Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, May 11

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Atlanta at San Francisco
The Braves look to take advantage of a San Francisco team that is 0-6 in Madison Bumgarner's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Atlanta is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115)

Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.174; NY Mets (Niese) 13.697
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over

Game 903-904: Colorado at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 14.673; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.673
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Under

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 15.058; Washington (Strasburg) 16.938
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-210); Under

Game 907-908: Atlanta at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Maholm) 16.275; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.252
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115); Over

Game 909-910: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Burgos) 14.244; Cincinnati (Latos) 15.544
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-185); Under

Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 16.225; Arizona (Cahill) 15.024
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Over

Game 913-914: Miami at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Slowey) 15.582; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.339
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+165); Over

Game 915-916: Toronto at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 14.051; Boston (Buchholz) 15.645
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-210); Under

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 16.029; Detroit (Verlander) 17.294
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-220); Under

Game 919-920: Baltimore at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Johnson) 15.624; Minnesota (Worley) 16.553
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over

Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.044; Kansas City (Shields) 14.981
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+130); Over

Game 923-924: Texas at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 15.015; Houston (Bedard) 12.959
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-260); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-260); Under

Game 925-926: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Williams) 13.895; White Sox (Quintana) 14.432
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-120); Under

Game 927-928: Oakland at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 14.974; Seattle (Maurer) 14.221
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Over

Game 929-930: San Diego at Tampa Bay (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Smith) 15.550; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 17.248
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Over

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

When the Phillies send Cliff Lee to the mound against the Diamondbacks in Arizona Saturday evening they will do so knowing the crafty lefty is in commanding KW form once again this season with 49 strikeouts and 7 walks. He is also 4-1 in his career team starts against the Snakes. With that, look for Arizona's Trevor Cahill to come up a loser for the 3rd straight game in a row in games against the Phillies here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Jimmy Boyd

Kansas City Royals -144

The Kansas City Royals have quietly compiled an 18-13 record on the season so it is no surprise to see them favored on their home field today. The Yankees have been playing poorly over their past 7 games averaging just 2.7 runs per game. They have a .216 batting average and .278 on base percentage over that same span.

The Royals on the other hand have a .270 batting average over the past 7 games. Kansas City has won five of their last eight games and they have a very favorable advantage when facing a struggling Andy Pettitte. Pettitte is 0-2 in his last three starts with a 7.05 ERA. For Kansas City James Shields will take the mound. Shields has a 1.96 ERA in his last 3 starts so it is safe to say Kansas City is the hot team from every angle coming into this game.

Jack Jones

A's/Mariners Over 7½

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Oakland A's and Seattle Mariners. I look for a slugfest due to the lack of talent that will be on the mound in this one.

Jarrod Parker has been simply atrocious for Oakland. The right-hander is 1-5 with a 7.34 ERA and 1.981 WHIP through seven starts this season. Parker has allowed 28 earned runs and 68 base runners over 34 1/3 innings.

Seattle starter Brandon Maurer has only been slightly better, going 2-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.449 WHIP through six starts in 2013. He has allowed 20 earned runs and 43 base runners over 29 2/3 innings.

Parker is 1-2 with a 5.94 ERA in three career starts against Seattle. He has allowed 10 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Mariners. Maurer is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one career start against Oakland.

The OVER is 39-17-2 in Oakland's last 58 games overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Parker's last 7 starts overall. The OVER is 22-4 in A's last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 35-15-1 in A's last 51 games with a total set of 7.0-8.5. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Alex Smart

NY Islanders +155

The Islanders have already proven that they can beat the Pittsburgh Penguins. They lost game 1 by a 5-0 count and still bounced back with wins. Last time out in game 5 of this series, Thomas Vakoun stood tall for the Pens as they shut the Islanders out by a 4-0 score. Now with their backs against the wall the young speedy Islanders led by their super star John Tavares have the edge, and will come out here with all guns blazing. The linesmakers continue to play to public sentiment, and are giving the Islanders very little respect making them very viable home dogs in this spot. Wise guy money likes the Isles chances tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Play: Over 6½

