SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (4-1 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
The Cavaliers, the top overall seed in the playoffs, resume their quest for LeBron James’ first championship when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics in Game 1 of the conference semifinals at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland beat the eighth-seeded Bulls in five games in the first round, but after winning and covering in Game 1, the Cavs went just 1-3 ATS the rest of the series. They finished off Chicago on Tuesday with a 96-94 victory, but fell way short as a 12½-point home favorite. One game after notching a triple-double, James had a double-double of 19 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists in the clincher. However, he fell well below his playoff average of 31.8 ppg, and he’s dealing with a right elbow injury that forced him to shoot a left-handed free throw (which he missed) in the closing seconds of the Game 5 win.
Antawn Jamison led Cleveland with 25 points in Tuesday’s victory, going 8 of 14 from the floor, including 3 of 7 from three-point range. The Cavs shot a solid 49.1 percent in the series and limited the Bulls to 43.9 percent.
Boston also advanced in five games and has been off since Tuesday, when it dropped Miami 96-86 as a seven-point home chalk. Sharpshooter Ray Allen led the Celtics with 24 points in the deciding game, knocking down 5 of 6 from long distance in the process. Paul Pierce added 21 points, and Rajon Rondo had 16 points and a dozen assists. Doc Rivers’ troops shot 47.4 percent in the first round, while holding Miami to 43.5 percent.
Boston is 27-16 on the highway (22-20-1 ATS) this year – including 1-1 SU and ATS in Miami – putting up 98.0 ppg on 47.7 percent shooting and allowing 94.4 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting. Cleveland is 38-6 SU at home this year, including taking all three home contests against Chicago. However, the Cavs are just 18-26 ATS at the Q, outscoring visitors by an average of about nine ppg (103.1-94.3), while outshooting visitors by a 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent margin.
In the last meeting between these rivals, Boston nearly squandered a 22-point lead, holding on to win a 117-113 shootout as a 1½-point home pup on April 4, overcoming a 42-point effort from James, who reached that number despite going 0-for-9 from beyond the arc. Despite the win and cover, the Celtics are still 4-10 ATS in their last 14 clashes with the Cleveland. In fact, the Cavs are 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS roll in the last seven meetings at the Q.
These teams split four meetings this year, with the SU winner cashing each time, and each squad netted a home win and a road win. The host (and favorite) are 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups. Boston and Cleveland also met in the second round of the playoffs two years ago, with the C’s taking the series in seven games on their way to the title, but the Cavs went 6-1 ATS, covering the last five games.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 4-11 overall (2-6 last eight), 0-6 against winning teams, 1-7 after a SU win, 6-14 following a non-cover and 3-9 as a favorite. However, they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 17-5-1 in second-round playoff games, 17-7-1 as a playoff chalk and 11-5 after three or more days’ rest.
Along with their 4-1 ATS run in the first round, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 5-1 on Saturday, 9-3-1 as a postseason pup, 14-6 catching five to 10½ points and 23-10 as a road ‘dog of that same price. That said, Boston shoulders negative ATS trends of 1-5 after a break of three or more days, 2-7 after a SU win, 4-13 in second-round contests and 6-16-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The under is 17-5 in Cleveland’s last 22 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on a bundle of “over” surges, including 10-1 against Atlantic Division foes, 7-2 as a playoff favorite, 5-0 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points and 4-1 after a SU win. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 10-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1 against the Central Division, 6-1 as a pup, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win and 5-2 as a playoff ‘dog, though the under has been the play in the Celts’ last four second-round games.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total cleared the posted price in all four meetings this season and is 5-1 in the last six contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (14-9) at Philadelphia (12-10)
Roy Halladay (4-1, 1.80 ERA) tries to bounce back from his first loss of the season when he leads the Phillies against Mike Pelfrey (4-0, 0.69) and the streaking Mets as these N.L. East rivals continue their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
New York took a seven-game winning streak into Friday’s series opener and pounded the Phillies 9-1 to take over sole possession of first place in the N.L. East. Not only have the Mets won eight in a row, but they’re 10-1 in their last 11 games, outscoring the opposition 54-15 in the 10 wins. Jerry Manuel’s club is on additional surges of 7-0 against right-handed starters and 5-2 on Saturday, but they’re still in slumps of 17-38 on the road, 16-38 against N.L. East rivals and 7-16 in their last 22 versus winning teams.
