Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, May 25

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
The Pirates look to bounce back from their 2-1 loss to the Brewers yesterday and build on their 11-1 record in their last 12 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105)

Game 901-902: Colorado at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 16.394; San Francisco (Zito) 14.357
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Over

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 14.797; Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.497
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-160); Under

Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.004; Milwaukee (Fiers) 13.989
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over

Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Washington (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Pettibone) 14.710; Washington (Haren) 16.231
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Under

Game 909-910: St. Louis at LA Dodgers (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Gast) 16.502; LA Dodgers (Lilly) 14.531
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over

Game 911-912: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 14.829; NY Mets (Gee) 15.220
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+140); Under

Game 913-914: San Diego at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 14.897; Arizona (Miley) 16.229
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-135); Under

Game 915-916: Baltimore at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Garcia) 16.221; Toronto (Dickey) 15.395
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130); Over

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.126; Boston (Lester) 16.646
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-210); Under

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Buckner) 16.142; Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.405
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Detroit (4:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Walters) 13.122; Detroit (Fister) 16.507
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-210); Under

Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nuno) 16.501; Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.150
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+145); Over

Game 925-926: Oakland at Houston (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 14.281; Houston (Harrell) 14.721
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+150); Under

Game 927-928: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.883; Seattle (Hernandez) 13.907
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100); Over

Game 929-930: Miami at Chicago White Sox (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 13.520; White Sox (Peavy) 14.948
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-200); Under

Alf Musketa

Mike Pyle vs. Rick Story
Play: Mike Pyle +125

Rick Story (15-6, 8-4 in the UFC) is a replacement for Gunnar Nelson. Nelson, the Iceland native, is the much maligned and highly anticipated potential welter-weight contender who many say is the next George St. Pierre. Nelson is out with a knee injury.

Mike Pyle (24-8-1, 7-3 UFC) was prepping for a big fight with Nelson, but now gets Story. You might think this could be a letdown spot for Pyle as a win over Nelson would put him in line for a title shot. But not so, as Pyle mentions, "GSP has been calling the shots as to who he fights for his title, when and where, and he is not going to give a 37 year old no name guy like me a shot." Pyle is content to keep on winning and Story is just in his way.

Pyle has only one loss in his last seven fights and he has won his last three fights in a row, all of them by KO or TKO via knees and punches. Pyle has a a three inch height and reach advantage. His ju-jitsu game is superior to that of Story's and his overall ground game as well.

Story fought just 70 days ago. A normal period of time in between fights is 3-4 months. Story has taken this fight on short notice and is looking to cash another quick pay check in my opinion and will run out of gas in the later rounds versus "Quicksand" Pyle and his relentless attack. Story has one major weakness and that is he gets taken down to the ground allot and quite easily. In 53 attempts Story's opponents have taken him down 26 times (49%), a percentage mark that is highest of all UFC fighter with 50 plus attempts.

Early money has come in on Pyle and I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite here. We expect Pyle to dominate the takedowns and control the match in this fashion and win by decision or late round submission.

CRAIG DAVIS

Today's free play is on the Yankees/Rays under the total with two very good young pitchers on the mound.

Matt Moore takes the mound as the Tampa Bay Rays look to avoid a fourth loss in five games... and they've got the right pitcher on the mound to get back on the winning track.

Moore (8-0, 2.29 ERA) has been the best pitcher in the American League to date, bar none, and although his career numbers aren't spectacular against the Yankees in the past, he did dominate them to the count of a 5-1 win earlier this year.

Moore allowed just one earned run on two hits and struck out nine Yankees to help the Rays win a big game (at the time) vs. the AL East leaders, and owns a 3-2 overall record in his short career.

Ivan Nova was activated from the disabled list Friday and was expected to start this game, but instead Joe Girardi decided to send him to the bullpen and give Vidal Nuno another start. I think that helps our UNDER today.

Nuno (1-1, 1.13) will be making his fourth career appearance and second start of the season. His only other start came May 13 when he gave up three hits and three walks in five innings of a 7-0 win over Cleveland.

I don't like what I'm seeing from Tampa's offense lately, and Moore should keep the Yankees at bay.

I'm seeing a 3-2 game, which is definitely under the total.

