Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, May 4

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Boston at Texas
The Red Sox look to bounce back from last night's 7-0 loss and build on their 5-1 record in their last last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Boston is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140)

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.908; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.059
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); N/A

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Milwaukee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.090; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.950
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under

Game 955-956: Washington at Pittsburgh (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.936; Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.278
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Under

Game 957-958: Miami at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 14.581; Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.145
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+195); Over

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 13.619; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.134
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Under

Game 961-962: Arizona at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 16.244; San Diego (Richard) 15.450
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Magill) 15.079; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.146
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 15.525; NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.450
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Over

Game 967-968: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 15.575; Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.205
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Over

Game 969-970: Seattle at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.122; Toronto (Dickey) 14.511
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-125); Under

Game 971-972: Baltimore at LA Angels (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Garcia) 14.579; LA Angels (Hanson) 14.206
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Axelrod) 14.810; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.409
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-145); Under

Game 975-976: Detroit at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.091; Houston (Harrell) 13.574
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-185); Over

Game 977-978: Boston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 15.616; Texas (Ogando) 14.711
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140); Under

Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 16.254; Colorado (Garland) 16.601
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Over

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: SeattleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A bit of juggling in the Mariners' rotation has Hisashi Iwakuma (suitably recovered from a blister on his finger) on the mound against the Blue Jays on Saturday, with Joe Saunders pushed back to Sunday Which is good news today for Seattle, considering Iwakuma's sparkling numbers that include a 1.67 ERA and 0.69 WHIP this season. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays continue to flounder at 10-19, and now off a shutout loss to Felix Hernandez on Friday night. Starter R.A. Dickey has not looked good lately, either, with a 4.50 ERA this season amid concerns about a strained back and neck. Note Seattle has also won six of the last seven vs. Toronto.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston vs. TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rangers welcomed the Red Sox to Texas in Game 1, by opening up a can of old fashioned butt whuppin'. With John Lackey on the mound tonight in Game 2, we might expect a lot more of the same.
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Lackey (1-1, 2.61 ERA) appears to have had a successful return from Tommy John surgery. Let's have a look at that though, his only victory came against the Astros, who sit firmly planted in the AL West cellar. His other start was a loss to the AL East cellar rats, the Toronto Blue Jays. Needless to say, facing the Rangers in Arlington is a whole different kettle of fish.
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The Rangers will hand the ball to Alexi Ogando, who has gone three starts without a win. He didn't get much in the way of run support in those games though, and for the most part he was solid. He's only had one previous start at home, and the Rangers won that game 5-4 over the Rays.
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Ian Kinsler will be one player to watch tonight, he's rocked Boston pitching, hitting .417 over his last 10 against the Red Sox. He's having a great season so far, currently on a nine game hit streak, and leading the team in average as well as hits.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit vs. HoustonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Max Scherzer (3-0, 4.02 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors; Scherzer struck out 10 over 7 1/3's frames of work in his team's eventual 4-3 win over the Twins on Monday; he gave up three earned runs off six hits with zero walks in the masterful overall performance. So far the veteran has 46 K's over his 31 1/3's innings of work (note that Scherzer was 9-4 with a very respectable 3.92 ERA on the road last year). Scherzer will be opposed by Lucas Harrell (3-2, 3.60 ERA) who gave up one earned run off eight hits with a walk over 6 1/3's frames in his team's win over the Yanks on Monday. The right-hander has given up just four earned runs over his last 19 innings of work; in fact, Harrell has allowed just five earned runs over his last 24 2/3's frames of work to go along with 18 K's (note that Harrell was 6-3 with a 2.34 ERA in friendly confines last season). These are two studs duelling it out on Saturday night. Expect them to battle into the latter frames and consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland Athletics at New York YankeesVISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: New York YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Yankees send Phillip Hughes to the mound against the A's in Game Two of this three-game series in the Bronx, the Bombers will do so knowing the right hander is in great KW form with 21 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts. He is also 7-1 his last eight home team starts during the month of May. With Oakland's Bartolo Colon 1-3 with a 13.57 ERA in his last four starts in this park, look for the Pinstripes to come up big this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Yankees.

