Jeff Alexander
Washington Nationals +118
The Nats are always a threat with Zimmerman on the bump. He's carrying a 2.29 ERA through 6 starts, and that number is down to 1.38 in his 2 home starts. Zimmerman also has a 2.12 ERA in 3 career starts versus Cincy. The Nationals have won 4 of their last 6 versus the Reds. Plus, they are an awesome 10-3 in their last 13 games as a road underdog. Take Washington at a nice price.
CHUCK O'BRIEN
Now, let's talk about this series-opening game, which I wouldn't be surprised to see Philly steal since I think it can win this series in six games. And it's not solely because the Sixers defeated most of the Bulls in the first-round, it's more so because they have talent and are being coached by one of the most respected veterans in the game.
Sure, coming in the Celtics are more experienced, more accomplished and have a real point guard pushing the rock and forcing an upbeat pace, but the Sixers are a younger team that defends that ball with a real passion. Collins has them playing better than anyone has given them credit for.
And if there's one thing he knows about these playoffs, it's how important Game 1 is when you're the visitor and you need to steal a game. This is the one, and with the teams coming in on a bit of short notice - they both wrapped up their quarterfinals series on Thursday - I'm thinking the younger team is the one that is at an advantage.
Philly was just four games off the pace in the Atlantic Division this past season, and for the most part showed signs of a real competitive force. Prior to their series win over top-seeded Chicago, the Sixers had lost 14 of 24, even though it did close out the regular season on a 4-1 run. But prior to that, Collins had his team contending for the Atlantic Division and looking as if it would make a run quite possibly at the Eastern Conference's top seed.
Point is, the Sixers were that good, and there no reason to believe they can't challenge for this series opener. Take the points.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
MATT RIVERS
As for your free play this Saturday, I will be looking for a very low-scoring game between the 76ers and the Celtics in Game One of their East Conference semifnal series.
It got a little ugly offensively in Philadelphia's opening round series against Chicago, as the six game set saw the first pair of games head over the total, but the last four games played saw the defensive clamps being thrown down, as EACH of the last four games played stayed under the total.
As for Boston, the Celtics just concluded a six game opening round series with the Atlanta Hawks, and the last pair and four of the six overall played held low.
Yes this is a low total, but I certainly don't feel that the teams will be "tickling the twine" too often after having just concluded such gruelingly close elimination games just 48 hours ago.
True, the last pair of season series meetings between the teams did make their way over the total, but five of the last eight overall between the teams dating back to 2010 have held under the total when these Atlantic Division rivals square off.
Game One is an under.
4♦ UNDER
CHRIS JORDAN
On the heels of two straight complimentary winners, including last night's Run Line victory with the Los Angeles Dodgers, I'm going to play the Philadelphia Phillies on the Run Line against the San Diego Padres, and I must insist you have Roy Halladay on your ticket. With run line plays, the scheduled pitchers at the time of the wager are automatically listed, so be sure Halladay is on there, and if for any reason the Padres scratch their scheduled starter, you must re-wager the game with the Phillies and Halladay as the key.
Why so important with Halladay?
Well, the ace right-hander is 3-2 this season with a respectable 3.28 ERA, and one of his losses came at the hands of the Friars, back on April 21, when the Padres got him for five hits and only two earned runs over seven innings of work.
But even more personal, the Phillies are winless in Halladay's last four starts, while he personally hasn't won since April 16 in San Francisco. He brings a lofty 5.13 ERA over his past four starts into this game, and something tells me he's going to be out to end this slump and dominate a team. The scene, quite honestly, is in place and now it's up to arguably one of the most dominating pitchers to get back on track against one of the worst teams in baseball.
My money is on Halladay to shut down the Friars, and the Phils to roll.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA -1.5
SCOTT DELANEY
As for my free winner, I look to extend my comp-pick runs of 5-0 the last five days, and 12-6 since April 25, as I side with the Washington Nationals for a second-straight night, this time taking a cheap number in Cincinnati tonight, against the Reds.
