Karl Garrett
Every once in a while you have to go against the grain when looking at statistics, and play a hunch.
Tonight my hunch is that Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey are going to get nicked up in the Subway Series between the Yankees and Mets, and we are going to see an over at Citi Field.
Last night's game stayed way under the total, but it should be noted that the Yankees are still on a 6-3 under clip their last 9 interleague road games.
As for the Mets, 7 of their last 9 games in Queens overall have still landed on the upside.
Hughes was finally hit hard in his last start, as the Red Sox reached him for 5 runs in his 5 innings of work against them, and I see him giving up a few more tonight.
Pelfrey's last 2 starts at home show 7 earned run allowed in 13 innings of work.
G-Man looks for the bats to do some damage in the middle game of this weekend set.
Take the over.
1♦ OVER
Brett Atkins
I've got a free winner coming today as I go with the Giants taking on their Bay Area rivals from Oakland.
I’m going with the Giants over the A’s in this heated interleague rivalry as San Francisco has Matt Cain on the hill today and he’s been tough to hit for Oakland in the last few years.
Cain has six career starts against the A’s and while he’s 2-4, his ERA is a stellar 2.89 and he has two complete games and one shutout against them, giving up 14 runs in 43.2 innings.
In Oakland, Cain threw his complete-game shutout and in 15.1 innings he’s allowed just three runs and has a 1.76 ERA. Lately, Cain has found his form, limiting the five of the last six foes to two runs or less, including Monday when he held the Padres to two runs on six hits in six innings but lost 3-1.
San Francisco has won seven of the last nine meetings with their rivals and have won four of six in Oakland. I’ll play the Giants with Cain on the hill in this one.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Joel Tyson
Gonna look for Jeff Francis to make up for some lost time when he hits the mound at Kauffman Stadium this Saturday afternoon.
Francis earned a no decision in his first start of the season 5 days ago, working 7 innings of 1 run ball with 6 strikeouts along the way. He should have no problems with this KC lineup, and the Rockies should have no problems getting things started against Royals starter Kyle Davies.
Davies is 1-1 his last 3 starts, but the team has lost 2 of those starts, and Davies ERA is starting to escolate at 7.80 over those 3 starts.
Kansas City may have won last night, but they are just 4-8 their last 12 when facing the National League, while Colorado is still a profitable 11-4 their last 15 IL games.
Go with Francis and the Rockies.
3♦ COLORADO
Jay McNeil
Detroit at Los Angeles
The Dodgers have now won 11 of 12 and have successfully made the run from last-to-first in the National League West, as they're tied with San Diego atop the division.
I'm listing John Ely only, who appears to be a strike-throwing machine. He hasn't issued one walk to any of the last 84 batters he's faced.
He has raised his level of competition since arriving on the scene, and doesn't seem fazed by any of the opponents. Though he doesn't throw hard, but he's refined the subtle skills of pitching, such as command and composure when he's toeing the slab.
Look for him to dominate the Tigers tonight.
2♦ DODGERS
Jeff Benton
I’ve hit eight of my last 11 free plays, and I’m on additional runs of 78-45-2 and 39-23 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, I’ll back the Reds in a virtual pick-em spot at Cleveland.
All about Cincinnati right-hander Johnny Cueto in this one. After a rough start to the season, the hard-throwing right-hander has settled into nice groove, going 3-0 with 2.00 ERA in his last four starts (all Reds wins). Over this four-start stretch, he’s surrendered just 20 hits and four walks while striking out 26 in 27 innings, and that includes a pair of strong road performances at St. Louis (3-2 win) and Pittsburgh (9-0 win).
And check out what Cueto has done in three career starts against the Indians the past two years: six runs (five earned) surrendered in 19 1/3 innings (2.33 ERA), and Cincinnati won all three games. The Indians’ batting average against Cueto? .203.