3* N.Y. YANKEES-TAMPA BAY UNDER

JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday freebie comes on the ice, as the Boston Bruins eliminate the New York Rangers on Saturday afternoon at the TD Garden.

New York was able to avoid the sweep on Thursday night with the overtime win on their home ice, and while net-minder Henrik Lundqvist has played well, I just don't trust the Rangers offense to get enough going against Boston goalie Tuuka Rask in order to take this series back to the Big Apple for a 6th game.

The Rangers were able to get some traction with their power-play on Thursday, but that has been more the exception rather than the rule.

Head coach John Torterella is trying anything to get his team going, but the simple fact is, Boston has outplayed New York pretty much all series long, and I have no issue laying a little home juice with the Bruins to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Bruins the play on Saturday.

4* BOSTON

BRETT ATKINS

Now, as for the Snakes, they'll strike quick and often against the struggling Padres, who have lost three in a row after last night's 5-2 loss in Phoenix.

I will say this, the Padres have their best chance at stealing a game from this series by handing the ball to right-hander Andrew Cashner, who continues to impress since being moved into the starting rotation, as he's allowed two or fewer runs in five of his six starts and boasts a 2.80 ERA as a starter.

But this is not a lineup you just step to the mound against, and think you can dominate at free will. The Snakes rank 10th in the league for the month of May, with a .265 batting average, while they have the fifth-best pitching staff this month, with a 3.14 ERA overall.

So for as hot as Cashner has been, the runner-up last year's National League Rookie of the Year voting is going to have his hands full against an equally hot pitching staff and lethal lineup.

I know Arizona's Wade Miley is 1-3 with a 6.28 ERA in five career starts against the Padres, but this is a great spot to improve on those numbers.

Take the Diamondbacks, and ya know what, don't worry about listing Miley or Cashner, this is about momentum, and Arizona is the right play.

2* ARIZONA

SCOTT DELANEY

My free play for Saturday night is going to be on the Chicago White Sox laying the run line against the Miami Marlins, as the two continue their Interleague clash on the South Side of Chicago at U.S. Cellular Field.

Sure, the Marlins are handing the ball to the very capable Ricky Nolasco, who is in after producing his best outing last Sunday, against the National League West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks. He nabbed the victory after allowing just one run while striking out 11 over eight innings. But, in his lone career start against the Pale Hose, back in 2010, he took the loss, giving up eight runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Tonight he'll take on veteran Jake Peavy, who is 5-2 with a 3.31 ERA this season. And I like the fact the right-hander gets a crack at a Miami team that has lost 13 of 16, and has plated just five runs over Nolasco's last four starts.

Let's bank on the South Siders here, as they blast Miami.

2* CHICAGO -1.5

BRAD WILTON

Free play winner this Saturday comes on the struggling Seattle Mariners to get a lock-down pitching performance out of King Felix as the M's post the win over their division rival Texas.

Rangers starter Derek Holland is 2-0 over his last 4 starts, but it is his last pair of starts that have me believing he will have a hard time matching pitches at Safeco against Felix Hernandez.

Holland's last 11 innings have seen 16 hits and 8 runs cross the plate. His road ERA stands at 3.90.

Felix Hernandez is coming off a rough start in Cleveland, and he has worked his last 4 games away from his home ball yard. 6 of King Felix's last 7 starts have seen 1 run or less score, so chances he returns to form seem pretty good to me.
Texas did tag Hernandez in the early part of April in Seattle, but Hernandez does own a home ERA of 1.99 for the season.

M's woes end tonight, as Hernandez outduels Holland.

1* SEATTLE

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit vs. ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We've yet to see a game in this series top five goals and I don't see that changing as the Blackhawks face elimination on home ice on Saturday night.
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Lost in Thursday's 2-0 loss was the fact that Chicago goaltender Corey Crawford bounced back with arguably his best game of the series and that should bode well heading into Saturday's contest.
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Of course, the Blackhawks have been a terrific defensive team all season, allowing just two goals per game.
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The Red Wings have really rounded into form over the course of these playoffs, particularly in their own end of the rink, where they've given up two goals or less in four of their last five games. Jimmy Howard has stood on his head over the last few games and that has only fueled the team's confidence.
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Going back to the regular season, the losing team has been held to one goal or less in seven of eight meetings here in 2013.
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Needless to say, this is the most important game of the series so far and I suspect that will lead to an even tighter-checking affair. There's no need to over-analyze this selection - I don't see the winning team scoring more than three goals, putting us in excellent position to cash with the 'under'.

