Matt Fargo
Texas vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -3
With the final regular season Saturday upon us, we have a lot of opportunities to look for last home game possibilities and this is one of those solid spots. Baylor is having a sensational season and it is far from over but this will be the final home game for two starters, guard Tweety Carter and center Josh Lomers. The Bears are still playing for seeding in the upcoming Big XII Tournament and they are still in good position to lock down one of the top four seeds in the conference which come with a first round bye. This final home game against Texas figures to draw the largest crowd of the season to the Ferrell Center as the Bears go for a rare season sweep against the Longhorns after they won in Austin by three points in overtime back at the end of January. Baylor is 14-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming against Kansas St. by just a bucket. The matchup here favors Baylor as it showed in that first meeting with Texas. The Longhorns normally has an edge down low as their +9.6 rpg margin shows but Baylor is right there with a +8.6 rpg margin and they split the rebounding in that first meeting 37-37. The Bears had a horrible game in taking care of the ball, which was an aberration, as it had an 8/20 assist/turnover ratio yet still was able to win the game. The major difference was Texas shot 61.3 percent from the free throw line and that has been a big issue all season. Texas picked up a much needed win last Monday against Oklahoma St. to move to 8-5 in the conference and into a tie for fourth place with Baylor and Texas A&M. The Longhorns then went on the road at Texas A&M and put up another dud before returning home and winning this past Monday night against a disappointing Oklahoma team. That win over the Cowboys made it two straight wins for the first time in five weeks and that is hard to believe from a team that was 17-0 and ranked number one at one point. The Longhorns are 6-7 in their last 13 games and there is no improvement in the areas that need improvements. The biggest thing is free throw shooting as mentioned. The Longhorns are hitting 62.7 percent on the season including a horrendous 59.4 percent on the road. Look for Baylor to close out its home campaign with a convincing win. 3* Baylor Bears
Marc Lawrence
Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns
It’s doubtful Jim O’Brien and his young Pacers wanted to head west anytime soon but the schedule maker doesn’t play favorites and as a result they now find themselves in the desert for the finale of this four-game west coast swing. After falling to the Lakers and Trailblazers earlier in the week, the Pacers were 2-18 SU and 6-14 ATS as dogs versus the Western Conference this season when they headed into Denver last night. It won’t get any easier as the Suns will be especially anxious to make amends for a 122-114 setback they suffered in the Conseco Fieldhouse on January 13th. With Phoenix off an 8-point upset loss, and 5-1 SU and ATS in this series with same-season revenge, look for the Suns to get the job done.
Jim Feist
Indiana Pacers vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Indiana Pacers +12½
Indiana has plenty of offense, with young legs who like to run the court. Phoenix likes to run, as well, though there is age in the backcourt with Steve Nash and a suspect defense. That was on display the last game as the Suns fell apart several times after building up big leads in a home loss to Utah. Now this defense, which allows the third-most points in the NBA, is a huge favorite. The young Pacers have already beaten this team, 122-114, as a dog and have more than enough to hang within this number. Play the Pacers.
Craig Trapp
North Carolina vs. Duke
Play: UNC +14.5
Rivalry games usually spells close games in this series. Even better UNC is coming off two really good games. Senior night at Duke plus a must win to win the league, pressure could get to a younger Duke team. UNC is long and athletic and will give Duke trouble inside. A much closer game as Duke wins just barely.
Larry Ness
Virginia Commonwealth at George Mason
Play: Virginia Commonwealth
The top four seeds got byes into the CAA quarterfinals but that didn't include last year's regular season and tourney champ Virginia Commonwealth which this year was seeded just fifth. VCU has won the last three regular season titles with two NCAA appearances in 2007 and 2009 (nine all-time). Head coach Anthony Grant left for Alabama after last season and Shaka Smart is the Rams' first-year head coach (like Grant, he's a former Billy Donovan assistant). The Rams lost Maynor (22.4-6.2 APG) off LY's team but four starters returned. While they've underachieved this year, they could be very dangerous in this tourney. That's how I began my write-up on VCU yesterday against Delaware. The Rams opened up a 37-21 halftime lead over the Blue Hens and cruised to a 66-49 win. All this despite making only 40.9 percent from the floor and attempting just five free throws (made three). VCU's 6-11 Sanders (14.8-8.9 in the regular season) scored 15 points and grabbed 13 rebounds while guards Rodriguez (12.0-6.0 APG) and Burgess (10.6-5.1) combined for 22 points. Sanders is joined up front by 6-9 Wake Forest transfer Skeen (7.2-4.5) who has been eligible since mid-December plus Rodriguez and Burgess are joined in the backcourt by Nixon (8.3) and Rozzell (8.1). George Mason made that memorable Final 4 run back in 2006 but the Patriots have made just one NCAA appearance since, losing a first round game to Notre Dame in 2008. Three starters were lost off last year's 22-win NIT team, and this year's team is fairly young without much size. Junior guard Cam Long (12.5-4.0-3.2) is the best player, joined by guard Cornelius (8.8) plus frontcourt players Pearson (11.4-6.5), who is just 6-6, the 6-9 Morrison (7.9-5.8) and 6-5 freshman Hancock (7.6-3.4). These teams met just once this year, Feb 9 in Fairfax. George Mason erased a 15-point second half deficit in that contest and won 82-77 in overtime. Expect a reverse of that result on Saturday in Richmond (not VCU's homecourt but its home city).
VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Rockets at Minnesota T'Wolves
Play: Houston
Any time you can take advantage of a short number like this one and go against the lowly Timberwolves, by all means, do it. Houston has won nine straight over Minnesota, going 6-1-2 ATS over that span. They are also 70-36 ATS on the road off a SU loss as a favorite. Minnesota has lost four straight and 10 of its last 11.
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(10) West Virginia (23-6, 12-16 ATS) at (9) Villanova (24-5, 18-10 ATS)
The Wildcats wrap up regular-season play with a key Big East battle against West Virginia at the Wachovia Center.
West Virginia has also dropped off the pace lately, with three losses in its last seven games, though it has won its last two contests, both at home. On Monday, the Mountaineers rolled past Georgia Tech 81-68 as a seven-point favorite, ending a two-game ATS hiccup. For the year, Bob Huggins’ squad has outscored foes by an average of 10 ppg (74.9-64.8), though on the road, that has tightened up to 75.5-71.1.
Four of Villanova’s five losses this season have come in the last eight games, including three in the last five, though it pulled out a 77-73 road win over Cincinnati on Tuesday as a 3½-point chalk. The Wildcats rank second in the nation in scoring, at 83.2 ppg on 46.5 percent shooting, while allowing 72.8 ppg, and they’re even more proficient at home, averaging 85.6 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting and giving up 68.6 ppg on 39.6 percent shooting.
West Virginia is 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this rivalry, but the two teams have alternated SU and ATS wins over the last four matchups, with Villanova winning 82-75 as a 5½-point road chalk last month. The SU winner has cashed in the last 15 clashes between these two.
The Wildcats are on ATS skids of 0-5 after a SU win and 1-4 on Saturday, but they also carry positive pointspread streaks of 9-4 at home, 4-0 at home against teams with a winning road record and 11-5 after a spread-cover. The Mountaineers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a pointspread victory.
The under has hit in four of Villanova’s last five home starts and eight of West Virginia’s last 10 following a spread-cover. However, the over for ‘Nova is on rolls of 16-7 overall, 4-1 on Saturday, 14-4 coming off a SU win, 10-4 after an ATS victory and 8-3 against winning teams. Furthermore, the over for the Mountaineers is on runs of 6-2 overall (all in the Big East), 4-1 on Saturday and 8-3 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has hurdled the posted price in eight of the last 11 meetings overall and four of the last five in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA and OVER
(2) Kansas (28-2, 11-15-1 ATS) at Missouri (22-8, 14-10 ATS)
The Jayhawks cap regular-season action with a short road trip to Mizzou Arena for a border battle against the Tigers.
Kansas bounced back from last Saturday’s SU and ATS loss at Oklahoma State by easily handling No. 5 Kansas State 82-65 Wednesday night as an 8½-point home chalk to clinch the Big 12 regular-season title. The Jayhawks, who ended a five-game ATS skid with Wednesday’s win, rate in the top 10 nationally in scoring (82.4 ppg, third), field-goal percentage (48.8 percent, eighth), 3-point shooting (40.2 percent, ninth) and rebounding (38.1 per game, sixth), and they also boast the No. 3 shooting defense (37.7 percent).
Missouri has won four of its last five and six of eight as it tries to shore up its postseason credentials. On Tuesday night, the Tigers narrowly fended off Iowa State 69-67 in overtime as a five-point road chalk, their second straight pointspread setback after a four-game ATS winning streak. Mizzou also puts up points, averaging 78.9 per game (22nd), while allowing 65.1 ppg, and at home, they’ve rolled up 85.8 ppg and given up just 62.6.