Last night I had you list both pitchers cause I liked the mismatch with Gio Gonzalez toeing the slab for the Nationals, against Mike Leake of the Reds. Tonight it doesn't matter to me if you list them or not, I'm basing on this pure momentum and how well the Nationals continue to play.
The pitching will come, let's face it, as the Nationals have been steady, consistently ranking No. 1 in the league with its stingy ERA, currently at 2.65 with their entire staff. And with their starters, they're boast a stifling 2.27 ERA, well in front of the L.A. Dodgers, whose starters have a 2.89 ERA.
If there's one thing I can say about tonight's starters, it's the fact Jordan Zimmerman has a better ERA than Cincinnati's Mat Latos, and has arguably pitched well enough to win every time he's stepped on the hill. The right-hander might be 1-3 this season, but he's never allowed more than three earned runs in a game, and only allowed more than one just one time. All five of his outings have been quality starts.
I'm taking the Nationals, and even though I'm not listing either starter, I think Zimmerman is due for a win.
4♦ WASHINGTON
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Atlanta Braves to beat the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Braves are starting Brandon Beachy, who has been outstanding this season. He has a 1.62 ERA with a WHIP of 0.949. He has given up only seven earned runs and one home run in 39 innings pitched.
The Cardinals are starting Adam Wainwright. He has been inconsistent this season. He has an ERA of 5.61, and at home it a balloons to 9.60. In his last three starts, his ERA has improved as it’s 2.70 over those starts.
So, with Wainwright, you don’t know if you are going to get good Adam or bad Adam.
Both clubs can hit the ball, so it comes down to pitching and the Braves have the edge there.
Take the Braves
2♦ BRAVES
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Chicago White Sox to beat the Kansas City Royals.
The Royals are starting Luke Hochevar, who is struggling this season. He has an ERA of 9.00 with a WHIP of 1.822. In his last three starts, his ERA balloons to 12.80 with a WHIP of 2.378.
He is just getting beat up. His last two starts, he has not made it out of the fourth inning.
On the other hand, the White Sox are starting Chris Sale, who has an ERA of 2.73 and a WHIP of 1.030. He is 3-1 in six starts and I having a decent season, going 3-1 and allowing 10 earned runs in 32 innings pitched.
Against lefty starts, the Royals are averaging only 2.5 runs a game and the team is batting only .234 against Hochevar.
The White Sox have the pitching and hitting edge. They should roll the Royals.
Take the White Sox.
2♦ WHITE SOX
JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie comes in baseball as I expect the runs to be adding up to an Over at Yankee Stadium when Hector Noesi and Phil Hughes toe the rubber in the Mariners-Yankees contest.
Noesi is the former Yankee who was shipped to the M's as part of the Michael Pineda deal, and while the righty would like to stick it up the Yankees butts, it is unlikely he will do so. In six starts this season, Noesi has only managed to put 30 innings on his resume, and has allowed 21 runs to score which translates to an ERA of 6.30.
His couterpart Phil Hughes is coming off one of his better starts this year, allowing three runs in nearly seven full frames of work against the Royals, but that effort only lowered his season ERA to 6.67. Hughes' ERA at home this season is well over seven, so there is no sense in pretending we may see a pitchers duel between these two hurlers on Saturday afternoon in the Bronx.
Look for the crooked digits to be plentiful, and for the Mariners and Yankees to head Over the total today.
3♦ OVER
The Canadian Crew
San Francisco -115
San Francisco will be looking to avenge their dismal opening stand in Phoenix this weekend when they face off against the Diamondbacks in the Valley of the Sun. The Giants are just 6-3 so far this month and are coming off an embarrassing 1-2 stand against archival the LA Dodgers. Things aren’t any better for the Diamondbacks who, as of Thursday, had lost five straight and were 7-2 on the month.
Starting the rotation for the Giants is veteran Matt Cain (1-2. 2.38)whose win/loss record isn’t really indicative of how he’s playing this season. A better indicator is the fact he struck out ten batters over six innings while giving up only two runs (both earned) against Milwaukee on Sunday.
