Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday May, 5

Marc Lawrence

Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets

The surprising Mets host the Diamondbacks in Game Two of this three games series when Johan Santana faces Patrick Corbin in a matchup of a savvy veteran against a shell shocked rookie in New York Saturday afternoon. Santana takes the hill knowing he is 3-1 with an eye-popping 0.62 ERA in his MLB career teams starts against Arizona. Santana is also 15-2 his last 17 home team starts during the month of May. On the flip side, Corbin enters off his first MLB victory in his last start when he lasted 5.2 innings while allowing 11 base runners and three runs in a phony 'inside-out' 9-5 win at Miami this past Monday. With that look for Santana to improve to 16-2 in his last 18 home team starts during the month of May here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

John Ryan

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

5* graded play on the Los Angeles Clippers as they take on the Memphis Grizzlies set to start at 4:35 PM ET, Saturday, May 4, 2012. This first round Western Conference matchup is all even at one game each. Historically, there will be a very significant advantage for the winner of this game to win the series.

Lets take a look at the technical edges of this game that favor the Clippers to win this game and take control of the series. The simulator shows a high probability that the Clippers will win this game by four or more points.

The simulation further shows a high probability that Memphis will score between 93 and 98 points, will grab between 10 and 15 offensive rebounds, and will force 13 to 17 turnovers in this game. In past games, Memphis is 2-10 ATS losing 9.0 units per one unit wagered in road games when they allow 93 to 98 points in a game this season; 15-24 ATS losing 11.4 units per one unit wagered when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 13-25 ATS losing 14.5 units per one unit wagered in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers this season.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 73-36 making 33.4 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on home favorites after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread and in a game involving two good teams with winning percentages between 60% to 75% on the season. Of the 109 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 44 of them or 40%, covered the spread by seven or more points. This system si 5-2 ATS for 71.4% winners this season.

Here is a supporting system that works against Memphis and has gone 49-22 ATS for 69% winners since 1996. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is a cold team failing to cover the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games and is a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days. Of the 71 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 29 of them or 41.4%, covered the spread by seven or more points.

Both of these system underscore my strong belief that this the Clippers will win this game by 10 or more points.

Despite the Clippers pounding play if Blake Griffin, they are not a strong foul drawing team. However, Memphis is just 6-14 ATS losing 9.4 units per one unit wagered when facing poor foul drawing teams that are attempting 24 or fewer free throws per game with the game taking place in the second half of this season.

Take the Clippers to win big as a 5* graded play.

Rob Vinciletti

Blue Jays vs. Angels
Play: Under 7

The Angels have had problems scoring this season but they do have solid pitching which makes them an under team. The Angels have stayed under in 11 of 12 vs winning teams, 25 of 34 as a home favorite from -150 to -175, 12 of 17 at night and 11 of the last 12 overall. Toronto have gone under in 8 of 11 on the road as they hit just .220 away from home. Both teams have solid bullpen era and a pair of starting pitchers that also suggests an under. K. Drabek had gone under in both road starts and was solid here last season going 6 innings allowing just 1 earned run. CJ. Wilson goes for the Angels and he has 2 of 3 unders vs the Jays and went 7 solid innings at home against them last season allowing just 1 run. With the Angles scoring under 3 runs per game the past week we will back the under here tonight.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Braves @ Rockies
PICK: Over 10

Jamie Moyer takes the mound again for the Rockies at home on Saturday, the 49 year old will look to rebound from a tough game his last time out. Given the fact that the old man is no longer capable of reaching a velocity of 80 MPH on his fastball, and he tends to give up a lot of hits because of that, he might be s### out of luck!

Moyer became the oldest pitcher in history to record a victory, with his only W of the season on April 17. His story has been romanticized in the sports pages and on television ever since, despite the fact his team has lost four of his five starts this season. Everyone wants to believe in the hype, that Moyer is ageless, and proof that you are never too old. Perhaps age is just a number, but there are other numbers that I am worried about, such as the speed of his fastball, the number of hits he gives up, and the fact he only has one victory this year.

I have been patiently waiting for things to blow up for Moyer, who I feel is on the verge of coming up with a real stinker. Coors Field is a ballpark known not to be kind to pitchers, and when you give up a tonne of hits, and can't get any mustard on your fastball, you are looking for trouble.

