Stephen Nover
Colorado at LOS ANGELES
The Colorado Rockies have bullpen problems and the Los Angeles Dodgers are starting Charlie Haeger. That's a nice formula for going over the total.
Haeger, a knuckleballer, has a 7.85 ERA as a starter this season. Colorado doesn't have a reliable closer or setup man. Hudson Street still is on the DL. Franklin Morales and Rafael Bettencourt have had disappointing seasons. Morales remains too wild to trust.
The Rockies are starting Jhoulys Chacin. He picked up his first victory with a brilliant performance in his last start, a 4-1 win at San Francisco.
The Dodgers lead the National League in batting. They have far more power than the Giants. Andre Ethier is batting .469 with five homers and 15 RBIs during his last eight games. He leads the NL in batting at .376.
I like Chacin. I had him at a nice $1.40 'dog price in that game against Jonathan Sanchez and the Giants as a free selection. But he's still learning how to pitch. He has great talent, but hasn't gotten consistency in location and command of his fastball. The Dodgers can exploit that.
Chacin also threw a career-high 99 pitches in his last start. His previous high pitch count was 71.
3♦ ROCKIES/DODGERS OVER
Chris Jordan
N.Y. Yankees (-140) at BOSTON
Going with the pinstripes, on the heels of their 10-3 rout of the Red Sox last night. After all, if the Yankees can rough up Josh Beckett and company while Phil Hughes was silencing the surging Red Sox, what do you think will take place today with ace C.C. Sabathia toeing the slab?
The Yankees riddled Beckett for nine runs, including six in the sixth, and by the end of that inning, their lineup looked more like a team of misfits, as the Bombers suffered more casualties.
That still doesn't scare me, however, as Sabathia is up. And the Yankees are 20-8 because of their dominant starting pitching, as their starters are 17-4 with a 3.15 earned run average.
The overpowering southpaw is in after stifling the Orioles. He tossed eight innings of one-run, six-hit ball against on May 3 in New York, earning his fourth win in his past five starts.
And my bet is he'll be out to make amends for his April 4 Opening Night start at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox got him for five runs on six hits in a 5-1/3-inning no-decision.
Take the Bombers today, as they roll past their arch-rival.
2♦ YANKEES
Brett Atkins
What an easy free winner I dished out on Friday as the Cavaliers crushed the Celtics in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal. Tonight I have a comp winner coming on the National League diamond as I play the Rockies to get the win in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
The Cavaliers were humiliated at the way they looked at home on Monday night. You’ll see them come out focused in Boston tonight and get off to a great start.
On the hill for the Rockies is young Jhoulys Chacin who made quite a debut this season Sunday when he blanked the Giants for seven innings, allowing one hit while striking out seven and walking three. He dominated the Giants and now he moves down the coast a bit and he’ll own the dodgers here tonight.
Chacin is going opposite Charlie Haeger who has not locked in this season with his knuckleball. He is 0-3 in four starts with a 6.56 ERA, while in his last three that ERA jumps to 9.49.
Last time he pitched at home, the Giants got him for seven runs on seven hits in three innings of a 9-0 loss. Colorado is 7-2 in their last nine after a loss and they dominate losing teams, posting a 50-22 mark against losing squads dating back to last season. I’m going with Colorado tonight!
4♦ COLORADO
Joel Tyson
After 7 straight overs between the Lakers and Jazz, the first 2 in this series have both eclipsed the posted price.
I am going for another high-scoring game tonight in Salt Lake City, as the Lakers have now played 5 of their past 6 postseason affairs over the posted total.
As for the Jazzmen, 7 of their 8 playoff games this postseason have played high.
No sense in bucking those trends.
Take the over in Game 3.
4♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Bad call on the Mariners last night. Still, I remain on runs of 69-40-2 and 30-18 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, it’s back to baseball and I’ll play the Padres as a short road favorite at Houston.
San Diego has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball, and one of the reasons is the Friars have played an incredibly easy schedule through the first six weeks. The Padres have played series against the DBacks (twice), Rockies (twice), Braves, Reds, Marlins, Brewers and now the Astros. Not one of those teams entered this weekend with a winning record, which goes a long way toward explaining how San Diego – after last night’s 7-0 win in Houston – is now on a 15-5 run, going 5-1 on the road during this stretch.