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland A's vs. New York YankeesVISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oakland A'sFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Money Ball is alive and well as Griffen and the A’s bullpen shutout the Yankees Friday night 2-0. The simulator shows a high probability that the A’s will win Game 2 of this sires in the Bronx. Yanks have no significant base stealing threat and are not fast on the bases when balls are in play. A’s are a solid 27-16 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when facing poor baserunning teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons; 19-9 (+12.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last 2 seasons; 29-11 (+19.4 Units) against the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons; 24-14 (+11.5 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. Yanks start the often inconsistent starter Hughes, who has not well against the A’s in his five career starts. He has posted a 6.00 ERA with a 1.407 WHIP against the A’s. This is a day game and the bright cloudless sky is going to make it even better for A’s hitters to attack Hughes’ fastball. Take the A’s.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cincinnati RedsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds fit a nice system here that has won 10 of 12 times and plays on road favorites off a road dog win by 1 runs , if they scored 5 or more runs and are taking on an opponent off a 1 run home favored loss that also scored 5 or more runs and had 10 or more hits. if the total was 8 or less. The Reds have Cingrani going and he has better numbers than Cubs Starter J. Samadzija. The Cubs are 3-10 vs winning teams and 4-9 in day games. The Reds have won 12 of the last 14 in this series and we will back them here today.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The under is 7-2-1 in the Rangers last 10 home games. The under is 9-4 in Texas' last 13 Saturday games, and the under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. On the season, the under is 2-0 in John Lackey's starts, and 4-1 in Alexi Ogando's starts.

Jim Feist

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota is in Cleveland, a very good hitter's park, which will help the Twins bats. It will also help their bats facing Scott Kazmir, who has walked 5 in 8 innings with 13 hits allowed for an 8.64 ERA. Even in his good days he struggled against the Twins with a 2-4 record and a 4.26 ERA against them. Minnesota has a quality arm in Kevin Correia (3-1, 2.23 ERA) who is off to a great start. Correia had his best outing so far on Sunday afternoon against the Rangers. He worked eight scoreless innings, giving up six hits while striking out two. The Twins are 4-1 in Correia's last 5 starts. The Indians are 16-37 against a right-handed starter and the Twins are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland. Play the Twins.

John Ryan

25* Baltimore Orioles

Chase Diamond

8* San Diego Padres

CRAIG DAVIS

Your free play of the day is on the NY Yankees over the Oakland A's after dropping a 2-0 decision last night despite a good outing from CC Sabathia.

While I don't believe the Yankees will get the same type of outing they did with Sabathia, Phil Hughes only plays poorly in April, but settles down till September, according to his stats page.

The Yankees offense won't likely get shut out many times, but yesterday Griffin just had their number and did everything in his power to get through the game with while not scoring a ton of runs.

He did his job.

The problem is, the New York offense didn't.

Not today. I believe you'll see them play much better offensively. Griffin is a good pitcher who had their number. Colon isn't that same type of pitcher.

Plus, the Yankees know about Colon from the two years he spent with them a few years back. His fastball isn't jumping and his off-speed stuff isn't as accurate. He's older, can you really blame him?

The Yankees know they need home wins, and today they get one.

Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.

3* N.Y. YANKEES

BRAD WILTON

For Saturday, go with the Reds to once again handle the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Yesterday, Cincinnati opened the weekend set by edging Chicago 6-5, and this afternoon they do have the impressive rookie Tony Cingrani on the hill looking to keep his ledger clean.

Cingrani is off to a 2-0 start in his 3 assignments thus far this season, and the southpaw has been quite effective, fanning 28 in his 18 innings pitched, while allowing just 3 earned runs to cross.

Jeff Samardzija will counter looking for his first win since opening day, as Samardzija is now 1-4 on the season for the Cubbies.

The Reds have gone 18-5 their last 23 meetings against their division-rival, winning 3 of the 4 games played already this season. Cincy has also won their last 7 games played at the Friendly Confines, and with the Cubbies getting their first look at this impressive rookie Cingrani, I can definitely see Cincinnati extending those marks I just mentioned at the expense of Samardzija.

Go with Cincinnati as your Saturday free play of the day.

4* CINCINNATI

BRETT ATKINS

My free winner is another NBA total, as I feed off yesterday's winner on the Under in the Knicks/Celtics game. Tonight I'm playing the Over in the Bulls/Nets game, as I think the Bulls have no choice but to play an uptempo game and get their perimeter game to stay alive.

As banged up as Chicago is with its defensive stars, its job will be to fire at free will and take Brooklyn and its crowd out of the game. The Bulls are capable, believe me, and if they get hot from the outside, even if it's in the second quarter only, to take a momentum-gaining lead into the locker room, it'll help this total by the end of the game.

With the Nets, they're simply going to play their game on their own court, and much of that has to do with pushing the tempo in transition and trying to suffocate an opponent with a balanced attack at both ends.

I just don't think 181-1/2 points is enough to contain these two. Play it high.

2* OVER Bulls/Nets