Gill Alexander
DET (-125) vs OAK
Anderson hasn't pitched since April 24th and will be held to around 75 pitches today. That means we'll be seeing a lot of the Athletics pen today, an outfit that is middle-of-the-road at best with both an FIP and xFIP of 4.30. Porcello has allowed just 2 extra base hits in his last 3 outings combined. He's coming off a quality outing v LAD in which he went 6IP and gave up 2ER on 9H. Most significantly, Porcello is the 4th unluckiest pitcher in baseball this season with a whopping .356 BABIP mark. That indicates that a bit of regression to the mean is in store for today. The Tigers have won 10 of 14 at Comerica and 6 of 9 v Oak there. We lost backing the Tigers v the A's in our Game of the Week yesterday but I see absolutely no reason to doubt the metrics that went in to it. Nor do I doubt them today.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play: New York Mets
After a stellar series against the Phillies, the Mets head out on the road to face Milwaukee where they have won 6 of the last 8 in the series. Milwaukee fields with a 1-9 mark behind lefty Parra in this price range and 3-10 in game #2 of a series with the hurler. We close with New York a perfect 5-0 as an underdog.
DUNKEL INDEX
LA Lakers at Phoenix
The Suns look to stay alive in the series and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as a home favorite from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Phoenix is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Suns favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1 1/2)
Game 523-524: LA Lakers at Phoenix (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.375; Phoenix 129.582
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 222
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 216
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1 1/2); Over
MLB
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs look to bounce back from yesterday's loss and build on their 5-0 record in Carlos Silva's last 5 home starts. Chicago is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-135)
Game 901-902: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Ottavino) 15.399; Cubs (Silva) 16.165
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-135); N/A
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Nieve) 15.759; Milwaukee (Parra) 14.649
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Over
Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burres) 15.707; Atlanta (Medlen) 15.664
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+170); Over
Game 907-908: Houston at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 13.922; Cincinnati (Harang) 16.106
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Over
Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.313; Florida (Johnson) 15.326
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); Under
Game 911-912: LA Dodgers at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 16.132; Colorado (Cook) 17.292
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130); Under
Game 913-914: Washington at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martin) 13.702; San Diego (Latos) 15.426
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-175); Over
Game 915-916: Arizona at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 14.505; San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.319
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+145); Over
Game 917-918: Baltimore at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 13.422; Toronto (Cecil) 15.849
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-185); Over
Game 919-920: Cleveland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 13.858; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.969
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-320); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-320); Over
Game 921-922: Seattle at LA Angels (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.013; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.799
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200); Under
Game 923-924: Texas at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 15.952; Minnesota (Pavano) 15.599
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115); Under
Game 925-926: Oakland at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.439; Detroit (Porcello) 16.303
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Under
Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.225; Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.374
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Under
Game 929-930: Kansas City at Boston (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 16.764; Boston (Buchholz) 17.522
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under
NHL
Philadelphia at Chicago
The Blackhawks look to build on their 6-2 record in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite from -150 to -200. Chicago is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-200)
Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 13.302; Chicago 14.389
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-200); Under
WNBA
Chicago at Minnesota
The Lynx look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is coming off an 84-75 win over Seattle and is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games following a SU win. Minnesota is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3)
Game 601-602: Chicago at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 105.817; Minnesota 112.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 158
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 162
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Under
Game 603-604: Indiana at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.532; Tulsa 112.743
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 155
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+5); Over
Stephen Nover
The Colorado Rockies are playing well, at home and the Los Angeles Dodgers are missing their best hitter, injured outfielder Andre Ethier.
Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda has been steady, but has had problems when facing the Rockies. He's 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA in four career starts versus Colorado.
Kuroda has pitched once at Coors Field and yielded five runs in six innings.
Aaron Cooks gets the start for Colorado. The Rockies have won during Cook's past five home starts.
Cook is only 1-3 with a 5.33 ERA on the season. These figures are somewhat misleading, though. Cook is a sinkerballer. He needs to get a lot of groundball outs to be effective.
Cook has induced 33 ground ball outs to nine fly ball outs, which is a very good sign. Cook hasn't been lucky, however, as a number of ground balls have been just out of reach of his fielders. Cook has a better history than this. Look for his luck to change and for the Rockies to win this game.