Since starting the season 8-2, the Phillies have lost eight of 12, including three straight at home, and they’re 2-8 in their last 10 on Saturday. On the bright side, Philadelphia went 12-6 against the Mets last year, and despite Friday’s result, the Phils are still 11-3 in the last 14 meetings, including 6-2 in the last eight at Citizens Bank.
Pelfrey gave up two runs on four hits in six innings in his season debut on April 9, beating the Nationals 8-2 at home. But since the second inning of that contest, he’s pitched 24 scoreless innings in four appearances (three starts), yielding a total of 14 hits and nine walks while striking out 15. New York posted shutouts in all three starts, beating the Rockies 5-0 (road), the Cubs 4-0 (home) and the Braves 1-0 (home).
Despite Pelfrey’s recent success overall, the Mets are still just 2-6 in his last eight outings on the highway, and last year he went 4-7 with a 6.72 ERA in 14 road contests. However, New York won four of Pelfrey’s five starts against the Phillies last year, and Pelfrey is 4-2 with a 4.82 ERA in nine career starts against Philadelphia, but 1-1 with a 7.17 ERA in four games at Citizens Bank. In fact, the Phillies at home are batting .341 against Pelfrey. In two starts last year in Philadelphia, Pelfrey gave up 11 runs and 18 hits in 11 1/3 innings, but the Mets won both games (7-4 and 10-9).
After four straight gems to begin his Phillies career, Halladay finally got touched up Monday in San Francisco, giving up five runs on 10 hits in seven innings of a 5-1 loss. That ended a string of eight straight quality starts for Halladay, who gave up two runs or less in seven of those games and registered four complete games. The veteran right-hander still has six complete games in his last 11 outings, allowing a total of 16 earned runs in 89 innings (1.61 ERA).
Four of Halladay’s first five starts have come on the road, with his lone game at Citizens Park resulting in an 8-6 win over the Marlins (two runs allowed in eight innings). Halladay is a mediocre 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA in four career starts against the Mets (all in interleague play when he was with Toronto).
The Mets are on “under” runs of 10-4-1 overall, 6-0 against N.L. East foes, 4-0 on Saturday, 5-1 overall behind Pelfrey and 4-1-1 when Pelfrey works on Saturday. The under is also 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six divisional games and 4-0 in its last four in the second game of a series. On the flip side, though, the Phillies carry lengthy “over” streaks of 34-16-2 overall, 10-3-1 at home, 23-10-2 versus right-handed starters and 6-1-1 at home against righties.
Finally, these teams barely stayed under the 10½-run total Friday, making the under 11-2 in the last 13 series meetings overall, including 7-1 in the last eight in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (12-12) at Detroit (14-10)
Two veteran pitchers off to slow starts hope to get back on track at Comerica Park, where the Tigers and Jeremy Bonderman (1-1, 6.97 ERA) match up against the Angels and southpaw Scott Kazmir (2-1, 7.20) in the middle game of a weekend series.
Detroit stretched its winning streak to three in a row with Friday’s 10-6 rout of Los Angeles, scoring eight runs in the fourth inning to erase a 4-2 deficit. The Tigers are on positive runs of 7-3 at home this year, 9-4 in their last 13 against lefty starters and 21-7 in their last 28 at home versus southpaws.
Los Angeles has followed up a five-game winning streak by going 4-5 in its last nine games. Still, Mike Scioscia’s squad is on surges of 7-3 versus winning teams, 13-6 on Saturday and 7-3 with Kazmir starting.
These teams split a four-game set in Anaheim earlier this month, with Los Angeles taking the first two contests (2-0 and 6-5) and Detroit posting one-run wins in the last two (4-3 and 5-4). Even though the Tigers have won the last three in a row, the Angels remain on a 49-24 overall run against the Tigers.