Kansas has won seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry, going 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six, including cashing the last four in a row. On Jan. 25, the Jayhawks breezed to an 84-65 home win laying 12 points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
The Jayhawks are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600, but the pointspread streaks tumble downward from there, including 1-5 overall (all in the Big 12), 0-5 after a SU win, 1-6 after a spread-cover, 1-4 on the road and 2-6 against winning teams. The Tigers, meanwhile, are on ATS surges of 21-6 at home, 19-9 in the Big 12, 5-1 on Saturday and 5-1 after a non-cover.
Kansas is on “under” runs of 28-12 after a SU win and 10-3 after a spread-cover, and Missouri is on “under” rolls of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 6-2 on Saturday and 5-2 against the Big 12. Still, the over has hit in four of the Tigers’ last five at home and in four of the Jayhawks’ last five on Saturday, and the over is 7-3 in KU’s last 10 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over/under has alternated in the last six meetings, with January’s contest falling just short of the 150-point posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
(1) Syracuse (28-2, 19-7 ATS) at Louisville (19-11, 9-16 ATS)
The Orange aim to avenge the only loss in their last 16 games when they travel to Freedom Hall for the regular-season finale against Louisville.
Since suffering that 66-60 home upset to the Cardinals as a 6½-point favorite on Feb. 14, Syracuse has won four in a row SU and ATS, all in the Big East and none by less than 14 points. After manhandling Villanova by 18 points at home on Saturday, the Orange came back Tuesday and crushed St. John’s 85-66 as a hefty 13½-point home chalk. Jim Boeheim’s troops are the best shooters in the nation, hitting 51.8 percent from the floor en route to an average of 81.8 ppg (sixth), while yielding 65.7 ppg on 39.2 percent shooting.
Louisville is fighting for its postseason life after dropping two of its last three games, following a 5-1 surge, and the Cardinals have gone just 3-6 ATS over that entire nine-game stretch. On Tuesday, Rick Pitino’s club got run out of Marquette’s gym in a 69-48 shellacking as a 1½-point pup. Louisville has outscored opponents by an average of about seven ppg this year (76.6-69.7), though that margin grows to more than 11 at Freedom Hall (79.7-68.3).
Louisville has won the last five clashes in this rivalry, going 4-0-1 ATS, with the spread-covers coming in the last four meetings. The Cards are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four matchups in Louisville, the chalk is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the SU winner is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven.
The Orange’s 19-7 ATS mark is No. 1 in the nation this year, and they are on additional spread-covering sprees of 35-17 overall, 9-1 on the road, 23-8 against winning teams, 20-7 in Big East play, 19-7 after a spread-cover and 23-9 after a SU win. The lone negative: a 2-5 ATS mark in its last seven Saturday games.
On the flip side, the Cardinals are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 2-6 overall (1-4 last four, all in the Big East), 1-6 at home, 1-5 on Saturday, 3-7 after a non-cover and 4-9 against winning teams.
The ‘Cuse is on “over” stretches of 4-0 overall (all in the Big East), 10-2 on Saturday and 17-8 after a spread-cover, and Louisville is on “over” upticks of 8-3 on Saturday and 13-6 after a SU loss. That said, the under is 6-2 in the Cardinals’ last eight contests (all in the Big East), 6-2 in the Orange’s last eight road tilts and 9-4 for Syracuse following a SU win.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in three of the last four meetings, with the Jan. 14 contest in New York landing miles short of the 148-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Notre Dame (20-10, 13-10-1 ATS) at Marquette (20-9, 15-7-1 ATS)
Two teams making late-season pushes for Big Dance consideration collide in a Big East regular-season finale when the Golden Eagles welcome Notre Dame to the Bradley Center.
Marquette has won four in a row and nine of its last 10, going 7-2-1 ATS in that span. During that span, the Golden Eagles played in an unheard of three straight overtime games and won them all (2-0-1 ATS), all on the road – at Cincinnati, St. John’s and Seton Hall – before blowing out Louisville 69-48 Tuesday as a 1½-points home chalk. On the home floor this year, Marquette is outscoring foes by more than 18 ppg (77.9-59.6).
For the past five games, Notre Dame has been without leading scorer and rebounder Luke Harangody, the nation’s No. 2 scorer at 24.1 ppg. The Irish dropped the first two, but have rebounded with three consecutive victories: a home ripping of Pittsburgh and road rout of Georgetown – both ranked teams – prior to Wednesday’s 58-50 home victory over UConn as a 1½-point chalk. Still, Notre Dame is just 2-6 in true roadies this year (4-3-1 ATS).