The last time Cain faced off against Arizona was in the first week of the season. In that outing he gave up five runs (all earned), six hits and struck out four. It’s tough to read too much into a pitcher’s opening game, but for the most part he performed well. Looking at where he is today, he should do well against Arizona.
However Cain and the SF bullpen perform, they’re going to need the Giant offense to wake up if they’re hoping to walk away with a win. The Giants are 23rd in the leagues in runs scored and were outscored 16-5 in their stand in LA.
Taking the mound for Arizona is Trevor Cahill (203, 3.26 ERA). So far this season Cahill is looking fairly promising. In his last start, a 3-1 loss to the Mets, Cahill gave up only three runs in seven innings, though he only struck out two batters. Thus far, Cahill has only given up one home run this season over 38 innings. Given that the Giants have only hit one home run in their last three games, he’s got a good chance of keeping that record intact.
The Diamondback are suffering from the same sort of offensive sluggishness that’s troubling the Giants. Over the course of their current losing streak they’ve been outscored 29-13 and three of those were home games.
We like San Francisco’s chances of pulling out of their slump on top of Cain’s controlled pitching, provided the bullpen can hold onto the lead.
David Banks
Denver Nuggets +6.5
The Los Angeles Lakers (44-28, 30-42 ATS) are not a team that is used to being pushed to the brink in the opening round of the playoffs, but the Denver Nuggets (41-31, 40-32 ATS) have done just that thanks to a blowout home win in Game 6. The Lakers have advanced to the second round every year since 2007 while never facing a possible elimination game in the first round, but they are facing one now as Game 7 of this series will take place on Saturday night from the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:30 ET, and it will be televised on TNT.
Thus, Los Angeles gets a second and last chance to wrap up this series at home, something that it failed to do in Game 5 in a 102-99 loss as a six-point favorite where the Lakers were extremely lackadaisical until the last 4:00 or so. That was the game preceded by Andrew Bynum's already infamous statement about close-out games being easy, a quote that the Nuggets no doubt had plastered all over their bulletin board. The Lakers were then embarrassed 113-96 in Game 6 on Thursday, as a physically ill Kobe Bryant was still their only starter to show up. Bryant was sick to his stomach and was forced to take intravenous fluids all day long, but he did score 31 points. This time it was Bryant's fellow stars that let Los Angeles down as the bench did do its part, contributing a total of 27 points. However, the aforementioned Bynum shot just 4-for-11 for 11 points and Pau Gasol just may have had the worst playoff game of his life, going 1-for-10 and finishing with three measly points. At least the Lakers are home for this deciding game, so let's see if they can finally get a complete game from all of their contributors. This is a spot where they can get away without a deep bench, as the starters can play as long as need be with the teams now back at sea level.
The Nuggets sure enjoyed the meetings in Denver though, as for the second time in this series, the Nuggets ran the Lakers out of the building early. Unlike Game 3 however, when the Lakers actually came back to make things interesting before Denver pulled away again late, LA showed no resistance this time around, seemingly resigned to this fate of hosting a Game 7 early on. So how ironic would it be if the Nuggets do the closing out given Bynum's earlier comments? All trash talk aside, one would think that the Lakers still have the advantage as they are 28-8 straight up in this building in 2012, and it is almost a given that they will come out much more energized than the last two games. Still, give Denver credit as they refused to back down here in Game 5 and they executed their game plan of wearing down the Laker starters in Game 6 in the altitude perfectly. Now, both teams can get to experience just how "easy" close-out games are!
Denver has actually gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games of this series as it got a gift cover in Game 2 here at Staples, losing 104-100 as a 5 point dog where the last bucket to account for the final score was the closest the Nuggets got all game. Also, the 'under' is still 22-8 in the last 30 head-to-head meetings despite the last two games going 'over' the total.
Harry Bondi
Pittsburgh Pirates -135
The Astros have been playing better but tonight send J.A. Happ to the hill in Pittsburgh, a place he has never won in four career starts against the Pirates. Happ is also coming off his worst start of the year giving up six runs in five innings in Houston's 8-1 loss to St. Louis last Sunday. Houston is also just 5-11 on the road and we don't see them winning back to back games in Pittsburgh. There is rare value with the Pirates tonight. Take Pittsburgh over Houston.
