Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday May, 12

Marc Lawrence

New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Prediction: New York Mets

The Mets and Marlins meet in Game Two Saturday afternoon in Miami when R.A. Dickey matches serves with Ricky Nolasco at the new Marlins Stadium where, following last night's 6-5 win, the Fish improved to 2-7 this season against NL East opponents. Dickey enters the fray 4-0 with a microscopic 0.34 ERA in his last four team starts in this series while Nolasco has dropped each of his last three starts against the Marlins. In solid current form look, look for Dickey to improve to 8-4 in his last 12 road team starts during the month of May here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Washington Nationals

The Reds fit a negative system that plays against home favorites of less than -140 that are off a home dog loss and scored 4 or less runs and stranded 10 or more men on base, vs an opponent off a road favored win by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs and had 5+ men left on base. These home favorites have lost 7 of the last 8 times. The Reds are 4-11 in night games while averaging 3 runs per game on .219 hitting under the lights. Washington has won 4 of 5 Saturday games and has J. Zimmerman pitching tonight and he has a solid 1.38 road era and a stellar 2.12 era vs the Reds. Cincy has M. Latos going and his 4.50 home era is not as good as Zimmeran. The Nationals are a live dog here tonight.

David Chan

Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

I bet value where I see it and expect the home side to bounce back after last night's loss in the opener.

The Braves' (20-13) Brandon Beachy (3-1, 1.62 ERA) is set to square off against the Cardinals' (20-12) Adam Wainwright (2-3, 5.61 ERA) on the mound this evening.

In his last outing, Beachy gave up two runs and four hits over 6 1/3's frames of work in his team's 7-2 victory over Colorado last Sunday. In his lone start vs. St. Louis, Beachy gave up two runs over seven frames of work.

Wainwright is coming off his best performance of the year and I'm expecting the big right-hander to continue to build momentum. After Tommy John surgery sidelined Wainwright for all of 2011, he stumbled out of the blocks to start 2012, but gave up just one run with seven strikeouts over seven frames of working in his team's relatively easy victory over the Astros last Sunday.

After starting the year 0-3, Wainwright is now 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts.

And now Wainwright faces a team that he's dominated throughout his career; while past success guarantees nothing in the future, Wainwright can throw with added confidence tonight in knowing that he's won each of his last six starts vs. the Braves.

Atlanta won the opener of this series 9-7 last night, which snapped a four game win streak for St. Louis.

Fresh off hitting two home runs, the Cardinals' Carlos Beltran will look to get his team back in the win column today; Beltran is hitting .455 with seven home runs and 20 RBIs over his last nine games.

Anytime we can get a home side starter of Wainwright's caliber at this price, it's a gift.

Consider a second look at the St. Louis Cardinals this evening!

Ben Burns

Braves @ Cardinals
PICK: Under 7.5

We've done quite well (3-0-1) with free picks this week, each of them were on MLB "unders." Yesterday's under play (Pirates/Astros) finished with just one run. Given the current form of the scheduled starters, I feel this one will likely also be relatively low-scoring.

Beachy has been outstanding on the season. Through six starts, he's 3-1 with a 1.62 ERA and a 0.949 WHIP. He's only given up one home run all season. The "under" is 2-0-1 his last three starts.

Beachy has a 2.57 ERA and a superb 0.571 WHIP from his lone start vs. the Cardinals. He allowed just three hits through seven innings of a 3-2 game on 4/30/2011.

Wainwright's overall numbers aren't very good yet. He's really started to turn it around lately though. Over his last three starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, recording 20 K's to just three walks.

Wainwright should be happy to see the Braves. He's 6-0 with a 2.48 ERA as a starter against Atlanta. He went at least six innings in ALL six of those starts, allowing three earned runs or less in each. Consider the Under.

Red Dog Sports

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: San Diego Padres

I see plenty of value with San Diego at +185. Volquez starts for the Padres and he is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.40 in his recent starts while the Phillies counter with Roy Halladay, who has an ERA of 6.05 and is 0-3 in his last few starts. The Phils are under .500 this year. Take the San Diego Padres at +185 on Saturday.

