SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Orlando (56-23, 43-34-2 ATS) at Cleveland (61-19, 38-41-1 ATS)
The top two teams in the Eastern Conference square off inside Quicken Loans Arena when the Magic, who are riding a three-game winning streak, take on the Cavaliers.
Orlando, who have locked up the No. 2 seed in the upcoming playoffs, have won three in a row SU and ATS and six of seven overall (4-2-1 ATS). Most recently, The Magic scored a 118-103 victory over the Knicks on Friday, getting 25 points and 14 rebounds from Dwight Howard, and easily cashing as 12-point home favorites.
Cleveland, which has secured the best record in the NBA and home court throughout the playoffs, has dropped two straight (1-1 ATS) and three of its last four (2-2 ATS). Cavaliers’ coach Mike Brown has chosen to rest several of his mainstays the last couple games, including LeBron James, who hasn’t been in uniform the last two contests.
The Cavs have taken two of three (SU and ATS) versus the Magic this year, including a 115-106 home win back on Feb. 11, cashing as six-point favorites. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings (6-2 ATS), including five of their six clashes in the Eastern Conference Finals last May. Orlando has cashed in 16 of the last 21 meetings, including seven of the last nine in Cleveland.
The Magic are on ATS surges of 4-1-1 overall, 7-2-1 on Sundays, 6-1 against Central Division teams and 4-1 against the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have cashed in 18 of 25 at home against teams with winning road records, but they’re otherwise on ATS skids of 2-6 overall, 1-4 at home and 1-7 after a straight-up loss.
Orlando has topped the total in five of six against winning teams and four of five against the Eastern Conference, but it is on “under” surges of 29-14-1 overall, 37-14-1 after a day off, 24-8 on Sundays and 7-3 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Cleveland has stayed below the posted number in 37 of 52 Sunday contests, but it is on “over” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road marks.
In this rivalry, the “over” has cashed in five of the last six meetings overall and four straight in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Portland (48-31, 42-35-2 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (56-23, 33-43-3 ATS)
The Trail Blazers, fighting for the sixth-seed in the Western Conference playoff race, travel to the Staples Center for a showdown with the conference’s top seeded Lakers.
Portland is locked in a battle with Oklahoma City and San Antonio for the Western Conference’s No. 6 seed, hoping to avoid a first-round matchup with the Lakers by staying away from the eighth and final spot. The Blazers had won six of seven (5-2 ATS) before Friday’s 83-77 home loss to the Mavericks, failing as a five-point favorite. Portland has struggled with its offense lately, reaching triple digits just three times in its last 10 games (5-4-1 ATS).
Playing without Kobe Bryant the last two games, the Lakers went to Denver on Thursday and fell 98-96 as a 1½-point pups and then traveled to Minnesota on Friday and scored a 97-88 win, cashing as a 7½-point chalk. Los Angeles has still dropped five of its last eight games (SU and ATS), and it is just 8-16-1 ATS since returning from the All-Star break.
The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry (3-7 ATS), but the lone road win during this stretch came on Feb. 6 when the Lakers rolled 99-82 in Portland as a 3½-point favorite without Bryant, who was nursing an injured ankle. The Blazers have cashed in 23 of the last 31 meetings with the Lakers overall, including five of the last seven clashes inside the Staples Center.
Portland is on several positive ATS streaks, including 14-6-1 on the road, 4-1 after a straight-up loss, 13-6-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 3-1-1 after getting a day off. Los Angeles is on ATS slumps of 0-8 after a spread-cover, 1-6 after a day off, 1-5 after a straight-up win, 1-4 at home and 1-3-2 on Sunday.
The Trail Blazers have gone over the total in 14 of 20 road games and 13 of 18 roadies against opponents that have a winning home record, but they are on “under” runs of 7-3 overall and 4-1 against Western Conference teams. The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 20-8 overall, 20-7 against the Western Conference, 20-6 against Northwest Division teams, 22-4-2 on Sunday, 6-1 after a straight-up win and 4-0 inside Staples Center.
In this series, the under has cashed in each of the last four battles in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND and UNDER
Chicago (38-41, 39-38-2 ATS) at Toronto (38-41, 37-42 ATS)
The two teams battling it out for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race meet at the Air Canada Centre, where the Bulls battle the Raptors.
With both teams tied in the conference standings, the winner of this contest will have a one-game lead with just two regular-season games left to play. After today, Chicago hosts Boston on Tuesday and finishes the season in Charlotte on Wednesday, while the Raptors travel to Detroit on Monday and finish at home on Wednesday against the Knicks. Should these squads finish with the same record, Toronto would advance to the postseason by virtue of a tiebreaker.