Of all the weak opponents the Padres have faced, the worst of the bunch very well may be the Astros. They started the season with eight straight losses, and after a nice 8-2 run, they’ve now dropped 10 of their last 11. The problem remains the same for Houston: a horrific offense. During their current 1-10 funk, the Astros have scored a total of 20 runs, and they’ve been held to two runs or fewer in 16 of 29 games, scoring one run six times and being shutout five times.
As if the offense wasn’t enough of a concern, the Astros are once again handing the ball to right-hander Felipe Paulino tonight. Here’s all you need to know about this guy: He’s 0-4 with a 5.53 ERA in five starts (all Houston losses), and the Astros are 4-18 in his last 22 starts overall, including eight straight losses at home.
On the other hand, San Diego starter Jon Garland enters this one with a 2.06 ERA in six starts (four of them Padres wins), and he’s 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three trips to the mound. And the last time he faced Houston (last August), Garland pitched seven shutout innings in a 9-0 win.
This one seems almost TOO easy. Ride the hot team and the hot pitcher against one of the worst teams and shakiest pitchers in the game.
6♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES
MTi Sports
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Red Sox are 0-5 when Clay Buchholz starts vs a team that has won at least their last three games and The Yankees are 8-0 when CC Sabathia starts as a road favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches. Also, Boston is 2-18 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. Lay the price.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
L.A. Lakers @ Utah
PICK: Under 202.5
LA is up 2-0 in this series after winning 104-99 in the opener, and then 111-103 in Game 2.
Both of those games flew "over" the posted number, but now, with three entire days off between games, and the shift in venue, I feel the value in this contest will be on the "under":
Although the first two games did go "over" the number, it's important to note that the Lakers held Utah to just 39.6% shooting from the field in Game 2, as point guard Deron Williams made just 4 of 16 shots; a testament to Derek Fisher's smothering defense.
There should be no deviation in game plan for the Lakers in Game 3; simply pound the ball inside and utilize their size as the Jazz are now definitely feeling the loss of Center Mehmet Okur.
Keep in mind as well that LA has seen the total go "under" the number in 10 of 13 games this year when playing the roll of underdog and in 21 of 28 games after three or more consecutive straight up wins.
On the other side of the court: This is the third time in as many years that these teams have met each other in the post season and the Lakers have advanced each time.
Utah has been unable to slow down Kobe Bryant who was the leading scorer for LA in all six playoff games last season, and who opened up this second-round series with 31 points on 12 of 19 shooting.
However, Andrei Kirilenko has had success against "BLACK MAMBA" and is finally expected to return to the Jazz lineup tonight.
And it's also important to note that Utah has seen the total go "under" the number in five of seven games this year when playing with three or more days of rest.
When you take into account the longer than normal time between games, the change of venue, and the rest of the above factors, you may want to take a second look at the UNDER here.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on San Diego Padres -125
The Padres smoked the Astros 7-0 yesterday and I like their chances again today behind Garland, who is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.90 over his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, the Astros send Paulino to the bump and they are 0-5 in his starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.53. Paulino is even 0-12 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons and 0-10 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Astros have lost his last 8 home starts and they are just 4-18 in his last 22 starts overall. Pound the Padres.
