan Power
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia -6
The Sixers ought to be ashamed of themselves for last night's showing in the Nation's Capital as they fell to the Wizards by 21 points. That can't happen if you're looking to win an Atlantic Division title. There's no time to "cry over spilled milk," however as tonight sees Philly back in immediate action hosting an Atlanta Hawks team that I cashed w/ as a BIG 10* against the Knicks last night. The Hawks were previously struggling having lost two straight, including their own 21 point loss, in their case to Chicago. The 76ers have typically performed very strong here at home, particularly on the defensive end where they're allowing an average of just 84.2 points per game. Philly has already beaten Atlanta twice this season, both times by double digits, while holding the Hawks to 81.5 PPG. The Sixers are 16-7 ATS when laying points at home this season. Look for them to bounce back strong from last night's embarrassment.
Jack Jones
San Antonio Spurs -8
The San Antonio Spurs are on a tear right now, and they come in well-rested and ready to go against the Indiana Pacers Saturday. San Antonio has won six straight and nine of their last ten, covering the spread in eight of the ten. The Spurs have not had two days' rest to prepare for the Pacers.
San Antonio has been one of the best home teams in the league all season. The Spurs are 20-4 at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.0 points/game on average. They'll be up against a tired Indiana team that will be playing their 7th game in 10 days.
Indiana is 9-25 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons. San Antonio is 8-1 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. San Antonio is 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. Bet the Spurs Saturday.
Steve Janus
Philadelphia 76ers -6
The 76ers lost 76-97 at Washington last night, while the Hawks knocked off the Celtics at home 100-90. It would be easy to jump on the Hawks and take the 6-points, but I believe this game has blowout written all over it.
Philadelphia is a much better team at home, where they are 18-10 on the season. Most of those 18 wins have come by double-figures. After that embarrassing loss to the Wizards, I expect the 76ers to come out extremely motivated against Atlanta.
The Hawks have really been hit hard by the shortened schedule of late. They played a back-to-back-to-back set got a day off, played a back-to-back set, got another day off, and are now playing the second game of another back-to-back. This will be Atlanta's seventh game in the last nine days!
The second game of a back-to-back in this situation is extremely hard. Atlanta looked good last night against the Knicks, but those tired legs are bad news against a deep Philadelphia team. I look for the 76ers to completely blow this game wide-open in the 2nd half.
Jeff Alexander
San Antonio Spurs -8
The Spurs have been nearly unbeatable at home this season, going 20-4 SU and 17-7 ATS with an 11.0-point average margin of victory. I expect their home success to continue here against a team they have defeated 8 straight times by an average of 9.9 points. Indiana is just 9-25 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons, losing these contests by an average of 13.8 points. We'll bet the Spurs.
Dave Price
New Jersey Nets +6
The Nets have put together back-to-back wins for the second time this month, which is something they have only been able to do one other time this season. In other words, they are playing their best ball of the year. I'll grab the points with them here as they go up against a Kings squad that is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Louisville +8½ over Kentucky
The Wildcats look near unbeatable. Some even ridiculously suggested that they could compete with the Washington Wizards of the NBA until Jeff Van Gundy shot that notion down on TV. With their dominant showing throughout the season and this event, you’re going to have to pay a premium to wager on them here and that rarely can be recommended. The Kentucky Wildcats can be beaten. It's happened twice, by Indiana and Vanderbilt. The Commodores took the Wildcats down in the SEC tournament when UK did not look as sharp as it did during the SEC season. Kentucky in transition equals death and Rick Pitino will have his guys slow this game down to a crawl when they get an offensive possession. Kentucky may have played their best games against Baylor and Indiana and yet, those laying the points had to sweat it out to the bitter end. Louisville is here for a reason. They’ve answered the bell every step of the way in the Big East tournament and this main event. Louisville has been an underdog in this range just twice this year. They lost by 10 to Syracuse, as an 8.5 pt. dog, in the final regular season game of the year. In only other, they played the Wildcats closely before losing by 7 as a 10-pt. underdog. In that game against the Wildcats, the Cardinals held the 'Cats to under 30% shooting. While they are immensely talented, the Wildcats are not a great shooting team. They can be erratic and cold. What they are, is the best transition team in the country and if Louisville can keep Kentucky in front of them, they have a chance to pull the upset. We’re not asking them to do that. We’re asking them to stay within this ample range. Play: Louisville +8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +128 over PHILADELPHIA
