NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) at Boston (10-3 SU and ATS)
The streaking Celtics look to get a stranglehold on the Eastern Conference finals against the suddenly sinking Magic as this best-of-7 series shifts to TD Garden for Game 3.
Boston went on the road and upended Orlando in Games 1 and 2, opening the series with a 92-88 win as a 6½-point underdog Sunday, then pulling off a 95-92 upset as a seven-point pup Tuesday night. In the latter contest, Paul Pierce had 28 points, and Rajon Rondo had 25 points and eight assists for the Celts, who shot 45.9 percent from the floor (34 of 74), despite a 5-for-15 effort from 3-point range.
Boston has now won five in a row SU and ATS, going against the teams with the top two regular-season records in the NBA, taking three in a row from top overall seed Cleveland prior to the two wins at Orlando.
Orlando’s Dwight Howard, who had just 13 points in Game 1, poured in 30 in Game 2 and had eight rebounds, but only two of his teammates reached double figures, with Vince Carter and J.J. Redick adding 16 apiece. The Magic shot just 39.4 percent (28 of 71) and lost despite a sizable edge at the free-throw line, hitting 29 of 38 (76.3 percent) to Boston’s 22 of 28 (78.6 percent).
These rivals have split their last eight meetings at the betting window, with Orlando going 5-3 SU in that stretch, but Boston is 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) in six meetings this season with the Magic. Going back to Game 7 of last year’s second-round playoff series – won by Orlando – the visitor and the underdog have covered in seven straight in this rivalry, and the Magic are 5-2 ATS on their last seven trips to Beantown.
The SU winner has cashed in all 13 of the Celts’ playoff contests and in 23 straight games overall for Doc Rivers’ team, and the SU winner is 17-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 18 contests.
Boston is 29-18 SU but just 17-29-1 ATS this season at the Garden, where it averages 99.7 ppg (48.5 percent shooting) and gives up 95.9 (45.6 percent). However, in the playoffs, the Celtics are 5-1 SU and ATS at home. Orlando is 29-16 (26-18-1 ATS) on the highway this season and has won 12 of its last 14 away from home (10-3-1 ATS), going 4-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs during sweeps of Charlotte and Atlanta, respectively.
Along with their 10-3 ATS mark in the postseason, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 5-0 overall, 6-1 against the Southeast Division, 5-1 at the Garden and 4-1 laying points, though they have failed to cash in four straight games following three or more days off.
Despite the two setbacks at home, the Magic remain on a slew of positive pointspread sprees, including 20-7-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 10-3-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 after a SU loss, 6-2 after three or more days off and 16-6 against the Atlantic Division. The lone negative: a 1-5-1 ATS mark in Orlando’s last seven starts as a ‘dog, all on the road.
Boston is on “under” rolls of 4-1 overall, 9-2 in conference finals contests (5-1 last six) and 5-2 as a playoff chalk. Likewise, Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 7-2-1 overall (5-1 last six), 39-12-1 after a non-cover, 27-9 after a SU loss and 8-3 as a pup (all on the road).
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 10 clashes overall, including five of six this season. Also, the under is on a 4-0 streak between these two in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
INTERLEAGUE
Boston (22-21) at Philadelphia (26-15)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89 ERA) looks to rebound from a horrendous start at Yankee Stadium when he matches up against Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24) and the Phillies as this three-game interleague series continues at Citizens Bank Park.
Boston scored a run in the top of the first inning on Friday, but was shutout thereafter and fell 5-1 to end a modest three-game winning streak. The Red Sox are just 4-5 in their last nine games, and they’ve lost seven of nine on the highway 20 of 29 against opponents with a winning record and four of five on Saturday. On the bright side, Boston is still on interleague runs of 63-24 overall, 30-13 in N.L. ballparks and 38-14 against the N.L. East.
