SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) at Atlanta (4-5 SU and ATS)
The Hawks will try to get back in their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series when they host Game 3 inside Philips Arena.
Orlando dominated Game 1 with a 114-71 victory as a nine-point home favorite, then the Magic pulled away in the fourth quarter on Thursday and scored a 112-98 win as a 9½-point chalk. Orlando, which trailed by eight points at halftime, outscored Atlanta 28-15 in the fourth quarter to get the win, and had four players in double-digit scoring, with Dwight Howard (29 points, 17 rebounds) leading the charge. Vince Carter added 24 points, while Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis chipped in with 20 points each and combined for 12 assists.
Orlando shot 55.9 percent from the floor Thursday and limited the Hawks to 41.3 percent shooting as the Magic won their sixth straight postseason game (5-1 ATS) and 12th straight overall (11-1 ATS).
Orlando has won and covered in eight of the last nine meetings with Atlanta dating to January 2009, going 5-1 SU and ATS this year. Additionally, the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Atlanta, and the favorite has cashed in five straight in this rivalry. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in 19 straight Hawks-Magic battles, and the straight-up winner is on a huge 24-0-1 ATS surge in Atlanta’s last 25 playoff games.
The Magic are 27-16 (24-18-1 ATS) on the highway this season and have won 10 of their last 11 away from home (8-3-1 ATS), including 2-0 SU and ATS in the first round in Charlotte. Atlanta has been superb at home this season at 37-8 (28-17 ATS), averaging 103.7 points a game while allowing just 95.1. The Hawks went 3-1 SU and ATS at Philips Arena in the opening round against Milwaukee, including a huge 95-74 win in Game 7 on Sunday, cashing as an 8½-point favorite.
Orlando is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 21-7-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 49-23-1 on Saturday, 38-18-1 against Southeast Division teams, 21-5-1 as a favorite, 13-3 as a road favorite, 6-0-1 after getting one day off and 4-0 in conference semifinal action. Atlanta, swept out of the conference semifinals a season ago by the Cavs (0-3-1 ATS), has cashed in four of five home games, but it is on pointspread skids of 2-5 overall, 2-6 after a non-cover, 2-8 against Southeast Division teams, 1-6 after a straight-up loss and 0-5-1 in conference semifinal action.
The Magic have topped the total in seven of 11 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” streaks of 52-23-1 after one day off, 5-2-1 as a playoff favorite, 6-1 against winning teams and 5-1 in conference semifinal action. Atlanta carries “over” trends of 20-8 after a non-cover, 8-2 as an underdog and 5-1 on Saturday, but it is on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-3 after a straight-up loss, 8-3 as a playoff underdog and 6-1 against teams with a winning record.
In this series, the under has been the play in six of seven overall and six of eight in Georgia, though Game 2 soared over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (6-2, 3-5 ATS) at Utah (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers will try to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the fifth-seeded Jazz when the two meet for Game 3 of their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
After hanging on for a five-point victory in Game 1 on Sunday, Los Angeles took a 2-0 series lead with Tuesday’s 111-103 victory in Game 2, cashing as a 5½-point home chalk behind 30 points and eight assists from Kobe Bryant and 22 points and 15 rebounds from Pau Gasol. The Lakers, who have won four in a row (3-1 ATS), outrebounded Utah 58-40 in Game and outshot the Jazz 50.6 percent to 39.6 percent.
The Jazz and Lakers met in the first round of the postseason last year with Los Angeles prevailing in five games (2-3 ATS) en route to the NBA title. Additionally, the Lakers won a six-game second-round playoff series from Utah two years ago. This year, L.A. took three of the four regular-season meetings (SU and ATS), and split two games in Utah, winning 96-81 in February as a 5½-point underdog.
Overall, Los Angeles is on a 20-6 roll against the Jazz overall (16-9-1 ATS).
The Lakers are 24-20 (18-25-1 ATS) on the road this season, but they’ve dropped six of their last eight (SU and ATS) overall on the highway, including going 1-2 SU and ATS in Oklahoma City in the opening round. Conversely, the Jazz dominate in front of the home fans, going 35-9 (29-13-2 ATS) this season and they come into this one having won 13 of 14 in Salt Lake City (11-3 ATS). Utah went 3-0 SU and ATS in three first-round home games against Denver.
