Rob Vinciletti
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona fits a solid 80% System, direct from the database here tonight. We want to play on certain road favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a road favored win at -140 or higher, won by 5 or more runs and are taking on an opponent off a 5 or more run home dog loss and scored 2 or less runs with 5 or more hits. Arizona has a pitching Edge with Mccarthy over Koehler and are 3-0 on the road with a total that is 8 to 8.5 and have won 7 of the last 9 here. Arizona has a stellar 2.70 road bullpen era too. Miami has now lost 12 of 15 this month and 13 of 17 vs winning teams. They are hitting .215 at home, while scoring just 2.5 runs per game here. With Miami just 6-21 as a home dog from +125 to +150 we will back Arizona here tonight.
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Baltimore -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Roberto Hernandez makes his third start of the season against Baltimore, while Jair Jurrjens comes up from Triple-A to return to the Majors against a team that has never seen him. Hernandez has allowed nine runs in 12 innings against Baltimore this season. He has allowed seven home runs in 42 innings of work and he'll be pitching in Camden Yards during the day, where the ball carries extremely well. Tampa's win on Friday night was just the fifth in 16 tries on the road this season against American League competition. Hernandez has allowed four or more runs in four of his seven starts.
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Jair Jurrjens gets the ball against an inconsistent Rays lineup and one that has never seen him before. The element of surprise will work in Jurrjens's favor if he is able to throw strikes. He was good in eight Triple-A starts, posting a 2.4 K/BB ratio and a 1.14 WHIP. If the Orioles lineup gets to Hernandez like they have twice this season, Jurrjens will just have to keep the Orioles in the game and turn it over to one of the best bullpens in the game. It would seem likely that Jurrjens should have success the first couple times through the Rays order because they have never seen him before and that should be all the Orioles need to build a lead and maintain it.
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Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds got victimized by some tough luck in the eighth inning last night. Walk, what should have been an error by the pitcher, hit batter, error by the second baseman. Murphy's Law jumped up and bit the normally solid Reds bullpen, and that was it for the latest Cincy winning streak.
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Those mishaps followed a top of the eighth where Joey Votto had tied things up with a massive blast, and the Reds would have taken the lead if not for an unexpected outstanding catch by Delmon Young, who is generally an outfield liability. All in all, a tough luck night for the Reds. I don't see luck being as much of a factor today, though, in a game I expect the Phillies to win.
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Bronson Arroyo is on the bump for the Reds today, and he has had his share of problems with the Phillies over the years. The overall numbers are pretty bad, and they're even worse at this locale. The likely Philly hitters are 32/103 vs. Arroyo, with six long balls in the mix. The veteran righty is off a sharp effort, but I see him having a potentially rough game here.
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Kyle Kendrick has been the most pleasant Phillies surprise this season. Kendrick is on a roll coming into this one and I sure don't mind riding a hot pitcher when he's priced in this neighborhood. This is no cinch for Kendrick, as he's had lots of trouble with the likely Reds starters (21/65, 5 HR) but I like his current form enough to basically override those shaky stats.
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The Reds are the better team, but I'm giving the pitching advantage to the hosts. Plus, the Phillies are at least a little better offensively when facing righties, so I'll count on a few runs from them today. With the game in the price range it's at presently, I'm willing to take the plunge with the Phillies.
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Kansas City Royals at Oakland AthleticsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a Free play on the Oakland Athletics. The A's won Game 1 in a pitcher's duel between James Shields and Jarrod Parker. Adam Rosales hit an eighth inning home run to seal the deal for Oakland, as they came from behind for the victory. Oakland will send Tommy Milone to the mound in Game 2, and he's coming off a loss to Seattle his last time out. Tommy has always been a better pitcher in his home park, and this season is no exception, posting a 2.63 ERA at O.co Coliseum compared to a 4.93 ERA on the road. He's also been good against the Royals, posting an ERA of 1.20 in his last two starts. Kansas City will hand the ball to Ervin Santana, who's been slipping up after a good start to the season. Santana (3-2, 2.79 ERA) allowed four runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Mets his last time out. Prior to that he took the decision in a 4-3 loss to Baltimore. Yoenis Cespedes is 2-for-6 lifetime versus Santana, but both of those hits went out of the ballpark. John Jaso also hasn't been fooled, he's 7-for-14 with a home run versus the veteran right-hander. Oakland appears to have quite a favorable matchup here at home, and the price is very reasonable.