The Phillies are on a 14-5 roll, having won nine of 13 at home during this stretch. They’re also on positive runs of 6-1 against winning teams and 41-16 when facing right-handed starters at home, but they’ve still lost four of six in interleague play (all against the A.L. East), eight of 10 interleague home games, 37 of 54 interleague games against right-handed starters and 12 of 17 on Saturday.
Despite Friday’s result, Boston has owned this rivalry, winning 13 of the last 17 meetings, going 4-2 in the last six battles in Philadelphia.
Matsuzaka got crushed by the Yankees on Monday, giving up seven runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings, and although he didn’t factor in the decision, Boston lost 11-9 by allowing four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Take away one strong outing against Toronto (one run allowed in seven innings of a 6-1 home win), and Matsuzaka has surrendered 18 runs in his three other starts over 14 2/3 innings (11.05 ERA) since coming off the disabled list at the beginning of this month.
The Red Sox are still 38-16 in Matsuzaka’s last 54 starts overall, 17-7 in his last 24 on the road and 10-4 in his last 14 Saturday efforts. He’s also 0-1 with a 12.54 ERA in two road games this year, and in his lone career start against the Phillies last June, he gave up four runs on seven hits in four innings, but Boston prevailed 11-6.
Kendrick has turned things around lately, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts (all Phillies wins). On Monday, he limited the Pirates to two runs in eight innings, rolling to a 12-2 victory. He’s still just 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four home games this season, but in his last two he allowed just two runs in 15 innings in wins over Pittsburgh and St. Louis (4-0). Going back to last year, Philadelphia has won five of Kendrick’s last six home outings.
Kendrick lasted just three innings in his only career start against Boston back in 2008, getting rocked for six runs on six hits and two walks in a 7-4 home loss. Throw in a poor relief outing last year – he gave up three runs in two innings of a 5-2, 12-inning defeat – and the right-hander is 0-2 with a 16.20 ERA versus the Red Sox.
The Sox are riding “over” streaks of 9-3-2 in the second game of a series, 7-0 on Saturday and 4-1 when Dice-K pitches away from Fenway. Also, the Phillies are on “over” runs of 4-1 in interleague play (all vs. the A.L. East), 4-2 when hosting A.L. teams, 9-4 on Saturday, 16-6 behind Kendrick overall, 4-1 when Kendrick starts on Saturday and 4-1 when he pitches against the A.L.
Finally, the over has cashed in eight of the last 12 Phillies-Red Sox battles overall and six of the last nine meetings at Citizens Bank. However, Friday’s series opener stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Detroit (24-18) at L.A. Dodgers (24-18)
The surging Dodgers send rookie John Ely (2-1, 3.51 ERA) to the mound for his fourth big-league start, while the Tigers counter with Armando Galarraga (1-0, 1.59) as these teams continue their three-game interleague series at Dodger Stadium.
Behind an outstanding effort from Chad Billingsley and two relievers, Los Angeles held the Tigers to just a run and four hits in Friday’s series opener and prevailed 4-1. The Dodgers are have won 10 of their last 11 and 11 of their last 13, going 7-2 at home during this span, stretching their record to 14-7 at Dodger Stadium. On top of that, L.A. is on upticks of 13-3 against right-handed starters, 20-6 versus righties at home, 28-11 on Saturday and 4-0 in the second game of a series.
That said, Joe Torre’s squad has been a disaster in interleague play the last few years, going 30-52 in the last 82 overall and 6-21 in the last 26 against the A.L. Central.
The Tigers are still 7-4 in their last 11 games, but they’ve now lost five of six on the road and seven of nine in National League ballparks. On the positive end Jim Leyland’s club is on impressive runs of 4-0 on Saturday, 53-24 in interleague action, 6-3 versus the N.L. West and 42-20 when facing right-handed starters in interleague play.
These teams met two years ago in Motown, and Detroit swept a three-game series, outscoring Los Angeles 22-11. Prior to that, the Dodgers had won five of six from the Tigers in two series in 2003 (road) and 2005 (home).