Jorge Gonzalez
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
The Atlanta Braves (12-17) will have to go to their bullpen and give reliever Kris Medlin (1-1, 2.55) his first start of the season. Medlin will get the start because of a hamstring injury to starter Jair Jirrjens. Medlin is 1-2 with an ERA of 6.38. The Phillies have feasted on Medlin scoring six runs in eight innings of relief. The Braves also multiple injuries that will limit their offense. Rookie outfielder Jason Hayward will be out of the lineup, starting shortstop Yunel Escobar is disabled with an abductor injury and catcher Brian McCann has missed the last two games with an eye injury. The Braves have lost two straight road games and 10 of their last 11 games. The Braves are .215 on the road this season and will be hard pressed to score runs in this spot. The Philadelphia Phillies will give the ball to starter Joe Blanton (0-1, 5.40). The Phillies come into this game having won their last four straight games. The Phillies are batting .277 at home this season and are scoring 5.4 runs per game. Take the Phillies.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +1.22 over CHICAGO
The Blue Jays are red hot right now and for some strange reason the South Side cannot beat this team. In fact, the Blue Jays have beaten the White Sox four of six times this season and 20 of 26 overall. Keep your eye on Brett Cecil, as this guy’s numbers are not an aberration. He has nasty stuff, he throws strikes, he works quickly and his confidence is soaring. Cecil looks like a 10-year vet out there and is without question, one of the best young pitchers in the business. Cecil has one of the top BPV’s in the majors and his PQS scores over his three starts have been 4-4-5, respectively (see under write-ups for explanation of BPV’s and PQS). Jake Peavy has had three decent starts and three brutal one’s thus far. Two of his three good starts came against the Indians and those are the only two games the South Side has won when he was the starting pitcher. Alex Rios, Paul Konerko and Andrew Jones all have decent batting averages against lefties but will face a very tough one here. The rest of the team is hitting .170 against southpaws and thus, it’s hard to envision the White Sox mustering up much offense here. The Jays have won seven in a row and any tag on Cecil here has to be considered tremendous value. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.45 over PHILADELPHIA (1st 5 innings)
Baseball is a funny game. For instance, the Cubbies could barely manage to score a run in three games in Pittsburgh and then went into Cincinnati and scored five times in the first innings and 14 in the game. Last night the Braves were shutout by Jamie Moyer and mustered two hits in nine innings against a 47, soon to be 48-year-old pitcher. Having said that, the Braves are the NL’s third-highest scoring team over the last week. Entering play Friday, they’d averaged 5.5 runs per game in the past six games after averaging 3.6 in their first 22. More than that, however, is the fact that Joe Blanton should not be favored by this much over anyone. Blanton returned from the DL to pitch against the Cardinals and while he allowed just four runs in 6.2 innings, he still allowed 10 hits and in a bunch of other outs, the Cards crushed the ball but were unfortunate to hit it right at people. Blanton has always allowed a ton of base-runners and there’s really nothing to like about this guy especially as a 3-2 favorite. He also doesn’t look to be in the best shape either. Instead of staying fit while on the DL, Blanton looks like he gained about 20 pounds. Medlen is taking the place of injured Jair Jurrjens. He hasn’t proven himself as a starter yet but has really excelled in a relief role this season. He’s only walked three batters in 17.2 frames while striking out 16 and he’s already appeared in 12 games. The problem with playing the Bravews for the whole game is that Medlan is the team’s best reliever and he himself will very likely not go more than five innings. This wager is solely based on the starting pitchers, thus, it only makes sense to play it in five. Play: Atlanta +1.40 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.02 over LOS ANGELES
The Dodgers are hitting pretty good these days and in fact they lead the NL in batting but they’ll face a guy here they’ve only seen very briefly and that occurred last season when he faced two Dodgers in a relief appearance. Jhoulys Chacin (125 BPV, 5 PQS) makes his second start, and third appearance of the season and has looked rather impressive so far. He keeps the ball down and his command is definitely improving. He’s walked three batters while striking out nine and has only allowed one hit in eight innings thus far. This kid has all the ingredients for a long major-league career and is coming off a one-hit, seven-inning pure gem against the Giants in San Fran. Charlie Haeger (0 BPV, 5-0-1-0 PQS) made the Marlins look pretty foolish in his season debut, but has fallen on hard times since. His K/BB in that first start was 12/4; in five subsequent appearances (two in relief), that ratio is 11/13. Haeger has appeared in six games for the Dodgers and L.A. has lost them all. He has an alarmingly high WHIP of 1.84 to go along with an ERA of 6.84 and a BAA of .341. The Rockies are really seeing the ball well these days and in fact, they’ve scored 48 runs over its last nine games. It’s highly likely more runs are forthcoming in this one. Play: Colorado +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
