Joe D'Amico
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
The Phillies have scored 53 runs in their L10 games, including a 7-3 spanking over the Padres yesterday. San Diego got fanned 14 times in that contest and now must face the two-time Cy young winner, Roy Halladay. Halladay is 3-2 on the season, including an 0-1 mark vs. SD, but the ace pitched well in that game, only yielding 2 runs on five hits in seven innings. I expect the RH to come out today with a vengeance and thump the 29th ranked , 3.18 RPG averaging Padre lineup. San Diego has no offense. They rank 29th or worse in a slew of categories and boast the NL's worst record at 11-22 (including a 2-8 away mark). They send Edinson Volquez to the bump. The RH is 1-2 this season and has a 2-2 lifetime record vs. Philly in his career. The Padres are 16-40 their L56 overall vs. the Phillies and 0-4 their L4 games vs. the NL East. The Phillies are 8-1 in Hallday's starts vs. teams with a losing record and 48-21 their L69 vs. the NL West. Take Philadelphia on the RUN LINE.
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles Angels at Texas
Pick: Texas -150
I see this line as the oddsmakers posting on what the Angels should be not what they are. It took Texas all of one inning last night to put the Halos away as they hung a 6 on them in the first frame, on their way to a rout. Albert Pujols isn't breaking out, he is falling and now is at a May low of .192. The Angels are simply going nowhere while he figures things out. They are just 3-9 on the road in their last 12 and 4-11 in their last 15 vs. a winning team. The Rangers own a 12-2 mark in Harrison's last 14 starts vs. a losing team. Play on Texas.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Texas Rangers -125
5-0, 6'7" fireballer Jared Weaver comes to Texas on national TV making his second start following his no-hitter against the Twins on May 2nd. Texas is responding with converted reliever Neftali Feliz making his 5th career start and 5th of the season. Feliz is coming off 32 & 40 save seasons, but after acquiring closer Joe Nathan, the 23 year old is far more valuable long term as a starter. The transition has been a slow process throughout spring training, but now that he is getting into a starting routine he has put up impressive numbers, including 8 K's over six innings in a 10-3 W over Baltimore.
Aside from Weaver's "No-No", to say the Angels have been disappointing this season is an understatement. Free agent Albert Pujols has been a dud with as the former triple crown contender has only one homer and 11 RBI this season along with a .192 average has completely fallen short of all expectations. The Angels have not exactly been helping him out either, hitting .220 as a team on the road this season.
We will back the #1 Texas squad, who have been tearing the cover off the ball, hitting .338 in their last five and .294 in their last ten. After posting quality outings by Weaver we are expecting him to have his hands full with the Texas linup in his own park. Take the Rangers.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Boston Over 170: The Sixers played some very low scoring games vs the Bulls, but let's take a closer look at that. In the last 4 games of the series vs the Bulls the highest point total put up was 171 points, while the first two games of the series put up 194 and 201 points. The difference between the first two and the last 4 was that the Bulls were healthy for the first two, but were missing Rose for the last 4 and Noah for the last 3. Pierce and Allen as not at 100% for Boston here, but they will play and Boston showed in desire to run a bit more in the latter part of the Atlanta series. Philly's road games have averaged 186.8 ppg, while Boston home games have averaged 176.2 ppg. Both teams play excellent defense, but I feel the offenses will have a better than expected showing in a game that should put up at least 175 points.
