Nelly
Kansas City + over Colorado
While Trey Hillman can't be blamed for many of the problems in Kansas City, his release has proved to be the right move so far, providing a boost that has this team climbing in the standings. Kansas City is 6-2 since the move and the offense has scored 48 runs in those eight games. The Royals have been strong batting average team all season but now the Royals are capitalizing on opportunities, currently hitting .292 over the last ten games. The Rockies continue to be one of the most disappointing teams in baseball even with Ubaldo Jimenez off to an 8-1 start. The Rockies have lost four of the last five games and this team is simply not scoring runs. Colorado has been held to four or fewer runs in seven straight games and Kansas City has now won five straight in this match-up. The Royals are 5-3 behind Kyle Davies this season and outside of one awful start in Texas he has delivered great results this season. In home games he owns a 2.65 ERA and while the overall numbers are marginal the Royals bullpen has been sharp of late with a 3.34 ERA over the last ten games. Jeff Francis returned to action last week with seven innings of one run ball against the Nationals. It was his first start since September of 2008 and while the final line looked strong he did allow a lot of runners on base. Francis will likely take some time to get back to form and facing this hot Royals team could be a tough match-up. The Colorado bullpen has also been beset by injuries and has struggled with a 6.00 ERA in the last ten games. The road struggles also continue for Colorado with a 9-14 record away from home on the year. Look for the Royals to stay hot and the American League to deliver another win.
Dan Bebe
MIN (-130) vs MIL
I realize this is a heavy price to pay when you've got Yovani Gallardo on the mount, but the Brewers are simply a mess right now, and the other way to look at this game is that this is one of the cheapest prices we'll see the Twins, at home, against a bad team, so we're jumping on it.
The reasons are numerous, but we'll try to keep things brief.
One simple reason to play the Twins is that the Brewers are playing some downright horrid baseball. They finally snapped an extended losing skid in Pittsburgh with a 4-3 win, then came to Minnesota and got blasted last night, 15-3. They're not hitting, having not scored more than 4 runs in a game since May 15, and they're not pitching either, having allowed 9 runs or more in 5 of the last 10 games. The Milwaukee bullpen is all kinds of awful, with the back end potentially the weakest link, and the confidence level of this team is completely shot. You can see it in the body language - when they get behind by more than a couple runs, they throw in the towel, and when they're leading, it's almost like they expect the worst. That's a bad way to play the game.
Today, Kevin Slowey might look like a good time to fade Minnesota, but not against the Brewers. In fact, Slowey, a true 5th starter in talent, has pitched like an ace against Milwaukee. He's 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA against the Brewers, and he's been especially good against Milwaukee's top offensive threats.
Ryan Braun is just 2-for-13 off Slowey; Prince Fielder is 2-for-11; Craig Counsell is 2-for-9; Rickie Weeks is 0-for-4; Corey Hart is just 3-for-14. It's almost remarkable that one mid/low-tier righthander with a fastball that generally tops out around 90mph can shut down Milwaukee's best, who bat from both sides of the plate.
Slowey is your trademark strike-thrower, which is Minnesota's bread and butter, and with that defense behind him, I expect another quality start today.
Gallardo, who has truly been a bright spot for the Brewers, will definitely have his hands full with Minnesota's skilled lefthanded bats. Jason Kubel is finally heating up, as well, and that just creates one more problem for an opposing righty. I think Gallardo pitches relatively well, but I think Minnesota has the edge when the starters depart. And even if we're off by a hair and this thing is tied, or Minny is down by a run, we've got a great, great shot against the Brewers sagging bullpen.
This is a tremendous price to get a team that simply wins at home against a team that simply loses everywhere.
Play the Twinkies!
Triple Threat Sports
Seattle over San Diego
Yesterday's big win for the M's - with ace Cliff Lee on the mound - makes it two wins in the row for the Mariners. The fact that they hammered Wade LeBlanc in that game also has to give the previously slumbering offense some confidence. This one is a Pick'em and we look for Seattle to make it three in a row.
Stan Lisowski
REDS
Cincy has won 5 of 7 in Cleveland. The visitor is 6-2 in Carmona’s starts this year. Indians are 9-18 against right-handed starters and 11-26 in interleague play.
Red Dog Sports
Florida at Chicago
Play Over 9
Florida was shut out last night by 8-0 but have played 24 overs, 10 unders and 6 pushes in their last 40 Interleague games. Gavin Floyd, who starts for Chicago, has an ERA of 7.71 in his last 3 starts and has allowed 5,5,6,1,5,7 and 4 runs in his last seven outings. Volstad starts for Florida and his ERA is 4.29. I think we see a game that reaches 10 or more today.
