Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, May 18

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Arizona at Miami
The Marlins look to take advantage of an Arizona team that is 0-4 in Brandon McCarthy's last 4 starts as a favorite. Miami is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130)

Game 951-952: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 14.469; Cubs (Feldman) 15.616
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-140); N/A

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.454; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.466
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Under

Game 955-956: Arizona at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 14.620; Miami (Koehler) 15.518
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Over

Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Capuano) 15.031; Atlanta (Medlen) 16.748
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-175); Under

Game 959-960: Milwaukee at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 13.692; St. Louis (Lynn) 15.231
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Under

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.222; Colorado (Chatwood) 16.160
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-115); Over

Game 963-964: Washington at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.300; San Diego (Stults) 16.536
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+130); Under

Game 965-966: Seattle at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 15.925; Cleveland (McAllister) 17.602
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-160); Over

Game 967-968: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 16.699; NY Yankees (Phelps) 15.686
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Over

Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.677; Baltimore (Jurrjens) 15.006
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Santiago) 15.532; LA Angels (Blanton) 13.553
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Under

Game 973-974: Boston at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Dempster) 14.782; Minnesota (Diamond) 15.649
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Over

Game 975-976: Detroit at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 16.503; Texas (Grimm) 15.525
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under

Game 977-978: Kansas City at Oakland (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Santana) 14.845; Oakland (Milone) 13.721
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Over

Game 979-980: Houston at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Bedard) 14.572; Pittsburgh (Burnett) 14.323
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-250); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+210); Over

Alf MusketaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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John Lineker vs. Azamat GashimovFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: John LinekerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is another stellar UFC card on FX from Brazil. Back in January at UFC FX 7, from Sao Paulo, Brazil, we saw Brazilian fighters win eight of 11 fights including the headliner where Vitor Belfort TKO'd Michael Bisping. Home cooking and being able to fight in your home country seems to be worth quite a bit. I haven't put a number like 50 cents for a matchup or exactly what home advantage is, but the percentage of wins is close to 70% for non-USA events. Japan has the highest winning rate due to the extreme time change.
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John Lineker (20-6, 1-1 UFC) is a gutsy aggressive Brazilian MMA fighter from Mao-de-Pedra. He lost his UFC debut to Louis Gaudinot a year ago and won his last fight this past November defeating Yasuhiro Urushitani by unanimous decision. What we like most about Lineker is his unlimited cardio. In the loss to Gaudinot it was a slugfest early on, and then and both fighters were trading positions on the ground. Lineker got caught in a guillotine choke but never gave up. He has knock-out power in both hands, hence his nick name "Hands of Stone."
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Azamat Gashimov (7-2, 0-1 UFC) is a very tall fighter at 5' 9" and is dropping down in weight to flyweight for this fight at 125 pounds. He lost his UFC debut to a very good fighter Ivan Menjivar by submission, and he has the one main weakness that most tall fighters have. They get taken down very easily. Gashimov has a solid amateur wrestling background from Russia, but lacks the overall MMA skills and experience to win this fight in my opinion. Thus we see Lineker having his way in this contest with either a striking battle or getting the majority of the takedowns.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York at IndianaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We gave out the Under in Friday's Game Five, scoring an easy winner by 21.5 points, and we look for tonight's Game Six to fall well under the total as well. Both offenses have been awful over the last three games, with New York failing to score more than 85 points while Indiana has put up scores of 82, 93, and 75 points. This series shifts back to Indiana were both games fell under the total and neither team shot well. Pacers finished with shooting percentages of 35% and 41%, while New York shot 35% and 36% in both losses. Pacers love this style of basketball and we expect another tough-fought, defensive battle. Indiana is a perfect 7-0 Under after playing back-to-back games with a combined score of 175 or less.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jordan Zimmermann (7-1, 1.69 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors; Zimmermann gave up two runs off nine hits over 7 2/3's frames of work in his team's eventual 6-2 win over the Dodgers on Monday; he'd finish with five K's and zero walks. Zimmermann is clearly the ace of the staff at the moment, having won his last four starts while posting a minuscule 0.95 ERA with 24 K's vs. just five walks in that span (the 26-year old has now given up three runs or fewer in each of his eight starts this season). Zimmermann will be opposed by Eric Stults (3-3, 4.57 ERA) who gave up three runs and five hits over 5 1/3's innings in his team's 4-2 setback to the Rays on Sunday. It was a bit of a step back for the southpaw, but no need to overreact to the somewhat sub-par performance; Stults had in fact worked into the seventh inning in each of his previous two outings (and note that Stults was a near perfect 6-1 with a 2.69 ERA in all "night games" last season). I believe the table is set for these two competent starters to battle each other into the latter frames and for this total to sneak below the posted number at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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White Sox vs. AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Over is 11-4-1 in the Angels last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record and the White Sox are in town. This is a good park for offense and the Angels are stuck with starter Joe Blanton (0-7, 6.46 ERA), which will help the Chicago offense. Blanton dropped to 0-7 following his loss to Kansas City on Monday night as he matched his shortest outing of the season at 4 2/3 innings. The Angels are on a 34-16-2 run over the total and the over is 34-16-2 in the Angels last 52 on grass. And when these teams meet the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles. Play the White Sox/Angels over the total.