Kazmir faced the Tigers on April 20 at home and gave up two runs on six hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in 5 2/3 innings, picking up a 6-5 win. He followed that with Sunday’s 8-4 home victory over the Yankees, though he survived just 5 1/3 innings after surrendering four runs on three hits and four walks. The veteran southpaw has not made it out of the sixth inning in four straight starts going back to last year’s playoffs, and he’s gone six straight starts without a quality outing (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or less allowed).
Kazmir’s first start of 2010 came on the road, and he got pounded at Yankee Stadium (six runs allowed – including three home runs – in four innings of a 6-2 loss). He’s made five career starts at Comerica Park, going 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA, part of an overall 3-4 mark with a 4.50 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus Detroit.
Bonderman’s longest outing of the season came at Angel Stadium on April 21, when he yielded just three runs on three hits in six innings, getting a no-decision as Detroit pulled out a 4-3 victory. The right-hander followed that with another no-decision Sunday in Texas, yielding four runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings, with Detroit prevailing 8-6. Bonderman’s one victory came in his only home start to date, as he held the Indians to a run on one hit in five innings of a 4-2 win on April 10.
With last month’s performance in L.A., Bonderman is now 3-3 with a 4.66 ERA in 11 career starts against the Angels, giving up three earned runs or fewer and pitching at least six innings in seven of the last nine.
The Halos sport “under” streaks of 20-7 on the road, 14-5-1 versus the A.L. Central, 19-7-1 in the second game of a series, 13-4 against right-handed starters on the road, 5-0 on Saturday and 4-1 with Kazmir pitching on the road. However, the over is 4-1 in Kazmir’s past five starts overall, while Detroit is on “over” surges of 6-2-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-0-1 versus the A.L. West and 12-3-2 when Bonderman faces A.L. West squads. That said, the under is 13-6-2 in Bonderman’s last 21 starts overall.
Finally, the under is 6-3-1 the last nine times the Angels have visited Motown, though Friday’s slugfest easily cleared the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
DUNKEL INDEX
Boston at Cleveland
The Celtics look to take advantage of a Cleveland team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite. The Celtics are the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+7 1/2)
Game 701-702: Boston at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 121.766; Cleveland 125.985
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 4; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 7 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+7 1/2); Over
MLB
LA Angels at Detroit
The Angels look to bound back from yesterday's loss and build on their 5-1 record in Scott Kazmir's last 6 starts as a favorite from -110 to -150. LA is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110)
Game 901-902: Arizona at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 16.421; Cubs (Silva) 15.251
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); N/A
Game 903-904: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.701; St. Louis (Lohse) 16.674
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Over
Game 905-906: Houston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 13.754; Atlanta (Hudson) 14.751
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 907-908: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.512; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.306
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-210); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+190); Under
Game 909-910: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Rogers) 15.266; San Francisco (Cain) 16.034
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Under
Game 911-912: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 15.179; Florida (Volstad) 15.617
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-170); Under
Game 913-914: Milwaukee at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.344; San Diego (Latos) 15.493
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Under
Game 915-916: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.345; LA Dodgers (Monasterios) 12.947
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+160); Over
Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 16.059; NY Yankees (Vazquez) 15.261
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+140); Over
Game 919-920: Oakland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.234; Toronto (Eveland) 15.364
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-130); Over
Game 921-922: LA Angels at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 16.089; Detroit (Bonderman) 15.526
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Under
Game 923-924: Texas at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 15.078; Seattle (Hernandez) 16.079
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-240); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-240); Under
Game 925-926: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 16.534; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.227
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+220); Under
Game 927-928: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 14.630; Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.075
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Under
Game 929-930: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Manship) 16.112; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.563
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Over
NHL
Philadelphia at Boston
The Flyers look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 0-4 in its last 4 games when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Philadelphia is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+130)
Game 51-52: Vancouver at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 13.026; Chicago 12.525
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+130); Over
Game 57-58: Philadelphia at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.883; Boston 12.165
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+130); Under
Marc Lawrence
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks meet the Cubs in Game Two of this weekend series when Dan Haren opposes Carlos Silva in Chicago this afternoon. Aside from Haren being in commanding KW form this season with 8 walks against 28 strikeouts in his five outings, we note that Silva struggles in the month of May, going 4-14 in his last 18 team starts and 4-10 at home in May throughout his career. With that we're back the D'Backs here today.