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Miami vs. ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Chicago -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ricky Nolasco (3-5, 3.96 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors; after three straight losses, Nolasco threw a gem in his last outing, striking out 11 Diamondbacks on Sunday, allowing one run off five hits with a walk over 8 1/3's frames of work. Let's not read too much into that anomalous performance though; Nolasco has been the very definition of a "gas can" all year and is just 7-10 with a pedestrian 5.35 ERA in 19 career interleague starts. Nolasco will be opposed by Jake Peavy (5-2, 3.31 ERA) who gave up just four hits to the Angels last Sunday, but walked five batters, giving up four runs over six frames of work in the end. Peavy would finish with seven K's, but his string of four straight winning starts over his previous five outings came to and end. Here's a great opportunity for the veteran to return to form vs. the soft-hitting Marlins; the Fish are averaging a major league-low 2.7 runs per game. While the Sox have also struggled offensively this year, they come into this series with some momentum having won six of nine. I feel that the talent discrepancy both on the mound and at the plate justifies a second look at the White Sox on the "run-line" in this situation.

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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue JaysSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Toronto Blue JaysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When R.A. Dickey matches serves with Freddy Garcia and the Yankees Saturday afternoon in Toronto he will take the mound knowing he is 7-2 his last nine team starts during May, including 5-1 his last six at home. With Garcia just 1-5 with a 7.37 ERA his last six team starts in this park, look for the Cy Young award-winning knuckleballer to best the Orioles here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto.

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Texas at SeattleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of hard throwing aces are on the mound in spacious Safeco Park, a great pitcher's park. Lefty Derek Holland (3-2, 3.30 ERA) has struck out 54 in 60 innings with only 14 walks and faces a bad Seattle offense, 25th in runs scored, 22nd in on base percentage and 20th in slugging. The under is 23-11-1 in the Rangers last 35 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Slumping Seattle has ace Felix Hernandez (5-3, 2.07 ERA), one of the best in the game, striking out 72 in 69+ innings and only 12 walks. The under is 7-2-2 in the Mariners last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. And when these rivals meet the under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings, including 5-0-1 under the total in the last 6 meetings in Seattle. Play the Rangers/Mariners under the total.

Dave Price

Tampa Bay Rays -165

When the Yankees are this big of an underdog, it's typically for good reason. The Yankees are 6-17 in their last 23 games as an underdog of +151 to +200, and they certainly appear to have their work cut out for themselves here. Tampa Bay southpaw Matt Moore is undefeated on the season while posting a 2.29 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .175 off him. Going back to last season, the Rays are 11-0 in Moore's last 11 starts. He's a respectable 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA in five starts against the Yankees and held them to a single run in eight innings of work in a 5-1 victory last month. The Yankees are only 4-13 in their last 17 meetings at Tampa Bay. Take the Rays.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Cubs are 2-17 as a dog in a day game after allowing 6 or more runs in a night game. Cincy is 10-1 at home, after beating a team at home while drawing 1 or less walks. They had one last night. The Reds fit a nice system that has won 12 of the last 15 times and pertains to home favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home favored in by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs but managed 10 or more hits. The Cubs have lost 16 of 23 day games, scoring under 3 runs per game and hitting .217 on the road, they are 1-4 as a road dog in this range. The Reds are 21-9 vs losing teams, 6-1 as a home favorite in this range and have already taken 6 of 7 vs Chicago this season. The Pitching also favors the Reds. H. Bailey is 13-2 if he is not a home dog and went 6 or more innings but more more than 8 innings while allowing no more than one run. Homer has also won 8 of 10 vs the Cubs and is 4-0 at home with a 2.16 era. The Cubs have Wood going. While Wood has Been Good, he hasn't been here. In his starts in this park he has allowed 9 runs in 11 innings. Look for the Reds to take another from Chicago.

Red Dog Sports

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees won on Friday night at Tampa Bay and are playing well. Matt Moore has been pitching great for the Rays but the Yankees are worth a small one unit play. Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Texiera may be out for New York but they are over .500 on the road and should have plenty of fans as their spring training facility is near the Tampa area.