CRAIG DAVIS
My last NBA comp play was an easy winner on Miami-Indiana Over in Game Six of their series on Thursday. Tonight I'm taking the Over again, this time in Game Seven of the Philly-Boston series, which is currently sitting around 170 points.
Gotta admit, these are some of the lowest totals I can ever remember in any series. I was watching clips of some old Celtics/Sixers highlights from the playoffs in the '80s, and all I remember seeing is short shorts, high socks, and high scores.
Not this year. Philly and Boston are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and in a few of these games it showed as we've seen scores of 82-81, 82-75 and 92-83.
Of course the flip side is we've also seen scores of 92-91, 101-85, and 107-91.
Game 7 is going to be another high-scorer, just like I told you Miami and Indiana would go Over in Game 6 the other night.
Remember what I said Thursday, that neither team cared much about defense, especially Indiana, as they figured the only way to survive was to shoot and shoot and shoot some more. Philly can talk about its defense all it wants, but the Sixers know they can't focus their efforts on the defense while shooting like crap.
Same goes for the Celtics. Their most successful games are when they get out and run in transition with Rondo leading the break. It doesn't mean they can't play defense; it only means they have to have more of a concerted effort on the offensive end.
Both teams put points on the board and this one soars over.
5♦ PHILADELPHIA-BOSTON OVER
Dave Price
Cincinnati Reds -144
The Rockies are 5-15 in their last 20 overall, 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win, 1-8 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series and 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games. The Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 overall, 7-2 in their last 9 games following a loss, 16-5 in their last 21 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and Reds are 4-1 in Leake's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Reds.
David Banks
76ers / Celtics Under 170.5
It was a truly ugly Game 6 between the Philadelphia 76ers (42-36, 40-37-1 ATS) and the Boston Celtics (46-32, 39-37-2 ATS), but in the end the eight-seeds from Philadelphia prevailed 82-75 to force a winner-take-all Game 7. Thus, the pattern of these teams alternating wins over the first six games continued as the 76ers improved to 5-0 this post season when coming off of a loss. At least the Celtics get to return home for Game 7, which takes place Saturday night at TD Garden in Boston, MA at 8:00 ET and will be broadcast nationally over the air on ABC.
The Sixers won Game 6 despite hitting on only one three-point attempt in nine tries, shooting only 60.7 percent from the foul line (17-for-28) and committing 12 turnovers, which should give you an idea of just how bad Boston played. To their credit though, the Sixers did take control in the third quarter after trailing 36-33 at halftime, committing only two of their turnovers in that quarter. The highlight of the third stanza was a ferocious dunk by Andre Iguodala on which he was fouled, giving the Sixers a five-point lead after he made the free throw, which in itself was a rarity for Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Sixers then kept the Celtics at arm's length the rest of the way, a task made easier by Boston's sloppy play. Now keep in mind that Game 5 in Boston was the complete opposite of Game 6, as it was then the 76ers that had the halftime lead on the road and it was the Celtics feeding off of the home fans in the second half while exploding and pulling away. So, did the Sixers merely prolong the inevitable by winning Game 6 or could they become the first team to win two straight games in this series?
The Celtics have nowhere to go but up after playing their worst game of the playoffs and one of their worst games all year at the most inopportune time. Boston shot a miserable 33.3 percent from the field (26-for-78) including 3-for-14 from three-point land and committed 17 turnovers. Just about the only reason the 76ers did not blow the doors off of Game 6 early was because the Celtics hit on 20 of their 23 free throw attempts, including going a perfect 17-for-17 over the first three quarters while making only 19 field goals over that same span. Then, Kevin Garnett was the only Celtic hitting shots in the fourth quarter, and many of those shots were outside jumpers as Boston could get no easy looks near the basket. Garnett finished with 20 points with most of those coming in the final 12:00, but Paul Pierce was the leading scorer with 24 points, although he hit on only 5-of-11 from the field while going 13-for-13 from the foul line. No other Boston player hit double-digits, a far cry from Game 5 here in Beantown when Brandon Bass scored 27 and Rajon Rondo had his customary double-double. Bass had only eight points on Wednesday and Rondo had an off night with just nine points and six assists.
