DOM CHAMBERS
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Seattle Mariners on the run line to beat the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins are struggling this season and their offense has been sporadic at best this season.
Seattle is not much better, but there is one player producing for the Mariners and that is Felix Hernandez.
His record is only 2-1, but his ERA is 2.23 and his WHIP is 1.038. Basically, he’s done his job, but can the Mariners give him some support?
That should not be a problem this time as the Twins are pitching Jason Marquis, who is not having an a good season. He is 2-0, but his ERA is a whopping 6.23 and his WHIP is 1.500. When he pitches, the Twins have given him some run support.
But the Twins will have their problems scoring in this spot against the Mariners.
3♦ MARINERS -1.5
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +107 over BOSTON
Today, the Red Sox’ ERA is 5.38 and they’ve allowed 32 jacks, the third worst in the league. It's an issue that dates back to last September. Since the start of that month, Boston is 17-34 with a 6.02 ERA. That's more than a quarter of a season worth of data. The move to promote Aaron Cook from the minors is one of desperation. Cook is 33-years old with over 206 starts and over 1300 IP. His career ERA is 4.53 and his career BAA is .294. Cook has started the season with an outstanding 1.89 ERA in 33 IP at Pawtucket but 13 strikeouts and 11 walks say this is the same pitcher we have come to know and avoid. There’s another reason he’s being called upon. Cook was likely to be recalled even without the need to replace Josh Beckett, as he had an out clause in his contract if he were not called up by May 1 and the Red Sox apparently did not want him to let him go. Add Kevin Youkilis to the DL, a horrible bullpen, Aaron Cook in the rotation and what we have here is a team in peril. The Orioles are winning a lot of games this season and the players are getting used to it. Jason Hammel’s 1.97 ERA is unsustainable but this guy is no fluke. It’s worth repeating that his rise started in spring training, when he came to camp with more velocity and a sinking fastball, which caused Chipper Jones to say he was the most impressive pitcher he faced this spring. Hammel has 30 k’s in 32 innings, a BAA of .200 and the Orioles have won four of his five starts. Hammel’s only loss was in his last start when the Yanks beat him 2-1. The Orioles come to the park this afternoon in a much better frame of mind after beating Boston 6-4 in 13 last night. The Red Sox come to the park dejected, last in the AL East and nothing but problems in the pitching department. Play: Baltimore +107 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +102 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates lineup continues to struggle so far this year, as they are last in the NL in runs scored and managed to play to form again last night with one run scored in the opener. James MacDonald comes in with a 2.97 ERA after throwing back-to-back gems against Colorado and Atlanta. A third straight gem is highly unlikely, as MacDonald cannot sustain that sharp ERA. His skills simply don't hold up. He has a fly-ball bias profile, which means more fly-outs than groundouts. His pitch mix is virtually the same as last season so we can't credit a new approach for his success. In fact, his 91.2 MPH average fastball velocity is 1.5 MPH less than last season. Even though it's too early to draw many conclusions from it, there's regression coming here. Mike Leake fought through both on-the-field and off-the-field adversity in 2011, ranging from a shoplifting charge to a six-start debacle at the start of 2011 (5.70 ERA, though 3.84 xERA) that landed him in the minors for the first time. He has one of the lowest fly-ball rates in the majors at 25%. Compared with 2010, Leake made huge strides in 2011, led by cutting his walk rate by nearly one-third. He's never been a huge strikeout guy but finished the year with impressive command. Leake is off to a slow start but there is real potential for a significant step forward. Sieze this buying opportunity while you can. Play: Cincinnati +102 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +152 over L.A. ANGELS
The Angels are 0-2 against the Blue Jays and have scored zero runs in the two games. They’re averaging 1.7 runs per game against all teams not named the Twins and they’re a huge risk laying significant juice. This team is reeling right now and there’s not a single reason in the world to not wager against them. C. J. Wilson is rock solid but you still need run support to win and right now nobody on this staff is getting any. That’s some added pressure on the starters, as they tend to try and be too fine because one run down seems like four. Kyle Drabek is not in the same class as Wilson but he does have plenty of upside. Drabek has all the skills that we look for in a starting pitcher with the exception of one. He has a high groundball rate of 52% and a strong strikeout rate in which he’s whiffed 26 in 30 frames. The problem is walks and after watching Henderson Alvarez and Brandon Morrow mow down these Angels hitters, he has to be thinking, “throw strikes”. Drabek has to cut down on his walks to stay at this level but the kid has nasty stuff and is real close to emerging as a legit breakout candidate. Based on the Angels inability to hit, this has to be considered a big-time overlay. Play: Toronto +152 (Risking 2 units).