These two have flown over in 7 of the last 9 in the series here in San Francisco. Last nights game had 10 runs scored despite a solid pitching matchup in Hudson and Cain. Today its a pair of lefthanders in Malholm for the Braves and Bumgarner for the Giants. Malholm has an elevated 6.23 era in his last 3 starts and has allowed 7 runs in 10 innings with 16 hits and 5 walks here. Bumgarner has a 3.60 home era and allowed 4 runs in 6 innings here vs the Braves last season. The Braves are scoring 5.6 runs the last week and have played over in their last 7. When they are road dogs from +100 to +125 all 5 times they have played over the total. The Giants have gone over in 9 of 12 as a home favorite from -125 to 130 and 6 of 8 in May. When playing a winning team 8 of 11 of their games have played over the total. Look for this game to get over the total as well.

Art Aronson

Texas Rangers -240

Yu Darvish (5-1, 2.56 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Darvish threw a career-high 127 pitches vs. the Red Sox on Sunday, going seven frames and finishing with 14 K's. Darvish afterwards commented that he could throw 200 pitches a game no problem: "I have no plans to change my pitching style; I'm not concerned about my pitch counts," Darvish said Thursday. "I don't look for strikeouts or go for strikeouts. I know my pitching coaches are concerned about my pitch counts because of all the strikeouts. But as long as I have four days to rest, I don't care how many pitches I throw." The 26-year old phenom will be opposed by the 34-year old Erik Bedard (0-2, 7.36 ERA) who will once again be moved from the bullpen to make this start. Bedard has made five starts and two relief appearances for Houston this year, going 0-2 with a deplorable 7.36 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. While I almost never play favorites of this size, in this case I believe that the clear talent discrepancy both on the mound and at the plate absolutely justifies in laying the larger price.

Jim Feist

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Oakland Athletics

The Athletics are 44-13 in their last 57 vs. a team with a losing record and 37-16 against the American League West. Oakland has a terrific offense, No. 1 in baseball in runs scored, 4th in on-base percentage. They face Seattle righty Brandon Maurer, who is 2-4 and saddled with a 6.07 ERA. The Mariners are 10-22 in their last 32 games following an off day. And when these teams meet the Athletics are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings, including 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Seattle.

Dave Cokin

Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Relentless. That's the best word I can come up with to describe the Baltimore Orioles. This team just refuses to roll over even when fall behind by a substantial margin, and talk about being tough as nails when the game is on the line. That fortitude was on display again Friday night as the Birds looked like easy losers against Minnesota. But when the dust settled after ten innings, it was another close and late win for the Orioles. Like I said, relentless.

Steve Johnson gets the start for the Orioles tonight. Johnson was in a spring training duel with Jake Arrieta for the final spot in the Baltimore rotation, but he lost out when he suffered a back injury. Now, following his rehab stint, Johnson is ready to go and this looms as a really huge opportunity for the righty. The Orioles would love to land on someone reliable for that fifth starting spot. Here's Johnson's chance to step forward and lay claim to a regular spot in the rotation. This is not a guy with tremendous stuff, but one thing we found about Johnson in his rookie campaign was that he's a gritty competitor who probably gets better results than he ought to. In other words, he fits right in with the personality of this team, and that's a positive.

Vance Worley has had some very rough outings for the Twins. Worley probably doesn't get as much from what he's got as he should. I can't tell you why that is, but Worley is a guy who should be good enough to be a solid mid-rotation type, but the reality is that he's nowhere close to that presently. He can look terrific for multiple innings but when he hits a rough patch, he seems to unravel. That figures to be a problem against an opportunistic entry like the Orioles.

The Twins were on a nice little roll coming out of a very good series at Fenway, and looked to be en route to a good win last night. But everything managed to fall apart and I think it's fair to say that Worley is not exactly stopper material thus far this season. I believe the right side tonight will be the Orioles, and agree with them being posted as road chalk.