Game 6 was only the second 'under' of this series and the 'over' is still 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings overall. One would think that the Boston shooting would improve in this contest just like it do following the Celtics' first two losses in this series, as they put up 107 points in Game 3 and 101 points in Game 5. The 76ers are 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 meetings, but obviously none of those were a Game 7 in Boston situation.
Michael Alexander
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
The First place Baltimore Orioles send Wei-Yin Chen to the hill today. Chen has done well in the starting line up posting a stellar 1.98 ERA in his four starts at Camden Yards.
Kansas City comes in with a horrible 2-9 mark vs. lefthanders so far while scoring only 2.7 runs per game. The Royals counter with Right Hander Felipe Paulino but the Orioles have crushed right handed starters this season.
Baltimore continues to play well and only a -125 favorite at home is a bargain.
Ross King
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
San Diego currently 3-14 versus left handed starters.San Diego as road underdogs of +125 to +150 are 23-40 the last 3 seasons.San Diego currently 5-14 on the road.Ny mETs 6-1 currently on Saturdays.San Diego is 1-10 when scoring 3 or fewer runs and 8-24 overall.San Diego starter Richards is 0-3 e.r.a 6.68 on the road in his last 5 starts.Johan Santana is too good to go winless for his 4th time.Take the Ny Mets and ace Santana as the terrible road numbers continue for the Padres.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Washington/ Atlanta Over 7.5: Interesting to note here that Stephen Strasburg has it in his contract that he is not to go over 160 innings pitched this year and so he has pitched past 6 innings just once this year. Stephen does has a 2.21 ERA overall, but a 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts, while the Nats pen has a 3.47 ERA on the road this year, so this struggling Braves offense should be good for a few runs off their pitching today, especially if we add in the fact that Stephen also has a 4.35 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Braves. The Nats offense hasn't been great this year, but they have turned it on a bit of late, averaging 4.8 rpg in their last 6 games and they will be taking on Mike Minor, who has struggled mightily of late. Mike actually has struggled all year with a 6.96 ERA overall, but in his last 5 starts he has allowed 6 ER's or more in 4 of those starts. Mike's starts this year have averaged 11.2 rpg, while his home starts have put up 9 rpg, Mike has averaged just 5.9 innings pitched per outing and behind him is a pen that has a 4.83 ERA in this park. We should get a few extra runs from both pens in this one as this ga,e flirts with DD runs.
3 UNIT PLAY
Detroit/ Minnesota Over 9: Not sure what happened yesterday as I started to make a write up for the over in that game and then deleted it, but was still supposed to go back to it. That didn't happen and i left a winner off the table. Not today. Since the return of Justin Morneau the Twins have been involved in a bunch of high scoring games. 8 of the 9 games played since his return have put up at least 9 runs on the board. The Twins scoring has been up over that stretch as they have averaged 6.4 rpg in the 9 games, compared to less than 3.8 rpg before hand. Pitching has been a problem for this team all year as they ar last in ERA (5.49) and they come in having allowed a whopping 9 rpg in their last 5 games. Today the Twins send out Carl Pavano, who has a 6.65 ERA in 4 home starts this year, with his home starts averaging 10.3 rpg. Carl also has a 6.61 ERA in his last 5 starts vs Detroit, with 4 of te 5 starts hitting at least 9 runs. Max Scherzer pitched well in his last starts, but that was vs a weak hitting Pitt squad. Max comes in with a 5.73 ERA on the year, including a 5.33 ERA on the road, with his 5 road starts averaging 11.2 rpg. Max also has a 6.03 ERA in 6 day starts this year, with those starts averaging 11.7 rpg, plus he has a 6.45 ERA in 6 starts vs te Twins, with 4 of those 6 starts putting up 10 runs or more. Detroit had been struggling on offense and I expected that a trip to Minnesota would cure that and it did as they banged out 16 hits and put up 10 run. I expect their hitting to continue today, while Minnesota's hot hitting will also continue as this one reaches DD with ease.
TRENDS OF NOTE
The Mets are 15-2-1 OVER vs lefties this year.
Miami is 17-4-1 OVER at home this year, including 6-0 OVER at home in day games.