The Rockies lost to the Braves in a barn burner yesterday by a score of 9-8. The Braves send left-hander Mike Minor to the mound on Saturday, coming off a beating in his last outing, allowing seven runs, eight hits and four walks over six innings in a 9-3 loss to the Pirates.

This one is hardly shaping up to be a pitcher's duel, it looks like we are in store for a wild one in Mile High City.

Jack Jones

Miami Marlins -118

After a slow start, the Miami Marlins have finally turned it on. This has been one of the best road teams in the league to back over the last several seasons. Miami has been doing all of their damage on the road of late, winning four straight away from home.

I'll ride this hot streak tonight and back the Marlins to win a 5th straight game. This team is playing with a lot of confidence late in games right now having won all four by exactly one run during this streak. Of course, playing lowly San Diego (9-18) doesn't hurt, either.

Mark Buehrle has proven to be a solid addition to the rotation this season. While he has fallen on hard luck record-wise, Buehrle has posted brilliant numbers. The left-hander sports a 3.34 ERA and 1.175 WHIP through five starts this season.

Clayton Richard has struggled for San Diego, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in his last three outings. Richard is 2-14 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Buehrle is 40-15 against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.

San Diego is 4-18 against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Padres are 16-37 in their last 53 games vs. a left-handed starter. San Diego is 2-12 in Richard's last 14 home starts. The Padres are 0-8 in Richard's last 8 starts vs. NL East opponents. Bet the Marlins Saturday.

Jim Feist

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

Toronto is a long way from home, 3,000 miles, and they face an Angels team that is finally starting to hit. Blue Jays starter Kyle Drabek has struggled in his career against LA with a 7.88 ERA allowing 18 base runners in 8 innings. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, and 5-2 in their last 7 home games. LA goes with C.J. Wilson, the former Texas ace who has been great, with a 2.70 ERA fanning 30 in 33 innings and only 22 hits allowed. Play the LA Angels.

Dave Cokin

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Oakland Athletics

No question Jeremy Hellickson is very tough at home for the Rays, but with Tampa Bay missing its best offensive player, they figure to have trouble with a hot Bartolo Colon. Runs could be tough to come by here, but the Total is low. I see better value taking the generous dog odds with the A's.

SPORTS WAGERS

UTAH +6 over San Antonio

The Jazz lost the first game by 15 and the second game by 31. The Spurs have barely broken a sweat in this series but what those two blowouts have created is a number here that is probably higher than it should be. It’s not easy to pull the trigger on the Jazz because they’ve been outclassed by a wide margin in every department. However, Utah is a different team in Salt Lake. They went 25-8 at home during the regular season and play with much more confidence in its own barn. When they faced the Spurs at home during the regular season they lost by four and won by seven and there’s a great chance they’ll stay within range again here with the possibility of an upset. The Spurs could be a little too complacent right now and with the entire betting world spotting the number, it’s time to sell high and buy low on this host that plays a completely different game once they get on their own hardwood. Play: Utah +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

CHRIS JORDAN

This is the right time to jump on board the Pacers, as we're going to see the team that was so dom%k1%nant down the stretch. The loss to the Magic in Game 1 had to be an embarrassment, and that's probably what ignited the 93-78 blowout in Game 2. In Game 3, at Orlando, the Pacers rolled to a 97-74 win to go up 2 games to 1.

I think it is pretty clear how good the Pacers can be, for instance, they were trailing 50-45 early in the third quarter in Game 2, but then blew past Orlando after an extended 25-5 burst. Indiana outrebounded Orlando 14-0 during the stretch.

In Game 3, there was never any question who the better team was.

The Pacers, who finished behind top-seeded Chicago in the Central Division, haven't moved past the first round of the playoffs since 2005. They met the Magic four times in the regular season, and it was Orlando coming out with a 3-1 SU and ATS in the series.

But the key thing to note in this series this season is the road team won and covered three of the four meetings. It’s also important to note, the Magic had Dwight Howard all four games. Orlando has been the bread winner in this series, but Indiana is clearly the better team now. Make note the straight-up winner has covered seven in a row in this series.

I like the Pacers.

2♦ INDIANA

SEAN MICHAELS

In early NBA action today I'll go with Indiana (-5) in Game Four at Orlando.

After getting bushwhacked in the series opener at home, the Pacers have rebounded with consecutive double-digit wins, rolling 93-78 in Game Two on Monday at home and 97-74 in Game Three on Wednesday in Orlando.

