Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday May, 26

SPORTS WAGERS - MMA

Duane Ludwig +106 over Dan Hardy

This fight can be watched live on the Prelim portion of the broadcast. "The Outlaw" Dan Hardy comes in with a 23-10 record, which includes a streak of four straight losses coming into this one. To be fair, they have not been against easy competition and the first loss was in a title fight with long time division kingpin George St Pierre. Duane "Bang" Ludwig comes in off a loss and has a near identical record to Hardy at 21-12. Both fighters prefer to keep it standing and this bodes well for Ludwig, who was a Muay Thai champ and is the more accomplished striker. While Hardy's fights are always entertaining, standing and trading isn't the best thing for him to do with Bang and will likely end with him losing a decision or getting KO'd. On the ground, Hardy would probably have a decided advantage and one has to wonder if he will attempt some takedowns. He is in danger of getting a pink slip and needs a win very badly but many fighters are creatures of habit and won't deviate from their preferred fighting style. If Hardy proves to be the rule and not the exception, Ludwig has a great chance at getting back on track with a win. Ludwig is a slight dog due to the small chance that this hits the mat but more because Hardy is a more well-known fighter to the casual fan due to his title fight run a few years ago and his flamboyant personality. Ludwig offers up all the value here. Play: Duane Ludwig +106 (Risking 2 units).

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

When the White Sx host the Indians in an A. L. Central division battle at Comiskey Park Saturday afternoon Peavy will take the mound knowing he's issued 11 walks with 55 strikeouts in his nine starts this season. Peavy is also 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in his last two starts in this series. With that look for Peavy to improve to 14-4 in his last 18 home team starts during the month of May here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia +5.5 over BOSTON: Gonna look to the Sixers in this one. Philly just seems to be ready to take that next step. Actually I'm not sure they will win the game outright, but they are playing with plenty of heart right now and should at least keep this one close. The Sixers were blown out in game 5 here, but this one is for all the marbles and you can expect a game more like the 1st two in this series, which was won by each team by just 1 point. Both teams play excellent defense, but I feel the Sixers have a bit more at that end of the floor. On Paper Boston may have a bit more offense, but they are beat up so that evens things out a bit. I just feel the Sixers defense will really be able to keep this one close.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees fit a nice system here that plays on certain road favorites with a total of 8 or less off a road favored win by 2 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less, if they scored 5 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base and had no errors, vs an opponent off a home dog loss by 2 or more runs that scored 4 or less runs and had 5 or more hits with no more than 1 error. This system may been complicated but it has cashed 13 of the last 16 times. The Yankees are 9-1 here and Oakland is hitting just .204 at home and will continue to struggle vs CC. Sabathia who has allowed just 4 runs in his last 23 innings against Oakland. Colon makes the start for Oakland and he has lost all 3 home starts with a 10.34 era. Look for the Yankees to win this one.

Bryan Power

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers

I just can't see the visiting Astros making it two straight wins over the Dodgers in LA, particularly with the hosts unbeaten this season at Chavez Ravine in this price range (-125 to -175), going a perfect 12 for 12. Even with yesterday's surprise win, Houston is a dreadful 30-70 their last 100 times in the road underdog role and just 6-13 away from Minute Maid Park this season. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 20-6 vs. right-handers and 19-5 at home overall and tonight will send Chad Billingsley to the hill as they look to improve to 5-1 in his home starts this season. Look for the Dodgers to get back on track here.

Jimmy Boyd

Seattle Mariners -145

The Mariners have the clear advantage on the mound with Hernandez. The dominant right-hander is 4-3 with an ERA of 2.80, including 2-1 with a 0.87 ERA at home. The Angels' Williams doesn't inspire the same confidence, especially on the road where he's 0-2 with an ERA of 5.06. The Mariners have won Hernandez's last two starts against the Angels. He has limited the Halos to 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts against them. This dominance has prompted odds makers to post a low total, which bodes well for us considering the Mariners are 6-1 in Hernandez's last 7 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The M's are also 5-2 in his last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. In addition, the Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 4-11 in their last 15 in the 3rd game of a series. The Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 in the 3rd game of a series. Take Seattle.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners

Seattle has a better offense than the stumbling Angels and has ace Felix Hernandez going Saturday night. Hernandez bounced back from an ugly outing in his last start to pitch eight innings of one-run ball Monday, allowing six hits and two walks against the Rangers. He struck out seven in besting Texas ace Yu Darvish. LA goes with Jerome Williams, who has been great at home but awful on the road, with an 0-2 road record and a 5.96 ERA. The Angels are 5-11 in their last 16 vs. the American League West while the Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play the Mariners.