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Seattle Mariners at Cleveland IndiansSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cleveland IndiansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The beat goes on for the Indians, who continue to find different ways to win every night. On Friday, it was a 3-run homer by Jason Kipnis in the 10th inning that pushed the Tribe to a 63 win over Seattle. Cleveland has now won 15 of 20 overall and 10 of 12 at home and will like its chances on Saturday behind starter Zach McAllister, who is 2-0 with a 2.74 ERA in his last three starts. meanwhile, the Mariners' Joe Saunders, while pitching effectively at Safeco Field, has been drilled on the road, where his ERA is a sky-high 12.54 (ouch!) in four starts!
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Milwaukee vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I've cashed the Cardinals multiple times earlier in the week as a free play winner and think Saturday happens to be a good time to jump on them again as they host the Milwaukee Brewers. They took Friday's opener, 7-6, which was their 13th win in 16 games. Milwaukee is going the other way right now, losing 13 of 15. This series appears to be a big mismatch. St. Louis is now 7-1 vs. Milwaukee this year.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Lance Lynn - I have to start here. He's 6-1 in his eight starts with a 2.88 ERA. At home, he's 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA. Since his 1st start of the year, he's allowed more than three runs only one time. Needless to say, I don't think Brewers starter Marco Estrada will be much match for him. Estrada has an 8.22 ERA his last three starts, though he did win his last.
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2. Hitting woes - The bottom four hitters in Milwaukee's lineup showed why they are hitting higher in the order Friday night, going a combined 0 for 15 Friday. Heading into yesterday, the Brewers were averaging just 3.3 runs per game on the road.
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3. X-Factor - The Cardinals seem to have solved their previous bullpen woes somewhat with Edward Mujica having saved all 12 games in 12 opportunities.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Take: St. Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In a battle of two teams going in opposite directions, the St Louis Cardinals will look for back to back wins over the Milwaukee Brewers when the two teams meet tonight at Busch Stadium in St Louis. The Cardinals took Game 1 of the series after putting up a 5-spot in the bottom of the first before eventually holding on for the 7-6 victory. Lance Lynn, who will be looking for his seventh win on the season, will be on the hill this evening for the Cardinals. He has been excellent for St. Louis this season, posting a 6-1 record with a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has been better than that in his last five outings, posting a 1.80 ERA with 37 K’s in 35 innings pitched. Lynn will be opposed by Marco Estrada, who hasn’t pitched nearly as well as his 3-2 record. He has an ERA of 5.32 and is putting people on the bases at an alarming rate, allowing 49 hits and 13 walks in just 45.2 innings pitched. The Cardinals, who have won 13 of their last 16 games, have been excellent in the spot they are in here tonight against the Brewers. They are 16-5 in their last 21 home games when listed as a favorite of -150 to -200 and have won 12 of their last 16 games following a win. They have also been very good with Lynn on the bump against teams with a losing record, winning 17 of 21. The Brewers, who have been a bit of a disappointment in the NL Central this season, have struggled a bit in the situation they are in here this evening. They have lost 32 of their last 44 games on the road when listed as an underdog and have gone just 3-13 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. They are also an awful 1-12 in their last 13 games against teams from the NL Central. Pair those numbers with the fact that the Cardinals have gone 26-10 in the last 36 head to head meetings and we’ll lay the price with them at home to get the win and get us back on track here with the Free Plays. Get this one as early as possible because we expect the price to be through the roof as first pitch approaches!!!