Galarraga lost a competition for the Tigers’ No. 5 spot in the rotation in spring training, but he returned from Triple-A on Sunday and rolled to a 5-1 home win over the Red Sox, giving up just one run on three hits and three walks in 5 2/3 innings. It was the right-hander’s first big-league start since Sept. 5 of last year.
Going back to last season, the Tigers are 3-7 in Galarraga’s last 10 starts overall, 4-10 in his last 14 road contests and 1-4 in his last five on Saturday. However, they’re 6-2 behind Galarraga when he pitches against the National League. That includes a 5-0 win over the Dodgers in 2008, with Galarraga scattering three hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings.
Ely went a career-high seven innings against Houston on Monday, allowing just two hits and five walks in cruising to a 6-2 victory. Since a disappointing big-league debut at the Mets on April 28 (five runs, six hits, three walks in six innings of a 7-3 loss), Ely has gone 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in three starts, yielding just five runs in 19 2/3 innings. The Dodgers won all three games, with the 24-year-old right-hander posting a 21-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In two home starts, Ely is 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA.
Detroit carries a slew of “under” trends, including 8-2-1 overall, 15-6-1 in N.L. parks and 16-5-1 against the N.L. West, and with Galarraga starting, the “under” is on runs of 8-3 overall, 9-3 on the road and 4-0 against the N.L. West.
For Los Angeles, the under has hit in four straight Saturday contests, 12 of 17 interleague home games, six straight against the A.L. Central and seven of 10 against right-handed starters. However, the over is 8-4 in its last 12 at Dodger Stadium, and all four of Ely’s big-league starts have climbed over the total.
Lastly, these teams have stayed under the total in seven of 10 meetings since 2003, including four of the last five.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
When the Dodgers send rookie surprise John Ely to the mound against Armando Galaragga and the Tigers in Game Two of this Interleague battle this evening they will do so knowing Ely is 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his MLB career home team starts. He's also in terrific KW form with zero walks and 21 strikeouts in his last three starts. With Galarraga just 4-10 in his last 14 road team starts in May, look for Ely to make it four wins in a row here today.
Matt Fargo
Florida Marlins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Florida Marlins
Chicago won this opener last night but that is where it ends. The White Sox were supposed to make some noise in the American League Central but they have done anything but. Chicago is seven games under .500 and it has not been because of just one or two bad stretches as the entire season has been inconsistent. The White Sox have won back-to-back games only three times all season long which is a sign of very inconsistent play. Florida meanwhile has been playing better as it has won eight of its last 12 and the Marlins are 10-11 away from home which isn’t horrible. They have a big edge in pitching today with Chris Volstad. He has a 4.29 Era on the season but it is that high because of one really bad start where he allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings at Colorado. Take that away and his ERA drops to 3.33 in his other seven outings. Even with that start included, his season WHIP is a very solid 1.21. On the other side, Gavin Floyd is having a miserable season and there seems to be no end in sight. He has six non-quality outings in his eight starts on the year including three straight. He has a 7.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP which are both off the charts. In his last start, even though he gave up just the one walk, Floyd only threw 61 of his 102 pitches for strikes. The White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Marlins avenge that loss last night with a big effort this afternoon. 3* Florida Marlins
Charlie Scott
Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Colorado Rockies
Rockies pitcher Francis should be in better form Today, coming off his first start of the season with 5 days rest. The Rockies are the superior team in this matchup, are coming off a Friday loss, and at a decent price vs a KC team with limited talent and payroll.
Craig Trapp
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Are you kidding me getting even money on a hot team verse a team with a 6 game losing streak. Cueto is going for the Reds coming off three great pitching outings going 3-0 with only a 2.00 ERA. Carmona goes for the Indians and lately he has been pitching well but his pitch count has been an issue. Look for Cormona to only go 6 innings while giving up only 2 runs. The bullpen for CLE has been one of the worst and the Reds super hot bats will once again take advantage of this beat up Indians team. Enjoy the value and easy winner.
