James Patrick Sports
Michigan State vs.Michigan
The Michigan Wolverines are (6-2) ATS in their last (8) home games and have cashed winning ATS tickets at a ( 5-2) ATS in their last (7) games as a home favorite. The Spartans are (2-5) ATS in their last (7) road games.and will have their hands full at Chrysler Arena on Saturday. Big Game James Patrick's Big Ten complimentary selection in Saturday College Basketball action is Michigan Wolverines.
Jack Jones
Utah Jazz -7.5
The Utah Jazz have not been playing well, but their losing streak comes to an end tonight as they host the lowly Sacramento Kings. Sacramento is 15-44 this season, including 7-21 on the road where they are getting outscored by 8.8 PPG. This is the easiest game the Jazz have faced in quite some time, and considering they are still alive for the playoffs they will be putting their best foot forward Saturday.
Utah is 7-2 in their last 9 meetings with Sacramento. The Kings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Sacramento is 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest. The Kings are 11-22 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Utah is 28-13 ATS after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 76-47 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread since 1996. Take Utah Saturday.
Tony George
Colorado -5
Nebraska 1-6 on the road and last Saturday lost to lowly Iowa State on the road. Off a big win on Wednesday for NU against Mizzou, this is a tough game and tough matchup for Nebraska whose defense will have issues on the road against the high scoring Buffs. Buffs still trying to get a higher seed in Big 12 tourney and a must win for post season consideration for both teams, Colorado a different animal at home and beat Texas in here last week. NU falls here by 10.
Craig Trapp
East Carolina vs. UAB
Play: East Carolina +11
Way too many points as UAB is a solid team but won't cover this big number. UAB struggled to beat ECU at ECU earlier this year pulling out late 7 pt win. ECU is coming off big win against MEM which we have in our power rankings above this UAB team. ECU is 4-1 ATS L5 road games at UAB. Sherrod is coming off 28 in MEM win for ECU and tonight he backs it up with another 20 plus performance keeping this one much closer than 11.
Scott Rickenbach
Louisville @ West Virginia
PICK: Louisville +3.5
Louisville is off of a stellar defensive effort in their most recent game as they held Providence to just 60 points in a blowout win by a 27 point margin on Wednesday. Note that the Cardinals have now won four straight both straight-up and against the spread. Additionally, note that Louisville is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they held their opponent to 60 points or less. Also, over the last three seasons, the Cards are 31-9 SU when they are off of a game where they held their opponent to 60 points or less. In this game, at West Virginia, the Cardinals are the underdog and that is offering us even more line value in this situation. The Mountaineers have won and covered two straight games but, prior to this “mini-streak” West Virginia had gone just 2-4 straight-up and 1-5 ATS. Prior to shooting nearly 47% from the field in their win over Connecticut Wednesday, the Mountaineers had been held under 41% from the field in 8 of their last 12 games. West Virginia is likely to drop 8-12 ATS this season when facing a team with a winning record. Once again, look for the Mountaineers fail to step up in a big game. Consider a small play on Louisville plus the points in early Saturday NCAAB action!
Black Widow
1* on Tulsa -2.5
Tulsa gets the call Saturday as a small home favorite over Southern Miss showing excellent value Saturday. Southern Miss is only 8-6 on the road this year while Tulsa is 11-3 at home. The Golden Hurricane are 3-0 in their last 3 home meetings with the Eagles. Southern Miss is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Tulsa is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Tulsa and lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis +105 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
The Blue Notes have dropped six of their last seven games, they’ve virtually dropped out of the playoff race and ownership issues are unsettling. Yet, on the puck line they’re taking back a half puck and laying –157. That’s reason enough to play them here and so is the fact that the Islanders host the Devils tomorrow in another matinee affair. The Blues are much better than their record indicates. This is not a team that should be losing six of seven. Prior to being shutout in back-to-back games vs Calgary, St. Louis had gone 111 straight without being shutout. Prior to losing six of seven they had beaten Vancouver, Buffalo and Anaheim in three straight and scored 15 times. They definitely showed some life in their last game in Washington and that’s the type of effort we expect today. The Islanders are a team to watch next year. They’re an exciting young squad on the verge of a major improvement in the standings. However, as the chalk they really don’t offer up much value and the puck line says the Blue Notes will be ready. Play: St. Louis +105 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +183 over PHILADELPHIA
The Sabres called up goaltender Jhonas Enroth before last night’s game and Lindy Ruff insists that he’ll play one of the two games this weekend with today’s game being more likely. That’s interesting when you consider that the Sabres play the Wild tomorrow and one would figure that Ruff would want Miller in against a tougher Philly team. All reports, although unconfirmed, are that Enroth will get the call today. Ruff has been around forever. He’s no fool and there’s a great chance he senses how fragile the Flyers are right now. He knows this league and he knows the Flyers. There’s not a situation he hasn’t seen and with such a crucial game he absolutely knows he’ll be under heavy criticism should the Sabres lose here because of Enroth. Again, the man hasn’t lost his marbles and the lone fact that Lindy Ruff is leaning Enroth tells us he loves his chances to beat Philly. The Flyers are fragile. Adversity has struck for the first time this year after back-to-back losses to Ottawa and Toronto. They’ve lost three of four with only win during that span coming in OT against the Islanders. The outrageous price alone is reason enough to play the pooch here but throw in Philly’s recent struggles and you have a must play situation. Play: Buffalo +183 (Risking 2 units).