Marquette is 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, covering the last four in a row, including a 71-64 road victory as a 2½-point pup in last year’s lone meeting. The visitor, though, is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Golden Eagles are on ATS tears of 11-3-1 overall, 5-0 on Saturday, 12-3-1 against winning teams, 8-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 4-1-1 after a SU win and 5-2 at home. The Irish have cashed in four straight (all in the Big East) and are on further ATS upswings of 4-0 against winning teams and 5-2 after a SU win, though they’ve also gone 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 starts following a pointspread win.
In this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last six meetings. In addition, Marquette is on a 35-16 “over” streak on Saturday, and the over is 5-1 in Notre Dame’s last six games against winning teams. However, the Eagles sport “under” runs of 4-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 after a SU win, and the Irish are on “under” surges of 4-1 overall (all in the Big East), 6-1 after a SU win, 17-5 after a spread-cover and 4-1 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE
Texas (23-7, 10-16 ATS) at (21) Baylor (23-6, 14-8 ATS)
The surging Bears and struggling Texas finish the regular season with a Big 12 contest at the Ferrell Center.
Baylor is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games (5-5 ATS), all within the Big 12, winning its last three in a row. Most recently, the Bears have posted a pair of road wins, dropping Oklahoma 70-63 as a 4½-point favorite last Saturday, then routing Texas Tech 86-68 as a four-point chalk Tuesday night. Baylor is averaging 76.9 ppg on a sturdy 48.4 percent shooting (13th), while giving up just 64.9 ppg with the fourth-best shooting defense (37.8 percent).
After winning its first 17 games, Texas has since gone a middling 6-7 SU and a dismal 3-10 ATS. That said, Rick Barnes’ troops have won three of their last four (1-3 ATS), including Monday’s 87-76 win over Oklahoma, falling short as a hefty 13½-point home chalk. The Longhorns average 81.8 ppg (sixth) while allowing 68.2 pgg, and they are the nation’s second-best rebounding team (39.8 per game). But on the road, they are getting narrowly outscored in allowing 74.9 ppg and scoring 74.8.
Baylor has won two in a row SU and ATS in this in-state rivalry, after Texas had reeled off a whopping 24 consecutive wins (15-9 ATS). The Bears won 76-70 getting 4½ points in the Big 12 tourney last year, then upended the ‘Horns 80-77 in overtime as a nine-point road ‘dog on Jan. 30. However, Baylor hasn’t beaten Texas in Waco since Feb. 21, 1998, a 80-75 triumph in a pick-em contest, after which the Longhorns’ 24-game series tear began. Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 visits to Waco, and the road team and the pup are on identical 4-1 ATS runs in this rivalry.
The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 2-5 against winning teams and 5-15-1 at home against teams with a winning road record. The Longhorns are a bundle of pointspread slides, including 3-14 overall, 1-9 after a SU win, 3-10 after a non-cover, 1-7 on Saturday, 3-12 against winning teams, 6-22-1 in the Big 12 and 7-18-1 in roadies.
Baylor is on “over” sprees of 12-5 overall, 5-0 after a spread-cover, 10-2 after a SU win, 10-2 versus teams with a win percentage above .600, 11-4 in the Big 12 and 7-3 on Saturday. The over is also 6-1 in Texas’ last seven against winning teams and 8-3 in the Longhorns’ last 11 Saturday starts. Finally, the total has gone high in five of the last six clashes in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Virginia Tech (22-7, 11-11-1 ATS) at Georgia Tech (19-10, 13-9-1 ATS)
The Hokies aim to firm up their NCAA credentials when they travel to Atlanta for an ACC contest against Georgia Tech at Alexander Memorial Coliseum.
Virginia Tech followed an 8-1 SU tear by losing three in a row over the last week of February, but it bounced back Wednesday night with a 71-59 home victory over North Carolina State laying 7½ points to halt an 0-4-1 ATS slide. Over the last five games, the Hokies have given up an average of 78.6 ppg while scoring 74.6, shooting just 39.8 percent, including a dismal 20 percent from 3-point range.
Georgia Tech has likely fallen off the NCAA bubble by losing four of its last six games (2-3-1 ATS), all inside the ACC. On Tuesday at Clemson, the Jackets lost 91-80 catching 6½ points, their sixth straight road loss, though they’ve won nine in a row at home (4-2 ATS in lined games). At home this season, Tech has outshot its opponents by more than 10 percent (46.2-36.0), scoring 75 ppg and allowing 60.2 ppg.
In this rivalry, VaTech is on a 4-1 SU run (2-3 ATS), and the road team is 5-2 ATS since the Hokies joined the ACC in the 2004-05 season. Last year, Virginia Tech prevailed 76-71 at home, but Georgia Tech got the cash as a 7½-point pup.
