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Red Sox -128FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Twins have lost their last 4 at home to the Red Sox and will have a tough time ending that skid with Scott Diamond on the hill. Diamond is 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA at home this season, and the Twins are 1-8 in his last 9 home starts. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Bet Boston.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Miami MarlinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that the Marlines will avenge last night’s loss, which was a 10* loser on the FREE picks pages. Still, I stand at 9-7 on the season with those free pick 10* selections. The record truly does not matter. What does matter is that by playing dogs as graded by my Simulator and supporting fundamental research, those plays have made3.39 units per unit wagered. So, a dime player has made $1,356 off of these plays alone. This number is based on a dime player playing a dime on 25* plays and then playing 2.5 times less that amount to equate to the 10* grading. The wager on the 10* plays would then be $400 The 25* plays in MLB stand at a profit of $11,350 based on the 49 releases this season. The add in the ‘15* Pair of Titans’ cards where each card has TWO DOGS lined at least +140 and higher and the 5* parlays that go with that card and they have made a combined profit of $5,288 wagering $600 on the 15* plays and $200 on the 5* parlays. So, you can readily see that win percentage matters little in my MLB methods and units made mean everything.
WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York at IndianaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 179.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The deeper this series goes, the harder it has become to score for both teams. Over the last three games, they have averaged just 162.6 points per game. The Knicks are getting nothing from Jason Kidd, as he is 0-17 from the field in his last nine games. The Knicks have averaged just 77 ppg in the two games played here, and Melo has yet to make a field goal in the fourth quarter here, when the Pacers really turn it up defensively. The Knicks are 26-17 UNDER this season when facing a winning team. They are also 26-16 UNDER after a home game. Indiana is a perfect 7-0 this year after back-to-back games in which 175 or fewer points were scored. Take the UNDER.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/ Houston Over 7.5: (Added) Great stat here for this one. Houston has been a dog of +200 11 times this year and in the last 10 times the Over is 8-1-1, with all 10 games putting up 8 or more runs. Houston has averaged 3.6 rpg in these games, while their Pitching has allowed 6 rpg in those games. Overall this staff is 30th in ERA and WHIP and they have allowed 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games overall. Erik Bedard has been a big part of making this staff so bad, as he has a 6.75 ERA overall, including an 8.25 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Over is 5-0-1 in his starts and his games have averaged 13.5 rpg. This Pittsburgh offense is really starting to coe around, averaging 4.4 rpg in their last 10 games. This team did struggle vs lefties earlier in the year, but of late they have been tagging them good, hitting .269 and scoring 6.65 rp/9 off of them in their last 10 games. Hell Pittsburgh may get the over on their own here, but for good measure I expect the Astros to put up at least 3 of their own. Burnett is not unhittable and the Astros have scored decently when installed as huge dogs. Let's get at least 10 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Cincinnati Under 8: Good pitching matchup here should lead to a low scoring game. Kyle Kendrick has been Philly's most consistent starter this year not allowing more than 2 ER's in each of his last 7 starts, while posting an ERA of 1.83 over that stretch. At Home he has an ERA of 4.01, but just 2.82 in his last 3 starts here. He has also fared well vs the Reds of late, allowing a total of 3 ER's in his last 3 starts vs them. Bronson Arroyo has been up and down this year, but he has allowed 2 ER's or less in 4 of his last 6 starts and just 2 ER's in each of his last 2 starts vs Philly. The Offenses are playing well right now, but today will belong to the pitching. Both starters have the ability to shut these offenses dwn and I feel they will, making this a pitcher's duel.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -119
The Detroit Tigers have a massive edge on the mound Saturday. They should be a much heavier favorite as a result. I'll gladly take advantage by backing them at an excellent price tonight.
Anibal Sanchez gets the ball for Detroit looking to continue his Cy Young-caliber 2013 campaign. He has gone 4-3 with a 2.05 ERA with 66 strikeouts over 52 2/3 innings this year. He has also posted a 1.82 ERA through four road starts.
Justin Grimm is 2-3 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.485 WHIP through six starts for Texas. He has really been knocked around the yard of late, going 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his last three starts.
The Tigers are 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Rangers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Tigers Saturday.
Jesse Schule
Kansas City Royals AT Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics
The A's won Game 1 in a pitcher's duel between James Shields and Jarrod Parker. Adam Rosales hit an eighth inning home run to seal the deal for Oakland, as they came from behind for the victory. Oakland will send Tommy Milone to the mound in Game 2, and he's coming off a loss to Seattle his last time out. Tommy has always been a better pitcher in his home park, and this season is no exception, posting a 2.63 ERA at O.co Coliseum compared to a 4.93 ERA on the road. He's also been good against the Royals, posting an ERA of 1.20 in his last two starts. Kansas City will hand the ball to Ervin Santana, who's been slipping up after a good start to the season. Santana (3-2, 2.79 ERA) allowed four runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Mets his last time out. Prior to that he took the decision in a 4-3 loss to Baltimore. Yoenis Cespedes is 2-for-6 lifetime versus Santana, but both of those hits went out of the ballpark. John Jaso also hasn't been fooled, he's 7-for-14 with a home run versus the veteran right-hander. Oakland appears to have quite a favorable matchup here at home, and the price is very reasonable.