Jimmy Moore
Philadelphia @ Montreal
Pick: Philadelphia +110
The Flyers were overwhelmed by Montreal in game 3 but that will be a great wake up call for them. Look for Leighton to bounce back with a good game after looking human in game 3. Montreal has used up thier good fortune in this playoffs and the Flyers are very motivated to get the win coming off of a bad loss in game 3.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -140
Scott Kazmir does not have it this season. He's 2-4 with a 6.51 ERA (0-3 with a 7.72 over his last three starts). It's no wonder as he works on a new delivery. He's opposed by Kyle Lohse who has posted a 3.19 ERA at home. And, he's 13-1 at home in his career vs. AL teams that bat .255 or worse (LA is batting .249). The Angels are just 8-13 on the road while the Cards are 14-7 here at home. I like the Cardinals to get it done here at home.
Sac Lawson
FLA (+115) vs CWS
Chris Volstad is still nothing spectacular, but he's also still very young. I don't expect him to carry the world on his shoulders this afternoon, but coming off three starts where he didn't exceed 95 pitches means that the kid is completely fresh, and the Sox lineup has the unfortunate task of facing a fresh starter that they've never seen before. Never an easy spot.
On the other side, you've gotta wonder how the Marlins bats will bounce back off last night's terrible performance. Although they haven't been shutout all season, until last night, they have had a number of games where they scored just 1 run. And interestingly enough, every single game following a 1 run game they scored at least 4 runs. Point being, this is a team that doesn't stay ice cold for games at a time.
On top of that, Floyd has been giving up home runs like a machine! If this Marlins lineup can get Floyd to continue to leave balls up in the zone, it'll be a jack-fest out there. I do expect Floyd to improve sometime in the near future, but he's catching the marlins in an unfortunate spot, and there is no way he can back up what Buerhle did last night. The odd thing is, I truly believe the Sox are making a huge mistake by putting Floyd after Buerhle in the rotation. They both have the exact same style, so you're basically allowing a team to see the same pitches two days in a row, and by the second day, they're surely ready to erupt. Unfortunate for Floyd, indeed.
Let's go Marlins 1 unit!
Michael Alexander
Magic vs. Celtics
Play: Under 190
The Celtics look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals in Game 3 versus the Orlando Magic. The Celtics, the surpise teams in the playoffs, beat the Miami Heat in the first round, and the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the conference semis. They have gotten this far by playing tight defense. In fact, they're playing better defense than they did during the long regular season. Rasheed Wallace has become a contributor off the bench finally and doing what the Celtics originally signed him to do. Point guard Rajon Rondo is playing well at both ends and Kevin Garnett has contributed with the strong play.
So far this year the point totals have been low in their regular-season match-ups and it looks to be continueing in their playoff matchup.
SUPPORTING TRENDS: ORLANDO is 19-8 UNDER (+10.2 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. ORLANDO is 13-5 UNDER (+7.5 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season. BOSTON is 35-21 UNDER (+11.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
I don't see a lot of scoring in this one. Take the UNDER
John Ryan
LAA Angels vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: LAA Angels
5* graded play on he Cardinals as they host Anaheim in inter-league play set to start at 2:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Cardinals will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 40-7 making 31.4 units since 2004. Play against AL road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 with a low on-base percentage <=.320 and with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season facing a team with a good bullpen posting a WHIP <=1.350. Cardinals certainly have a strong bullpen and Anaheim has not done well this season sporting a 1-8 record when facing a bullpen posting an ERA of 3.00 or less. Cards starter Lohse is a solid 13-1 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. Take the Cardinals.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Braves -150
Atlanta is playing their best baseball of the season right now. The Braves have won four straight and are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall. They are scoring 6.7 RPG over their last 6 games and their bats should stay red hot Saturday against Pirates' starter Charlie Morton. This guy has been one of the worst starters in the league all season. Morton is 1-7 with a 9.68 ERA and 1.755 WHIP, allowing 38 earned runs and 62 base runners in 35.1 innings. Morton has served up 8 home runs in 8 starts, and he would not start for most teams in the majors.
Derek Lowe is a perfect 7-0 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in seven career starts vs. Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 6-24 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 9-0 in their last 9 vs. National League Central opponents. The Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Braves Saturday.
Info Plays
3* on St. Louis Cardinals -138
Reasons why the Cards win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (LA ANGELS) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. This is a 40-7 ML System hitting 85.1% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +31.4 units. This system is a perfect 5-0 this season. Bet the Cardinals at home.
Black Widow
1* on Orioles/Nationals OVER 9
We have two below average starters going Saturday in Washington. Bradley Bergesen gets the start for the Baltimore Orioles, coming into this game 3-3 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.678 WHIP. Craig Stammen gets the ball for the Nationals, going 1-2 with a 5.86 ERA this season for Washington. The OVER is 4-0 in Bergesens last 4 interleague starts. The OVER is 5-1 in Bergesens last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is 4-0 in Stammens last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. We fully expect double-digit runs by game's end in this one. Take the OVER 9 runs here.