PHOENIX +108 over Detroit
The Red Wings conclude a five game trip here and while they’re 2-2 thus far, they could just as easily be 0-4. They started the trip with a 3-2 OT win over the Sabres in a game they trailed 2-0. Then it was on to L.A. where they beat the Kings 7-4 and that is a flattering score indeed. Jonathon Bernier started and was yanked after allowing two goals on three shots in the first seven minutes. Jonathan Quick came in and allowed a goal and it was 3-1 after the first and 4-1 after the second. The Red Wings popped in two early third period goals and it was 6-1 before a late rally that made it somewhat respectable but the point is that L.A.’s goaltending was atrocious, as at least four goals were soft. Detroit then lost its next two to Anaheim and San Jose and while both games were close and the Red Wings could have won them both and be 4-0 on this trip, they didn’t and the last game of a road trip is often the toughest. Also, the puck line has the Red Wings -½ +145 and that’s enticing when you consider that the Coyotes have dropped five in a row. These two have met three times this year with Detroit winning twice, however, both wins were in OT and so Detroit has not beaten Phoenix in regulation yet under more favorable conditions than this one and the puck line strongly suggests that won’t happen here either. Play Phoenix +108 (Risking 2 units).
Vancouver +108 over LOS ANGELES
4:00 PM EST. With some reluctance we’re playing the Canucks because like two other plays today the puck line says so. The Kings are -½ +146 while Vancouver is taking back a half puck and laying 60 cents. That’s a bet that not many will make because it’s heavy juice and Vancouver is really struggling. They’ve alternated wins and losses in 12 straight. They were shutout in its last against Nashville and have now scored three goals in its last three games. Meanwhile, the Kings have caught fire and they were declared the winners at the trade deadline after picking up Dustin Penner. The Kings have won four of five and 12 of 17 and they’re at home where they sport a 20-10 record. So yeah, all signs point to the Kings but like we always say, we’re not in the business of trying to predict the outcome of games. You have to look for value, play it and let the chips fall where they may. This line, like the other two, was designed to attract money on the wrong side and that enticing side here is the Kings. The line says no and thus, we’re not going to pick and choose. We’re either going to play all three or lay off them all and we choose the former. Play: Vancouver +108 (Risking 2 units).
Great Lakes Sports
Western Michigan at Central Michigan
Play: Western Michigan Broncos
The Western Michigan Broncos area stellar 4-1 ATS when playing in their last five road games, and the Western Michigan Broncos are a very respectable 15-6-3 when playing in their last twenty four games road games vs a team with a losing home record. The Western Michigan Broncos are a solid 4-2 ATS vs Central Michigan the last three years while the favorite is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in this series. We look for the Western Michigan Broncos to grab the road ATS Win & Cover today. TAKE: (537) Western Michigan Broncos
Tom Freese
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -9
Charlotte is 26-35 straight up this year are 3-8 ATS when playing with no rest. The Bobcats are 5-16-1 ATS their last 22 games vs. NBA Northwest teams. The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS their last 5 Saturday games. The Bobcats are 2-5 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. Portland is 34-27 straight this year. The Trailblazers are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games off a straight up win. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS off an ATS win. Portland is 3-1-1 ATS their last 5 games vs. Eastern Conference teams. The favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS their last 7 meetings.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Texas -3.5
Following back-to-back losses to Colorado and Kansas State, expect the Longhorns to get right back in the win column Saturday. With a 9-point win over Baylor last month, Texas improved to 25-6 in its last 31 games in this series. It is 11-2 at Baylor during this span. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Lay the points.