5♦ ROCKIES
Karl Garrett
G-Man going with a rare baseball free play total for the Saturday card, as I like the Mets and Brewers to stay under the run total.
Both teams have suffered severe power outages at the plate their last few games, and I don't see anything changing tonight.
With last night's low-scoring affair the New Yorkers have played under the total in 4 in a row, and 8 of their last 11 games, while the Brew Crew have been low in 5 in a row, and 7 of their last 11 games.
Fernando Nieve and Manny Parra may have only seen limited starting action this season thus far, but the way the teams bats have been quiet, I believe both Nieve and Parra can hang some zeros on the Miller Park scoreboard tonight.
G-Man playing the under in the Mets-Brewers game.
1♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
My FREE play run sits at 102-82-3 and tonight I have a freebie coming on the Rockies as they host the Dodgers.
The Dodgers ended Colorado’s five-game winning streak on Friday with a 5-4 victory, but tonight the play is the Rockies as they’ve got Aaron Cook on the hill at home.
Cook has done well against the Dodgers over the last few years, limiting them to three runs or less in five of his last seven starts. He’s only had three home starts this season but he hasn’t allowed an opponent more than three runs, including the Phillies back on May 12 when he allowed three runs over six innings of a 4-3 win.
Hiroki Kuroda goes for the Dodgers after facing the Tigers on Sunday, giving up three runs on six hits over six innings and losing 6-2.
Colorado is on several positive streaks, including 56-25 at home, 40-19 against right-handed starters, 4-0 on Saturday and 5-0 when Cook goes at home.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are just 4-9 as road ‘dogs and 4-10 when Kuroda pitches as a road pup.
I’m going with the home team in this one as Cook will deliver the winner. Play Colorado.
2♦ COLORADO
Chuck O'Brien
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes from Detroit, and I’ll play the Tigers-A’s game UNDER the posted total.
You always start with the pitching matchup when playing totals, and this one features Brian Anderson of Oakland against Rick Porcello of Detroit. Anderson has made just four starts this year, but he’s given up just six earned runs in 23 innings with a 17-4 strikeout to walk ratio. And in his only road start, Anderson blanked the Mariners over six innings (the A’s eventually lost 3-0). In fact, Oakland has scored just four runs total in Anderson’s last three starts, and three of the left-hander’s four games this season have featured final scores of 6-2, 3-0 and 6-1.
As for Porcello, he’s been turning things around of late. He’s got a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts, including a 6-2 win at the Dodgers on Sunday (he gave up just two runs in six innings against a team that destroys right-handed pitching). He also blanked the powerful Yankees on four hits over seven innings of a 2-0 home win on May 12.
With Anderson pitching from the left side, it’s interesting to note that the Tigers are batting just .235 as a team against southpaws at home. Meanwhile, when facing left-handed pitching, Oakland hit just .254 overall, .243 on the road and a paltry .227 over the last 10 games.
Finally, the A’s have stayed under the total at a 7-1-1 rate in their last nine games overall, including 5-2-1 on the road, and four of Anderson’s last five road starts have played to the under. Meanwhile the under is 7-2-2 in Detroit’s last 11 games at Comerica Park. Also, the under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these squads.
3♦ UNDER
Brett Atkins
Tonight's free winner comes from the American League diamond as I go with the Red Sox at home to take care of the Royals.
Boston has traditionally dominated the Royals, winning 20 of the last 28 meetings, but they’ve dropped the first two games of this series. Tonight that short losing streak ends when the Red Sox send Clay Buchholz (6-3, 3.07 ERA) to the mound at Fenway Park opposite Zack Greinke (1-5, 3.57).
Buchholz already beat the Royals back on April 11 and he’s won his last three overall, posting a 1.77 ERA, allowing just four runs over his last 20.1 innings. He shut down Tampa Bay on one run over six innings of a 6-1 win in Tampa on Monday.
The Red Sox have beaten the Royals 13 of the last 20 times they’ve met at Fenway and they’ll get back on the winning track with this one. Play Boston in this one.
4♦ BOSTON
JOEL TYSON
Looking at the total in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, and after a Game 5 under, I think we go back to an over in Game 6.
The Lakers are on a playoff 10-2-1 over run their last 13 postseason dates, while the Suns have gone over the playoff total in 7 of their last 9 postseason battles.
7 of the last 10 series meetings played at the America West Arena have landed on the high-side, and with the Suns now staring down the barrel of elimination, we could see plenty of end of the game free throws that aid in getting this game over the total for the 5th time in 6 games.
Take the over.
3♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Toronto blanked the Orioles 5-0 and easily covered the run-line to cash Friday’s 5♦ freebie. I’m now on runs of 82-48-2 and 43-26 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, I’ll head to the new Target Field in Minnesota and play the Rangers plus the money at the Twins.
Both of today’s starting pitchers – Texas’ C.J. Wilson and Minnesota’s Carl Pavano – are coming off back-to-back ugly starters. Wilson gave up 12 runs in 10 innings to the Angels and Cubs; Pavano yielded 10 runs in 12 innings to the Brewers and Blue Jays.
The difference here is I trust Wilson, a quality lefty, to rebound today much more than I trust Pavano, who when not injured has been wildly inconsistent in recent years. And when you compare the two pitchers’ statistics – even including the most recent struggles – you’ll see that Wilson is stronger in every way. Consider:
Wilson has a 3.07 ERA overall in nine starts (six Texas wins), a 1.83 ERA in three road starts (two Texas wins) and 2.36 ERA in four day games. Pavano has a 4.17 ERA overall in nine starts (Minnesota is 4-5), a 4.45 ERA in five home starts (Minnesota is 2-3) and a 5.45 ERA in six day games (Minnesota is 2-4). Most recently, the Rangers are 6-1 in Wilson’s last seven starts; the Twins are 1-4 in Pavano’s last five.
One more important note about Pavano: His only three starts against Texas came last year (one with the Indians, two after being dealt to the Twins), and here were the results: 16 runs, 19 hits, seven walks, three home runs in 11 innings.
Take the better pitcher at an underdog price.
4♦ TEXAS RANGERS
Rocketman
LA Dodgers @ Colorado
Play: LA Dodgers +120
LA Dodgers are 14-4 this year against division opponents. LA Dodgers are 18-7 this year when playing in May. LA Dodgers are scoring 5.5 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Hiroki Kuroda is 5-2 with a 3.03 ERA overall this year, 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA his last 3 starts. Aaron Cook is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA overall this year. LA Dodgers are 27-13 overall vs Colorado the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight!
MTI Sports
White Sox at Rays
Prediction: Over
The White Sox are 6-0 OU on the road when they lost the last time they faced their opponents starting pitcher and the Rays are 5-0 OU as a home favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks. Take these two OVER.
BEN BURNS
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
The Nationals grabbed yesterday's opener. However, the Padres should be able to bounce back here. Latos is 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA in five starts this month. That includes a 2-0 record with a sizzling 1.29 ERA and 0.667 WHIP his last three.
JD Martin gets the call for the Nats. He was 5-4 with a 4.44 ERA in 15 starts last year, which was his rookie campaign. This is his first big league start of the season though and with Latos in such excellent form, he's unlikely to get much run support.
Even with yesterday's loss, the Padres are still 7-2 the last nine times that they hosted the Nats, going 15-5 the last 20 times that they hosted the Nats/Expos. With the line having come down a little from its opening number, I feel we're getting reasonable value. Consider laying the wood.
Tom Freese
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
White Sox starter John Danks is 8-0 his last 8 Saturday starts. Chicago is 21-6 their last 27 Saturday games. The Pale Hose are 4-1 their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. The White Sox are 5-0 their last 5 road games when the Total is set at 7.0 to 8.5. Tampa starter Wade Davis has lost 3 of his last 4 starts. The Rays are 21-22 against the money line in home games vs. teams who average 2.75 or less over the last two seasons. PLAY ON CHICAGO
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -127
Look for the Tigers to bounce back strong today against Brett Anderson, who will be making his first start since the end of April. Porcello appears to have gotten things turned around. He's 3-1 at home this season and he is carrying a low 2.70 ERA over his last 3 starts. In addition, Detroit has a fantastic bullpen (2.62 ERA), and that bodes well for us considering road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (OAKLAND) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, are 44-9 the last 5 seasons. We'll ride this time-tested 83% system to the winner's circle today.