The Hokies are in ATS funks 1-4-1 overall (all in the ACC) and 1-3-1 against winning teams, and the Yellow Jackets are on pointspread dives of 2-5-1 overall (all in the ACC), 2-5-1 against winning teams and 1-4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. However, Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 at home, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 after a SU loss and 5-2-1 following a non-cover.
VaTech is on “under” runs of 5-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 after a SU win and 4-1 on Saturday. Likewise, Georgia Tech is on “under” surges of 6-2 after a SU loss, 5-2 after a non-cover, 5-2 at home and 12-5 against teams with a win percentage above .600. In this rivalry, though, the total has gone high in three straight, after a 4-0 “under” stretch.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
(16) Tennessee (27-9, 11-14-1 ATS) at Mississippi State (21-9, 13-11-1 ATS)
Mississippi State tries to lock up the SEC West title and the No. 2 seed in the upcoming conference tournament when it hosts the Volunteers at the Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, Miss.
Tennessee followed up last Saturday’s impressive 74-65 upset victory at home over second-ranked Kentucky with Monday’s 80-73 win over Arkansas, but came up short as an 11½-point home favorite. The Vols have won four of their last five, but they’re mired in a 3-9 ATS slump. During that 12-game stretch, Bruce Pearl’s club has lost three of five on the highway (all in the SEC), going 1-4 ATS.
The Bulldogs saw their Big Dance chances take a severe hit Wednesday when they lost 89-80 at Auburn as a two-point road favorite, ending three-game winning streak. Mississippi State has won five of seven overall, and has a one-game lead over Ole Miss in the SEC West. However, the Bulldogs have been very inconsistent at the betting window lately, going 3-4-1 ATS in their last seven games, but they’re 6-1 in SEC home games (3-3-1 ATS), the only loss coming to then No. 1 Kentucky in overtime (81-75).
Tennessee beat the Bulldogs 81-76 but failed to cover as a nine-point home favorite in last year’s regular-season meeting, extending its winning streak in this series to five in a row. However, that run ended less than three weeks later in the SEC tournament, as Mississippi State scored a 64-61 upset as a 5½-point underdog.
Prior to last year, the Vols had been on a 6-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Starkville. Also, the underdog has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings, including the last three in a row.
The Vols are in ATS slumps of 3-9 overall (all in the SEC), 1-5 on the road and 2-5 after a SU victory. Mississippi State is on positive pointspread surges of 3-1-1 at home, 9-4-1 on Saturday, 11-5 after either a SU or ATS setback and 15-7 versus winning teams.
Tennessee sports “under” streaks of 17-7 overall, 11-4 on the highway, 7-3 in conference, 4-0 on Saturday, 19-8 after a SU victory and 7-0 after a non-cover. The under is also 5-1 in the Bulldogs’ last six on Saturday, 5-0 in their last five after a SU loss and 5-1 in their last six after an ATS setback. However, the over has been the play in six of Mississippi State’s last eight at Humphrey Coliseum.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
North Carolina (16-14, 10-18 ATS) at (4) Duke (25-5, 17-10-2 ATS)
The Blue Devils, looking to put the finishing touches on a perfect home season and clinch at least a share of the ACC regular-season title, welcome archrival North Carolina to Cameron Indoor Stadium in the finale for both teams.
The Tar Heels have posted back-to-back ACC wins for the first time this season, knocking off Wake Forest 77-68 as a seven-point underdog last Saturday followed by Tuesday’s 69-62 win over Miami, Fla., as a 4½-point home chalk. Not only has UNC won consecutive games for the first time since a three-game winning streak to end 2009, but it has covered the spread in back-to-back contests for the first time since early December (a stretch of 20 games).
Duke fell apart in the final minute of Wednesday’s game against Maryland, losing 79-72 as a one-point road favorite. The normally sharpshooting Blue Devils made just 39.4 percent of their field goals, while the stout defense let the Terps connect on 50 percent of their shots. Wednesday’s loss snapped Duke’s eight-game overall and nine-game ACC winning streaks, and dropped coach Mike Krzyzewksi’s squad into a tie with Maryland atop the ACC standings.
Although the Blue Devils are just 4-4-2 ATS in their last 10 outings, they’ve suffered consecutive ATS losses just once all season (back on Dec. 2 and 5).
Last Saturday’s win at Wake Forest ended the Tar Heels’ four-game SU and ATS road losing skid, all against ACC foes. The defending champs are just 3-9 in road/neutral-site games (4-8 ATS). Meanwhile, Duke is 16-0 at Cameron Indoor (10-4-1 ATS in lined action), outscoring visitors by 26.1 ppg (86.2-60.1) and outshooting them 47.1 percent to 38.2 percent. The Blue Devils have won 18 in a row at home (11-5-1 ATS) going back to last year’s 101-87 home loss to the Tar Heels as a two-point underdog.
