Bobby Maxwell
USC at ARIZONA (-3)
Delivered the FREE winner on Friday night with the Thunder as they went to Los Angeles and blew out the Clippers. That win improves my free play run to 62-30-3 with my last 95 selections. Tonight I have another college winner for you as I go with Arizona at home to get the win and cover over USC.
This Arizona team is showing a little bit of spunk, a little bit of character. They have rallied to win their last two games and tonight play a USC team that just can’t score enough points to win a game.
The Wildcats rallied to beat UCLA 78-73 on Thursday, cashing as a 4 ½-point favorite. A week ago they rallied to win at Stanford 71-69 as a three-point underdog. I think what’s happening is these guys are finally buying into the system and the rotation of Nic Wise, Kyle Fogg and Lamont Jones is working. Those are three guards who can play and light it up.
USC has dropped four straight games and gone just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 outings. Over their last five games, the Trojans have managed just 51.2 points and 37.8 percent shooting. Meanwhile, at home, Arizona puts up 74.9 points a game. There’s just not a lot of room for error on the Trojans’ side.
Arizona is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 Saturday games and 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games as favorite. USC is 0-4 ATS on Saturdays and 2-5 ATS in Pac-10 contests. Look for Arizona to pull away in the second half and win this one by 10. Play the Wildcats.
4♦ ARIZONA
Jeff Benton
Brutal backdoor beat with Friday’s free-play on the Nuggets, ending my four-day win streak with freebies. Still, I’m on runs of 33-15-1, 23-9-1, 20-8-1 and 14-5-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday’s comp selection, I’ll play Louisville in a desperation spot against Syracuse in the regular-season finale for both teams.
I know that the Orange have won five in a row. I know they’re perfect away from home this season (11-0). I know they’re the top-ranked team in the country this week. And I know they’re probably interested in avenging they’re most recent loss (and one of only two defeats they’ve suffered all season), a 66-60 defeat to Louisville as a 7½-point home favorite back on Feb. 14. I get all that.
However, this game is completely and totally irrelevant to Syracuse, which has already clinched the Big East title and the top seed in next week’s conference tourney. Hell, the Orange have almost certainly locked up a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. If anything, coming off those two huge home wins, it’s a letdown spot. Jim Boeheim’s main goal for the next 10 days? Just keep his guys healthy.
On the flip side, Louisville is in must-win mode. By splitting its last 14 games, including dropping two of its last three, it needs to keep winning to impress the Tournament committee and get off the bubble. And obviously, a loss to Syracuse today would completely wipe away the positive of beating the Orange three weeks ago in New York. Surely, there’s a fine line between motivation and pressure, but I trust that Rick Pitino can navigate that fine line with this players today.
This much we know: Freedom Hall will be rocking today (No. 1 team in the country and Big East champ visiting on Senior Day), so that certainly gives the Cardinals an edge. They also have an edge in series history, as they’ve now defeated Syracuse five straight times, cashing in the last four (the other was a pointspread push). That can only do wonders for Louisville’s confidence.
7♦ LOUISVILLE
Brett Atkins
I'm 11-9 with my last 20 free plays and delivering a college hoops winner for you today as I lay the chalk with Kansas and Jayhawks visiting Missouri in a Big 12 matchup.
Kansas makes the trek to Missouri to take on the Tigers and I am loving this line as the Jayhawks are at least 15 points better than the Tigers and will show it in a blowout win today.
Kansas rebounded from Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma State with an 82-65 win at home against Kansas State on Wednesday, cashing as an 8 ½-point favorite. They got 19 points from Xavier Henry and 17 from Sherron Collins as center Cole Aldrich didn’t have a good game with only nine points and four boards. He’ll do some damage tonight.
Missouri was at Iowa State on Tuesday, escaping in overtime 69-67, but failing to cover as a five-point favorite, the Tigers second straight non-cover.
Kansas beat the hell out of Missouri on Jan. 25, winning 84-65 as a 12-point home favorite. Last year they crushed the Tigers 90-65 as a 4 ½-point favorite and have cashed in four straight against Missouri and six of the last eight.