Dave Price
NY Mets -141
The Mets have the edge with ace Johan Santana on the hill. They've won 3 of his 5 starts this season while he has posted a 2.25 ERA. His ERA is a sparkling 1.08 through 3 home starts. The southpaw has had plenty of success versus Arizona at 2-0 lifetime (3-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 0.62 in 4 starts. The D-backs took the first game of this series but have lost their last 7 Game 2's of a series. We'll bet the Mets.
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay Rays -155
Today's free play goes on the streaking Rays, who have won 6 in a row overall and 10 straight at home. Oakland scheduled starter Bartolo Colon is 0-4 with a 6.10 ERA in his last six starts versus Tampa Bay. The Rays' Jeremy Hellickson, who is 3-0 with a 2.51 ERA on the season, is a better option. He shouldn't encounter many problems against an Oakland club that is batting just .212. The Rays are a perfect 7-0 in Hellickson's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. We'll take Tampa Bay.
SPORTS WAGERS
Alan Belcher +222 over Rousimar Palhares
"Toquinho" Palhares is probably the most feared fighter in the UFC. With seven of 10 submission victories by ankle lock or heel hook it's no secret what his submission of choice is. While most fighters would be loathe to admit it, the fact is that there are many that have turned down a perspective bout versus Palhares due to the very realistic possibility that a loss will not only be very painful but could also result in a long injury layoff due to torn ligaments. Such injuries can also have long term consequences on a fighter’s career. Alan Belcher is a Muay Thai striker and at 6'2" and will stand six inches taller than Toquinho and he’ll also have a 4-inch reach advantage. While Palhares has worked hard on his striking, he will not abandon his meal ticket, which is his BJJ and only uses his striking to close distance and take fights to the mat. Although Belcher also has a BJJ black belt it would be folly for him to try his ground game out when he will have a big advantage if he can keep the fight standing. Palhares has ended eight fights by submission in the 1st round compared to only two in the 2nd round. That means that if this fight sees the 2nd round the chances of a Belcher victory greatly increase. "The Talent" is being overlooked for a couple reasons; an eye injury that kept him out of action until September of last year and the tear that Toquinho has been on. This is a winnable fight for Belcher if he plays it smart by keeping his distance and avoiding any kind of clinching. This line should be much closer. Value bet on Belcher here. Play: Alan Belcher +222 (Risking 2 units).
David Banks
San Antonio Spurs -5.5
The San Antonio Spurs (52-16, 44-20 ATS) have now won 12 consecutive games while going an incredible 11-0-1 against the spread in those contests, and they have absolutely dominated the first two games of this series vs. the Utah Jazz (36-32, 34-33-1 ATS). They easily have the best record in the NBA against the spread, as San Antonio began the year undervalued and the books still really have not caught up to them completely. The Jazz actually closed out the regular season well, so it remains to be scene if the return home for Game 3 makes then more competitive on Saturday night at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT at 10:00 ET on TNT.
The Spurs have become an offensive juggernaut this season, as they finished second in the NBA in scoring at 103.7 points per game during the regular season while leading the league in both field goal percentage and three-point shooting, and that offense has been on display in the first two games. San Antonio won Game 1 106-91 while shooting 47.6 percent from the field, and it put on a clinic in a 114-83 demolition in Game 2, shooting an unbelievable 57.3 percent overall (47-for-82) including 45.5 percent from beyond the three-point arc. The Spurs were double-digit favorites in both games but it still did not matter as they covered both contests handily. Furthermore, San Antonio's production did not slip on the road during the regular season as it went 22-11 straight up and 18-12-3 against the spread away from home while averaging 101.6 points. Now the Spurs slipped defensively during the regular year compared to past seasons, but try telling that to a Jazz team that shot a paltry 34.4 percent in Game 2.
It is easy to forget at this point that Utah earned the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference by winning it last five regular season games. The Jazz were also tough at home as usual this season, going 25-8 straight up and 20-13 ATS in this building while winning by an average of +6.0 points. They are not home underdogs very often but they went a nice 6-3 ATS and a commendable 5-4 straight up in that role this season, although they did lose here to the Spurs 106-102 back on February 20th. Utah certainly looked totally outclassed in the first two games, but home underdogs that are down 0-2 in a series have gone 23-13-1, 63,9 percent ATS since the 2001 playoffs, although it should be pointed out that the most recent loss came Thursday night when the New York Knicks lost to the Miami Heat.