Scott Spreitzer
Creighton @ Missouri State
PICK: Creighton
This marks the third straight time I have released the Jays in some fashion on these pages, going 2-0 thus far. If you weren't with me yesterday, I'll repeat the fact that the Jays have a lot of young players and they may be the frontrunner to win the MVC next season. They own a strong inside-out game with three go-to-players on the blocks and Doug McDermott and Antoine Young making teams pay from the perimeter. McDermott can also be a beast on the glass as Northern Iowa found out yesterday. The coach's son had 7 rebounds with more than 5 minutes to go in the first half. Preseason MVC Player of the Year Kenny Lawson has accepted his role coming off the bench and although Gregory Echenique is still a little rough around the edges, he does get his share of the looks in the paint. Creighton is in 2-time revenge having lost the first meeting in Omaha after blowing an 11-point second half lead. The Jays lost at Missouri State in the second meeting by a single point, 67-66. Once again, Creighton jumped out to a halftime lead, but blew another decent-sized lead over the final 20 minutes. But the Jays are playing better now. They're getting more comfortable with Echenique as a starter and the team is rebounding much better. Creighton is on a 12-3-1 ATS run in this series. Meanwhile, Missouri State is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games and they always seem to find a way to NOT win the tourney title. The Bears escaped SIU yesterday, but I expect the Jays to end their tourney hopes in this one. I'm playing Creighton on Saturday.
Telly
1 of 6 Free Plays Today
Western Michigan -2
Tom Stryker
Troy @ North Texas
Pick: North Texas -5.5
Of the eight Sun Belt Conference teams playing in the First Round, North Texas may be one that has enough leadership and experience to potentially win four games in four days and punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
The Mean Green will be elated to get another shot at Troy too. Back on January 15th, the Trojans (+5) upset UNT on their homecourt 89-81. Troy tickled the twine in that upset win connecting on 56.4 percent of its shots from the field. Rest assured, North Texas will defend the Trojans much better this time around.
Technically speaking, this is a monster spot for North Texas. One of my best conference tournament systems applies to the Mean Green and this situation holds a phenomenal 28-4 ATS record. Since this technical gem will be popping a few times over the next week, I'll have to protect the system and not break it down. However, I will tell you that it does back a team playing with same season single-revenge at an early stage of a conference tournament.
In the opening round or donkey round of the Sun Belt Tournament, teams playing with revenge of any kind have produced a nearly perfect 7-1 ATS record provided they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more straight up losses. The Trojans dropped their last three to Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic and Florida International which means UNT applies to this situation.
The Mean Green won this tournament a year ago. Rest assured, head coach Johnny Jones will find a way to move on to the next round. Take North Texas.
SPORTS WAGERS
Marquette –108 over SETON HALL
Seton Hall is coming off a big win over the Johnny’s but let’s call a spade a spade. The Pirates won not because they played well but because St. John’s was simply awful. That 14-point win is also misleading, as that game was completely up for grabs very late in the second half. Fact is, the Pirates are the inferior team that cannot be trusted with their shooting, both from the field and from the foul line. The Golden Eagles are 9-8 in the conference and just 18-12 overall, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for an invitation to the dance. They are on the bubble with that record and that’s because they do not have a single bad loss all year. A close look reveals that Marquette’s 12 losses have come against Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vandy, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Villanova, Georgetown, St. John’s and finally Cincinnati. No team in the land has a résumé like that. This would be considered a bad loss but how can one argue with the fact that the Eagles have beaten every non-tournament team they’ve faced and they’ve also beaten some very quality teams. The Pirates stand in the way of an invite and if all things are equal than the Golden Eagles should come in here and whack this very beatable host. Play: #573 Marquette –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Duquesne +3½/+155 over RICHMOND
This game is the first one on the board, it tips off at noon and it’s likely to attract a lot of attention. What’s interesting is that the Spiders have beaten the Dukes 13 in a row and that’s absolutely incredible. That’s going to factor in many folks selection on this game, yet the line is just 3½. Also consider that the Dukes have lost five of seven while Richmond is on a three-game winning streak and they’re 11-3 at home and 12-3 in the conference. Having said that, the Spiders really aren’t playing for much. They’ve clinched a bye in the conference tournament and they’re going to finish right where they are right now and that’s in third place in the A-10. Duquesne on the other hand needs a win here to clinch a bye and the Spiders can be beat. When Richmond last faced the two teams above them in the A-10, Temple and Xavier, they lost by 23 and 20 points respectively. They beat up on bad teams and have been doing so all year. The Dukes beat Temple by 12 and lost to Xavier by eight. They also lost to Penn St by four and to West Virginia by three. While history and current form suggests the Spiders will win going away, the line strongly suggests otherwise and it’s prudent to always pay attention to what the line suggests. Play: #513 Duquesne +3½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play Duquesne +155 (Risking 1 unit).
Michael Alexander
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma State
OKLAHOMA ST is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season
OKLAHOMA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons