Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, May 29,2010

Marc Lawrence

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

Oakland's Brett Anderson takes the mound in the Motor City with just a 1-3 team start mark this season despite s stingy 2.36 ERA to show for his efforts. With Anderson in terrific KW form to boot with four walks and 17 K's this season, look for the tide to turn in his favor tonight. Back Anderson and the A's here.

Frank Jordan

Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

The top four teams are separated by just 3 games in the NL West however Arizona is the odd team out as they are in last place and 8 games back. San Francisco is right in the hunt just 2.5 games back 2 in the loss column. Look for the Giants to make it a winning streak as they win their third in a row behind Anibel Sanchez. Play San Francisco

Craig Trapp

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Very simply this is a mismatch in every aspect of the game. On the season TOR is 4-0 winning all but one game by more than the R/L. Today TOR turns to super hot CECIL who has a 1.32 ERA in winning his last two starts. The left-hander was particularly sharp in his last outing, allowing two hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 6-0 win over Los Angeles on Monday night. Cecil is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA in two career starts versus the Orioles. BALT turns to Tillman for his first major league start. Hard to have a tougher spot to start as TOR is best power hitting team in MLB today. BALT looks defeated after just looking horrible on FRI night. EASY winner tonight as TOR blows out BALT!

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Marlins are 0-4 this year as a home dog in this range. Tonight they take on a Phillies team that has scored just 3 runs in 36 innings. Things don't look to get any better as the Marlins will have to face staff ace R.Halladay. Roy Halladay has a 1.88 road era and has lost in his last 3 starts. Halladay was real good in his start vs Philly. He allowed 2 runs in 8+ innings of work. J.Johnson is on the mound and he has not fared well with this lineup. Johnson has allowed 9 earned runs in just a shade over 9 innings. Look for the Phillies to get the win tonight.

Steve Merril

Orioles @ Blue Jays
PICK: Under 9

Chris Tillman makes his first start of the season for the Baltimore Orioles as they take on Toronto Saturday afternoon. Tillman made 10 starts in AAA Norfolk going 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA. The righty had an impressive strikeout rate of 7.3 K/9 while there. Last season, he faced the Blue Jays twice in Toronto. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in 11.7 innings pitched in those two starts. Vernon Wells (0-6), Aaron Hill (1-6), Adam Lind (1-6), and John McDonald (0-2) have the worst numbers against Tillman. For all the offense that Toronto produces, they have gone Under in more than half of their home games. They've also gone Under in 10 of their 19 day games.

Toronto’s Brett Cecil comes into this start after shutting down two good offenses out West. Cecil shut out the Angels for 7.3 innings as he gave up just two hits in that game. Before that, he gave up two runs ands seven hits to Seattle. The lefty faced the Orioles twice last season with both games going Under the total. Cecil gave up two runs and nine hits in 10.3 innings pitched. Nick Markakis (1-5), Cesar Izturis (1-4), and Matt Wieters (0-3) all have poor numbers against Cecil in limited at-bats. The Orioles have gone Under in 10 of 16 games against left-handed starters and Under in 18 of their 26 road games. They are hitting .250 away from home and have gone Under in three of their four games against Toronto this season. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game so we’ll recommend a play on the Under this afternoon.

David Chan

Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins

Take the Twins, opposing Rangers’ starter CJ Wilson. Check the game out on FOX.

Wilson had a nice start to the season but in his last three starts he’s 0-1 with an ERA of 6.88. He’s faced Oakland, the Angels, and the Cubs—not quite Murderers’ Row. Over that stretch his WHIP is 1.47. I think the former reliever is battling fatigue as he tries to settle into the rotation for the long haul. He only pitched 74 innings all last season; he’s gone 58.2 already and it’s the end of May.

The Twins are 9-5 against southpaw starters this season and will be looking forward to playing Wilson.

This number is floating around -120 to -125 in the overnight market because in three 2009 starts against the Rangers, Twins starter Carl Pavano was roughed up twice. I think the proper number is still -150 or -155, so there’s value here regardless.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Philadelphia Flyers @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers

This should prove to be a great Stanley Cup Finals.

I feel Philadelphia has a legitimate shot at winning Game 1, and of winning the Stanley Cup.

Both teams have very hot goaltending coming into this game; both are very deep and each has a ton of talent; they are also both extremely physical.

But Chris Pronger could very well be the X-Factor for Philadelphia.

He plays half of every game and shuts down the oppositions top forwards; and he's also the best scoring blue liner.

He'll have his hands full of course with Dustin Byfuglien, who has been huge for Chicago this post-season, but I have to give the advantage to Pronger in that head to head matchup.

I think Chicago has an awesome defense as well, but believe the Flyers, anchored by Pronger, have the slight advantage.

When I look at each up front, I'd say the advantage goes to the Blackhawks in the skill department, but that said, Philly does have plenty of talent as well and I think what they lack in skill, they more than make up for it with veteran savvy; so to me, the forwards are a wash.

So that leaves goaltending; Antti Niemi vs. Michael Leighton.

Hard to say who has the advantage here, but most people I think would give it to the rookie Niemi.

However I'm not convinced he is the better goaltender.

Leighton has played at an extremely high level since being thrust into the spot light, and there's nothing I've seen that makes me think he'll have a letdown in the Finals.

Although its dominated almost every statistical category all season long, it's important to point out that Chicago has in fact gone 5-7 (-7.9 units) when playing with three or more days of rest this year.

The path the Flyers took to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals has been incredible; they steamrolled through the Devils; the now historic come from behind series victory over the Bruins; a convincing 5-game pounding of the Habs which included three shutouts for Leighton; and it all got started on the last day of the regular season when Brian Boucher outdueled Henrik Lundqvist in a shootout which preserved the 2-1 victory that clinched a playoff berth for the Flyers and ended the Rangers season.

It won't be easy; just look at the way the Hawks manhandled the Sharks; but I think when you take into account all of the above factors (the X-factor of Pronger and the Flyers overall veteran experience), that we're getting excellent value on PHILADELPHIA in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals.

Black Widow

1* on New York Yankees -1.5 -139

This is almost as easy as it gets Saturday with C.C. Sabathia on the mound facing his former team. Sabathia did get to face his former mates twice last season, posting a 2.84 ERA while allowing just 4 earned runs in 12.2 innings and striking out 12. Sabathia is 2-0 at home this season, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 3 starts. Cleveland is really hurting right now with injuries that have led to poor play offensively. The Indians are hitting .248 and scoring 3.8 runs/game this season. The Yankees are 14-6 at home this season, hitting .301 and scoring 6.3 runs/game. The Yankees will certainly get their bats going today against Indians' starter David Huff, who is 2-6 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in 8 starts this year. Huff is 0-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.786 WHIP on the road, and the Indians have lost all 5 of his road starts by 2 runs or more. Look for a similar result to the 8-2 beating the Yankees put on the Indians last night. Take the Yankees on the Run Line.

Jack Jones

Boston Red Sox -132

Clay Buchholz has been the Red Sox most steady starter all season. With 2 straight losses to open this series with Kansas City, I look for Buchholz and his teammates to come out very motivated tonight to put a halt to this brief losing streak. Certainly, it is human nature for a team to let up like the Red Sox have in this series after the tear they went on leading up to it. Boston won 8 of 9 games against the likes of the Yankees, Twins, Phillies and Rays heading into this series with Kansas City. But after the Royals won the first 2 games, I have no doubt K.C. has gotten their attention Saturday.

Buchholz is 6-3 with a 3.07 ERA this year and 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last 3 outings. Zach Greinke is no longer the same dominant pitcher he was a year ago en route to winning the Cy Young award. That was clear when he gave up 8 runs, 7 earned, and 9 hits in 3.1 innings in his last start, a 7-11 loss to the Texas Rangers. In fact, the Royals are just 2-8 in Greinke's 10 starts this season. Greinke gave up 4 earned runs on 8 hits and 2 home runs in a 3-8 loss to the Red Sox back on April 10th earlier this season.

The Red Sox have gone 9-0 in their last 9 games with a total set in the 7.0 to 8.5 range. Boston is 6-0 in Buchholz's last 6 starts against American League central foes, and 32-9 in their last 41 home games against the AL Central overall. The Red Sox are 57-22 in their last 79 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Boston gets back to business and takes care of the Royals tonight. Bet the Red Sox.

Carlo Campanella

Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati (28-20) hosts the second of a 3-game series against Houston (16-31) on Saturday. They'll be hosting an Astros team that's struggled on the road this season at 7-13 and will start Brian Moehler on the mound. Moehler has watched his Astros lose his last 3 trips to the mound, as he was shelled for 14 Earned Runs in only his last 7 Innings Pitched! With his confidence already hurting, he now must play on the road against a Red's team that he's 2-5 against with a 6.85 ERA. The last time he faced them, he was knocked out of the game in the 3rd inning after connecting for 8 Hits and 7 Earned Runs during a 10-4 loss. Things not looking good for Houston and Moehler, as the Reds have now scored 4 Runs or more in an INCREDIBLE 18 of their last 22 games!

7* Play On Cincinnati

JIM FEIST

RANGERS / TWINS
TAKE UNDER

A battle of division leaders here on Saturday as the Twins host the Rangers. The Rangers have had an excellent May, going 15-9 (11-3 at home). The Twins have played just .500 ball this month, going 12-12. The Rangers are just 8-12 on the road this season while Minnesota is 15-9 at home. It's kind of surprising that the Rangers are below the league average in runs per game (4.83) but just above in home runs (47). The Rangers staff has been solid with a 4.13 ERA. The Twins have a very good staff with a second best 1.285 team WHIP and third best team ERA at 3.83. C.J Wilson wills start today for the Rangers. Wilson allowed five earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings last time out against the Cubs. A little concern here for the Rangers with Wilson. Wilson gave up just eight earned runs through his first seven starts this year, but has allowed 12 in his last two starts. Carl Pavano will counter for the Twins. Pavano won his first three of four starts this year, but since has lost four of five starts. Pavano really has had only two bad starts of his nine this season. In the other seven he's allowed two runs or less in six games. I am looking at the UNDER here on Saturday. Two teams with really no big offensive stats but solid pitching staffs. I expect Wilson to return more to his old form while Pavano really has pitched well this year. Look for the game to go UNDER here on Saturday.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +1.22 over CHICAGO

As much as the Cardinals are a team that is usually overvalued and therefore not playable, Carlos Silva is a guy that is long overdue for a big correction in his numbers. Very average pitchers do not stay lucky for long and that’s precisely what Silva has done. It’s remarkable that this very hittable pitcher is 6-0 with an ERA of 3.52 when you consider a lifetime ERA of 4.87 and a career BAA of .303. Fact is, Silva has won four straight and over that stretch he’s struck out 10 lousy batters. That’s 2½ batters a game and that means he’s pitching to contact. Balls have been hit right at people and that cannot last. Also consider that Silva has an unsustainable 77% strand rate and an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.79 and a come-back-to earth game is forthcoming sooner rather that later. Adam Ottavino was called up to fill in for Kyle Lohse (compartment syndrome in forearm), who was placed on the DL Thursday and underwent surgery Friday. Ottavino could definitely implode because his minor league numbers are not great by any stretch. He does have very good stuff but last season he walked 82 batters and struck out 119 in 144 IP for the Memphis Redbirds of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. This year, however, he’s only walked 11 batters in 41 innings while striking out 37 so perhaps his command issues have been sorted out and that’s a chance worth taking because control has been the only thing holding Ottavino back. He has major league stuff but this one is more about taking back a tag against that career stiff, Carlos Silva. Play: St. Louis +1.22 (Risking 2 units).

CINCINNATI –1½ +1.23 over Houston

Man, it’s tempting to play over 9 runs in this one but for that to happen the Reds might have to score 10 times because a big night at the plate for the Astros is six hits and one run. Forget about Aaron Harang, as he’s about as average as they come but this isn’t the Phillies he’s facing. The Astros could make Larry King look good so there’s no reason Harang can’t get through this line-up without much damage. The same cannot be said for Brian Moehler. Moehler makes his first start of the year after working out of the pen all season. He’s been consistently bad and consistently hittable throughout his career and he’s now 38 years old with over 1500 career IP. In 18 innings this season the league is hitting .310 off him. He’s struck out six batters all season so you know 100% for sure the Reds will make contact. Wandy Rodriguez got roughed up last night, forcing the Astros to liberally use the bullpen (to little or no avail). With no offense, with a reliever pulling starting duties and a weary bullpen, the odds are hugely against the Astros in this one. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +1.19 over COLORADO

Simply put, the Dodgers plus a tag are a must play against Aaron Cook (-4 BPV, 2-1-2-4-0 PQS). Cook is getting rocked almost every start and he’s also issuing way too many free passes. He’s already walked 25 batters in 51 frames so he needs to throw more strikes or he needs to be more fortunate. Unfortunately, his 66% strand rate is lower-than-normal and is further exposing his flaws. The Dodgers have been killing righties as of late and Cook is certainly no stranger to them, as he’s been around for a long time and has pitched 108 innings against the Dodgers in his career. Hiroki Kuroda (95 BPV, 4-1-5-3-5 PQS) has been getting it done this season with great command, a low .221 BAA on the road and a string of strong starts. Over his last three starts he’s walked three and struck out 16. The choice here is not a difficult one. We’re taking back a price on a guy who has great command and strikes out guys in a park that rewards pitchers with those attributes. This park does not reward pitchers like Cook, who can’t find the strike zone. Cook has started four games in May and has allowed 30 hits in 22.1 innings, not to mention nine walks. Cook has been whacked in San Diego, he’s been whacked at PNC Park in San Fran, he was crushed in KC and chances are he’ll get whacked again here. Play: Los Angeles +1.19 (Risking 2 units).

TORONTO –1½ +1.10 over Baltimore

There’s no reason in the world to stop playing against the O’s now. Baltimore was shutout last night 5-0 and its road record is now 6-20. This is a frustrated and very mentally drained team right now and it’s not getting better. Thursday night’s loss was demoralizing and last night the 3-4-5 hitters went 6-11 but the O’s were still shutout because the rest of the batter’s went 2-24. Now the Orioles will look to Chris Tillman to get them right-sided. Don’t think so. Tillman had his moments last season when he went 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA but he’s not ready for this leap yet. He allowed 15 jacks in 65 innings and that’s a huge problem here, as the Jays lead the majors in going yard. Also, the roof will be open in Toronto this afternoon and living here, I can tell you that balls fly out of this park in day games with the roof open. Brett Cecil is a quality pitcher that keeps the ball down and that’s significant for this one. He’s coming off a two-hit, seven inning gem in L.A. against the Angels and he’s not taking a step up in class. In fact, Cecil has faced the Orioles twice in his brief career and has dominated them to the tune of a 1.74 ERA. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +1.32 over TAMPA BAY

Interesting match-up sees perhaps the league’s most overachieving team facing the league’s most underachieving squad. That’s not to suggest the Rays aren’t good because they most certainly are. However, they’re not going to continue to win seven out of every ten games because they’re not THAT good. Anyway, the South Side beat them last night and there’s a great chance for them to repeat that here. John Danks (85 BPV, 1-4-3-5-3 PQS) has had a terrific year thus far, compiling a 2.37 ERA through nine starts. The Twins scored three runs off of Danks on May 12th, but aside from that, he has held opponents to two runs or fewer in every start. Danks is pitching as good as ever and it’s also worth noting that RH batters are hitting just .196 against him. Wade Davis (2 BPV, 4-2-2-3-0 PQS) hasn’t had the same success as Danks this year and he can thank his poor control for that. That inefficiency, coupled with a 1.3 hr/9, has led to an ERA nearly twice as high as Danks, and is why he gets through 5.4 IP/start versus 6.7 for Danks. After taking two of three from the pathetic Astros, the Rays have just one win in five games. They’ve scored just six runs in those four losses and they don’t get a break facing Danks. Play: Chicago +1.32 (Risking 2 units).

ALTERNATE SERIES PRICE

CHICAGO –1½ games –1.29 over Philadelphia

This has to be considered the biggest finals mismatch in years and years. Chicago winning the cup is a forgone conclusion and it just doesn’t seem possible that the Flyers can push this juggernaut Western Conference Champ to seven games. The Flyers also had about the easiest trip to the Cup than any team has had in a long, long time. They played three extremely challenged offenses in the first three rounds (New Jersey, Boston and Montreal) and each one of those teams was more challenged than the last. The Devils were lifeless, they Flyers were extremely fortunate to get by the Bruins and the Habs two biggest threats were Mike Cammalleri and a defenseman that didn’t play a single regular season game. All three of those teams made Brian Boucher and Michael Leighton look like the second coming of Bernie Parent. The Flyers will have no such luck against the Blackhawks with a second-string goaltender, or any goaltender for that matter. Chicago is loaded offensively and may just average five goals a game in this series. All they did was beat the Preds, Canucks and Sharks, the latter in a complete sweep. Comparing that trio to the trio that the Flyers knocked off is like comparing Wayne Gretzky to Tie Domi. Folks, it’s worth repeating that this series is a complete and utter mismatch and if this ticket does not cash, it’ll be an absolute shock. No way do these Flyers hang with the Blackhawks, you can take that to the bank. Play Chicago –1½ games –1.29 (Risking 5.16 units to win 4).

James Patrick Sports

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Chicago Blackhawks

It's been a 13 year drought for the fans of the Philadelphia Flyers but what and enjoyable ride they have had this season as the Flyers needed a shootout win on the final day of the season to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs and now the "Big Orange" is playing for the most prized trophy in all of sports. This is the 8th time Philadelphia has made it to the Stanley Cup Finals, having lost 5 straight series, since winning consecutive Stanley Cup Titles in 1974 & 1975. The Flyers have done most of their damage in the second period of action as Philadelphia has out-scored their opposition (26-7) in second period action this postseason. The Flyers have lit the red lamp (54) times in this postseason which is (1) more goal than Chicago has accumulated but they have played (1) more game than the "Boys from Chi-Town" have to this point. Philadelphia gets it done with a Defense anchored by Chris Pronger and Matt Carle and their 9th goaltender of the season, Michael Leighton, has been getting it done between the pipes. The Flyers Leighton has bested the Bruins and the Canadiens, not the best offensive teams the NHL has to offer, while the Blackhawks goalie Antii Niemi has faced the Sharks and Canucks offensive arsenals. The Flyers are strong on their home ice at the Wachovia Center with a (7-1) postseason record but the Blackhawks are a solid road team this postseason with a (7-1) record as a visitor. This is a Chicago Blackhawks team that made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals last season before dropping a hard fought series to the Detroit Red Wings. Blackhawks Captain Jonathan Toews has clicked for (9) goals and (19) assists in (16) Playoff games with line mate Patrick Kane right behind with (7) goals and (13) assists. The Blackhawks are riding the play of a red hot goaltender in Antt Niemi who has been money between the pipes with a (2.33) goals against average and an outstanding (.923) save percentage in this Postseason. Chicago is (5-3) at home in the United Center this Postseason while the Flyers are (5-4) on the road in this season's Playoffs. The first (5) games of this series will have (1) day of rest separating games and with (1) day of rest between games the Blackhawks are (33-17) including (10-2) in the Postseason while Philadelphia is (33-29) when they have just a (1) day break in the action. Chicago has a deep team that will wear down the Flyers early in this series and we look for Chicago to gets this over with quickly as we call the Chicago Blackhawks in (5) games to win the 2010 Stanley Cup Championship.

EZWINNERS

San Francisco Giants -165

The Giants starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez has had many tough breaks this season due to a lack of run support. Sanchez has not allowed more than four runs in any of his starts this season but only has one win to show for it. The left hander has a strikeout to walk ratio of 56 to 25 and an ERA of 3.00. I expect Sanchez to pitch another strong game and for his offense to finally give him some run support against Arizona's struggling starting pitcher Billy Buckner. This could very well be Buckner's last start if he continue to pitch poorly. In his first two starts Buckner has pitched only nine innings and allowed nine runs which included seven runs on eleven hits in only four innings this Sunday against the Blue Jays. The Giants are 4-1 in Sanchez's last five home starts against the Diamondbacks and I expect that success to continue. Play on San Francisco.