Duke took the 13-mile trek to Chapel Hill on Feb. 10 and whipped the Tar Heels 64-54, covering as a 5½-point road favorite. Previously, UNC had won three in a row and six of seven in this rivalry, including four consecutive SU and ATS wins at Cameron Indoor. The Blue Devils have cashed in the last two meetings after the Tar Heels had been on a 6-1 ATS roll. Finally, this series has been dominated by the underdog (13-5 ATS last 18 battles).
Prior to covering in its last two outings, North Carolina had been in a 4-14 ATS slump, including 1-7 ATS away from Chapel Hill. Additionally, the defending champs are on pointspread slides of 7-19 in ACC play, 1-7 after a SU win, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 4-9 versus winning teams. Duke is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 Saturday outings, but otherwise the Devils are on ATS runs of 6-2-2 in ACC play, 10-4-1 at home and 7-0 after a non-cover.
North Carolina is on “under” runs of 16-5 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 14-2 in ACC play, 4-0 on Saturday, 4-0 after a SU win and 7-0 after a spread-cover. Likewise, Duke carries “under” trends of 6-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 27-11 in the ACC and 5-1 on Saturday. Finally, the under has hit in three of the last four Duke-Carolina clashes, with last month’s contest falling way short of the 155½-point price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER
UAB (23-6, 14-12-1 ATS) at (24) UTEP (23-5, 12-12 ATS)
Having already wrapped up the Conference USA regular-season championship thanks to a 13-game winning streak, UTEP now attempts to enhance its Tournament resume – and damage the Blazers’ in the process – as these league rivals cap the regular season at the Don Haskins Center.
UAB suffered a critical 70-65 home loss to Memphis on Wednesday, failing as a 3½-point home favorite. The Blazers, who likely need to win today and make a deep run in next week’s conference tourney to qualify for the Big Dance, had won four in a row (3-0-1 ATS) prior to Wednesday. They have won three straight road games (all in Conference USA), going 2-0-1 ATS. For the season, UAB is 10-3 away from Birmingham (7-5-1 ATS), despite outscoring opponents by barely four ppg (67.1-62.9).
The Miners won their 13th in a row Tuesday, rallying from a seven-point halftime deficit at Marshall and prevailing 80-76 as a 2½-point road underdog. It was the eighth time during this 13-game run that UTEP escaped with a single-digit victory, and it is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 following an 0-6 ATS drought. The Miners have won all seven of their Conference USA home games, but they’re just 2-5 ATS (all as a favorite). Going back to Dec. 29, UTEP has failed to cover in seven of nine at the Haskins Center.
The Miners needed overtime to knock off UAB 74-65 as a four-point road underdog on Jan. 30. UTEP has won the last two meetings (including last year’s 70-52 rout as a one-point favorite in El Paso) following a four-game series winning streak by UAB. Also, the Miners are on a 3-0 ATS run in this rivalry after going 0-3 ATS in the previous three. Finally, the host has won seven of the nine all-time meetings in Conference USA play (5-4 ATS).
The Blazers are on ATS runs of 3-1-1 overall (all in conference) and 3-1-1 on the road. UTEP’s 2-7 ATS slide at home is offset by positive pointspread streaks of 5-2 overall (all in conference), 5-1 on Saturday and 6-2 versus winning teams.
UAB is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall (all in C-USA) and 5-2 on the road, but the Blazers also are on “over” streaks of 4-1 on Saturday and 15-6 after a SU defeat. Also, the Miners carry “over” trends of 4-1 overall, 17-5 on Saturday, 43-20-1 after a SU win and 18-8-1 after a non-cover. Finally, four of the last six in this rivalry have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (35-24, 28-30-1 ATS) at Memphis (32-30, 34-27-1 ATS)
The Grizzlies look to put an end to their bizarre home-road trend when they welcome the Spurs to the FedEx Forum for a key Southwest Division matchup.
San Antonio arrives in Memphis fresh off Friday’s 102-91 victory over New Orleans as an eight-point home chalk. The Spurs have won three in a row and four of their last five, but they continue to struggle to cash tickets, going 3-5 ATS in their last eight games and 8-14 ATS in their last 22 going back to Jan. 15. Also, prior to hammering the Hornets 106-92 in New Orleans on Monday, the Spurs had lost three in a row on the road SU and four straight on the highway ATS.