In all three games the Pacers have dominated on the boards and their inside work was most productive in Game Three as a 46-33 advantage in rebounding translated in a 42-22 edge in points in the paint as Danny Granger had 26 points and nine boards while Roy Hibbert chipped in with 18 and 10.

Minus Dwight Howard, the Magic don't have any answers for Hibbert and David West. Ryan Anderson has been abused by both and his offensive game has suffered as he's totaled just 23 points in the series so far.

Indiana has done a progressively better job in each game of the series at defending the three ball and now the Pacers find themselves on the verge of taking a commanding 3-1 lead back home after today. They know the Heat are most likely going to close out the Knicks tomorrow and they don't want to prolong this series any further.

Would I have preferred to be laying -3 or -4? Absolutely. But then again, that's why this is my complimentary play and not my 100 Dimer like Memphis-LA.

3♦ INDIANA

CHUCK O'BRIEN

You know who also has something nailed down? That would be the Oklahoma City Thunder, who can wrap up their series with the defending world champion Dallas Mavericks tonight.

I didn't know he was capable of doing this so effectively, but All-Star Kevin Durant slowed the tempo in Game 3, as he walked the ball up and down the court, into and around Dallas' deflated defense. And even when the Mavericks laid back, vividly overwhelmed by the new sheriff in town, ahem, the Western Conference, Durant still pulled up his 'J' whenever he wanted.

Make room boys, as the Thunder have imposed its will on Dallas and will insure us a new NBA champion by completing the sweep tonight.

If the Thunder aren't running the ball effectively, scoring with swift moves to the hoop or point-blank aim from their sharpshooters, they're playing a stifling defense that Dallas clearly can't handle.

No team in league history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series, and I don't even think the Mavericks are going to be able to save face in this series and score a win. These are two opposite teams from last season, when the Mavs ousted OKC. This year the Thunder have been more aggressive with Dallas, than they were in last year’s playoffs.

Nothing changes from the first three games, as the Thunder move on.

4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

MATT RIVERS

Saturday's free pick winner will be to go with the obvious and play the rolling Spurs to make it 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in their series with the Utah Jazz.

I hardly think Utah getting to play this game on their home court is much of an advantage against a San Antonio team that is playing free and easy, and does not appear to be tired in the least at this time of the year.

The Spurs have blasted the Jazz in their first two games, and have now won 12 straight games, and 23 of their last 25 overall straight up. Against the spread it has been every bit as impressive as San Antone is on an 11-0-1 spread surge during their current win streak.

Versus the Jazzmen, the Spurs are 8-1 straight up the last nine series meetings, and 6-2-1 against the spread in those nine meetings.

I just don't see Utah doing anything today that can both San Antonio.

Lay away as the Spurs keep on rolling.

5♦ SAN ANTONIO

SCOTT DELANEY

I gave you the Houston Astros as a Pay-After release yesterday, and they got it done against the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals. A solid free winner will be the Astros once again, and just like last night, I won't list either pitcher in this one.

The Astros have won four straight after last night's win over St. Louis, and appear to be plenty prepared for their National League Central Division-rival.

Make note there aren't too many who know how deep this rivalry is, but as much as we hear about St. Louis-Chicago or St. Louis-Cincinnati, you better believe the Cardinals-Astros rivalry is as heated the Yankees-Red Sox.

And since the Astros pitching doesn't have to deal with Albert Pujols, who has astronomical career numbers against Houston, including a .311 batting average and 42 home runs, I think they'll be fired up for this game and series.

I'm siding with Houston in this one.

3♦ HOUSTON

JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday freebie is the Atlanta Braves to take care of the Colorado Rockies one more time.

Last night the Braves were extra-inning winners over the Rockies, and tonight they get to face veteran Jamie Moyer. Moyer is a nice story for sure, but I doubt that he will be greeted too nicely by the Atlanta bats.

The Braves have scored 24 runs their last three games, and appear to be locked in at the dish these days.

Atlanta has had their way with Colorado since last season, winning the last pair of meetings, and seven of the last nine overall dating back to last year.

Mike Minor has been scuffed up of late (4.87 ERA last three starts), but he has benefited from solid run support, as the Braves have won three of his five starts this season.

Jamie Moyer is just 1-2 so far this season, and the Rockies have been on the losing end four of the five times he has started this season.

As the small road chalk, I will back Atlanta to come through with the road win tonight at Coors Field.

2♦ ATLANTA