Steve Merril
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Oakland Athletics
The Athletics look to bounce back after losing the first two of their series in Toronto with the Jays. Gio Gonzalez takes the mound where he's 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA. Gonzalez is coming off his best outing of the season shutting out the Indians for seven innings. The lefty last faced the Jays in 2008 when he gave up four runs and four hits in six innings. He's matured greatly since then. In limited at-bats, John Buck (0-3), John McDonald (0-2), Jose Molina (0-2) and Lyle Overbay (0-1) all are hitless against Gonzalez. Toronto is 1-4 against left handed pitchers hitting just .155 against them. In those games they are averaging 1.4 runs per game. Toronto is also 3-5 in the day time hitting .197 in those eight games. Dana Eveland will be facing his former team coming off his worst outing of the season. Eveland got torched by Boston giving up seven runs and eight hits in three innings. The lefty will face an Oakland lineup that is 4-3 against southpaws and 6-2 in the daytime. Only Gabe Gross has faced Eveland going 1 for 3 against him. Oakland is hitting .277 over their past seven games. Look for Gio Gonzalez to hold down a Blue Jays’ lineup that struggles to hit lefties.
Rob Vinciletti
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers look to rebound off a pair of losses to the Padres with perhaps their best pitcher tonight. Y.Gallardo makes the start tonight and he has a solid 1.68 road era and has bee dominant in his last 3 starts with a 1.06 era. Tonight he opposes Mr. Latos for the Padres. Latos has struggled of late with a 6.25 era. The Brewers were hitting over .300 on the road heading into Friday and should get game 3 of this series here tonight.
DAVID CHAN
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
Indications here show a number very close to pick’em, and that’s something that’s tough to be believed. Carlos Silva has looked very good this year, after missing 4.5 months last year with a rotator cuff complaint. His numbers are stellar, but there are a few telltale signs he won’t keep it up: he only has 15 punchouts in 26 IP. When you pair that with a 0.97 ground-to-fly ratio, it starts to get a little scary. Lastly, Silva has posted his 1.73 ERA against the Reds, Astros, Mets, and Nationals. Most of these teams can hit a little bit, but until he faces a top offense, his success is suspect.
Dan Haren has struggled by his standards, but has two quality starts in his last three outings—games against the Dodgers and Rockies. The Cubs aren’t a huge step up, and since coming back to the NL, he’s faced the Cubs twice allowing four earned runs in 16 innings, while fanning 15 and walking two.
SEAN MURPHY
Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
I cashed with the Blue Jays in their 10-2 victory on Friday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Saturday afternoon.
In my analysis of last night's play, I mentioned that the Jays have been a streaky team so far this season. They've already posted both winning and losing streaks lasting five games. They brought an end to a five-game slide with a 6-3 win in the opener of this series and of course followed that up with another lopsided victory last night. This is a fine spot to ride their winning streak once again.
The A's will send Gio Gonzalez to the mound for his fifth start of the season. He has been solid but not spectacular thus far, posting a 3.68 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. After lasting fewer than five innings in back-to-back outings, he tossed a gem last time out, allowing only five hits over seven innings of shutout ball. Of course that came against a struggling Indians lineup. He'll face a much tougher test today as the Blue Jays have once again caught fire at the plate, scoring 16 runs over their last two games.
Jays starter Dana Eveland got off to a fine start this season, allowing just four earned runs over his first three outings. However, he was rocked by the Red Sox earlier this week, giving up eight hits and seven earned runs over just three innings of work. I expect him to bounce back strong against his former team on Saturday. The A's are a weak offensive club, and have gone cold here in Toronto, plating only five runs in the first two games of this series.