Although Cincinnati suffered two heartbreaking losses in Atlanta in the middle of this week, it bounced back with Friday’s 7-4 win over the Indians and is now on a 17-7 overall roll (8-4 on the road) going back to April 25. Meanwhile, the Indians are now 15-25 on the season (6-11 at home). Also, the Tribe have not fared well against their instate rivals recently, losing 11 of the last 14 meetings with the Reds, including five of the last six in Cleveland.
6♦ CINCINNATI REDS
JIM FEIST
RAYS / ASTROS
TAKE UNDER
Tampa Bay has a dynamite pitching staff and an athletic defense in the field. They face a Houston offense that is dead last in the NL in runs scored. Tampa Bay starter Jeff Niemann has been terrific, an under the radar pitcher with a 3-0 record and a 2.54 ERA. His last three starts: 2-0 mark, 2.21 ERA. Houston goes with lefty Wandy Rodriguez, who is throwing better. The Rays have been a strong team under the total the last three weeks, including a 9-1-1 run under the total. Can't see many runs in this one, Play the Rays/Astros Under the total.
Jr. O'Donnell
HOUSTON ASTROS + 141
JR O has the moxie to stand in front of the 30-12 Tampa Devil Rays tonight as were going UGLY and cashing the 15-27 Houston Astros and Wandy Rodriguez (2-5, 4.30 ERA). This is a huge JR O GUT PLAY as we will not be the popular side @ Minute Maid park. The Rays & 3-0 J Niehmenn are the public darling as the betting public has seen a super 25-11 Inter-league mark the last 2 seasons. That pure fact and in our opinion a real cheap line on the Tampa Rays will have us going the other way with the Stros. These pesky Astros are not afraid of this role as they are a nice 5-1 in as a Dog with Wandy and 10-3 the 13 home with Wandy R.
BIG AL
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
Last night, we had a big play on the 'under' 8 runs in the Braves/Buccos game, and we were rewarded with a 7-0 Atlanta victory. Today, we'll switch gears and look for a much-higher scoring game. We are well aware that both Derek Lowe and Charlie Morton have had great success vs. their respective opponents in their careers. Lowe is 7-0 since 1997 vs. Pittsburgh with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. And Morton's ERA in his starts vs. Atlanta is 0.00. Still, neither pitcher comes into this game in good, current form. Lowe has a 5.47 ERA, which dips to 5.96 on the road (with a horrid 1.72 WHIP). And Morton's ERA this year is even worse: 9.68, with a 1.75 WHIP. The Braves have sailed 'over' the total in eight of their last 12 games, and Lowe has gone 'over' the total in 47 of 75 as a road favorite. Throw in the fact that the Bucs are 100-68 'over' the total in home games after failing to score 2+ runs in their previous outing, and we have all the ammunition we need to make this play. Take Atlanta and Pittsburgh 'over' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Play on: Over
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies won the opener last night over the Boston Red Sox 5-1 behind the arm of Cole Hamels. Tonight they will do the same with right-hander Kyle Kendrick. The young righty has looked very good in his last three starts with an ERA of 2.57 as Philadelphia won all three games. His counterpart tonight Daisuke Matsuzaka has not been good. The Red Sox are 0-2 when he pitches away from home. He has allowed 14 runs in less than 10 innings of work in those starts. Dice-K is 0-7 when following up a team loss. The Phillies on the other hand are 9-1 after two or more consecutive unders. Go with the Phillies.
Play on: Philadelphia Phillies
Rocketman
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Detroit is 8-28 last 3 years as a road underdog of +125 to +150. LA Dodgers is a very good 15-4 in May this year. LA Dodgers is 4-0 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. LA Dodgers are scoring 5.8 runs per game against right handed starters this year. John Ely is 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA overall this year, 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA at home this season and 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight!
Ben Burns
Giants at Athletics
Prediction: Under
With yesterday's game slipping below the number, the 'Under' is now 14-4-1 the last 19 times that the Giants and A's faced each other. With Matt Cain and Gio Gonzalez projected to get the call, this afternoon's game has a solid shot at producing another low-scoring affair.