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Tampa Bay may have been flat in Houston on Friday making the cross country trip after taking a pair in New York form the Yankees. Tonight they should be much more focused of their 2-1 loss. Tampa is 20-6 vs losing teams, 8-1 as a road favorite in this range and 17-5 on grass. Houston is just 1-6 as a home dog in this range and are hitting a paltry .230 over the past 7 games while averaging a shade over 2 runs. In the pitching match up the Rays have the edge with road warrior J.Niemann. Once again this year Niemann has been solid on the road as the Rays have won all 4 of his away starts. Niemann has a solid 2.22 road era. Houston counters with Wandy Rodriguez tonight. W-Rod has been a solid home pitcher in past years. However this season he has an elevated 4.76 home era. This game will be no easy task. Look for the Rays to get back on track tonight.
David Chan
Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Chicago Cubs
Take the Cubs and Randy Wells as a live dog against the Rangers and Derek Holland.
Derek Holland looked great in AAA, and his headline stats in two major-league starts are nice. Still, the first start (vs. Oakland: 6 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 7 K, 1 BB) was a lot better than the second (vs. the Angels: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB). Holland shouldn’t be a -140-type favorite here when the Rangers didn’t think enough of him to make him a starter coming out of camp.
Cubs’ starter Randy Wells has been competent if not dominant this year, but he’s coming off back-to-back quality starts against the Marlins and Rockies—games in which he only walked one batter in each. He hasn’t gotten himself in trouble all year via the free pass (10 BB in 48 IP), so he gives himself and his team every chance against the Rangers.
No promises but the Cubs have an even shot at winning here. Getting a nice piece of plus money, that’s all we can ask for.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -152
Wells is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts and his struggles figure to continue this evening against a Rangers club that is hitting .296 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at home this season. The Rangers send their southpaw Holland to the hill and he figures to have an excellent opportunity to build on his 2-0 start (2.38 ERA) as the Cubs are hitting just .265 and scoring only 3.8 runs per game against lefty starters. The Cubs have really struggled in interleague play. In fact, they are 3-13 in their last 16 interleague road games and 5-21 in their last 26 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-8 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record as well. The Rangers are 6-1 in Holland's last 7 starts as a home favorite and they have taken 5 of their last 6 from the Cubs. In addition, they are now 18-5 in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take Texas.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +1.32 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals scored nine times in the first three innings, Brad Penny hit a grand slam and thus, Joel Pineiro was yanked. The Cards did not score again and they had just two hits the rest of the way and that’s the Cardinals team that we’ve all been accustomed to seeing over the past while. As a team over the last 14 games, the Cards are batting .239. The Angels still scored five times yesterday and should put up at least that again today against Kyle Lohse. From 2001 to 2007, Lohse pitched for the Twins and he was complete garbage then and he’s certainly no better now. Two starts ago the Astros got to him for nine runs in five innings. Overall this year the NL is hitting .313 against him and his WHIP of 1.61 is plenty proof that he’s a big inning waiting to happen. Lohse is also living proof of how out of whack major league salaries have become. Here’s a guy that was drafted in the 29th round or 862nd in 1996. This year he’ll earn over 9M. Scott Kazmir is not having a great year but he’s showing signs of coming around. He was solid in his last start in Texas in which he went seven full and allowed four runs. He’s only allowed one jack over his last four starts and a close look reveals that he just might have the toughest schedule to date. His seven starts have come against the Yanks twice, Detroit twice, Boston, Tampa Bay and Texas, in Arlington. Kazmir takes a huge step down in class when facing these feeble hitting Cardinals and no matter how you break this one down it’s an overlay. Play: L.A. Angels +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO –1½ +1.64 over Florida