The Jayhawks have won and covered in two of their last three trips to Missouri and I expect the same today. Lay the small chalk with Kansas.
3♦ KANSAS
Joel Tyson
Outright winner Thursday on Miami, and an outright winner on Kent on Friday, now 8-3 the last 11 days with my comp plays.
Kansas best be on the look-out for a possible slip up in Columbia this Saturday, as Mizzou has gone 17-1 straight up on their home floor, and 9-4 against the spread in their lined home games this year.
Problem is, the Jayhawks were just stunned at Stillwater against Oklahoma State, so you can assume KU will be on guard this Saturday afternoon.
The other problem for the Tigers is their 1-6 straight up mark their last 7 series showdowns with the Jayhawks, and their not-much-better 2-5 spread mark in those 7 meetings.
Don't mind laying a couple with the Rock-Chalkers here at all.
3♦ KANSAS
Great Lakes Sports
UCLA at Arizona State
Pick: Arizona State
The Arizona State Sun Devils are a respectable 15-9 ATS vs the UCLA Bruins since 1997, and the Arizona State Sun Devils are 19-13 ATS when the total is between 120 to 129.5 the last three year. The Arizona State Sun Devils is also 8-4 ATS against teams with a losing record the last three years, and they are 31-25 ATS when playing after a conference game the last three years. We look for the Arizona State Sun Devils to grab the home ATS Win & Cover tonight.
Tom Freese
St. Bonaventure at Xavier
Prediction: Xavier
Saint Bonaventure is 14-14 overall and 7-8 in League Play. Andrew Nicholson scores 16 points and 7.3 rebounds a game. Jonathan Hall scores 13.4 points while shooting 39% from behind the arc. Chris Matthews scores 12.1 points a game. The Bonnies score 70.3 points a game and they shoot under 66% from the foul line. Saint Bonaventure is 2-5 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with a win percentage over 60% and they are 2-6-1 ATS their last 9 meetings with the Musketeers. Xavier is 22-7 overall and they are 13-2 in League Play. Guard Jordan Crawford scores 19.6 points a game while shooting 39% from behind the arc. Center Jason Love scores 11.8 points and 8.6 rebounds a game. Guard Terrell Holloway scores 11.4 points a night. No other players score more than 8.7 points a game. The Musketeers score 79.5 points a game. Xavier is 19-7-2 ATS their last 28 home games and they are 33-16-2 ATS their last 51 games overall. PLAY ON XAVIER -
EZWINNERS
Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5
The Nittany Lions have the talent to play with anyone in the Big Ten. Penn State gave No. 11 Michigan State all it could handle for 40 minutes before falling 67-65 in the Breslin Center in their last game. Six of the Nittany Lions fourteen conference losses have been by six points or fewer. PSU defeated Purdue at the Jordan Center last season, and this time around the Boilermakers will be without forward Robbie Hummel who was lost for the season due to a knee injury. The home team is 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams and the Boilermakers are only 2-11 against the spread in their last 13 games against a team with a losing record. Take the point
James Patrick Sports
California vs. Stanford
The Golden Bears are having a solid season in Pac Ten action but they face their bitter rival at the Farm in Palo Alto on Saturday and Cal is just (3-7) ATS at Stanford and (6-14) in their past (20) meetings in this series. It's the final home game for the Cardinal and they haven't forgotten the (92-66) Blasting they took at Cal earlier.
Jorge Gonzalez
Florida State vs. Miami Florida
Play: FSU -2
The Florida State Seminoles are 9-7 in conference play but will not let down here against the Miami Hurricanes. The Seminoles are coming off a 51-47 victory over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Since the ACC expanded the amount of teams in the conference there have been 25 teams that have had winning record in conference play and 23 of those teams were in the tournament. One of he teams that was left were the Seminoles and they will not let their guard down here in this spot. The Seminoles have seven of the last eights meetings and are 5-1-2 ATS. The Hurricanes started the season strong but have came back down to reality in the conference play with a record of 4-11. The Hurricanes have lost four of their last five games and lost the first meeting between these two squads 71-65. Take Florida State here in this spot.
