Wunderdog
Northern Illinois at Ball State
Pick: Northern Illinois +10.5
Over the past three seasons, the Huskies are 27-15 ATS on the road. Under head coach Mark Montgomery, the Huskies are 9-2 ATS on the road after an ATS loss and 10-2 ATS following a game in which they scored 55 or less. Dating back to last season, Ball State is 7-16 ATS as a favorite. Northern Illinois has mustered all of four wins this season against Division-1 competition and enter here on a nine-game losing streak. Most will look at them unfavorably here because of the extended losing streak, but what they don't realize is that over the last seven years in NCAA basketball, teams on a nine-game losing streak cover over 55% of the time. Ball State has climbed to the .500 mark on the strength of four straight wins, covering all four of them. This situation doesn't occur frequently, but a team on a nine-game losing streak vs. a team on a four-game ATS streak are 3-0 ATS, as a subset of the above. Make the play on the dog, and back Northern Illinois.
Tony Karpinski
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards
The Bobcats handle the ball pretty well behind Kemba Walker, and his usual sound play, but he has been struggling as of late, the only real bright spot for Charlotte on the season. And if there is one thing the Wizards can do, is play some defense, only giving up 96/game (6th in the league). Washington has been playing affably as of late, with wins against Houston and Denver, Charlotte has been, well, they have been Charlotte. Although the Bobcats matchup well with Washington, with a few wins over them already on the season, this game, the Wizards get their revenge at home. Where Martell Webster plays against Charlotte better and the Bobcats can’t shoot against Washington. I expect the Washington Wizards to win by 15-20 pts.
Teddy Covers
St. Mary's vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego
When these two teams met last month, St Mary’s struggled to pull away from San Diego, pushing against the spread with a ten point victory. Since that time, San Diego has only gotten better, including last night’s outright upset over BYU as 11.5 point underdogs.
The Toreros top three scorers – wing Johnny Dee, wing Ken Rancifer and point guard Chris Anderson -- are all on the top of their games right now, giving San Diego the firepower they need to hang around against St Mary’s.
The Gaels aren’t focused on this matchup – they’re looking forward to a major revenge game against Gonzaga tomorrow. The Gaels have beaten San Diego four straight times and nine times in the last ten meetings, even though this has been an underdog series (18-7-1 ATS for the dog in the last 26 matchups).
Look for St Mary’s to exert as little energy as possible this evening, saving their best for tomorrow’s game. That should allow San Diego to cover the generous number here. Take San Diego.
Andre Gomes
Brooklyn / Atlanta Under 189.5
This is a really tough spot for Atlanta, as they played a 6-game road trip in the West, then they returned home to beat Philadelphia and yesterday, they went to Boston where they lost on overtime. The Hawks used their starters a lot in Boston, with Jeff Teague, Josh Smith and Al Horford playing 44 minutes each. Now, they will play a back to back game at home against Brooklyn, on a really tough spot for them. As the Nets have a huge frontcourt unit, I don't believe Coach Drew will use Josh Smith and Al Horford on their own on the frontcourt. Therefore, I expect him to repeat the same lineup from yesterday, with Johan Petro as the starting center. I also believe that Deshawn Stevenson will be the starting SG in order to defend Joe Johnson. Devin Harris starting tonight would be a big mistake for Atlanta tonight.
With these changes, Atlanta loses a lot of their transition game, as Johan Petro and Deshawn Stevenson prevent them from running early on the shotclock. The Hawks scored just 9 fast break points against Boston in 53 minutes and this lineup and Brooklyn's style, I expect this contest to be a halfcourt game. Brooklyn is coming from a home win against Washington, where Deron Williams was amazing with 15-24 FG and 11-16 3pts! However, the rest of the team shot just 16-57 (28%) FG, while dishing just 14 assists! Joe Johnson is playing banged up, while Deron Williams isn't at 100% from his ankle as well, so the Nets are likely to suffer a lot on a back to back spot with these two players banged up. On a half court battle and with this configuration of the Hawks, Brooklyn will have a lot of problems on their offensive flow. Therefore, I see this game being a low scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
NHL Predictions
Carolina Hurricanes -114
New Jersey enters this game in Carolina coming off a come from behind 3-2 shootout win over Buffalo, which snapped a 6 game losing streak. The Devils have won just twice in their last 10 games, and they are just 4-5-3 on the road. The Hurricanes are 13-9-1 on the season and 6-5 at home. Carolina lost their last game 4-2 which was at home vs Montreal, but the Hurricanes outshot Montreal 43-28. Carolina had won 4 straight previous to their last game and are 5-2 in their last 7 games. These two teams have met once this year on February 12th in New Jersey and the Hurricanes won that one 4-2. New Jersey is really struggling to score, with 3 or fewer (often 2 or fewer) goals in 10 straight games. The Hurricanes have 23 goals over their last 7 games (over 3 goals per game). Take Carolina at home.
LEGIT PICKS
Saturday 3/9/13 Plays...
4* ALBANY -9.5 (5PM PST)
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