1 UNIT PLAY
Lakers/ Denver Under 195: The Lakers have lost the last 2 in this series and it has mostly been due to a Defense that has allowed 113 and 102 points in the 2 games, so you can expect them to look for more of a defensive minded gameplan in this one. The Lakers also get Metta World Peace back which should help a whole lot on the defensive end. The Lakers allowed Denver 102 points here in Game 5, but they still allow just 93.1 ppg at home, while their home games have averaged just 192 ppg on the year. Denver plays higher scoring games, but this is game 7 and i expect both teams to come out a bit tight, while the end of the game should be close and that should have both teams walking the ball up and looking for that perfect shot. This one should be played in the 180's.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
CINCINNATI -128 over Washington: (Added) Jordan Zimmerman has pitched well for the Nats this year, as he has a 2.29 ERA overall, but with a 1-3 record, thanks to poor run support. Zimmerman does come in struggling with an 0-2 mark and a 4.37 ERa in his last 2 starts (both at home). He is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Reds, but in his lone start here he had a no decision, allowing 3 ER on 6 hits in just 4.1 innings of work. Mat Latos is pitching very well right now, as he is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his last 3 starts. In those three starts he did struggle with a good Houston offense, but allowed 0 ER in his starts vs San Fran and Pitt, which are two teams that struggle on offense just like the Nats do. Washington hits just .222 and scores 3.6 rpg on the road and they may not have Bryce Harper at 100% for this one, plus having no Werth will hurt the offense as well. Mat Latos is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 5 career starts vs the Nats and behind another solid outing from him the Reds should bounce back with a good win here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2005 the Reds are 20-0 when their line is with in 25 cents of a PK and they are off a loss in which they had 10 or fewer hits and their hitters left at least a combined 18 men on base.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ NY Mets Over 7.5: Really just one set of stats stands out to favor the Under and that the fact that in his last 4 starts vs Miami, R.A. Dickey has allowed just 1 ER. After that though the numbers point to an Over. Met home games have averaged just 6.5 rpg, but once this team gets out on the road their games have averaged 11.3 rpg. The Mets hit .281 and score 5.3 rpg away from home, while their staff has an ERA of 5.54 and have allowed teams 6.13 rpg away from home. The Marlin offense has had trouble with R.A. of late, but at home vs righties they have hit .276 and have scored 4.66 rp/9 off them, compared to hitting just .191 and scoring 3.34 rp/9 off of lefties at home. Ricky Nolasco has not had a good time vs the mets as he has a 5.03 ERA in 22 appearances (20 starts) vs them and he has an ERA of 4.35 in 2 starts in this park this year, while Dickey has a 6.23 ERA in 3 starts on the road this year. Let's also note that Met road day games have gone 4-1 OVER, while Miami home day games have gone 4-0 OVER. It'll be just my luck that R.A. will pitch a no-hitter here, but really I don't think so. The Mets hit and score really well on the road, while Miami's offense can put up some runs at home. I look for about 9 runs in this one.
LA Dodgers/ Colorado Over 7.5: (Added) I know this is a west coast game in a big park, but there are times this year when you will get great value in playing an OVER in a dodger home game and this is one of those spots. Juan Nicasio has pitched very good for the Rockies on the road this year, as he has allowed just 2 ER in his 2 road starts, but one of those starts were vs a bad Pittsburgh offense and the other was very early in the year vs a Houston team that hadn't figured out how good their offense was. Juan did allow just 2 ER in his lone start vs the Dodgers this year, but in 3 career starts vs the he has a 5.71 ERA, while in his lone start here (last year) he allowed 5 ER on 6 hits and 2 walks in just 5.2 innings of work. Aaron Harang has not had a great start , with a 5.24 ERA in his 6 starts, including a 5.11 ERA in his 2 starts here. He also has an 8.64 in his last 4 starts vs the Rockies, while Current Rockie plays have hit .292 with 14 extra base hits in 96 AB's. The Rockies struggle to score away from home, but should do damage vs Harang today, while the Dodgers have put up 4.6 rpg at home and should hit at least 4 or 5 runs off Nicasio here. i'm expecting DD in runs here. KEY TRENDS--- The OVER is 21-8 the last 29 in the series and 17-4-2 in Colorado's last 23 during game 2 of a series.
2 UNIT PLAY
ST LOUIS -127 over Atlanta: (Added) Adam Wainright seems to be getting his act together and should have a good showing vs the Braves tonight. The Braves took game 1 in Extras last night, but I expect the Cards to bounce back behind their Ace tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
NY YANKS -1.5 (+110) Over Seattle: Yanks Usually kill me on the RL, but we'll take a shot with them here. Just feel that the Yanjks Offense has been playing better of late and while both pitchers have struggled, they will be able to take advantage more than the M's will.