The Spurs took three of the four regular season meetings, although it must be pointed out that they were a perfect 3-0 in meaningful games and that Utah's win on April 9th came with San Antonio sitting its entire Big Three of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, and even there, the Jazz only won by seven points. Also the 'over' is 5-2 in the last seven meetings here in Utah, and that would be 5-1 if you toss that game where the Spurs played their backups.
Jeff Alexander
LA Angels -155
The fact that LA is this big of a favorite with 6 fewer wins than its opponent should tell you something, especially since its opponent is putting a quality starter on the hill in Drabek. Consider that plays on home favorites -150 or more (LA ANGELS) that are a below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) and are matched up against a quality AL starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20), provided they are starting a pitcher who averages more than 6.5 innings per start, are 113-34 (76.9%) since 1997. These teams have won by an average score of 5.1 to 3.5. C.J. Wilson is certainly capable of a gem, and I like him to come up big for the Halos tonight.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Twins / Mariners Under 7
The Mariners and Twins face off at Safeco Field this evening with King Felix Hernandez (2-1, 2.33) vs Jason Marquis (2-0, 6.23). Both of these teams have been in a free fall, with Seattle losers of seven in a row, and Minnesota losing eight of their last ten games. Last night the Twins managed to come away with a 3-2 victory, and matched the amount of runs they scored in the entire three game set they had previously vs the Angels (all three runs came in game one, followed by two shutouts including Weaver's no -hitter). The lone bright spot for Seattle is King Felix who will be looking to give the hometown fans something to cheer about despite a 3-7 home record this season. The Seattle bats are struggling at home this season with a .199 BA and the wins have not been much more impressive on the road hitting .203, and .198 against righty's while wearing the road greys. With these two offensively challenged teams swinging the bats, we are not expecting many runs this evening and suggest making a play on the UNDER.
MLB Predictions
Toronto Blue Jays +155
The Blue Jays have taken both of the first two games of this series with exceptional starting pitching. Both Morrow and Alvarez pitched complete game shutouts to open the series, and Kyle Drabek takes the mound to continue the string of solid outings. Drabek has beat expectations to start the season, with his 2-2 record, 2.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and .217 opponents batting average. Over his 5 starts Drabek has allowed just 8 earned runs against and no more than 2 in a start. South paw CJ Wilson will be on the mound for Los Angeles as he looks for another quality start. Wilson is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .177 opponents batting average. Toronto’s win last night moved them to 16-11 on the season and 8-4 on the road, while the Angels fell to 10-17 and 7-8 at home. Although the Blue Jays have had a few slumps with the bats they are averaging 4.93 runs per game this season compared to the Angels at just 3.44 per game. The Jays are hitting .247 against lefties with a .332 OBP, while the Angels are hitting just .235 against righties with a low .284 OBP. Take note that the Angels are just 10-21 in their last 31 games dating back to last season, 0-6 in their last 6 vs AL East opponents, and 1-8 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Also note that the Jays have won 6 of these two teams last 8 meetings. The Angels have a slight advantage on the mound as Wilson has a more proven track record, but Drabek has looked great to start the season, the Blue Jays have won 6 of their last 7 games, and the edge with the bats goes to Toronto right now as well. At a +155 price sign me up for the Blue Jays again tonight.
WUNDERDOG
Indiana at Orlando
Pick: Under 182
This series has been entirely played on the defensive end of the court as these teams have averaged just 167 points per game and while the total has dropped a few points, it still doesn't reflect how this series is playing out. The Magic has brought the defense in the quarterfinals round of the NBA Playoffs where they are 18-7-1 to the UNDER in their last 26, including 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four as a playoffs dog. Take the UNDER.
Accuscore
Indiana Pacers -5 at Orlando Magic
The Pacers flat out are the better team in this series, and that was clear in the blowout in Game 3. Ryan Anderson has been completely shackled so far without Dwight Howard freeing up space for Orlando’s shooters on the perimeter. The advanced numbers for the Magic starting five (Nelson, Richardson, Turkoglu, Anderson, Davis) are grisly and there really isn’t a solution anywhere on the bench. This has the look of a quick five game series with the opening game being the one aberration.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Over 187.5
The AccuScore simulations for this game set the Over-Under line at 190 points. The Under has come through significantly more often in Memphis road games (24 of 33) and in Los Angeles home games (18 of 32) this season. This is a 4-star computer pick with a 22-10 record in Clipper games.