The Senators are not in the clear just yet, as they sit in 7th place in the East, just two points ahead of both Buffalo and Washington. After an offensive funk that saw them score just six goals in five games, the Sens snapped out of it in a big way by scoring 14 goals over their past two games against Pittsburgh and Winnipeg. They’ve held off a furious surge by the Sabres up to this point and with a game in hand on both Buffalo and Washington, a win here truly solidifies their position as the pair chasing them will be down to just three games left after tonight. Philly is solid. However, they have the Penguins on deck tomorrow afternoon in the featured NBC game at 12:30 PM EST. The Flyers are coming off three games in succession against Montreal, Tampa and Toronto and that easy set creates complacency. The going gets much tougher here against a Senators team that can taste the playoffs and one that is playing well again. Play: Ottawa +128 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles -½ +110 over MINNESOTA
We get a pretty sweet spot on the Kings tonight due to them playing their third game in four nights and fourth straight on the road. Fatigue is not an issue with this team as their desire and adrenalin is holding strong. L.A. soared up the standings with last night’s win in Edmonton. They went from eighth seed in the West to the third seed while also taking over first place in the Pacific. A loss to the Wild is not an option. Minnesota’s best offensive weapon these days is Kyle Brodziak. He leads the Wild in goals with 21. Nobody on the team has more than 48 points. With almost no offensive threats, the Wild will now have to face a Kings’ team that held Edmonton and Calgary to a combined 33 shots on net over the past two games. Los Angeles outscored that pair 7-1. The Kings have to win. They’re playing too well to allow this anemic host to get in the way of its quest to make the playoffs and the opportunity to play for Lord Stanley's Cup. Play: Los Angeles -½ +110 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA -6 over Atlanta
Great spot for the 76ers after getting humiliated by 21 points against the Wizards in their last game. Philly has just three wins in its last nine games but they’ve also had an extremely difficult set prior to losing to Washington. Going into the Wizards game, the 76ers' five defeats were against Indiana, Chicago, Miami, the then red-hot Knicks and San Antonio. What the public sees is five losses, what we see is five losses to five of the best and the 76ers competed and could’ve won three of those games. Now they catch the Hawks after Atlanta's 10-pt. less than impressive win over the Knicks last night. NY won that game not because it played well but because the Knicks were exhausted, undermanned and played poorly. The Hawks scare no one with their sloppy, erratic play that may work on bad teams but does not produce same results against talented and focused clubs. The Hawks’ stock is high right now. They’ve won seven of 10 games but those wins came against Washington (twice), Cleveland (twice), New Jersey, Utah in four OT periods and finally New York last night. They needed some last second heroics to beat both the Cavs and Wizards once each. The 76ers are hungry again. They’ve defeated Atlanta twice this year by 11 and 14 points respectively. This could be the worse beat down yet of this overvalued and grossly overrated intruder. Play: Philadelphia -6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
WUNDERDOG
Ottawa at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -145
The Ottawa Senators have had a good season as the NHL regular season winds down, but their recent play has not been up to standard. The Senators are just 5-7 over their last 12 games. The Flyers have been relatively consistent all season, and over their last 15 games they are 11-4, which includes 7-2 on home ice. The Senators have struggled vs. a team that scored 5+ in their last game, and they are a woeful 6-20 in their last 26, and have showed some rust off of three day's rest at 2-6 in their last eight. The Senators have just one win to show for their last five trips here. Play Philly.