MLB Predictions
Kansas City Royals +126
The reason I like this play is similar to why I took Kansas City last night. Oakland isn't hitting well lately, although they did win last night it was 2-1 with 6 hits. KC's starter Santana is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA, .250 OBA and 1.10 WHIP. He will be up against Tommy Milone who has been up and down this season. He has given up 4+ earned runs in 4 of his 8 starts and then 2 or fewer in the other 4 (his ERA is 3.71). The A's are 0-5 in Milone's last 5 starts. I had this closer to a pick'em and I think the Royals rebound with a victory tonight.
Bob Balfe
Cincinnati Reds -110
The Reds have been the better team in this series. Cincinnati is always going to get more hits and have more base runners. The Phillies usually only score so many runs and need flawless games to beat teams that hit the ball well. Take the Reds.
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CLEVELAND -1½ +143 over SeattleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Joe Saunders seemed to establish himself as a solid mid-rotation pitcher last season with a 4.07 ERA and helping the Orioles get into the playoffs. This year, he's regressed into something awful with a 5.51 ERA, 18BB and 20 K’s in 47.1 IP. On the road, Saunders is 0-4 with an ERA of 12.54 and that’s after facing Oakland, Texas, Houston and Toronto. He gets a difficult assignment against the Indians' robust offense in Cleveland and it’s not likely to end well. Something good is happening for the Indians. The team is contending and that means big crowds. For a team that has not experienced success for years, those big crowds inject energy. The players will come to the park today extremely jacked up after a three-run walk off homer last night to take the opener, 6-3. The Indians have now won two in a row, four of six and 15 of their past 19 ball games.
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We targeted Zach McAllister as a breakout candidate before the season started and he’s paid off handsomely already. McAllister has developed one of the nastiest sliders in the game and he can locate it just about anywhere he wants. McAllister has also been equally as effective against lefties as he has against righties, which is another step to becoming an elite starter. The Indians have won the past three games that McAllister has started and he should get plenty of support here against one of the biggest stiffs in the game in Joe Saunders.
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Kansas City +121 over OAKLANDFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When Dayton Moore was named general manager in 2006, he quickly put a seven-year plan in place to rebuild the Royals. The farm system (outside of Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, who were in Double-A) was basically starting from scratch. The Royals hadn't been active in the international market. He changed that and became an aggressive big spender in international signings and the draft. Along the way, Moore’s moves offered the Royals gradual progress. Maybe not in wins, but these draft picks eventually developed into major leaguers such as Moustakas and Hosmer. Money spent on international free agents also bore fruit. And trading a Cy Young Award winner in Zack Greinke netted farmhands and young, major league-ready talent: shortstop Alcides Escobar and center fielder Lorenzo Cain, who now anchor the Royals’ defense. However, despite all these efforts, the lack of pitching remained their undoing. All the methods they had used to develop position players simply didn’t yield the elite pitching prospects that often turn struggling teams into contenders. So Moore made some moves. The ball started rolling with last season’s trade deadline and didn’t stop until well into the offseason. In the following order, Moore acquired these pitchers: Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, James Shields and Wade Davis. As for Earvin Santana, though his 2012 numbers (9-13, 5.16 ERA) shouldn't have merited any interest from the Royals, two of Moore’s top evaluators, Jim Fregosi Jr. and Gene Watson, had watched Santana throw during the last two months of the season. Both believed that not only was Santana’s slider back, but he could bounce back all the way to his 2010 and 2011 form when he won a combined 28 games for the Angels. Boy, were they right. Santana is posting the best skills he has shown since 2008. His strikeout rate surge is supported by a 10.6% swinging strike rate. His dominance over right-handed bats is a thing of beauty. Santana has 39 K’s in 48 innings while issuing just six walks. He also has an outstanding 2.79 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP with an xERA of 3.31. There is nothing fluky about Santana’s hot start and he has a great opportunity to thrive again at this park.