Memphis is returning home after back-to-back upset victories in New Orleans on Wednesday (104-100 as a 2½-point underdog) and Chicago on Thursday (105-96 as a five-point ‘dog). The Grizzlies have won five straight road games (5-0 ATS), but they’ve dropped seven in a row (1-6 ATS) and eight of nine (2-7 ATS) at home. Even more peculiar, prior to this home slump, Memphis had won 11 in a row at the FedEx Forum (7-3-1 ATS).
The home team has taken seven of the last nine in this rivalry, including both meetings this season, as Memphis won 92-86 as a 1½-point home favorite on Jan. 16 and then went to San Antonio 13 days later and fell 104-97 as a five-point underdog. The host is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 series clashes, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven and the SU winner is on a 7-1-1 ATS run.
Both teams carry a bunch of negative pointspread trends, with San Antonio failing to cover in five of eight overall and four of five on the road, while Memphis is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven home contests and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against the Western Conference. However, one bright spot for the Grizzlies is their 8-3 ATS roll on Saturday.
The over is on upticks of 5-2 for San Antonio overall, 4-0 for San Antonio on the road, 4-1 for San Antonio against division rivals, 4-1 for Memphis versus Southwest foes and 6-2 for the Grizzlies on Saturday. Conversely, the Spurs carry “under” trends of 6-1 on Saturday, 19-7-1 when going on back-to-back nights and 12-5 versus winning teams, while Memphis has stayed low in four of five at home.
Finally, 21 of the last 31 Spurs-Grizzlies get-togethers have stayed under the total including the last four in Memphis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tom Stryker
KANSAS ST (-) over Iowa St
With a 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS record in its last 13 games, Iowa State is obviously playing some of its worst basketball of the season. Things won't get any easier for the Cyclones when they visit Bramlage Coliseum on Saturday night. Kansas State returns to Manhattan off its 82-65 beating at rival Kansas and the Wildcats will be looking to administer a little of their own pain here.
If you need a couple of technical reasons to lay the lumber with KSU on Saturday, please consider the following: K State is a spotless 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight meetings against ISU. Equally impressive, the Cats are a stellar 36-21-1 ATS at home since 2005 including 26-11 ATS in this role favored by -6 points or more.
With a victory tonight, KSU will grab sole possession of the No. 2 spot in the Big 12 standings. Wildcat seniors Luis Colon and Chris Merriewether have won more games than any class in school history. These two seasoned veterans will close out their stellar careers with one more "W"! Take Kansas State. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Villanova over West Virginia
Jay Wright doing an outstanding job of recruiting big time talent, but the inside game is surely been the demise of his club down the stretch. However, we find the ‘Cats at the Wachovia Center in the early afternoon facing “hated” West Virginia and their sparkling coach “Huggy Bear.” The key in this set for Villanova will be, how well they defend Da’Sean Butler of West Virginia. My guess, this will be a very close game until the last two minutes when ‘Nova wins and covers at the foul line. Villanova is 12-1 SU at home this season and 4-0 ATS versus a winning road team. The Mounties are 2-6 ATS after an ATS win with the Wildcats a perfect 4-0 ATS last four outings on even numbered days.
Charlie Scott
Wyoming vs. UNLV
Play: Under 145
With UNLV we know we will get a good solid effort on the defensive end. Wyoming is playing without it's top 2 offensive threats for the last month. While Wyoming struggles to score on offense, they give effort on defense and rebound the best they can. UNLV Coach Kruger does not run up scores on the offensive end, the Colorado st game is a perfect example where UNLV could have scored 90 if they wanted to, but instead won 70-39. While Kruger doesn't run up the score on offense, UNLV reserves better give effort on defense or be in the dog house. I do expect UNLV to get a big lead and then rest starters for the Mountain West Tournament.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota +3.5
The Wolves fit a solid home dog system in this game. What we want to do is play on certain home dogs with 1 or more day of rest that scored 100 or more on the road in their last game as a dog of 5 or more. If the opponent tonight scored 90 or less as a home favorite in their last game. The home team covers exactly 90% of the time in this system since 1995. Houston is coming off a tough 84-81 loss at home to the Kings. Tonight they travel to Minnesota to take on the Wolves who played Dallas tooth and nail the other night before falling 112-109. Minnesota is 8-2 ats this year as a home dog of 4.5 or less. Look for a solid effort here from the Wolves.
Karl Garrett
Texas A&M (-4') at OKLAHOMA
9-5 my last 14 comp plays!
Mark Turgeon's A&M Aggies are improving their Big Dance stock, as A&M is fresh off back-to-back wins and covers over Texas and Oklahoma State. True, both of those games were at College Station, but with the Sooners clearly a bit off this season, I expect Texas A&M to handle matters at the Noble Center this Saturday afternoon.