Los Angeles has cashed in nine of its last 11 Saturday games and five of seven as a playoff underdog, but it is on negative ATS streaks of 2-6 on the road, 2-8 after a straight-up win, 1-4 as a road ‘dog and 1-11 after a spread-cover. The Jazz are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 36-17-3 overall, 37-15-2 as a favorite, 18-6-2 as a home favorite, 21-7 after a straight-up loss, 7-1-1 on Saturday and 4-1-1 as a playoff favorite.
The Lakers have topped the total in five of six overall, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-0 after three or more days off, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 12-4 as a road underdog and 10-4 as a pup of less than five points. On the opposite side, Utah has stayed below the posted number in 11 of 15 at home against teams with winning road records and seven of nine against winning teams, but it is on “over” runs of 5-0 overall, 6-0 after a straight-up loss and 5-0 in conference semifinal action.
In this rivalry, the under is 7-2 in the last nine games, including 4-0 in the last four played in Utah, but the over cashed in Games 1 and 2 in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (12-17) at Philadelphia (18-11)
The Braves give young right-hander Kris Medlen (1-1, 2.55 ERA) his first start of the season, while the streaking Phillies counter with Joe Blanton as this three-game weekend series between N.L. East rivals continues at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia got a complete-game, two-hitter from 47-year-old lefty Jamie Moyer on Friday and won its fourth in a row by routing Atlanta 7-0. The Phillies, who have surrendered just three runs during their four-game win streak, have also won six of their last seven, and they’re on additional surges of 45-22 at home, 5-1 versus the N.L. East and 21-8 against right-handed starters. However, Charlie Manuel’s squad has dropped 11 of 15 on Saturday.
The Braves are 1-3 on their current road trip and they’ve lost 12 of 16 overall, scoring three runs or fewer in 10 of the 12 defeats. Bobby Cox’s club has also lost 10 of 11 on the road and is in further slumps of 3-14 against N.L. East rivals, 3-7 against right-handed starters and 1-9 versus winning teams. The one positive for the Braves: They’ve won 10 of 14 on Saturday.
These teams faced off two weeks ago in Atlanta, and the Phillies took two of three. Going back to last season Philadelphia is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
Medlen has made 12 relief appearances this season and he’s surrendered six runs (five earned), 16 hits and three walks while striking out 16 over 17 2/3 innings. The 24-year-old California native made four starts as a rookie last year, giving up 13 runs in 18 1/3 innings (6.38 ERA), with the Braves going 1-3 in those four contests.
Medlen has faced the Phillies seven times (all in relief), allowing six runs on 10 hits in eight innings (6.75 ERA).
Blanton, who spent the first month of the season on the disabled list, finally made his first start Monday and got smacked around by the Cardinals, allowing four runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 home loss. Including three playoff starts, Blanton has allowed 22 runs (21 earned) in his last five starts spanning 30 1/3 innings (6.23 ERA).
Behind Blanton, the Phillies are on runs of 17-8 at home and 15-7 versus the N.L. East, but they’ve lost Blanton’s last four Saturday outings. Since getting traded from Oakland to Philadelphia in the middle of the 2008 season, Blanton has faced the Braves six times, going 1-1 with a 5.42 ERA. However, in two August starts two weeks apart last year, Blanton pitched seven innings in each contest and held Atlanta to three total runs (two earned), with Philadelphia winning both games by a 3-2 score.
The Braves are on “under” runs of 13-5-1 overall, 8-3-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1-1 against the N.L. East, but the over is 5-2-1 in their last eight on Saturday. Meanwhile, it’s been all “overs” for Philadelphia lately, including 13-7-1 at home, 11-6 versus division rivals, 14-4 against losing teams, 5-1 at home against losing teams and 25-13-2 versus right-handed starters. Also, the over is 4-1-1 in Blanton’s last six starts overall, but the under is 6-2-2 in his last 10 against the N.L. East and 5-1 in his last six on Saturday.
Finally, the under has been the play in 10 of the last 14 series meetings and five of the last six clashes at Citizens Bank, and the under is 3-0-1 in Blanton’s last four starts against Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (20-8) at Boston (15-15)
CC Sabathia (4-1, 2.74 ERA) looks to atone for a poor Opening Night outing at Fenway Park when he leads the Yankees against Clay Buchholz (3-2, 2.97) and the Red Sox in the middle game of a weekend series between division rivals.