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Tommy Milone has made eight starts and has an even 4/4 split in quality starts versus disaster starts. With some glaring weaknesses in his Milone’s profile, most notably a 35%/20%/45% GB/LD/FB split, it’s no mystery as to why Milone is at the mercy of the park conditions when he takes the hill. He does have some upside and some outstanding control but he’s the second best pitcher on the hill today. The A’s offense isn’t as good as either and now we get the benefit of a tag with the better offense and better starter.
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Chicago +118 over L.A. ANGELSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. There is no such thing as due to win, which many will apply to Joe Blanton and the Halos today. Truth is, it gets more difficult to win after each passing loss and that’s what Blanton faces today. He also faces a White Sox team that has won five in a row. Blanton is 0-7 with an ERA of 6.46. He’s been tagged for eight jacks in 46 innings to go along with a BAA of .359 and a 1.87 WHIP. Blanton remains as hittable as any pitcher in the business and even Adam Dunn and his feeble bat has five hits in 23 AB’s versus Blanton and two of those hits left the yard. Blanton, pitching for the Angels is a combination to avoid right now while the opposite is true for the South Side and Hector Santiago.
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Last year, Santiago opened the season as Chicago’s surprise closer but too many BBs and HRs ended experiment quickly. He began a new experiment in Sept/Oct, where in four starts (19 IP) he had 26/11 K/BB, 4 ER, and 24/19 GB/FB. Any pitcher with a strikeout rate must be taken serious but Santiago remained a high risk because of those walks. 2013 comes along and Santiago has walked just eight batters the entire season in 32 innings. He has maintained a high strikeout rate with 31. Santiago also has an elite 1.08 WHIP and he hads a much better chance for success here than Blanton. Because this choice is based on the starters, we’ll play it in five innings.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Lucas Martin Matthysse by KO TKO or DQ +110 over Lamont Peterson
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This fight takes place in Atlantic City, at the Boardwalk Hall. The interim WBC light welterweight title is on the line and most experts are having a tough time calling a winner here. We see it differently. Lucas Martin Matthysse is 33-2 with 31 KO’s and both of his losses could have easily been wins. The Argentinian has uncanny power, as his 31 knockouts out of 33 fights can surely attest to. His punches hur even watching them and his boxing ability is underrated, as well. It’s surprising that he is only a 2-1 favorite because he would likely defeat this opponent 9 out of 10 times, suggesting he should be at least an 8-1 favorite.
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Lamont Peterson is in way over his head in here. The man nicknamed “Havoc” was knocked down and lost a wide decision to Timothy Bradley back in Dec. of 2009. He was given a gift win against the now we KNOW” overrated and over-hyped Amir Khan. Victor Ortiz had Peterson down twice in round 3. In his last, Peterson stopped a washed-up Kendall Holt in eight rounds and all we can say about that is “big deal”. Lamont was also recently suspended for substance abuse. Matthysse has his career on the line in this one, and an impressive win here will ensure him some upcoming big-time fights/paydays. This one might not end in the first round, like Lucas’s last fight did, but there is little doubt that he’ll either knock Peterson out cold or it will be a slower/gradual breakdown. Either way, this one isn’t going to make it to the final bell and Peterson is not going to emerge victorious. It’ll be Matthysse who gets the EMPHATIC statement win.
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INDIANA -5 over New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pacers only received notice a few hours before tip-off in Game 5 that starting point guard George Hill would have to miss the game due to failing the NBA’s concussion policy. The Pacers certainly had no inkling that this would happen and had to insert D.J. Augustin into the starting line-up on such short notice. George Hill’s status is questionable for this one, although he is scheduled to undergo tests this afternoon in the hopes of playing tonight. Even if he is absent, we feel confident that the Pacers can still soundly defeat the Knicks at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
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The Knicks don’t have the greatest point guards to begin with. Even with D.J. Augustin inserted into the starting unit, it is still a wash with the Knicks employing a below-average 3 point-guard rotation of Raymond Felton, Pablo Prigioni, and Jason Kidd. None of the Knicks three points guard would qualify as a top 20 point guard in this league, so having to resort to starting D.J. Augustin in place of George Hill isn’t that much of a nightmare for the Pacers as one would think. This isn’t like the Thunder losing Russell Westbrook. The Pacers still rely mainly on Paul George and Roy Hibbert, with David West proving to be a big factor in this series as well. Hibbert was stymied in Game 5 as he was plagued for most of the game with foul trouble and only ended up playing 31 minutes. With Hibbert off the court for those 17 minutes, the Knicks outscored them by 10 points, which ended up being the difference in the game’s final margin. As long as Hibbert can minimize the foul calls against him here, then the Knicks are in trouble.
