Chris Jordan
Texas at SEATTLE
Now, back to Hernandez ...
He will be fired up for this start, as his personal nine-decision winning streak came to an end in his last start.
Though he extended his streak of quality starts to 18, I'm confident he'll have no trouble dominating the Rangers, who needed 12 innings to win 2-0 last night.
The ace righty has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his five starts. This will be Felix's second start against the Rangers this season, so he'll know what he's doing against this lineup, after settling for a no-decision against them on April 10 in Arlington, where he allowed two earned runs over seven innings.
Though he hasn't gotten a lot of run support, I see the bats coming alive against Matt Harrison, who has a 5.48 ERA on the young season.
2♦ MARINERS -1.5
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Both Cleveland and Boston have gone Over the total in five of their last six meetings against one another. In the last meeting, they combined to score 230 points. The Celtics have gone over the total in 25 of 34 chances when playing with three or more days rest. Cleveland has gone Over the total in 12 of 18 meetings this season against Atlantic Division opponents. We recommend a play on the Over.
Play on: Over
Tony George
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Boston Celtics +7.5
The Good News is I have ripped off 5 in a row in ther NBA with the Lakers winning last night to cover getting 1 point and winning by that much.
10-5 Playoff record to date if my math is correct. Not bad for the first round.
The Bad News is Tampa Bay not only did not cover the runline yesterday as my big GOY, but lost outright giving up 2 in the 9th..a VERY tough loss and one I personally dropped a dime on. DAMN!
SOMETIMES IT IS NOT WHAT YOU DO THAT COUNTS, BUT WHAT YOU DON"T DO
I do not like 1 game on the board today, just not worth a stretch after a big loss in Bases, although we won a unit in the NBA. Too chalky or just not enough value in any one game so I will post my LEANS for you today for FREE and fire up on Sunday with MLB and the NBA game between Atlanta and Milwaukee.
SATURDAY LEANS
MY DERBY PICKS FROM MY HORSE SOURCE
1. Awesome Angle 2. Jackson Bend 3. Super Saver ( Ice Box thrown into some exotics as well) Jackson Bend best mudder he says.
Bases - Padres +115..red hot but their pitcher today is not in good form, but they have ripped off 12-0 total score against the Brewers in this series to date and they are 8-0 at home their last 8. They are a small dog maybe worth a stretch.
NBA- Celtics +7.5 ** If there is any value in Boston it is going to be early on in the series and the question mark surround Lebron James and his elbow. The Celtics cannot hang in a 7 games series in my opinion because they are an old team, Garnett is not healthy and their depth is an issue. But early on they might make a run of it and the Cavs struggled with Chiago, a #8 seed. Allot of points here, perhaps Boston keeps it close.
Tom Freese
Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Washington Nationals
Florida starter Chris Volstad has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Volstad has allowed 16 runs in his 21.1 innings of work. The Marlins are 2-6 their last 8 games vs. righty starters and they are 4-10 with Volstad as home favorite. Volstad is 1-7 his last 8 starts. Washington starter Craig Stammen has alowed just 3 runs total in his last two starts. The Nationals are 7-2 their last 9 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Nats are 4-1 their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. PLAY ON WASHINGTON
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on San Diego Padres +120
With Milwaukee struggling to score runs, having been shut out in back-to-back games and scoring 3 or less runs in 6 of its last 8 games, I'll take the Padres showing solid value in the home dog role this evening. San Diego is blazing hot, having won 8 straight at home and 12 of its last 14 overall. The Padres are also an impressive 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home underdog. It's hard to feel good about the Brew Crew today when you consider that they are only 2-7 in Gallardo's last 9 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the National League West. Gallardo has decent numbers for the season, but 3 of his 4 starts have come against Washington and Pittsburgh twice. While Latos has struggled on the road, he has been really good at home where he has a 2.31 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.114. He was brilliant in his last home start, giving up no earned runs and only 4 hits against the Giants. I'll get behind the Padres at a nice price here tonight.