Oklahoma has lost their last 7, all in Big 12 play, and they are on a 3-8 spread run their last 11 lined contests.
The Aggies have proven to be "road warriors", going 9-4 away from home this season, and a whopping 42-19 overall their last 61 road contests.
A&M is also 21-7 their last 28 in conference play, and are looking for their first regular season sweep of the Sooners since the 2007 season.
Going with the road team in this one.
3♦ TEXAS A&M
Syracuse at LOUISVILLE (+1')
Talk about a "story book" way to close out historic Freedom Hall...How about Louisville pulling the outright upset over the # 1 ranked Syracuse Orangemen?
OK, it probably won't happen, but I do think the points are worth a look with a Louisville team that could most definitely punch their Big Dance ticket with the win today.
The Cards have had Syracuse's number, winning 5 in a row, and 6 of the last 7. That streak includes handing the Orange one of their two losses this season, a 66-60 win at the Carrierdome on Valentine's Day.
No arguing the credentials of Boeheim's team, but the storyline in this matchup is just too good to pass on.
Louisville to close historic Freedom Hall the right way!
1♦ LOUISVILLE
Stephen Nover
Texas at BAYLOR (-3)
I've won four of my last five complementary selections and today we're getting into the Big 12 with this one.
It seems hard to believe now, but Texas was the No. 1 team in the country less than two months ago.
Now the Longhorns are unranked. They are a horrific 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games.
Baylor is the better team and is at home where the Bears have won 14 of 15.
Texas used to dominate this series, but not anymore. The Bears knocked off the Longhorns in the semifinals of last year's Big 12 Conference Tournament and this year they edged the Longhorns, 80-77, in overtime at Texas.
It takes good perimeter shooting to beat Baylor and its effective zone defense. But in three of their last four games, the Longhorns have shot 36.8, 40.3 and 40.4 percent from the floor.
The Longhorns don't inspire much confidence as a road team either, going 7-18-1 in their past 26 away matchups.
2♦ BAYLOR
Hawaii at IDAHO (-11)
You would be hard-pressed to find a worse road team than the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
The Warriors are winless in eight road games this season, losing by an average of 18.2 points per game.
If the Warriors could have defeated Boise State in their last game, they would have gotten into the Western Athletic Conference Tournament.
Now for that to happen, the Warriors need to upset Idaho as a double-digit road underdog and hope for help from other teams.
That's not going to happen. The Warriors probably are going to mail this one in, or they will if they start falling behind since they'll have no incentive.
Hawaii is 1-9 in its last 10 games. Injuries, a total inability to compete on the road and a suspension to second-leading scorer Dwain Williams zapped its spirit.
Idaho is a mediocre 13-15. The Vandals, though, take care of business against teams they are better than. All of their conference victories have come against teams that will finish in fifth place or lower.
This includes a 59-52 win at Hawaii in early January. The Vandals are the team with the incentive. They are hoping to make a deep run in the WAC Tournament, which mind land them an invitation to a post-season tournament such as the College Basketball Invitational or CollegeInsider.com.
2♦ IDAHO
Chuck O'Brien
North Carolina at DUKE (-14')
Take Duke and lay the points against North Carolina in ACC hoops action on Saturday.
Beyond the obvious rivalry aspect, this is a very meaningful game to Duke, which lost at Maryland on Wednesday and now is tied with the Terps atop the ACC. If Maryland wins at Virginia earlier today, that forces the Blue Devils to win tonight to share the regular-season conference title; if Maryland loses, Duke would need a victory for the outright crown.
Even though North Carolina (16-14 overall, 5-10 in the ACC) is obviously way down this year, don’t expect the Blue Devils to have any sympathy. After all, John Scheyer and the Duke senior class (playing its final home game tonight) has never defeated North Carolina in Durham – in fact, the Blue Devils have lost the last four home meetings to their rivals in powder blue (Duke has two losses in the last three seasons at home, both to Carolina).
That fact, along with the motivation to win the ACC championship (and get the top seed for next week’s conference tournament), along with the opportunity to finish with a perfect home record, will serve as ample motivation for Duke, which is 16-0 SU and 10-4-1 ATS at home this year, with 15 of the 16 wins being by double digits. Meanwhile, UNC has cashed just five times in its last 18 games, and two of those covers came in their last two contests (wins over Wake Forest and Miami). But the Tar Heels haven’t had three consecutive SU wins the entire ACC season; they also haven’t had three straight ATS wins all year long.
4♦ DUKE