New York used a six-run sixth inning to bust Friday’s game wide open and cruised to a 10-3 victory, running its winning streak to five in a row while halting Boston’s four-game uptick. Additionally, the Yankees have followed up a 1-4 slump by winning eight of nine, with all eight wins being by multiple runs. In fact, all 20 of the Yankees’ victories this year – and 26 of their 28 contests overall – have been decided by at least two runs. The defending champs are on further runs of 39-15 overall, 43-14 against divisional foes, 61-22 versus right-handed starters and 5-1 on Saturday.
Despite Friday’s debacle, Boston is still 11-6 in its last 17 games, going 8-3 at Fenway during this stretch, and the Sox have won five in a row against left-handed starters. On the downside, Terry Francona’s troops are in ruts of 6-17 against the A.L. East and 4-18 versus opponents with a winning percentage higher than .600.
The Yankees have now won three straight meetings against Boston – all at Fenway Park – since losing on Opening Night. Also, since dropping the first eight meetings with the Red Sox last year, New York is on a 12-2 roll against its archrivals, winning five of the last seven at Fenway. Still, the home team is 15-7 in the last 22 head-to-head battles.
Sabathia gave up five runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings in a season-opening start in Boston on April 4, failing to get a decision in New York’s 9-7 loss. Since then, however, the hefty lefty has delivered five straight quality starts, giving up a combined nine runs (eight earned) in 37 1/3 innings (1.71 ERA). On Monday, he limited Baltimore to a run on six hits in eight innings of a 4-1 home win.
With Sabathia on the bump, New York is on positive stretches of 21-5 overall, 10-3 on the highway, 9-2 against the A.L. East, 5-0 on Saturday and 5-0 in the second game of a series. Since the Opening Night loss in Boston, Sabathia is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in three road games. Finally, he’s now 5-7 with a 4.39 ERA in 12 career starts (playoffs included) against the Red Sox (2-3, 5.05 ERA in seven games at Fenway Park).
Buchholz surrendered a season-high four runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Angels on Monday, but the Red Sox offense picked him up and rolled to a 17-8 victory. Buchholz is now 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA in three home games this year, with Boston supporting the right-hander with 7.3 runs per game.
The Sox have won 12 of Buchholz’s last 16 starts, but they’re 4-12 in his last 16 against winning teams and 1-4 in his last five Saturday efforts. Buchholz has a 5.74 ERA in three starts against the Yankees, with Boston losing all three games. However, he pitched well in two of the contests, giving up one run in six innings of a 4-1 home loss in 2008 and two runs in six inning of a 5-0 road loss last August.
New York is on “over” runs of 15-5-2 on the road, 4-1-1 against righty starters, 4-1 on Saturday, 17-4 when Sabathia pitches on the road and 4-1 when Sabathia faces division rivals. Meanwhile, Boston has topped the total in five straight games on Saturday, four of five against lefty starters, seven of Buchholz’s last nine starts overall and five of his last six home outings.