Jim Feist

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
Pick: New York Mets

The Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 against the National League East and 5-2 in R.A. Dickey's last 7 starts. The Mets have been terrific on offense, 6th in batting and on-base percentage. Dickey earned his fourth win of the season in an eight-inning, four-hit, one-run performance against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Miami is home from a long West Coast trip and the Marlins are 15-36 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Marlins are also 8-24 in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Play the NY Mets.

Dave Cokin

Rays vs Orioles
Pick: Over

Both the Rays and Orioles have hit lefties well this season. Matt Moore has failed to live up to the hype thus far and the Tampa bullpen has been pretty bad. I have little faith in Brian Matusz for the O's. Could be a shootout at Camden, and I'll side with the Over.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Miami/ NY Mets Over 7.5: Really just one set of stats stands out to favor the Under and that the fact that in his last 4 starts vs Miami, R.A. Dickey has allowed just 1 ER. After that though the numbers point to an Over. Met home games have averaged just 6.5 rpg, but once this team gets out on the road their games have averaged 11.3 rpg. The Mets hit .281 and score 5.3 rpg away from home, while their staff has an ERA of 5.54 and have allowed teams 6.13 rpg away from home. The Marlin offense has had trouble with R.A. of late, but at home vs righties they have hit .276 and have scored 4.66 rp/9 off them, compared to hitting just .191 and scoring 3.34 rp/9 off of lefties at home. Ricky Nolasco has not had a good time vs the mets as he has a 5.03 ERA in 22 appearances (20 starts) vs them and he has an ERA of 4.35 in 2 starts in this park this year, while Dickey has a 6.23 ERA in 3 starts on the road this year. Let's also note that Met road day games have gone 4-1 OVER, while Miami home day games have gone 4-0 OVER. It'll be just my luck that R.A. will pitch a no-hitter here, but really I don't think so. The Mets hit and score really well on the road, while Miami's offense can put up some runs at home. I look for about 9 runs in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

NY YANKS -1.5 (+110) Over Seattle: Yanks Usually kill me on the RL, but we'll take a shot with them here. Just feel that the Yanjks Offense has been playing better of late and while both pitchers have struggled, they will be able to take advantage more than the M's will.

More later

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Rangers -139 over WASHINGTON

We’re going to free roll on the Caps in game 7. We have them to win the series at +339 in a wager we recommended before game six. As a result of that wager, if the Rangers win, we lose 1 unit on the series and win 1 unit on them here, therefore breaking even. Should the Caps win, we lose -1.39 units on the Blue Shirts tonight but win 3.39 units on our updated series bet for a profit of 2 units. This is a bet you should make only if you were on board with us after game six. Had we not made that bet, we’d be recommending Washington. They should’ve already won this series but instead of folding after that game-five heartbreaking loss, they came back and played its best game of the series. Braden Holtby is certainly in the Rangers' kitchen. The Rangers appear frustrated and have little confidence in beating the hot goaltender. The Caps have momentum and confidence and they’re very likely to put these regular-season overacheivers away here. The play is Washington, if you don't have anything else attached to this one. For those on board prior, our play is protecting our investment with New York. (Risking 1.39 units to win 1).

Chicago +172 over MILWAUKEE

The Cubs lost the opener last night after blowing a 4-1 lead in the sixth and a 7-5 lead in the 9th. Tough loss but they once again showed some spark and despite losing, proved how beatable this host really is. The Cubbies are taking back a big price here because Chris Volstad has some horrible surface stats. Volstad is 0-4 with a 6.55 ERA but his xERA of 4.19 suggests some bad luck and there’s proof of that too. Volstad’s 50% strand rate is the lowest strand rate of any starting pitcher with at least 20 IP. He also has a strong groundball/fly-ball profile of 49%/33%. Volstad is an undervalued pitcher right now. Shaun Marcum’s xERA of 4.15 is nearly identical to Volstad’s 4.19 xERA. Marcum is 1-1 but the Brewers have lost his last five starts and he’s just not worthy of this big a tag playing for an average club. Marcum is a fly-ball pitcher and although he’s been consistent over the years, he’s a big risk at a big price and this pitching matchup is much closer than it looks on paper. Play: Chicago +172 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco +100 over ARIZONA