The A's are just 1-8 in their last nine games in Toronto, and 3-14 in the last 17 meetings in this series. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays own a fantastic 14-3 record in their last 17 games when listed as a favorite. Look for them to pick up their third win in a row on Saturday. Take Toronto.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
While Jeremy Bonderman did have an awful outing in Seattle in his first road start of the season he has been effective in his other three starts this season as he bids to come back to being a solid member of a big league rotation after major struggles with injuries the past two seasons. Detroit is 3-1 behind Bonderman this season and in three of four starts he has kept his team in the game before giving way to baseball’s best early season bullpen. Bonderman has struck out nearly twice as many people as he has walked and his home ERA is just 1.80.
Scott Kazmir was retained by the Angels but in three starts so far this season he has not delivered much reason for optimism. Kazmir did beat the Tigers earlier this season but it was a 6-5 game that could have gone either way. In that start Kazmir did not walk a batter and did not allow a home run, but in his other two starts he has walked seven and allowed five long balls. Kazmir has had to face the Yankees twice so his numbers could improve down the line but he has not shown that he is worthy of road favoritism in this match-up. Detroit has been one of the better hitting teams against left-handed pitching this season and the Angels have also featured a very mediocre bullpen on the year.
Detroit is 6-3 at home this season and the Angels are making just the second road trip of the season following a long home stand. These teams split four games in Anaheim earlier this season but the Tigers actually out-scored the Angels in the series, falling victim to two one-run losses. The Angels are generally thought-of as a high-scoring team but Los Angeles has barely averaged four runs scored per game this season. The Tigers are close to five runs scored per game this season through a tough early season schedule, and the average is above five runs per game in the last ten games. The Tigers have scored at least four runs in eight of the last ten games and with a lot of momentum after a big series win against Minnesota the Tigers will be tough to beat in this match-up.
Jim Feist
Pirates vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 8½
Pittsburgh has a terrible offense, ranked second to last in the NL in runs scored. And they come into Dodger stadium, the best pitcher's park in the NL. This is the 9th straight road game for the Pirates. Starter Zach Duke is better than his numbers suggest, as last season he had a 1.69 ERA against the Dodgers in 16 innings. LA goes with Carlos Monasterios, who has a 1.69 ERA and the Pirates haven't seen much of him. All in all, look for fewer runs than oddsmakers expect. Play the Pirates/Dodgers Under the total.
James Patrick Sports
Twins vs. Indians
MGR Manny Acta hands the ball to Justin Masterson on Saturday Night in Big League Baseball action and with the Twins winners in (5) of the past (6) meetings with the Tribe and a perfect (6-0) in Saturday action we'll look for Masterson to drop his (1-8) record versus American League Central opponents further in the hole. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday Major League Baseball selection is Minnesota Twins.
EZWINNERS
Atlanta Braves -170
The Astros starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez pitched well in two of his first three starts this season, but got little or no run support in each of those games. Wandy's ERA now sits at a decent 3.65, but if he allows that many runs he will most likely take the loss in this game against the Braves and Tim Hudson. Hudson has pitched pretty well this season and has been very tough on the Astros in the past. In four career games against Houston, Hudson is 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA. Not exactly what the struggling Astros hitters want to see right now. Wandy was originally scheduled to pitch on Friday, but he swapped spots in the rotation with Brett Myers due to back spasms. We'll see if that becomes a factor here as well. Atlanta has really been playing some bad baseball as of late, but Houston coming to town is usually the cure all for a struggling team. Play on Atlanta.
Craig Trapp
Mets vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8
The two aces of the staff's on two teams that really know each other. Pelphrey won't have to face a Phills team that is hot either so he should have extra advantage. Halladay had a rough outing last game out but today he will be back to his dominating form. Look for a 2-1 type game as these rivals seem to always play close low scoring games.