Finally, the over has cashed in three of four meetings between these teams this year, and seven of the last eight clashes at Fenway have climbed over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Orlando at Atlanta
The Magic look to build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 road games. Orlando is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-2)
Game 721-722: Orlando at Atlanta (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 130.661; Atlanta 123.361
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 7 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-2); Over
Game 723-724: LA Lakers at Utah (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 118.829; Utah 120.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 4 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+4 1/2); Under
MLB
Toronto at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Chicago is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130)
Game 951-952: Florida at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.535; Washington (Chico) 14.771
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 953-954: San Francisco at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Wellemeyer) 15.851; NY Mets (Santana) 15.437
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-190); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+165); Under
Game 955-956: Atlanta at Philadelphia (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 15.385; Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.082
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+135); Over
Game 957-958: San Diego at Houston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Garland) 14.922; Houston (Paulino) 15.664
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Over
Game 959-960: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.366; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 14.422
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Under
Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gorzelanny) 15.024; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.201
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); Over
Game 963-964: Milwaukee at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 14.538; Arizona (Valdez) 15.291
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Under
Game 965-966: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 14.658; LA Dodgers (Haeger) 15.427
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Over
Game 967-968: Detroit at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.021; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.184
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under
Game 969-970: Baltimore at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Millwood) 15.158; Minnesota (Liriano) 17.177
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Boston (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.997; Boston (Buchholz) 15.103
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Over
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 17.461; Oakland (Sheets) 14.872
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Over
Game 975-976: Toronto at Chicago White Sox (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.056; White Sox (Peavy) 16.260
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130); Over
Game 977-978: Kansas City at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 15.810; Texas (Harden) 14.437
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+170); Over
Game 979-980: LA Angels at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 14.264; Seattle (Fister) 13.139
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+120); Over
Game 981-982: Baltimore at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.060; Minnesota (Baker) 17.275
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Detroit at San Jose
The Red Wings look to stay alive in the series and build on their 13-5 record in their last 18 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Detroit is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+125)
Game 5-6: Montreal at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.454; Pittsburgh 12.537
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-280); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-280); Over
Game 7-8: Detroit at San Jose (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.219; San Jose 12.913
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+125); Under
Marc Lawrence
San Diego Padres at Houston Astros
Prediction: San Diego Padres
The Padres meet the Astros in Houston this evening in Game Two of a three-game weekend set when Jon Garland matches serves with Felipe Paulino. Garland takes the mound knowing he is 2-0 in his career team starts in this park and 7-3 in his last 10 team starts during May. With Paulino in rocky current form and still in search of his first MLB victory, we'll back the Padres here tonight.
Cajun Sports
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds will be seeking a little revenge on Saturday for the 14 to 7 beat down they took at the hands of the Cubs on Friday night in the Queen City. The Cubs are 6-10 on the road this season averaging 3.7 runs per game with a batting average of .247. Chicago’s bullpen has also struggled away from the Second City with an ERA of 5.36 during the 2010 campaign. Cincinnati is 8-7 at home this season averaging 4.5 runs per game with a batting average of .256. Both teams will send starters to the bump that are having a tough season to date the Cubs will send Tom Gorzelanny who is 1-3 with an ERA of 2.48 and the Reds will send Aaron Harang to the hill with his 1-4 record and ERA of 6.68. Even though Harang has struggled this season we look for the Reds to bounce back from that embarrassing loss to the Cubs on Friday night and grab a game two victory in this situation. We also find solid technical support for the home team on Saturday night. The Cubs are 3-11 (-10.3 Units) in road games in May games the last 2 seasons, 4-10 (-9.8 Units) versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season, 1-7 (-8.5 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game this season, 8-17 (-14.2 Units) in road games versus an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons and 0-5 (-8.5 Units) with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games this season. The Reds are 49-33 (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record the last 2 seasons and 23-8 (+14.6 Units) in home games in May games over the last 3 seasons. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to Play AGAINST MLB NL road teams with a line in the current price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better during the current season, with a team OBP of .340 or better. Playing against these teams has produced a record of 36-12 for 75 percent winners and a profit of +24.5 units over the last five seasons. Our TPR Index favors the Reds in this situation by 1.82 runs over the Cubs on Saturday and our Math Model also favors the boys from the Queen City by 1.07 runs. The combination of these factors along with the fact we are backing a home underdog in a revenge situation should translate into an easy winner on Saturday night in Cincinnati.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Cincinnati Reds 4 Chicago Cubs 3
Steve Merril
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Detroit will send Justin Verlander to the mound who is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. Verlander struggled against Cleveland his first outing this season, but their lineup has taken a turn for the worse since then. In his last outing at Jacobs Field back in September of 2009, Verlander gave up just two runs and seven hits while striking out 11 in a 6-5 win. Grady Sizemore (12-49), Shin-Soo Choo (5-27), Asdrubal Cabrera (4-23), Mark Grudzielanek (4-19), Luis Valbuena (2-10) and Russell Branyan (1-6) all have poor hitting numbers against Verlander. Cleveland has scored a total of just 13 runs during their current four-game losing streak.
Cleveland’s Justin Masterson has a 10.80 ERA and a .423 average against in his first five innings this season. Left-handed hitters are batting .414 with a 1.148 OPS against Masterson this season. He took the loss in his only start against Detroit last season giving up eight runs and seven hits in four innings of work. The Tigers are averaging 5 runs per game against right-handed starters and they are hitting .287 against them. Verlander is going to shut down the Indians because the combination of a poor lineup and an ace finding his groove again is a bad match-up for Cleveland.