San Fran is 15-9 OVER on the road, compared to 14-7-1 UNDER at home.
St Louis is 17-5 OVER in home games this year, with those games averaging 10.6 rpg (3rd in league)
Arizona is just 4-11 at home vs Righties
Oakland is 23-8-1 UNDER vs righties this year, but 8-5-1 OVER vs lefties
Pittsburgh is 6-1 at home vs lefties, while the UNDER is 10-4 overall when they face a lefty this year.
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates -118
The Chicago Cubs are in a slump that they just cannot seem to get out of. The Cubs should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight. They have now lost 10 straight games overall to take ahold of the worst record (15-30) in baseball.
Chicago's biggest problem all season has been their offense, where they are hitting just .246 and scoring 3.4 runs/game. The Cubs have scored a combined 6 runs in their last five games overall. They scored 1 run or fewer in four of those five contests.
Former Pirates' starter Paul Maholm gets the ball for Chicago tonight. Maholm is 1-1 with a 6.06 ERA in three road starts this season. I believe the edge goes to the Pittsburgh hitters as they have a perfect scouting report on the left-hander.
The Cubs are 5-21 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Pittsburgh starter Kevin Correia is 20-9 against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game since 1997. Bet the Pirates Saturday.
Tony Karpinski
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
Look for Arizona to bounce back tonight at home. It should go a little smoother, despite facing Zach Greinke. Greinke has pitched poorly on the road as a Brewerwith a 4.91 ERA this season on top of the 4.70 mark from last season. He also has never pitched well against the Diamondbacks, allowing 17 earned runs in 25 innings with a decidedly un-Greinke-like 1.68 WHIP. Arizona got a boost this week with Chris Young rejoining the lineup, and it is only a matter of time before his bat starts paying dividends. We expect good work from starter Wade Miley as well. Miley has flown under the radar this year, but has quietly allowed one run or less in six of his nine appearances. He does a great job limiting his walks and I'll back the D-Backs
Jeff Alexander
Boston Red Sox -120
Beckett has been brilliant in his last two, only allowing 1 earned run in 14 2-3 innings of work while striking out 14 and walking 4. Expect him to keep dealing against a team he has had a lot of success against. He is 11-4 lifetime with an ERA of 3.28 versus Tampa Bay, and the Red Sox have won each of Beckett's last 4 starts versus the Rays. Bet Boston.
Harry Bondi
SF Giants +130
This is simply a huge overlay of a price and we're going to take advantage. Madison Bumgarner has been outstanding for the Giants this year and is vastly underrated. The left-hander has quietly won five games and posted a solid 2.85 ERA. He also has a career 2.74 ERA on the road and this is his first chance to throw in the pitcher-friendly new park in Miami. The only reason the Marlins are heavily favored is because they have the bigger name (Mark Buerhle) on the mound. This is a value play! Take the dog.
WUNDERDOG
Colorado at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -150
The Colorado Rockies got a rare road win when they defeated the Reds here last night. The Reds have been a hot team and I'm sure they will be inspired to return the favor tonight. Jeremy Guthrie did nothing in Baltimore and he is doing worse in Colorado dealing a 5.55 ERA on the season. Guthrie has made six starts and in three of them gave up six runs. Guthrie is 42-62 in his last 104 MLB decisions. The Rockies have been a woeful 6-21 facing a team that allowed five runs or more in their previous game and are just 26-57 in their last 83 as a dog. The Reds are 21-10 in their last 31 as a home favorite, including 16-5 when the line is from -110 to -150. Play on Cincinnati.