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Meanwhile the media has dubbed Game 5 as J.R. Smith’s “breakout” game. We fail to see how he came anywhere close to having a breakout game. J.R. Miss still shot under 40%, which stretches his streak now to eight straight playoff games and he was only 1 of 4 from beyond the arc. Carmelo yet again played me-first basketball as he shot the ball 28 times, and failed to collect a single assist. The Knicks can get away with that in MSG, but when these shots aren’t dropping on the road, they will be hard-pressed to beat the Pacers, whose game-plan involves pounding the ball in the paint with Hibbert and West. Lastly, it has to be mentioned that the Pacers have played inspired basketball all season in front of their home crowd. The Knicks have failed to win a game in the regular season or postseason this year in Indiana. Indiana has also won all five of their home playoff contests by double digits margins. These trends certainly support a play on the Pacers in this one, as they will be energized and ready to close out the Knicks, with or without George Hill. It is time for the Pacers to wear their own funeral black to the stadium to celebrate the demise of the Knicks and we’re on it.
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Pass NHL
WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco at ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 10.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After a pair of slugfests to open this series, I expect things to settle down here in Game Three. The Giants starter, Tim Lincecum is getting ever close to the form that made him one of the top pitchers in baseball, as he has struckout at least 6 batters over each of his last five starts, and has a respectable 3.76 career ERA vs. the hard-hitting Rockies' lineup. Tyler Chatwood has held the Giants in check, establishing a 2.93 ERA against them in limited appearances. The UNDER is 17-8-1 in Lincecum's last 26 starts after his team scored 5+ in their previous game. The Rockies are 8-3-1 to the UNDER in their last 12 vs. a winning team. Look for the pitchers to be in charge here, so play the UNDER.
Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles AngelsFOR SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even a blind pig finds an acorn which is exactly what has happened with the CWS underperforming offense after their 2-0 start to this extended weekend series. Now the White Sox have won 4 consecutive games while the Angles have lost 3 straight to drop to 15-27 including 8-13 on this field. Blanton clearly is not the answer. The Angels have dropped all 8 of his starts over which time he is 0-7 with a 6.46 ERA, 1.87 WHIP. Blanton is off an outing in which he allowed 7 runs on 12 hits in 4 2/3 IP of an 11-4 loss to KC. Yet the Angels are strangely made a mid-priced favorite in this game making it our Perception/Reality Underdog Game of the Day! Santiago enters pitching for his place in the rotation. This despite the fact his YTD numbers show a 2.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 31/8 KBB. In 7 career starts, Santiago is 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA. And the White Sox are thinking about trading him! I know at least one manager, on today’s opposing bench, who would love to have Santiago in the rotation. Late innings should belong to the Pale Hose who sport a bullpen index advantage of 156-112.
Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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White Sox vs AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After a couple of low-scoring games to start this series, I won't be surprised if the bats come alive this afternoon.
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Blanton has seen five of his eight starts top the total, including three of four at LA. (He's 0-3 with a 7.22 ERA and 1.986 WHIP here.) He's backed by an LA bullpen which has a 5.01 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at home.
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While Santiago has impressive numbers, he's still only made a few starts and he gave up two home runs last time out. Overall, he gave up six runs (3 earned) in 5 2/3 innings, permitting eight hits.
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After the last 3-0 loss vs. Sale, which was less than a week ago, the Angels saw their next game produce 15 runs. Don't be surprised if this one also hits double-digits.