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were beat last night in extra innings 7-4 by the Toronto Blue jays. Toronto is hard team to figure this year as they seem to play better on the road. Tonight they fit a negative system based on their 5 straight road wins. On top of the system they have to face Jake Peavy tonight. The Jays hit Peavy pretty well at home last week. I expect Peavy will pitch much better tonight. Toronto counters with Lefty B.Cecil tonight. Chicago is a small favorite and based on the system that plays against the Jays we will take Chicago tonight to even the series.
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Braves +145
After getting shut out by 47-year-old Jamie Moyer, we'll get to see what the Braves are made of mentally Saturday. There's no doubt this team will come out embarrassed and wanting to do something about it against Joe Blanton and the Phillies. Kris Medlen has been inserted into the starting rotation for the first time this season after pitching very well out of the bullpen. Medlen has gone 1-1 witha 2.55 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 17.2 innings or work, striking out 16. Joe Blanton makes his second start of the season for the Phillies after giving up 4 earned runs on 10 hits and 1 walk against St. Louis in a 3-6 loss to the Cardinals 5 days ago. He is a notorious slow starter, and Blanton is just 6-14 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 16-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 10-4 in their last 14 Saturday games and 19-9 in their last 28 during Game 2 of a series. Take Atlanta on the Money Line.
Jim Feist
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
It's tough to trust the erratic Cubs when you see them get swept by the Pirates. Chicago even had an 11-1 loss at Pittsburgh as a favorite! They are also terrible on the road, while the Reds have been decent at home. Cincinnati is showing some spunk, winning 7 of 10 games, winning twice as a dog. Reds righty Aaron Harang struck out six and did not walk any his last start, so that's 2 straight decent starts. Play the Reds.
EZWINNERS
Minnesota Twins -230
The Twins starting pitcher Francisco Liriano is back to being the dominate pitcher that he was prior to his Tommy John surgery. Last season Liriano was not very good and it appeared that he tried to come back to early from the surgery. This season Liriano is more than two years removed from the surgery and judging by his recent performances he is all the way back. Liriano is 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA and has struck out 36 batters in 36 inning pitched. In one career start against Baltimore he is 1-0 having pitched seven strong inning of one hit baseball. I expect another dominating performance by him today against the struggling Orioles. Baltimore sends Kevin Millwood to the mound for their struggling team and Millwood has not had any success against Minnesota in the past. In twelve career starts against the Twins, Millwood is 0-7 with an ERA of 5.90. I don't expect anything to change for these two pitchers this time around. The Orioles are only 4-11 in the last fifteen meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Pay the price to play on the Twins or add this game to other to give yourself some value on a parlay.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Phillies over Atlanta
Love Kentucky Joe Blanton in his second start of the season down at the Bank on Saturday afternoon. In his first outing, the veteran hurler threw a beauty for six innings, but tired in the seventh finishing with 4/10 in six innings plus of work. Opposing, Kris Medlen, the some time starter-reliever gets the call for Atlanta in a very difficult park, especially considering he will be on a pitch count. Seemingly, it must be mentally troublesome throwing with a pitch limitation when going up against a strong hitting entity like the Phillies. I think the overall psychology of the game has the home club winning easily. Philadelphia is 5-0 when Blanton mounds versus a losing club and 45-21 at home against a losing unit with under a .400 mark. This plays into the Atlanta deficit of 1-9 in their most recent road outings.
James Patrick Sports
Royals vs. Rangers
The Royals Gil Meche is (3-6) with a (6.96) ERA at the Ballpark in Arlington while the Rangers starter Rich Harden is (2-0) with a (2.08) ERA this season to go with a career (2-0) record with a (1.42) ERA against the Royals in (4) career starts.Texas Rangers get the call as Big Game James Patrick's selection in Major League Baseball action on Saturday.
Karl Garrett
Olrando at ATLANTA
Friday comp play winner on the Yankees over the Red Sox, and now the G-Man turns his attention to the NBA for Saturday.
I will stick with the Under between Orlando and Atlanta, as Thursday the teams combined for a rare Over when they meet.
Prior to Thursday's Over, the previous 6 series meetings between the teams had held Under the posted price. In fact, 6 of the last 8 times Orlando has paid a visit to Hot-Lanta, the teams have held Low.