Hollywood Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks
Prediction: New York Knicks
The Knicks (26-26) saw their three-game losing streak snapped last night in their 100-90 loss in Atlanta as a 3-point underdog -- but they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. New York has also covered the spread in 4 straight games played without a day of rest. The Knicks enjoy a strong home court advantage as they have now covered the spread in 15 of their last 18 games in Madison Square Garden. And in their last 5 games as a favorite in the 5-10.5 point range, New York has covered the spread in 4 of these games. Cleveland (17-32) looks to rebound from their embarrassing 121-84 loss to Milwaukee last night. While it may be tempting to think that the Cavaliers will rally with an improved performance after being beaten by 37 points, that sentiment does not coincide with personality of this team. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games following a double-digit loss. Playing back-to-back games will certainly not help either since the Cavs have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 games played without a day of rest. The Cavaliers have also failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 5-10.5 point range. Take the Knicks minus the points in this one.
Hollywood Sports
Devils at Hurricanes
Prediction: Over
New Jersey (44-28-2-4) has won two in a row after their 6-4 win versus Tampa Bay on Thursday. The Devils have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total played with a day in-between games. New Jersey has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Devils have played 5 of their last 6 Over the Total against teams from an Eastern Conference. Carolina (31-31-10-6) looks to rebound from their 4-3 loss in overtime against Winnipeg last night -- and the Over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games played without rest. The Hurricanes have also seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games played against a team with a winning record. Follow these complementary team trends in this one by taking the Over.
Teddy Covers
Memphis @ Milwaukee
PICK: Milwaukee -3
The Bucks and Grizzlies are in very different places emotionally and confidence-wise on the eve of the final month of the regular season. Memphis is struggling; just 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS in their last nine ballgames. They are in the midst of a brutal scheduling stretch, playing 12 games in 17 days, including five in six, starting with their loss at Houston last night. Team leader Tony Allen, following last night’s loss: “We couldn’t get a key stop or a key rebound or a key loose ball or whatever down the stretch. They showed they wanted it more than we did.” Meanwhile, the Bucks are playing great basketball; 9-3 SU and ATS in their last dozen ballgames, after last night’s 37 point blowout in Cleveland. They are a very difficult team to defend right now – six different players (Drew Gooden, Brandon Jennings, Luc Mbah a Moute, Ersan Ilyasova, Mike Dunleavy and Monta Ellis) have led the team in scoring in their last seven games. Head coach Scott Skiles talking about the Bucks offensive chemistry: “Our movement was good again. We had 19 assists and three turnovers at halftime.” There’s no reason to think the struggling Grizzlies will snap that momentum tonight. Take Milwaukee.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Kentucky/ Louisville Over 137: Google News Play. Ok Louisville plays great defense and they have not played a lot of high scoring games this year because of that defense, but I feel this one will be a bit high scoring. Louisville played Florida in their last game, which is another up an down team and 140 points were scored in that game. As I said they have a great defense and they have allowed just 54 ppg in their last 6 games, but prior to the last 6 games they did allow 71 points to a fast paced Marquette team and they allowed 68 points in their last game vs Florida, so they can be scored upon, with the right offensive team and that's just what Kentucky has. The Cats have been scoring at will in the tourney, as they have averaged 88 ppg on 53% shooting, while for the year they have averaged 77.9 ppg on 48% shooting. Let us also note that the Cats have scored 65 points from the FT line in their last 2 games on 81 attempts, so you can expect plenty of those cheap points here as well. No for the Cardinals they are not a great scoring or shooting team, but the Cats have not really played great defense in the tourney as they have allowed 74.3 ppg in the 4 games, while dating back to the SEC tourney they have allowed 70 points or more in 5 of heir last 6 games. I fee this will be an up and down game as the Cats are the better team and will get the pace where they want it. If Louisville wants to win or keep it close they will have to play at that pace. I feel this will be a bit easy win for Kentucky in a game that should put at least 140 points on the board.