JR O'Donnell
SEA / TEX Under 7
Vegas is setting up the betting public here today May 1st in Seattle. Opening the total at 7.5 the sharps immediately pounded it down to 7. The Seattle hurler King Felix off a loss will baffle the Texas Rangers as both teams cant score right now. Look for Felix Hernandez (2-1, 2.23 ERA) to silence a Rangers team who has no pop right now at the plate. Texas lefty Matt Harrision is 1-1 with a 3.91 ERA vs Seattle and actually has done well vs the M's.
A few strong stats here: M's own a smooth 7-2 under mark @ home and the Rangers play the Under at a 6-3 mark.
Brett Atkins
I'm back on the National League diamond for a free play on the Giants today as they host the Rockies in San Francisco.
Matt Cain has been pitching well this season and has nothing to show for his work. Today he’ll get his first win as he shuts down the Rockies.
Cain is 0-1 with a 3.80 ERA in his four starts and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his four starts. Last season against the Rockies, he pitched well, getting the Giants three wins in his five appearances and twice limiting them to one run or less.
Sunday, Cain pitched great in St. Louis, allowing two runs on six hits but he didn’t get any help as the Cards won 2-0.
The Giants are 13-4 in their last 17 home games and they have beaten Colorado seven of eight at home and six of seven overall. When Cain is a home favorite, the Giants are 11-4.
All the signs point to San Francisco, so let’s play the Giants in this one.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Matt Fargo
Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
Play: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are a great value play this afternoon as they have a big starting pitching advantage yet are rather big underdogs. This is the perfect example of the linesmakers taking the team aspect too much into consideration and of course that is the overvalue of the Yankees. John Danks has been superb this season by posting a 1.55 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through four starts. This may be a surprise to some but he has been outstanding the last two plus seasons and in 95 career starts he has a 3.93 ERA which is excellent. His numbers against the Yankees have been pedestrian but the White Sox are 2-1 in his three starts against New York. While Danks has been sensational, Javier Vazquez has been just the opposite. He is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA and none of his four starts have been quality versions. He is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in three career starts against the White Sox but his last came in 2005 so those numbers are now meaningless. 3* Chicago White Sox
John Ryan
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
3* graded play on Cleveland as they host Minnesota set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 86-29 for 75% winners since 2004. Play on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher and is a below average AL hitting team hitting <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen sporting an ERA <=3.75 and with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. Twins are just 2-12 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Cleveland.
Black Widow
1* on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 9.5
There should be plenty of runs scored in Saturday's game between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles. Daisuke Matsuzaka makes his first start of the season since coming off the disabled list. He has been atrocious over the past two seasons and there's no reason to believe he's just going to turn it around this year, especially in his first outing. Matsuzaka owns a 4.78 ERA and a 1.688 WHIP in six lifetime starts vs. Baltimore. The main reason we are on this OVER is that Boston could score 10 runs on their own. The Red Sox are up against Orioles' starter Bradley Bergesen who is 0-2 with a 12.19 ERA and 2.611 WHIP in 3 starts this year. Bergesen has given up 20 runs, 14 earned, with 21 hits, 4 HR's and 6 walks in 10.1 innings. He has been knocked out before the end of the 5th inning in every start. The OVER is 6-1 in Bergesen's last 6 home starts. Take the OVER 9.5 runs here.
Bryan Leonard
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Boston at Baltimore Dice K returns from the DL to make his first start of the season for the Red Sox. He has struggled with his control his entire career with Boston and we can't see that changing here. In his last five starts against the Orioles he owns a 5.76 ERA with none of those starts lasting more than six full innings. The Boston offense is still struggling scoring just eight combined runs the last three games. Brad Bergesen returns to the starting rotation today after being sent down to the minors because of a bad start to the season. While pitchers coming off the DL are to be avoided, we like this situation much better. There are many instances where players have been sent down only to return with more focus, and Bergesen looks to have the correct temperament for just that scenario. He's had solid success in his young career against Boston allowing just four earned runs in 14 innings of work. He's permitted just 16 baserunners in those 14 innings. Boston continues to be priced as if they are major contenders yet they haven't played that way on the field. We take the home standing Orioles to once again outlast the overpriced Red Sox.