Bruce Marshall

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Francisco Liriano returns to the bigs this afternoon at Citi Field as his Pirates look to make it two straight over the Mets following last night's 7-3 win. Recent Pittsburgh hitting stars Garrett Jones (batting .327 on the road) and Starling Marte (.355 away from home) continue to post big numbers but all eyes will be on Liriano, a one-time Twins ace who has battled arm problems in recent years. Fortunately for him he will be facing a punchless Mets offense that has managed just ten runs over its past four games and has provided little run support for starter Jonathon Niese, who has needed plenty of help in recent outings with a 5.l68 ERA over his last four starts. Liriano will likely be asked to only go five innings or so and allow the airtight Bucs bullpen a chance to close out the win. Play Pirates on Money Line

Bryan Power

Cleveland vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

It's VERY rare that I would even touch a line this high. But sometimes it's worth it. Such is the case Saturday night when Detroit sends out Justin Verlander to face the Cleveland Indians. As I expected, the Tigers beat the Indians down in Friday's series opener 10-4 (winner for me). Today, should be even easier.....

Over the last two seasons, Verlander has a perfect 13-0 team start record in home night games. That should be enough right there as we all know how good Verlander is. He comes in with a 1.55 ERA in seven starts and he's been even sharper lately with a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP his last three starts. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning his last start, a 9-0 win over Houston. He's allowed more than one earned run in only two starts this year. Meanwhile, after a dreadful start to the season Ubaldo Jimenez has won back to back starts for Cleveland. That ends here. His ERA is still 6.37 in six starts.

To rehash from yesterday's analysis, home field advantage has been huge in the past when these teams meet. The Indians are now just 8-29 here at Comerica Park since 2009. Detroit is now averaging around 6.5 runs per game at home. Cleveland is due to start giving some back after winning 10 of 11.

Allen Eastman

Seattle over Oakland

I am going with the visitors in this game. We should be able to get a nice underdog price on the Mariners, and I think that they will come through for me once again. The Mariners will be going with young Brandon Maurer in this game. The kid got off to a rocky start this year. But before his last start he has earned three straight quality starts against the Angels and Rangers. Maurer has a score to settle with the A's. They knocked him around for six runs in six innings in his MLB debut back on April 4. He is going to make adjustments. This series is in Seattle, and this is the final series of a long road trip for the A's. They played in New York and Cleveland and now they will be tired when they take on a division rival this weekend. Seattle has a day off on Friday. They will be well-rested and will take advantage. Go with the home team here. I think the line will be somewhere between Seattle (+110) and! Seattle (-115). Play the small number either way.

MATT RIVERS

Your comp play for Saturday is the Over in the Knicks-Pacers game.

Somehow the Pacers found themselves scoreless for over half of the 4th quarter on Tuesday night, as they let the Knicks run away with Game 2 and even the series.

That game wound up pushing the closing total of 184, but I don't think that will be the case this Saturday night. With a few extra days to rest, expect the offense to get humming early in Game 3, and expect the Knicks and the Pacers to head Over the posted total.

Indy is still 6-2-1 Over the total their last 9 games dating back to the regular season, and the Over also happens to be 6-0 the last 6 times the Pacers have set foot on their home hardwood this season.

2 of the last 3 series meetings played between the teams in Indianapolis have also played high, and with Stoudemire expected back for New York, look for the offense to get a bit of a boost.

I like Game 3 between the Knicks and the Pacers to make its way Over the total.

2* NEW YORK-INDIANA OVER

CRAIG DAVIS

Free play of the day on the Indiana Pacers over the NY Knicks in their first game at home.

Game 1 was not a fluke. The Pacers outworked and outhustled the Knicks and clearly played better defense... which has been their M.O. all season.

At times Indiana isn't a fun team to watch, but that boring brand of basketball can lull teams to sleep while they're quietly going on a 12-2 run to get back in a game or build a lead.

Either way, the Pacers get to come back home where they play a lot better and catch a team that needed a HUGE, late 4th quarter run to win their last basketball game.

Indiana has been in both games and could easily be heading home with a 2-0 lead. Don't think they forgot how Game 2 ended... they haven't.

The Pacers won their three home games in the first round by 18.3 points and have proven all regular season that they are one of the best home teams in the league.

The Knicks made the mistake of allowing Indiana to get that Game 1 win and now they have to steal one back on the road. It won't be today.

Take the Pacers as your free play of the day.

2* INDIANA