Now that the dust has somewhat settled in the Hanley Ramirez debacle the ashes from that may have not. The Marlins or the NL or both may be just what the South Side needed to get right-sided. They beat the Marlins 8-0 yesterday and today they’ll face Chris Volstad. Volstad has been very hittable of late and with the exception of one start against the slumping Nationals, he hasn’t missed many bats all year, especially on the road. In fact, Volstad come in here with a 6.17 road ERA and in 23 frames he’s walked 10 and struck out 11. He has a high flyball rate and one remarkable stat that sticks out is that he has not induced a single batter to pop up in the infield. All his flyballs have been to the outfield and that suggests somebody is going deep today and it could be more than one. Gavin Floyd is having a bad year but he’s pitching much better than his numbers suggest. Floyd has the ability to go deep into games and could very well follow Mark Buerhle’s great start yesterday with one of his own. When Floyd is throwing strikes he’s tough as shoe leather and there’s a very good start coming soon in that arm of his. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.31 over WASHINGTON
A lot of bad pitchers are having success against the Nationals right now and that includes David Hernandez last night. The Nats have also stumbled recently against Kyle Lohse, Jeff Francis, who was coming off a 1½-year layoff, career minor leaguer R.A. Dickey and career mop-up man Raul Valdes, who replaced John Maine after Maine faced one batter. Furthermore, the Nats have lost seven of its last eight and it’s not like Craig Stammen is going to fool anyone. Stammen somehow manages to stick around despite limited skills. He does not strike out many and the Orioles bats are slowly but surely coming to life. In fact, the O’s are among the top five in the AL in team batting average this month and they’ve also gone 5-5 over its last 10. Brad Bergeson is similar to Stammen in that he won’t strike out many but he’s induced 11, 15, 15 and 14 ground balls in four starts since being recalled. A 58% groundball rate has a way of getting you out of jams and when a team is going bad like the Nats you can almost be guaranteed that one or more players will bit into a DP. Lastly, the AL vs NL angle has always been a good one and if Hernandez could beat Olsen last night there’s no reason why Bergeson and the O’s can’t beat Stammen and the Nats again. Play: Baltimore +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
EZWINNERS
Atlanta Braves -144
The Pirates send their struggling pitcher Charlie Morton to the mound for this start against the Braves. Morton gave up six or more runs for the third time this season on Monday when he allowed the Phillies to score six runs in only four innings of work. Morton has not lasted longer than six innings this season and he now has a ERA of 9.68 for the season. The Braves starting pitcher Derek Lowe has not had a great season so far, but I expect him to pitch well today against a Pittsburgh team that he has dominated in his career. In seven career starts against the Pirates, Lowe is a perfect 7-0 with an ERA of only 2.89. Look for another solid performance from Lowe in this game and I expect the Braves bats to get hot against Morton who is one of the worst starting pitchers in major league baseball. Play on Atlanta.
James Patrick Sports
Toronto - Arizona Over
Toronto is (6-1) ATS Over the Total against the National League West with the Diamondbacks Over the Total (8-3) ATS in their past (11) Inter-League games and (7-3) ATS in Saturday action.
Chris Jordan
I'm listing only Scott Kazmir in this game, though I am taking the Cardinals to get it done. Quite frankly, I don't care who goes for the Redbirds today, as they boast the National League's lowest ERA. St. Louis' 2.91 ERA by its starters trails only Tampa Bay's 2.61.
Today the Cardinals send Kyle Lohse to the bump, and he is 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA in 35 starts at Busch Stadium since joining the Cardinals in 2008.
But let's talk about Kazmir, who has lost three consecutive starts with a 7.71 ERA after giving up four runs over seven innings in a 4-3 loss at Texas on Monday. With the loss, Kazmir has allowed four or more runs for the fourth time in seven starts this season.
So far this season, Kazmir is 0-3 with a 7.59 ERA in road starts, and against the National League, Kazmir owns a lifetime 4.83 ERA in 13 starts.