PLAY BALTIMORE
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -103
The Detroit Tigers aim for their 4th straight victory Saturday when they host the L.A. Angels. During this 3-game winning streak, they have outscored the likes of the Twins and Angels 24-12 while winning by at least 3 runs in each contest. At nearly even money Saturday, Detroit is showing solid value at home to get their 4th consecutive win. Jeremy Bonderman did win his only home start this season, allowing 1 earned run, 1 hits and 2 walks in 5 solid innings.
This play also falls under a system that is 46-19 (71%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against any team (LA ANGELS) - bad offensive team (=6.70) (AL), after a loss by 4 runs or more. Scott Kazmir is getting way too much respect from the odds makers today. Kazmir has posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP through 3 starts this season. He has allowed 12 ER, 17 hits, 5 HR's and 7 walks in 15 innings this year. Roll with Detroit to win their 4th straight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -150
The Marlins have owned the Nats to the tune of 28-10 in the last 38 meetings. They are also 24-8 against Washington in their last 32 home games. After a bad game 1 loss, I expect the Marlins to bounce back strong tonight. Volstad has been solid at home this season and the Marlins are 4-1 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Stammen has really struggled on the road and the Nationals are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts. The Nats are overachieving early while the Marlins are yet to get it going, but I expect Florida to finally get it going tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona –1.02 over CHICAGO
Rich Harden was a hotly pursued commodity over the offseason. As iffy and unreliable as he's been throughout his career, he's always flashed elite-level talent, talent that allowed him to rack up 352 strikeouts over 289 innings between 2008-2009. Harden really struggled in three of his first five starts but all of those games he struggled in were at Chase Field, a hitter’s paradise. In his last start in Colorado he walked just two, struck out 10 and went eight full innings and allowed just five hits and two runs. In his other road start against the Dodgers, he went six innings and allowed just two runs. He now has 38 k’s and eight walks in 34 innings and he’ll face a Cubbies team that is very average in everything. Carlos Silva is a prime example of why the AL is so much better than the NL. Silva could barely stay in the rotation when he pitched for the Twinkies and Mariners. This guy is a career stiff with a career BAA of .302 and an ERA near 5 over 163 starts or close to 1200 innings. This season in four starts he’s 2-0 with a BAA of .183 and an ERA of 1.73. However, he faced the Reds, Astros and Mets in his first three starts and in his last start against Washington he allowed three earned runs in seven innings. It was another quality start, barely, but he’ll face his stiffest test to date when he faces the NL’s leading offense. It’s only a matter of time before Silva implodes because he’s not that good and when Haren is a pooch against the Cubbies and Silva, it’s time to pull the trigger. Play: Arizona –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Washington +1.50 over FLORIDA
Yesterday we had Stammen penciled in against Nolasco but the Nats moved Stammen back a day and thus, our position has not changed. The Nats won again last night, they’re really playing some good ball and remain the most undervalued team in the majors. They’re now 13-10, they’ve won three in a row and five of its last seven and they’re getting solid pitching. Craig Stammen is a better pitcher than his 6.75 ERA suggests. He has outstanding command and has a good groundball ratio but has been rather unfortunate in a couple of starts. He’s been hit hard twice by the Phillies but his last two starts at Coors Field and at home against the Dodgers have both been quality starts. The Marlins have dropped three in a row and five of its last six. Chris Volstad is a decent pitcher and he, too, is better than his 5.79 ERA. Volstad is inducing quite a few grounders, which is always a good sign but his command is a bit of a concern, as he only has nine k’s and he’s walked the exact same number of batters. Both of these pitchers are capable of seven strong innings and both are capable of getting run out of the fourth. Thing is, the Nats are very warm while the Fish are cold and at this price the Nationals are once again way undervalued. Play: Washington +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +1.63 over ST. LOUIS