For the playoffs, the Magic is 3-2-1 Under the posted price in their 6 games played. As for the Hawks, Atlanta is on a 4-1 Under clip their last 5 postseason games.
Atlanta's lone chance to get a win in this series is to play some defense both inside and on the perimeter. Look for them to do all that is in their power to keep the Magic from netting triple-figures once again, and for Game 3 to hold Under the total.
3♦ UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
San Francisco at N.Y. METS
Still 12 of 18 free-play winners despite a bad call on the Celtics last night. Saturday’s complimentary release comes from baseball, and I’ll back the Mets on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Giants.
All about the pitching matchup in this one, as Johan Santana matches up against Todd Wellemeyer. You know Santana will be out for some BIG redemption after getting blasted Sunday night in Philadelphia, where he gave up 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings of an 11-5 loss. Prior to that start, Santana had won three straight games while giving up just one run, 16 hits and four walks while striking out 20 in 19 1/3 innings. Suffice it to say, I’m willing to give the former Cy Young winner a mulligan, especially considering he faced one of baseball’s premier offenses in one of the worst pitcher’s parks.
Wellemeyer gets no such mulligan. Although he’s coming off his best start of the season – a 6-2 home win over (ironically) the Phillies – he’s still 1-3 with a 5.55 ERA on the season, including 0-2 with a 10.12 ERA in two road starts (nine runs allowed in eight innings, losing to the Dodgers 10-8 and Padres 5-2). And in eight appearances against the Mets (four starts), Wellemeyer is 0-2 with a 6.67 ERA
Last night, New York blew a 4-3 ninth-inning lead against San Francisco, but got a walk-off two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth to prevail 6-4. That gives the Mets eight straight home wins and 10 in their last 11, and nine of those 10 wins have been by multiple runs. Finally, the Giants have now dropped 11 of 14 to the Mets, going 2-7 in their last nine trips to the Big Apple.
2♦ N.Y. METS -1.5
Derek Mancini
Tampa Bay (-145) at OAKLAND
How the mighty have fallen. After getting blasted in back-to-back starts Ben Sheets (1-3, 7.12 ERA) finds himself in the unenviable position of trying to bounce back against the best team in baseball right now. Not only do the Rays carry their 13-1 road record into this contest, but they crushed Sheets the last time they saw him (8 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings), and have crushed right-handed pitching on the road (6.8 runs per game).
Wade Davis (3-1, 2.79 ERA) is having no such issues, posting 0.82 ERA in two road starts, and coming off 7 scoreless against the Royals Saturday. Both pitchers faced off in that 8-6 Rays win April 27th, and while neither was great, there's no question you like Davis more in this match up. Oakland hits righties well (4.6 run per game at home), but nothing like the red-hot Rays.
Lay it, as Davis regrouped nicely against the Royals and is primed for another strong effort tonight. Being backed by a bullpen that's been great doesn't hurt either (1.93 ERA L18 2/3 innings). Can't say the same for Ben Sheets, who's confidence is shaken and that's never a good thing against a team that's rolling right now. It's the Rays (Davis) over the Athletics (Sheets) Saturday.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Bobby Maxwell
Colorado (+105) at L.A. DODGERS
My FREE play run sits at 91-72-3 and today I've got a National League winner for you as I go with the Rockies on the road in Los Angeles taking on the Dodgers.
I’m playing the Rockies in this matchup as the Dodgers’ right-handed knuckleballer Charlie Haeger has been drilled in his last three starts. Colorado has the type of offense that can do some damage to that pitch and they’ll get to him early.
Haeger is 0-3 this season in four starts with a 6.56 ERA, including a 9.49 ERA in his last three outings, and 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA at home. In his last home outing, the Giants touched him up for seven runs on seven hits in three innings of a 9-0 loss. He last pitched on April 27 in New York when he allowed five runs on five hits in four innings of a 10-5 loss.
On the hill for the Rockies is young Jhoulys Chacin (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who is making his first start of the year. In his first outing on Sunday, he went to San Francisco and blanked the Giants for seven innings on one hit, striking out seven and walking three. A very impressive debut.
Colorado is 7-2 in their last nine games after a loss and 50-22 in their last 72 against a team with a losing record.
This is a play strictly against Haeger. Play the Rockies tonight in Los Angeles.
3♦ COLORADO