Bobby Maxwell
Colorado at SAN FRANCISCO (-145)
I'm on an 86-70-3 FREE play run and tonight I'm coming with a comp winner on the Giants as they will take care of the Rockies today in San Francisco.
I’m going with the Giants at home in this one as Matt Cain has been delivering solid outings this season and has nothing to show for it. That’s going to change today against the Rockies.
Cain is 0-1 with a 3.80 ERA in his four starts and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of the four games. He had some good success against the Rockies last season as the Giants won three of the five times he faced them and twice he held them to one run or less.
On Sunday, Cain held the Cardinals to two runs on six hits but got no support as the Giants fell 2-0. Tonight, they will get him some offense.
Colorado sends Esmil Rogers to the hill for just his second career start. His only other start came last September when he allowed two runs on three hits in four innings of a 3-2 loss to the Padres. So far this season, he’s pitched four relief innings and allowed one run on two hits.
The Giants have been playing well at home, going 13-4 in their last 17 in front of the home fans, and they are 7-1 in their last eight at home against the Rockies and 6-1 in the last six overall. San Francisco is also on streaks of 13-5 as a favorite and 11-4 when Cain starts as a home chalk.
Colorado is just 1-6 in its last seven as a road ‘dog and 0-6 when they are ‘dogs anywhere.
I’m going to go with the Giants and Cain today as they continue to add to the Rockies’ road woes. Play San Francisco.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Chuck O'Brien
Milwaukee (-125) at SAN DIEGO
I’ve hit seven out of my last 11 free play, and Saturday’s complimentary selection comes from baseball, as I’ll play the Brewers on the road in San Diego.
All about Milwaukee ace Yovani Gallardo here. Since two rough starts to begin the season (10 runs, nine earned, in 12 innings in losses to the Rockies and Cardinals), Gallardo has been spot on in his last three performances, giving up just four runs (two earned) in 17 innings (1.06 ERA) while notching 19 strikeouts. It was only a matter of time before Gallardo turned things around; his stuff is THAT good.
Speaking of strong stuff, Padres rookie Mat Latos is thought to have some of his own. However, he’s yet to harness that stuff consistently at the big-league level. For proof, just look at his last two outings. On April 20 at home, he scattered four hits and one walk over seven shutout innings in a 1-0 win over the Giants. Then six days later (on Monday) in Florida, he lasted just 2 2/2 innings, getting hammered for seven runs on seven hits and three walks in a 10-1 loss.
Over his last nine starts going back to early August when he got the call up to the big leagues, Latos has just two quality outings. In the other seven games, he’s given up 32 runs in 27 1/3 innings (10.54 ERA). Tonight, Latos faces one of the highest-scoring teams in baseball in the Brewers 126 runs in 22 games, or 5.7 per contest).
True, the Padres have been swinging some good bats, and yes, they’re on an 12-2 run, including taking the first two games of this series in shutout fashion. But only twice in those 15 games did San Diego face anything close to a quality pitcher: Matt Cain of the Giants and Josh Johnson of the Marlins. They beat Cain 3-2, while Latos pitched opposite Johnson in that 10-1 rout the Marlins put on San Diego on Monday. Throw in the fact there are going to be some unusual shadows to deal with (5:30 start time in San Diego), and Gallardo has a big edge in this one.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Karl Garrett
LA Angels (-110) at DETROIT
My free play run stands at 19-11 the last 30 days.
Early action on Saturday as I expect the Los Angeles Angels to slow down the Detroit Tigers.
Detroit has won their last 3 games, and they are 7-3 at home for the season, but starter Jeremy Bonderman has been getting hit hard of late, as the righty has surrendered 15 earned runs over his last 16 innings of work. Included is 3 runs in 6 innings in a no decision against the Angels 2 starts ago.
Scott Kazmir will oppose, and the southpaw did slow down the Tigers on April 19th, allowing 2 runs over his 6 innings of work which was good enough for the win.
Kazmir has just enough once again this afternoon to pitch the Angels to a win over the Tigers at Comerica Park.
G-Man backing the Angels.
2♦ LA ANGELS