BIG AL
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis +1.5
Last night, the Spurs defeated the New Orleans Hornets at home in the Alamo City, and Gregg Popovich's crew has definitely had the Hornets' number this season, winning all three games. But this match-up tonight in Memphis spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for the Spurs, as San Antonio is a terrible 34% ATS as an UNRESTED favorite (or PK) off back-to-back wins. The Spurs come into this contest on a three-game win streak, so they fall squarely within their negative 34% ATS team situation. Memphis is 6-2 ATS its last eight, including impressive upset road wins over the Hornets and Bulls its last two games. With Memphis a solid 21-10 ATS off a win this season, we'll take the home dog Grizzlies on Saturday.
Jack Jones
UNLV -18.5
At 22-7 this season, UNLV is doing everything in their power to convince the tournament committee that they belong in the field of 64. UNLV has not only won 3 straight, but they've done it running away. The Rebels beat Colorado State 70-39 at home, following by a 78-62 home win over TCU and then a 77-47 road win at Air Force. This team is leaving nothing to chance right now, and they'll be laying it all on the line again Saturday on Senior Night. This play falls under a system that is 38-11 (77%) over the last 5 years. It tells us to bet on home teams as a favorite or pick (UNLV) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, in March games. Roll with UNLV in a blowout.
Black Widow
1* on Texas A&M -3.5
A win Saturday would solidify Texas A&M's place in the NCAA Tournament as they travel to Oklahoma and take on a Sooners' team with nothing to play for. The Aggies are 7-2 S.U. & 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall. This team is finishing out the season like champions, and they put the exclamation point on it Saturday. The Aggies are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Oklahoma has lost 7 straight games and cannot be very motivated to play this game Saturday afternoon. Take Texas A&M and lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Idaho -10.5
Reasons why Idaho covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (IDAHO) - off a home win by 10 points or more, in March games. This is a 36-10 ATS System hitting 88% over the last 5 seasons. Bet Idaho at home.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Texas Longhorns +3
It's been a fall from grace for the Horns, going from the No. 1 ranked team in the country to unranked. But now all the pressure is gone, and I expect the immensely talented Longhorns to pay Baylor back for an earlier season loss here. Texas has won 11 straight over the Bears on the road and it will not be lacking any motivation today. Plus, plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3, very good team outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game, in March games, are 24-6 ATS since 1997. On top of that, Baylor is only 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and allow 42% or worse shooting over the last 3 seasons. You also have to like the fact that Baylor is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons, losing in these games by an average score of 71 to 77. Take Texas.
Matt Rivers
Notre Dame +7.5
I don't know what it is but this Notre Dame team has found something. Luke Harangody is a beast but maybe, just maybe, without him they have opened things up and become a better team. It's kind of crazy to really believe that but the results do speak for themself.
The Fighting Irish seem to be fighting once again and have literally played their way right back onto the bubble which seemed pretty impossible to do a few short weeks ago. I have always liked Mike Bray as a coach and we are seeing how good he can be once again.
Abromaitis, Hansbrough (and yes it's Tyler's little brother) and Jackson have been on-fire as we have seen in this three game winning streak and to get such a number back here is too good to pass up in what could shape up to be an elimination game for the visitors if they lose.
Marquette has quietly had a great season behind Buzz Williams and definitely deserve to make the tournament. These guys are very good but they are not a team that scores a ton or has blowout potential. The Golden Eagles have been involved in one tight game after another and have played in a bunch of overtime games. They know how to win but they rarely win by much.
The Eagles did just pound Louisville in impressive fashion but the three wins before that were by a combined six points.
Hayward, Butler, Johnson-Odom and Acker form a squad that probably will win this game as well at home but it'll be par for the course when this thing ends by a deuce.