Mait Cain has struck 40 while walking just seven batters in 45 innings of work. There’s added significance to that for this start because he’ll face a Diamondbacks squad that leads the majors in strikeouts with 262. Cain has allowed just 26 hits in those 45 frames for a BAA of .167 to go along with a 0.67 ERA. The real crime to all of this is that Matt Cain has just one win in six starts despite answering the bell for in the seventh inning for every one of his starts. He’s been one of the league’s best with very little to show for it. That will inevitably change and it’s likely to begin here, Trevor Cahill’s 3.26 ERA is a direct result from having success on the road. At home, Cahill has made two forgettable starts in which he’s surrendered eight runs in 11 innings for a home ERA of 6.55. Cahill has issued 15 walks while striking out just 23 in 38 innings. This pitching matchup strongly favors San Fran and it’s also worth noting that the Giants have struck out the second fewest times in the majors. Play: San Francisco +100 (Risking 2 units).

Pass NBA

JR O'Donnell

Detroit Tigers -135

The Oster Going Hard @ 8:15 PM tonight as the Detroit Tigers (16-15 & 7-6 away) visit the Oakland A's (16-16 & 7-9 home) as they bring pitcher Doug Fister off the DL for his second start. His first start was 7+ innings and he hasn't given up a run yet in two 10.2 inning total appearances. The bullpen blew the lead in his last start and lost the game and a no decision for him. On the flip side the poor hitting Oak A's send out Brandon McCarthy who is 2-3 with a 1.38 WHIP, and has the unfortunate situation of playing for the A's who only score 3.3 runs at home ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, while the Tigers score 4+ on the road.

John Ryan

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

5* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies as they host the San Diego Padres set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Charlie Manuel had a very rare team meeting Thursday in their off-day. Although the Phillies are having their struggles and their are rumors that general manager Ruben Amaro may be already shopping Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino to the American League East, Charlie is the best manager at being able to talk to his players and the the team?s collective head screwed on straight.

The Phillies responded with an inspired 7-3 win. Granted it was against one of the worst teams in baseball, but nonetheless, it was a win and they get to play this same team two more times.

The simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win the second of this three game series against the Padres. Halladay has been going through family issues of an unspecific nature and it has taken a toll on the ace. However, in his last start, he was locating his curve ball better than at any time that I can remember. His fastball is still not up to the 93-94 MPH level, but it did top out at 91 MPH late in his last start. He is one of the best starters in baseball and facing one of the weakest hitting teams in MLB.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 53-4 for 93% winners since 1997. Play against NL road dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher that throws more than 6.5 innings per start. Halladay has averaged this for many seasons and I feel strongly he will pitch a gem extending at least seven innings. Take the Phillies and lay the -200 line.

Dave Price

LA Dodgers -124

The Dodgers get the call as our free play tonight. They are an impressive 13-3 at home this season, 10-1 in their last 11 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 41-13 in their last 54 games as a favorite. The Rockies have lost 6 of their last 7 overall and 52 of their last 74 when valued as an underdog. Also, the Rockies are 1-5 in Nicasio's last 6 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog. Take the Dodgers.

Jimmy Boyd

Toronto Blue Jays -130

The Twins squeaked out a 1-run win yesterday, but it was just their 3rd victory in their last 11 games. Minnesota has been one of the best fades in baseball, even on its home field and even after a win. The Twins are 14-43 in their last 57 overall, 14-37 in their last 51 home games and 5-22 in their last 27 games following a win.

The Blue Jays have had plenty of success versus the Twins as well. They are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings, including 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Minnesota.

Besides the obvious reasons for fading Minnesota that I have already listed, I also believe the Jays have the edge on the mound with rookie Drew Hutchison, who will be making his fifth start. I'm expecting some rust from Minnesota's P.J. Walters, who will make his season debut and first major league start since 2010. Take Toronto.

Jack Jones

Boston Red Sox -127

I know Boston has been struggling of late, but as a result they are showing great value at home tonight as a small favorite over the Cleveland Indians. While the Red Sox have lost eight of their last 10, they are coming off a 7-5 victory over the Indians in Game 1 of this series.

The fact of the matter is that you will rarely get the Red Sox as this small of a home favorite against any team in the league. This is a line that would be posted if they were playing teams like the Yankees and Rangers, but not the lowly Indians.

The Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Indians are 4-10 in Josh Tomlin's last 14 starts as an underdog. Boston is 13-6 in their last 19 home meetings with Cleveland. Bet the Red Sox Saturday.