TEXAS –1½ +1.11 over Kansas City
The Royals are quickly falling off the map and after losing last night and four of its last five, they now sit at 11-19 for the year. Things surely don’t figure to get better here. Gil Meche (-66 BPV, 0-2-0-3-1 PQS) hasn’t gotten himself right through five starts this season. Meche is still in the rotation because the Royals are paying him in excess of 12M this season and that’s a lot of bullets to be paying someone to sit out. The numbers speak volumes. Meche has an off-the-charts WHIP of 2.23. He’s walked 18 batters in 23 innings with just 14 K’s. He’s also allowed 36 hits for a BAA of .353. Now he’ll pitch in a park that is unforgiving to struggling pitchers and Meche fits the bill. He’s as fragile as any pitcher in the league right now and then some. Meanwhile, Rich Harden woke up last game by not walking a single hitter and striking out nine. A strikeout pitcher in this park always has an advantage and it sure doesn’t hurt that he’s 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA against the Royals in his career. The Rangers are heating up and it really is hard to imagine this one turning out any other way. Hell, this team can’t win with Zack Greinke on the hill so how in the wide, wide world of sports are they going to stay close here? Play: Texas –1½ +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –1½ +1.15 over Montreal
When the Habs faced the Caps you could see that Washington was a frustrated team but that’s not the case here. The Pens are putting a ton of pressure on the Habs and Montreal can’t walk on water much longer. The truth of the matter is that the Habs do not belong in this series. This team has a giant horseshoe up its ass and that’s all there is to it. Pucks are ricocheting off bodies and into the net and in terms of fluke or lucky goals, the Habs have exceeded its limit. The Penguins are not frustrated. They’ll come out and dominate play again and if the Habs stay within this range or even win, so be it. However, in terms of talent, this one is not close and hasn’t been since game one. The Habs are lucky to be tied 2-2, as they’ve been dominated in every department with the exception of goaltending and that, too, could end at any time. Play: Pittsburgh –1½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Mets lefty Johan Santana has been dominant in his career with two Cy Young’s, but is coming off his worst start of his career in which he allowed 10 earned runs in less than four innings of work in an 11-5 loss at Philadelphia. Johan is 2-0 in his career against San Francisco. His counterpart Todd Wellemeyer has struggled on the road this season allowing nine runs in just eight innings in two starts. We like the Mets here at home today.
Play on: New York Mets
Vernon Croy
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the White Sox have Jake Peavy on the mound tonight who is coming off his best start of the season. Peavy allowed just 4 hits while striking out 9 batters and walking one in his last outing which lasted 7 innings. The Blue Jays are just 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and they are just 1-6 in their last 7 games when playing in game 3 of a series. The White Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and I look for Peavy to have another solid start at home tonight.
Tom Freese
San Diego Padres at Houston Astros
Prediction: San Diego Padres
San Diego starter Jon Garland has allowed 4 runs total in his last 3 starts. The Padres are 21-5 in Game 2 of a series and they are 8-2 their last games as favorites. San Diego is 15-6 their last 21 games ands they are 9-2 vs. NL Central teams. Houston is 1-7 their last 8 home games. Starting pitcher Felipe Paulino has not won a game this year and he is 0-5 in his starts. The Astros are 15-37 vs. righty starters. Houston is 3-13 vs. NL West teams and they are 4-18 in the last 22 starts made by Paulino. PLAY ON SAN DIEGO -
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -110
Clearly not happy about being swept by the Pirates, the Cubs busted out for 14 runs in yesterday's win over the Reds. Expect Chicago to stay active with the sticks today against Harang, who is 1-4 (1-5 against the M.L.) with an ERA of 6.68 and a WHIP of 1.515. In fact, the Reds have lost 3 straight and 7 of Harang's last 9 starts versus the Cubs. Gorzelanny gives the Cubs a much better chance to win today. The wins aren't piling up for him yet, but his 2.48 ERA is what has my attention. The Cubs have taken 10 of the last 14 in this series and I look for them to add another "W" here.
JR O'Donnell
TEX -1.5 (+100) vs KAN
KC's Gill Meche has been a disaster so far this young season and we are not fans of RUN LINE plays boys , but this Texas Ranger smooth J-Bomb will get it done. Meche @ 0-3 and almost 10.00 ERA will get lit up again by the red hot Texas Rangers. The combination of opposing hitters at close to a .350 BA and the pure fact that he" Meche" walks a ton a of batters equals 8 plus runs in Texas tonight. The Texas Rangers hurler R. Harden is on fire and Kc will not get to him at all. Harden can really bring the rock and we will play on the Texas Rangers in a blow out .