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Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia PhilliesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Philadelphia PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies and Reds meet in Game Two of this three game set Saturday afternoon when Kyle Kendrick matches serves with Bronson Arroyo at Citizens Bank Park. Kendrick toes the slab in strong KW form with 26 strikeouts and 4 walks this season sporting a 3-0 career team start mark at home in this series. With Arroyo 4-8 in his career team starts against the Phils and 1-6 with a 7.84 ERA in his last eight away team starts during may, look for Kendrick to move to 16-5 in his team starts in May here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Dave Price

Washington Nationals -145

The Key: The Nats have the edge on the mound with Jordan Zimmerman, who's 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA. They are 21-6 in Zimmermann's last 27 starts, and 11-1 in his last 12 road starts versus a team with a losing record. San Diego's Eric Stults is 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA and that number is up to 5.87 at home. The Nationals have won 7 of their last 8 in San Diego. Take Washington.

Jimmy Boyd

Royals/A's OVER 7.5

While last night’s game may have been a pitcher's duel, there should be no shortage of offense today. Tom Milone will get the start for Oakland today and while his overall numbers on the season have been solid he is certainly trending in the wrong direction. Milone is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 4.26 ERA. He has given up 4 home runs in those last three games. Milone is facing a Royals team that is batting .267 in their past 7 games and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game.

Oakland picked up a 2-1 victory last night and they were facing one of the best pitchers on Kansas City’s rotation in James Shields. They should be able to get back to their normal 4.7 runs per game scoring average today. They are facing Ervin Santana who is coming off a confidence crushing performance against New York just under a week ago. Santana gave up 2 home runs and 4 earned runs. Santana has struggled on the road posting a 4.26 ERA and a 1-1 record.

Alex Smart

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: San Francisco Giants

Two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Linceum may not be the pitcher he was earlier on in his career, but he is still an extremely capable and experienced hurler who has enjoyed success at Coors Field in career. The veteran pitcher is 4-1 with a 3.79 ERA in his last six starts at Coors Field. I like him in this spot on a value line. Note: SF has won 12 of the L/15 meetings in this series in the Mile High city, and will be in a bounce back spot today after a rare loss yesterday.Rockies are 0-9 in their last 9 games following a win.Giants are 4-0 in Lincecums last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.

MATT RIVERS

Saturday's free play is for the Under to come through in the Cincinnati-Philadelphia late afternoon contest at Citizen's Bank Park.

This one is all about the pitching matchup of Bronson Arroyo and Kyle Kendrick.

Arroyo comes in having allowed 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his last 6 trips to the rubber. That includes 8 innings of 2 run ball at home versus the Phillies back on April 15th.

5 of Arroyo's last 7 starts have ended up holding under the total.

Kendrick has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 7 assignments, including working 7 scoreless frames at Cincy on April 16th.

Kendrick's ERA for the year is a solid.2.47.

After a Friday night game, expect the pitchers to hold the advantage over the batters in this late day contest, and expect Arroyo and Kendrick to hang plenty of nothing on the Bank's scoreboard on Saturday afternoon.

Reds-Phillies to go under the total.

3* CINCINNATI-PHILADELPHIA UNDER

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for Saturday is on the Miami Marlins plus the money on the Arizona Diamondbacks, as it's about time for the Fish to snap this losing streak.

I won't list the pitchers in this one, but I do like my chances in this game with Tom Koehler toeing the slab against Brandon McCarthy.

Miami's Koehler put in a solid first start of the season - which happened to be the second of his career - and though he lost in L.A., he allowed just two runs in five innings and threw 79 pitches. That was his first start since April 14 with Triple-A New Orleans, and now I think he'll be prepared.

As for McCarthy, he is still searching for his first win with the D-backs, as he is 0-3 with a 5.64 ERA on the year.

2* MIAMI

JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday freebie is the Over in the Dodgers-Braves contest.

13 runs scored last night in the series opener between the Dodgers and the Braves, and I will side with the offense to once again deliver the Over tonight at Turner Field.

With last night's Over, the Dodgers are now on a long-term 10-4-2 Over run their last 16 games, while the Braves Over streak is an even more impressive 10-2-1 their last 13 times on the diamond.

Chris Capuano and Kris Medlen will throw the ball tonight, and Capuano is just 1-2 with an ERA near 7 for the season, with the Over standing at 3-1-1 his last 5 starts.

As for Medlen, he has pitched into some bad luck, as his 3.44 ERA is not terrible, but his 1-5 record surely leaves a lot to be desired.

Gong to look for the runs to continue tonight, and for the Dodgers and Braves to make it Over the total for a second time in as many days.

3* LOS ANGELES-ATLANTA OVER

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals on the Run Line, as I have them destroying their National League Central guests, the Milwaukee Brewers.

With the run line play, we'll have right-hander Lance Lynn on our side, and that's not a bad thing, as he's 6-1 on the year with a 2.88 ERA. He comes into this one after showing incredible poise against the New York Mets, as he settled down after walking four of the first 10 batters he faced in his last start before retiring 16 of the final 18 of his outing.

Lynn, who became the second National League starter to reach six wins this year his last time out, has gone seven innings in each of his past five starts and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of them.

Lynn opposes Marco Estrada, who performed well his last time to the hill, but only because he had seven days rest - in my opinion - struggled in his previous two outings before that. He has a 5.32 ERA on the year and comes in on four days rest this time.

Cardinals win big.

2* CARDINALS -1.5

CRAIG DAVIS

Today's free play is on the Washington Nationals on the run line over the San Diego Padres.

Last night the Nats didn't play their best baseball and still won the game by two runs. Today they send their best pitcher to the mound to face a San Diego team clearly in rebuilding mode.

That's now two straight wins by the Nats over the Padres despite San Diego owning a 4-3 record vs. teams from the NL East.

That doesn't seem to matter to Washington by the way they've treated San Diego recently. The Nats made it seven of nine wins vs. San Diego and I'm not seeing any reason this game will be any different.

2* WASHINGTON -1.5