The Cardinals' bats come alive, and they roll to another win over the Halos.
3♦ CARDINALS
Bobby Maxwell
I'm on a 99-78-3 run with my FREE plays and I've got an interlegue winner here for you as I go with the Giants in Oakland against the A's.
This Bay Area rivalry continues today and I love San Francisco’s Matt Cain in this matchup as he has had very good stuff when he’s faced the A’s in his career. I’ll play the Giants with him on the hill today!
Cain has started six times against the A’s in his career, and while he’s just 2-4, he’s got an outstanding ERA of 2.89 and he’s got two complete games and one shutout against them, allowing just 14 runs in 43.2 innings. The problem has been the offense hasn’t shown up a lot when he faces the A’s.
Cain has a complete-game shutout in Oakland Coliseum and he’s allowed three runs in 15.1 innings with a 1.76 ERA in two games. He has been delivered solid outings here lately, limiting five of his last six opponents to two runs or less. Last time out, on Monday, he gave up two runs on six hits over six innings but lost in San Diego 3-1.
Gio Gonzalez goes for the A’s and he’s been knocked around a bit lately, giving up 10 runs on 16 hits in his last 18 innings of work as Oakland is 1-2 in those three contests. He’s allowed three runs or more in three of his last four home starts and he’s just 2-2 with a 3.91 ERA at home.
Gonzalez has one career start against the Giants and he got shelled, allowing six runs (four earned) in 3/2 innings of an ugly loss. His ERA at home in his career is 5.94 and he’s given up 88 hits in 86.1 innings of action.
San Francisco has won seven of the last nine meetings with the A’s and have taken four of the last six in Oakland. Go with the Giants today as they continue to dominate their cross-bay rivals.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Stephen Nover
The Athletics defeated the Giants last night for only the second time in the team's last nine meetings.
Look for the Giants to bounce back today with a pitching matchup of Matt Cain vs. Gio Gonzalez.
Cain is a very good pitcher. He is 40-8 when the Giants score three or more runs for him.
Gonzalez has yielded at least three runs in each of his past three starts. He faced the Giants last year and gave up six runs, 10 hits and two walks in 3 2/3 innings.
The Giants should get a boost as starting shortstop Edger Renteria is expected to be activated from the disabled list today.
3♦ GIANTS
Chuck O'Brien
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes from the Bay Area as we’ll play the A’s over the Giants.
Young lefty Gio Gonzalez has been solid over the past month, pitching at least into the seventh inning in four of his last five starts while allowing a total of eight runs in 27 2/3 innings in those four particular games (2.60 ERA). And if you toss out his home debut against the mighty Yankees (five runs allowed in 4 1/3 innings), Gonzalez surrendered just six runs in his three ensuing home starts, going exactly seven innings in all three games (2.57 ERA).
So why aren’t Gonzalez and the A’s a significant favorite today? Because the Giants are going with right-hander Matt Cain, a former All-Star whose stuff is as nasty as any pitcher in baseball. Problem is Cain has had difficult harnessing that great stuff lately; over his last two starts (both against the weak-hitting Padres, he’s allowed 11 walks (while striking out just eight) in 12 2/3 innings.
San Francisco lost both games to the Padres and is now 2-5 in his last seven starts. Then again, it’s not like it’s all Cain’s fault. San Francisco has scored 1, 2, 0 and 2 runs in his last four losses – the same lack of run support that plagued Cain for years prior to last season. To that point, Cain has faced the A’s six times in his career, and he’s delivered five quality starts. And yet the Giants are just 2-4 in those six games, scoring a total of six runs in the four defeats.
Throw in the fact that Oakland – which pounded the Giants last night – has been solid at home this year (16-9 overall, 10-5 last 15) while San Francisco has struggled on the road (9-11 overall, 2-6 last eight), and I’ll take a shot with the A’s here.
3♦ OAKLAND