3 UNIT PLAY
Kentucky -8.5 over Louisville: Google News Play. When these teams met on New Year’s Eve, the Wildcats shot 29.8% FG (3-of-16 threes) and still won by seven points, 69-62. They dominated the paint, getting to the foul line 43 times and outrebounding Louisville 57-31. Louisville is a better team then they were then, but so are the Cats. Kentucky has been the most dominant team this year and I feel it will continue in this one. I have at times underestimated the Louisville defense, but I feel they just don't match up well vs the Cats offense here. Kentucky puts up 77.9 ppg on 48% shooting and I feel the Cardinals will have problems stopping them here. Now on the other side, the Cards just don't have enough offense vs a very tough defensive team that is number 1 in the nation in defensive FG% (37.5%) to put enough points on the board to keep this one close. Kentucky has outscored their opponents by 17.3 ppg and this is their year. The Cats move on with a solid DD win.
2 UNIT PLAY
Ohio State/ Kansas Under 136: The Buckeyes have been scoring a ton in the tourney, but today they will be taking on a tough defensive minded Jayhawk team that has allowed just 61.6 ppg on 38% shooting for the year and just 58.5 ppg on 35.7% shooting in the tourney. OSU did allow 70 points to Syracuse in their last game, but this is a team that has played excellent defense all year as they have allowed just 59.7 ppg on 40.6 % shooting for the year and they will be taking on a Kansas team that has struggled to score some in the tourney as they have put up 65 points or less in 3 of the 4 games. Both teams will play defense and this should be a close game thoughtout and while we ma get those FT's at the end of the game, we also should have the teams really walikng up the ball late as well so they can look for their best shot. This one should finish right around 130.
DR BOB
Kentucky (-8½) vs Louisville
Louisville is the best defensive team in the nation (based on compensated points per possession allowed) and the Cardinals held Kentucky to 29.8% shooting in a close 7 point loss at Kentucky earlier this season. Louisville had trouble offensively in that game too (32.2%) and that will probably be the case in this game too, but if the Cardinals can lose by only 7 points in Lexington then they can certainly compete in this game on a neutral floor. Louisville enters the Final Four with an 8 game winning streak (7 of those wins were against NCAA tournament teams) and the Cardinals have played relatively better against better teams this season. My ratings only favor Kentucky by 6 ½ points in this game, so the line is certainly inflated. The problem is a 79-148-5 ATS situation that applies to Louisville in this game and Final Four underdogs of more than 4 points coming off two or more upset wins are 0-6 ATS. That’s enough to get me to pass on Louisville. My math model projects 133 total points, so I suppose I’ll lean with the under.
Ohio State (-2½) vs. Kansas
Ohio State isn’t really equipped to take advantage of Kansas’ defensive weakness, which is defending the 3-point arc. Kansas allowed a mediocre 33.7% from beyond the arc and the Jayhawks are #1 in the nation in 2-point percentage defense at 40.0%. Ohio State only makes 33.2% of their 3-pointers and the Buckeyes don’t take a lot of threes so their offense doesn’t particularly match up well. However, Ohio State’s overall defense is #2 in the nation in compensated defensive efficiency and Kansas is not as good offensively as the Buckeyes are, so the Jayhawks will probably struggle to score too. My ratings favor Ohio State by 3 points with a total of 135 points, so there really isn’t any value to be found in this game.
Free NBA Release for 3/31: Philadelphia 76ers -6 over the Atlanta Hawks (-106, 5Dimes). The Sixers are showing excellent value tonight at home after that embarrasing beatdown from the Wizards. Philadelphia had most likely been worn down in that game in Washington after a brutal stretch against some of the NBAs elite clubs. We suspect they will take out their frustrations tonight against an overvalued Atlanta Hawks club. Philly has beaten the Hawks in four straight games by an average of 15 points/game. The Sixers are also a very profitable 6-1 at the window in the last seven games in this series. Atlanta enters tonights contest after winning 7 of their last 10 games, including a 100-90 victory last night in New York. But they also most likely used up all of the gas in their starters as they combined for over 173 minutes of running around MSG. Note that the Hawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of playing time in the previous day. Statistically, the Sixers outshoot, outdefend, outrebound, and outbench the Hawks. Philadelphia is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home chalk overall. Atlanta is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win, and just 2-5 at the window in their last 7 games as a road dog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll lay the small number for the homecourt advantage, and the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.