Cain may be only 2-3 on the year but he's pitched a lot better than that record indicates. He almost always goes at least six full innings and he's allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his eight starts.
While Cain has been a little wild the last couple of games, he's always pitched well against the A's. In six starts against Oakland, he's got a 2.89 ERA. Four of those six games stayed below the total and five of six finished with eight runs or less. Can delivered a quality start in five of those six games, including four straight. Note that Cain went the distance while dominating the A's in last season's lone start against them. Through nine complete innings, he allowed just a single run.
With this slated to be a day game, note that opposing hitters are batting just .189 against Cain during the afternoon this season. Also, note that the A's haven't hit particularly well during the day and that they've seen the 'under' go 10-4-1 during their afternoon games.
Gio Gonzalez isn't nearly as well known as Cain. He's very capable though. I won with him in his last start (against Seattle on May 17) and watched him pitch seven strong innings. The A's young southpaw has a good attitude and he should be fired up to go head-to-head vs. Cain.
Gonzalez was recently quoted as saying "I want to be in the same pack as the other pitchers where you say whoever pitches we have a chance to win. I like that kind of confidence and I want to bust my tail off for this team because of it."
It should also be noted that Gonzalez is 2-0 with a dominating 1.32 ERA in his two daytime starts. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .163 against him in those games. Given those stats, don't be surprised if this one turns into a pitcher's duel. Consider the Under
Tom Freese
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati starter Johnny Cueto has 23 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last 3 starts. The Reds are 10-3 their last 13 games. Cueto is 6-2 in his last 8 road starts. Cincinnati is 5-0 their last 5 games as favorites and they are 10-1 when their opponent allowed 5 or more runs in their last game. The Reds are 5-1 their last 6 meetings in Cleveland. The Indians starter Fausto Carmona is 2-7 his last 9 starts as an underdog and they are 1-8 their last 9 home game. The Indians are their last 7 Interleague home games and they are 0-6 vs. their last 6 Interleague vs. a team with winning record. PLAY ON CINCINNATI
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -152
Wells is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts and his struggles figure to continue this evening against a Rangers club that is hitting .296 and scoring 5.8 runs per game at home this season. The Rangers send their southpaw Holland to the hill and he figures to have an excellent opportunity to build on his 2-0 start (2.38 ERA) as the Cubs are hitting just .265 and scoring only 3.8 runs per game against lefty starters. The Cubs have really struggled in interleague play. In fact, they are 3-13 in their last 16 interleague road games and 5-21 in their last 26 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-8 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record as well. The Rangers are 6-1 in Holland's last 7 starts as a home favorite and they have taken 5 of their last 6 from the Cubs. In addition, they are now 18-5 in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take Texas.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Reds/Indians UNDER 8.5
Expect a low-scoring affair with a pair of low-ERA hurlers on the hill tonight. Cueto has a 3.67 ERA on the season, and that number falls to 3.37 on the road. Plus, he has been nearly unhittable lately, posting a 1.64 ERA over his last 3 starts. Carmona has an ERA of 3.33 on the season, and that number is down to just 2.00 over his last 3 starts. In addition, both of these starters have had success against the opposition. Cueto has a 2.33 ERA in 3 career starts against Cleveland and Carmona has a 1.23 after 1 start against the Reds. The Under is 4-0 in Carmona's last 4 interleague starts and 5-2 in Cueto's last 7 interleague starts. We'll take the Under this evening.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -157
Look for the Rays to bounce back strong this evening behind Niemann, who's 3-0 (4-0 on the money line) on the road with an ERA of just 2.22. Rodriguez hasn't been nearly as good for Houston as he is just 2-5 on the season with a 4.30 ERA and that number is on the rise over his last 3 starts (5.51). Plus, Houston is batting just .225 and scoring only 2.9 runs per game against righty starters while Tampa Bay is batting .249 and scoring 5.6 runs per game against lefties. Take the Rays.