MLBPredictions
Mariners / Yankees Over 10
New York took the first game of this series last night by a score of 6-2. The Yankees have now won 5 of their last 7 games to improve to 18-14 on the season and 10-7 at home. The Mariners fell to 15-19 on the year and 8-11 on the road with last night's loss. Tonight the Mariners send ex-Yankee Hector Noesi to the mound for his 7th start of the season. Noesi is 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .254 opponents batting average. He has worked 30 innings allowing 29 hits and 21 earned runs. In his three road starts he has allowed 14 earned runs over 13.2 innings of work. The Yankees will counter with Phil Hughes who might be trying to keep his job in the rotation. Hughes is 2-4 on the season with a 6.67 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .283 opponents batting average. He has worked 28.1 innings allowing 34 hits and 21 earned runs. His only good start at home came against the last place Minnesota Twins. Last season Hughes was 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .283 opponents batting average. The Yankees had 14 hits last night, including a 4 for 4 night by Robinson Cano (who is 12 for 20 in his last 5 games). They are scoring just under 5 runs per game on the season, and I don't see them having much troubles at least getting to that number tonight. While scoring 4.94 runs per game the Yankees are also giving up 4.41 runs against. The Mariners are scoring 3.95 runs per game on the road, and giving up 4.42 against. Note that the OVER is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 road games vs a team with a winning record. The OVER is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games vs a team with a losing record. The OVER is also 20-8 in Hughes' last 28 home starts, and 4-1-1 in his last 6 starts as a big favorite of -151 to -200. The OVER is 8-3-1 in these two teams last 12 meetings overall and 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in New York. Two struggling pitchers in Yankee Stadium is always worth a look at the OVER, and with the Yankees bats hot right now I think we have value even with a total set at 10 runs. Take the OVER.
Hollywood Sports
Giants / Diamondbacks Over
Arizona (15-18) has played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when that number was installed in the 7-8.5 range. With the Diamondbacks sending out Trevor Cahill to face the Giants' Matt Cain, the Total is set at 8 for this contest -- and the Over looks like a nice play tonight. Cahill is 203 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. But while the right-hander has a strong 1.95 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP and .183 opponent's batting average when on the road this year, he has struggled in his first season in Arizona with a 6.55 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and .295 opponent's batting average when at home. Furthermore, while San Francisco won the first game of this series last night by a 5-1 score, the Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. San Francisco has played 13 of their last 19 road games Over the Total as a favorite. The Giants have also played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Cain is having another good season with his 1-2 record along with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. But while the right-hander sports a 1.09 ERA, 0.55 WHIP and .138 opponent's batting average at home, he has seen these numbers rise to a 5.84 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .234 opponent's batting average when on the road. Furthermore, San Fran has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when Cain was on the mound against the Diamondbacks. Lastly, there is a deeper sabermetric for both starting pitchers here that projects that they will not be as effective in the future as they have been so far this season. "GB BABIP" stands for this: (Opponent) Batting Average for (ground) Balls put Into Play. The assumption behind the application of this sabermetric is that while pitchers control their strikeouts, walks and HRs allowed, it is defense and luck (and, we argue that it is the skill of the batter when it comes to producing their line-drives) that control what happens to the balls that hitters put into play. We look specifically at ground-ball BABIPs because defense and luck play the predominant role in which balls get through the infield. By comparing a pitcher's specific GB BABIP to his team's overall GB BABIP, we seek to neutralize the quality of the defense to identify (luck) discrepancies that deviate from the expected norm. This luck dynamic helps us to predict future pitching performances. Over the long run, pitchers with low GB BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high GB BABIPs should see this number lower. Cain has enjoyed a low .158 GB BABIP so far this season as compared to the Giants' defensive GB BABIP of .247. Similarly, Cahill currently has a GB BABIP of .188 which is much lower than Arizona's defensive GB BABIP of .223. Both of these low numbers are unsustainable -- and when these numbers regress back up to their team's means, they both will be serving up more base hits. Given the deeper metrics for starting pitchers that are complemented by some significant team trends for both teams, take the Over in this one while listing both starting pitchers Matt Cain and Trevor Cahill.