The equation here is a simple one that goes like this: Kyle Lohse should never be this big a favorite over anyone and when he is bet against him. Yeah, the Cards can win this one for sure but Lohse is another one of those career stiffs that can’t be trusted and you can double that at this price. His two decent starts came against the feeble hitting Astros and Braves. In his other two starts he was rocked to the tune of 14 hits and 11 earned runs nine innings. He has walked more batters (9) than he’s struck out (7) and his groundball/flyball ratio 35/46 is also reason for concern. Lohse has already allowed 26 hits and 16 earned runs in 22 innings, his WHIP is 1.59 and his BAA stands at .306. Homer Bailey is a talented hurler that has never lived up to his potential. He’s shown flashes on numerous occasions but then regresses usually the very next start. He’s hit and miss and if he can get through the first couple of innings unscathed he can pitch deep into games. He has yet to pitch a strong game this season and his numbers are not good but he’s pitched three games at the always tough Great American Ballpark and this venue will suit him much better. Anyway, the risk is worth the reward and there is no denying the value in playing against Lohse. Play: Cincinnati +1.63 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.02 over CLEVELAND
Sometimes it’s not about pitching. Besides, who the hell is Justin Masterson or the Tribe to be favored over the Twins? Masterson faced Minnesota 11 days ago and didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. In his last start he didn’t make it out of the fifth either and that was in pitcher-friendly Oakland. Over his last two starts, Masterson has surrendered 12 runs over eight frames. His WHIP on the year is a staggering 1.95 and his BAA is .325. Incidentally, Masterson is 0-3 in his career against Minnesota with an ERA of 5.63 and he hasn’t won a game since last August. Furthermore, the Twins are loaded with great hitters off to great starts and that includes Joe Mauer that’s hitting .345, Morneau is hitting .347, Cuddyer is batting .309 and the O-Dog is batting .301. The Indians are barely batting their weight. Jeff Manship hasn’t proven a thing at this level but this isn’t about wagering oh him. The combination of Masterson and the Indians can’t win a game and are about the most unappealing favorite on the board. Play: Minnesota +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO -½ +1.14 over Vancouver
The Blackhawks are –1.40 to win today but if the game goes into OT I wouldn’t want to be risking the juice in an OT game and therefore the play here is the Blackhawks in regulation. Chicago had a very tough opponent in its first round series and finished off the Preds, a physical team with great goaltending and a great defense, in very impressive fashion. The Canucks have neither great goaltending nor great defense and they're very vulnerable, especially on the road, to an explosive team like the Blackhawks. Roberto Luongo has regressed the past couple of years as much as any goaltender in the league. He appears slower and he’s constantly out of position. Frankly, I’m not sure what happened to him because at one time he was considered the best but that label is long gone and now he’s just very average. The Canucks were under .500 on the road this season and its first round opponent, the Kings, were a much easier out than the Preds. The Blackhawks ended that series by scoring five goals in each of the last two games and that’s an impressive number against the stingy Predators. The Canucks take a lot of penalties and with the joint absolutely rocking here, you can expect the home-ice advantage to come into play when the refs call several penalties on Vancouver to please the crowd. Chicago’s goaltending is not its strength bit Niemi is no worse than Luongo and Chicago allowed less goals during the season than the Canucks. Chicago could be the cream of the crop in the NHL this year and that enormous talent should prevail in game one. Play: Chicago -½ +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
Spartan
TAM (-130) vs KAN
Two nights ago I went with the Rays on the run line and they absolutely crushed the Royals. I passed on the game last night as I have seen some real flashes from Royals starter Brian Bannister and it gave me cause to pause. Well tonight I am going right back to Tampa as I, #1 Feel the Rays offense will bounce back strong after getting stifled last night by Bannister. Kyle Davies frankly does not impress me and he never has, I realize he had a strong outing last time out but with his rough career it's going to take a helluva lot more than that to persuade me that he has turned any corner guys. On the flip side David Price takes the ball for the Rays tonight, 3-1 2.20. When working at the Trop Price is an impressive 10-3, 2.65 in 15 starts and defeated the Royals in his last outing there 8-2 last july 31. The Royals win last night was impressive, I do not see them winning two in a row in Tampa and no way I am ever paying the heavy chalk but I do feel the run line is a reasonable wager guys. Look for the Rays to bounce back tonight behind Price and restore order.