Dave Cokin

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Houston Astros

Big current form edge for Bud Norris over Chad Billingsley and Houston continues to exceed expectations with their surprising play. I'll grab the price with the Astros to again stun the Dodgers.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +5½/+221 over BOSTON

The Celtics have had their chances to put away the 76ers but have failed to finish them off and now Boston finds itself in a one-game showdown for all the marbles. That’s not a great place to be for a older team that is hobbling and playing under a lot more pressure than these free-spirited intruders. The Sixers have plenty of reason to be confident. The Celts are expected to be without Avery Bradley as the defensive menace is likely done for the postseason with a shoulder injury. Sixers guard Lou Williams described Bradley as a pit bull on defense. Bradley’s replacement, Ray Allen, is suffering from bone spurs in his right ankle and has struggled to stay in front of Philadelphia’s guards. Allen’s offense is suffering too, as he’s shooting 60% from the free throw line and 28% from 3-point land. The Sixers exploited the C’s suddenly deficient perimeter defense in Game 6 and a similar attack figures to be in store here. So, while the C’s are more experienced, the 76ers feature seven players age 25 or younger in their nine-man rotation and they can’t wait for this game to start. A loose, young, energetic and talented team with nothing to lose certainly has a chance to pull the upset or stay within range Play: Philadelphia +5½ (Risking 1.04 units to win 1). Play: Philadelphia +221 (Risking 1 unit).

Kansas City +111 over BALTIMORE

Wei-Yin Chen has just two losses on the year, which is the same number of losses as Clayton Kershaw. Somehow, the 26-year old keeps racking up wins but it cannot last for this very mediocre pitcher. Chen’s profile shows a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 35%/20%/45%. Combine that fly-ball bias profile with his average strikeout rate and it’s trouble waiting to happen at Camden Yards. Chen’s xERA is 4.55, which is more than a run higher than his actual ERA of 3.45. Meanwhile Felipe Paulino is one of baseball’s best kept secrets. All he’s done is struck out 29 batters in 25 frames while walking a mere seven batters. He’s already beaten the Yanks twice by holding them to zero runs in 12.2 innings. Paulino has made just four starts this season after beginning the year on the DL and in three of those four starts he’s held the opposition scoreless. We see improved ERA, xERA, strikeout rate and groundball rate for three straight years and it’s all coming together for him now. The kid is the real deal. Play: Kansas City +111 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -1½ +145 over Cleveland

Very quietly, the White Sox have won seven of eight and own the second best BA in the majors over the past 10 games. The South Side won the opener, 9-3 last night and have now scored 26 runs over their past three games and six runs or more in seven of their past 10. They have a chance to put up a bunch more against one of the major’s biggest imposters, Derek Lowe. Lowe has a 2.15 ERA after nine starts but that does not coincide with 18 walks and 15 K’s in 59 innings. Lowe has been the lucky recipient of batted balls being hit right at people and once his 87% strand rate normalizes, his ERA will skyrocket. Don’t get blinded by the low ERA or 6-2 record, as Lowe still has some glaring weaknesses that this hot-hitting host has a great chance to expose. Jake Peavy has 55 K’s and 11 walks in 64 frames. Since April 23, Peavy has posted a 2.23 ERA and has also had good success against Cleveland in the past. However, this one is all about fading Derek Lowe. Play: Chicago -1½ +145 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco +122 over MIAMI

The Giants lost to a big inning last night when the Marlins put up five in the sixth frame. San Fran still scored six yesterday and 14 in the opener Thursday night so they’re clearly feeling very comfortable at the plate in this yard. Madison Bumgarner is a different pitcher this year, transforming from a fireball hurler to an extreme groundballer (53% GB%) this season. It really doesn’t get much sweeter than Bumgarner taking back a tag against Mark Buehrle. Buehrle brings very little to the table outside of a strong WHIP. He relies heavily on his defense to make plays because he doesn’t miss many bats. Buehrle has posted a 4.43 ERA over his last three starts and the Fish have won all three. They can’t keep bailing him out by scoring five runs every time he pitches and his string of luck is about to run out. Definite overlay. Play: San Francisco +122 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Houston Astros +128

The Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley has struggled to keep runners off of the bases so far this season and the Astro's lineup has show the ability to put some runs on the board. Houston's starting pitcher Bud Norris has been the best starting pitcher in baseball in the month of May. Norris has won four straight games and has a Major League best 0.35 ERA for the month. Houston is 8-1 this season in games started by Norris this season and the Dodgers are 0-4 in Billingsley's last four starts against teams with a losing record. Play on Houston.

JEFF BENTON

Your free play for Saturday is Tampa Bay-Boston to stay under the total.

I sure hope the Fenway scoreboard operator has plenty of "0's" in his score bin, because he is going to be busy hanging them in the innings window inside the Green Monster this Saturday night.

Aces David Price and Josh Beckett will give no quarter in this game, as there will be plenty of swings and misses, and plenty of stranded runners.

Price is 6-1 this season when twirling at night with a 2.64 ERA, and he has fanned 29 batters his last 29 innings of work.

On the Boston side, Josh Beckett has quieted the critics by allowing just one earned run to score in his last 14-plus frames of work, and he has also fanned 14 to go along with those 14-plus innings worked.

Last night the teams played over the total, but three of the last four meetings have held under the total the last four times these teams have played this year, and I think it is a pretty safe bet that we are moving to a 4-1 run with unders when Price and Beckett mow them down.

Take the under in Tampa Bay-Boston this Saturday night.

3♦ UNDER

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, we are going for winner No. 2 in a row as the Brewers came through for a win Friday.

Today, let’s look at the Boston Red Sox to beat the Tampa Bay Rays.

Josh Beckett starts for Boston tonight. He struggled, as most of the Red Sox did, to start the season. But in his last two starts, something has clicked. In 14 innings, he has given up one run and notched two victories.

He is getting back to the form that made him one of the top pitchers in the league.

He will be taking on the Rays, who is starting David Price.

Price has hit a little bump in the road. He has given up 23 hits in his last three starts. His ERA over that time is 3.86 and he has gone 1-2 over that time.

Beckett and Price faced each other earlier this season, with Beckett getting the win. He pitched eight innings and gave up one run in a 12-2 victory. Price lasted three innings in that start.

Against lefties, the Red Sox average 5.7 runs a game.
The pitching matchup favors Boston.

Take the Red Sox.

3♦ RED SOX

MATT RIVERS

Saturday's comp play winner is the Over in the Yankees-A's game.

I know Oakland has had their struggles at the plate this season, and I know those struggles are likely to continue against CC Sabathia, but if the Athletics can get two of three runs, then I think the Yankees can take care of the rest and get us Over the total the way they did last night when New York was able to score six times.

The Yankees bats have come through with 14 runs their last two games, and they should be able to get a few more off of former teammate Bartolo Colon whose ERA is over eight for his last three starts.

With last night's Over, the teams have played high in five in a row, and seven of the last nine series meetings.

Look for that Over trend to continue today.

Yankees-Athletics Over the total.

4♦ OVER

ANTHONY REDD

Now let's get to Saturday's free pick....

28-17-1 run with my comp plays with today's play a run line release on Texas.

The Rangers rolled 14-3 over Toronto in last night's series opener in Arlington. Big game from Nelson Cruz. Grand Slam and 8 RBI's. If he stays hot, watch out.

Like the pitching match-up in this one.

Colby Lewis has been pretty inconsistent this season for Texas, except when it comes to pitching at home where he's 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA so far.

Toronto's Henderson Alvarez started the season strong, but he was lit up in his last two starts by the Mets and Rays, allowing 19 hits and 10 runs, eight of them earned, in 11.2 innings. The Blue Jays are 3-6 in his nine starts this season.

Texas has won four of the last six at home in the series. We're getting the Rangers are +110 to even money since we're laying the 1 1/2 runs with them today.

3♦ TEXAS -1.5