NHL Predictions
Washington Capitals +133
I highly recommend you shop around for a line at +130 or better, because I've seen some sportsbooks offering as low as +120 on the Capitals tonight. Tonight's Game 7 will end a fantastic series, where we have see only one game not decided by a single goal (that was Game 1 where the Rangers won 3-1). No team has won two games in a row, with each team going 2-1 at home so far in the series. In Game 5 the Capitals looked like they were going to head home with a chance to close out the series, but a double minor high sticking penalty allowed the Rangers to tie it up with about 6 seconds left, and then score a powerplay goal in the first two minutes of the first OT. Both Braden Holtby and Henrik Lundqvist have been stellar, and have both given their teams the opportunities to win every game in this series. LIke this entire series has been this game is pretty much a toss up, where I am sure it will be a tight and probably 1-goal game either way. Getting the Capitals at +133 provides us with some value, as at best the Caps should be priced slightly better than a pick'em. Take the Capitals at +130 or better as we see Washington move on to the Eastern Conference finals.
Sammy P
Kansas City vs Chicago
Play: Over 8.5
Luke Hochevar takes the mound again tonight trying to shake off his early season woes. Hochevar has really struggled in the 2012 campaign during his six starts he has only pitched a total of 28 innings being yanked early and often. He really puts pressure on that Kansas City bullpen not being able to hit the 100-pitch mark or completing the 7th inning once this season. His bloated 9.00 ERA and 1.82 WHIP are not the kind of numbers that will keep him in the starting rotation for very long. "Right now, Hoch is in a rut, and he’s having trouble getting out of it," manager Ned Yost said. "He’s struggling with his command...his stuff is good, but he gets to a point where he starts fighting his location and balls are hitting the fat part of the plate." On the other side of the equation we find some weird goings on with the White Sox and Chris Sale. Sale was a viable option out of the bullpen last year and transition well into the starting rotation in the early going. But his elbow flared up, he missed a start, and the White Sox proclaimed he was going to get well and then serve as the team’s closer. Now it comes out that a recent MRI was clear and he’s mysteriously back into the rotation. If healthy, Sale has plenty of upside, but asking him to be sharp considering all that has happened over the last week (see: last start on May 1, MRI on May 3, blown save on May 8, scheduled start May 11) is asking a bit much. Play this one over.
Rob Veno
Cleveland at Boston
Play: Boston
The currently flammable Red Sox are drawing a lot of negative attention but this particular spot seems to set up well. Cleveland has had problems all season long with left handed pitching as evidenced by the fact that SS Asdrubel Cabrera is their only hitter with a batting average above .300 against southpaws this season. As a team, the Tribe is hitting a paltry .222 in 433 at bats vs. left handers. Boston’s starter Felix Doubront has not been in good form his last couple of games but he did have a pair of quality starts prior to that going 12 innings with a 1.25 WHIP and 3.00 ERA. The main obstacle for Doubront has been pitches per inning where he’s averaging a taxing 18.9 per due mainly to the fact that he is a strikeout style pitcher (32 Ks in 32.1 IP). He’s also been solid at keeping the ball in the yard allowing just 3 home runs. Indians starter Josh Tomlin has had a nice start to the season where WHIP is concerned at 1.19, but his list of opposing lineups is rather weak. Three times thus far he’s faced the light hitting Chicago White Sox, he’s faced the even weaker hitting Seattle Mariners once and he was hit hard by Kansas City in his other start. None of those compare to what he’ll face in lineup and venue here this evening as the Red Sox own a .278 home batting average to go along with an .810 Fenway Park OPS. Sox bullpen is always a concern but in this case, so too is Cleveland’s which doesn’t have any trust worthy middle relief for this contest after burning LH Tony Sipp (41 pitches) and RH Dan Wheeler (37 pitches) last night. Expect Boston to change the scoreboard early and often here allowing them to lead the entire way and negate the back end of the Indians bullpen. Home team comes ready to build off last night’s win and look for them to get the job done.