MLB Predictions
Washington Nationals -129
Washington took the first game of the battle of the two top NL East teams with a 7-4 win last night as +135 underdogs. The win moved the Nationals to a solid 27-18 on the season and 12-10 on the road. The Braves are 26-21 and 10-8 at home this season, and have lost 5 straight after being swept in Cincinnati. Tonight the Nationals will send Stephen Strasburg to the mound. Strasburg is 4-1 on the season with a 2.21 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .214 opponents batting average. 8 of 9 of his starts have been quality starts, and he has struckout 64 batters on the season (compared to just 13 walks). Strasburg is battling a bit of an injury, but I would expect that if it was anything that would mess with his performance the team would have him skip a start. The Braves will counter with southpaw Mike Minor, who isn't have the best season thus far. Minor is just 2-4 with a 6.96 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .286 opponents batting average. His latest start was considered one of his better starts on the season but he allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits with 5 walks in 6 innings of work against Cincinnati. He has allowed 4+ earned runs against in 7 of his 9 starts. Take note that the Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 games, while the Braves have dropped 5 in a row and 6 of their last 7. The Nationals are 6-2 in their last 8 road games, and 6-2 in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning record. They are also 7-1 in Strasburg's last 8 road starts, and 8-2 in his last 10 starts overall. The Braves are just 4-13 in their last 17 games vs divisional opponents, and are 0-4 in Minor's last 4 starts vs divisional opponents. Over his career Strasburg has pitched better in day games, and I expect him to take control of this game against the Braves who haven't seen him this year. Take the Nationals to win this afternoon.
Hollywood Sports
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cubs (15-30) have lost 11 of their last 13 road games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. This decisive team trend is complemented by the fact that Chicago has also lost 21 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Cubbies look to avenge their 1-0 loss to Pittsburgh last night -- but this team has lost 10 of their last 11 games following a loss. They send out Paul Maholm who is 4-3 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season. But while the left-hander has a 3.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .223 opponent's batting average when at home in Wrigley, he sees this number climb to a 6.06 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .286 opponent's batting average when on the road. That does not bode well for the Cubs here with Maholm facing a Pirates team that has won 6 of their last 7 games against a left-handed starting pitcher. Pittsburgh (21-24) counters with Kevin Correia who is just 1-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. But Correia has a great chance to earn a win against a Cubs' team that has lost 7 straight games against a right-handed starting pitcher. The Pirates have also won 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite. Take the money line on Pittsburgh in this one while listing both starting pitchers Maholm and Correia.
Freddy Wills
Atlanta Braves +111
Wow look at these odds for Steven Strasburg vs. Mike Minor and the Braves who have been struggling. Minor is 0-5 with a 10.46 ERA over his last 5 starts and Strasburg has been un-hittable at times. You know what else has been un-hittable? Pitches coming from the hands of a south paw when the Nationals are on the road. The Nationals are dreadful on the road vs. LHP with an average of .173 and an average of 1.59 runs per 9 innings. The Braves at home have been one of the leagues best scoring 5.67 runs per 9 innings. Though they have just plated 12 runs in their last 5 games they have hit better than any other team against Strasburg who has a 4.35 lifetime ERA vs. the Braves.
On the other side Mike Minor really has not been bad as much as he's been unlucky. Minor has given up 2 HR/9 and the Nationals are not a big HR threat and his 57.9% LOB is more unlucky than lucky which is why you see his xFIP at 4.20 which is about right. He has three starts vs. the Nationals where he is 1-2 with a 4.02 ERA. He's faced mainly the top hitting LHP teams in the National League and today he faces the 25th ranked Nationals. I'm sure he'll be plenty motivated with a chance to upset the almighty Steven Strasburg and end the Braves struggles.
Joseph D'Amico
New York Yankees -164
New York has won 7 straight games in Oakland, including a 6-3 victory yesterday. The Yankees have won their L3 overall and rank in the top tier in a slew of offensive categories. Their lineup is so strong, it makes it impossible to pitch around any batters. Today, NY's ERA leader, CC Sabathia takes the bump. The LH hasn't had a ton of run support this season, but the Yanks are swinging the bat with authority lately and will allow the ace some cushion today. Sabathia faces and Oakland team that is two games under .500, averaging a mere 3.39 RPG. Injuries and suspensions have hurt the A's as Sizemore is out with a torn ACL and Ramirez is suspended for violating the League's drug policy. Bartolo Colon gets the node here. The RH is 4-4 with a 4.09 ERA this season, including a 1-3, 7.06 mark at home. The Yankees are 20-8 their L28 games played at the A's, 37-18 their L55 games played vs. teams with a losing record, and 70-28 in Sabathia's L98 starts. The A's are 8-20 their L28 games played as a home 'dog, 1-4 their L5 games played at home, and 2-5 their L7 games overall. take New York.