The Bulls dropped a tough one on Friday night in New Jersey, losing in double-overtime to the lowly Nets 127-116 as 5½-point favorites. Derrick Rose had 25 points and fellow guard Kirk Hinrich just missed a triple-double with 13 points, nine assists and nine rebounds. Still, Chicago has won five of its last eight (4-4 ATS) and taken two of its last three (SU and ATS) on the highway.
The Raptors have slumped lately, losing four straight (1-3 ATS) and seven of their last 10 (6-4 ATS). That includes Friday’s 107-101 loss in Atlanta, but they cashed as a 10½-point underdog. With Chris Bosh out the remainder of the regular season with a facial injury, Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems combined for 36 points against the Hawks.
Toronto has dominated the Bulls lately, winning five in a row and eight of the last 10 (SU and ATS). The Raptors have taken both contests this season rather easily: a 99-89 home win back on Nov. 11 as a 5½-point favorites and a 110-78 victory in Chicago on Dec. 5 as a six-point pup. Toronto has also cashed in four of the last five contests played north of the border.
The Bulls come into this one on ATS surges of 5-1 on the road, 5-1 against Atlantic Division teams, 9-5 overall, 6-1 after a straight-up loss and 11-4 on the road against teams with winning home records. Toronto has cashed in four of five after a day off and five of seven against the Eastern Conference, but it is on ATS slides of 2-11 at home, 1-4 on Sundays 1-5 against the Central Division and 8-21-1 as a home ‘dog of less than five points.
Chicago is on several “under” runs, including 8-4 overall, 7-4 on the road, 6-2 as a favorite, 23-10 as a road chalk, 7-3 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 after a straight-up loss. The Raptors have stayed below the number in nine of 13 as a home ‘dog, but they are on “over” streaks of 6-1 overall, 4-0 as an underdog overall, 6-2 on Sunday, 25-9 against Eastern Conference teams and 4-0 against Central Division opponents. Lastly, in this series, the under has cashed in seven of the last 10 matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (4-1) at Milwaukee (2-2)
Chris Carpenter (1-0, 3.00 ERA) looks to duplicate a strong Opening Day effort and lead the Cardinals to a three-game sweep of the rival Brewers, who will counter with lefty Randy Wolf (1-0, 5.40) at Miller Park.
St. Louis got a two-out, two-run, ninth-inning homer off Milwaukee closer Trevor Hoffman to steal Friday’s series opener 5-4, then came back Saturday and cruised to a 7-1 victory. Despite winning the last two games, the Cardinals are in still slumps of 5-10 overall, 2-5 against left-handed starters, 0-5 on Sunday and 1-8 in the third game of the season. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has won five of eight overall, four of six against division foes, five of six on Sunday and seven of eight when playing the third game of a series.
This visitor has owned this rivalry recently, winning the last nine meetings in a row and 16 of 20 since the start of last season. That includes six straight wins for St. Louis at Miller Park.
Carpenter was in midseason form in his debut at Cincinnati on Monday, yielding two runs on five hits while walking none in a six innings, earning an 11-6 victory. The right-hander’s last four starts have come on the road, and going back to last August, he’s surrendered just nine earned runs in his last seven road outings covering 47 innings (1.72 ERA).
With Carpenter on the hill, the Cardinals are on incredible runs of 93-39 overall, 6-2 on the road, 25-5 when he pitches after five days rest and 48-18 when working against N.L. Central rivals, but they are just 1-4 in his last five on Sunday. The 35-year-old veteran is 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA in nine career starts against the Brewers, but last year he went 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in three starts, including two gems at Miller Park in which he gave up a total of three hits in 17 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts against just two walks.
Wolf struck out eight and didn’t walk a batter in his debut with the Brewers on Tuesday, but he did yield four runs on nine hits against the Rockies. However, his offense bailed him out in a 7-5 home victory, and going back to last season with the Dodgers, Wolf’s teams have won 10 of his last 13 starts. Also, Tuesday marked the first time in 13 starts and just the second time in 21 outings that Wolf surrendered more than three earned runs in a game.
Wolf is now 3-4 with a 5.88 ERA in nine career starts at Miller Park, and he’s 3-5 with a 3.64 ERA in 10 career outings against St. Louis. Last year with Los Angeles, he faced the Cardinals twice (once in the playoffs) and gave up four runs on 13 hits and even walks in 9 2/3 innings. He’s surrendered two earned runs or fewer in three straight and six of seven against the Redbirds.
St. Louis has stayed under the total in 10 of its last 13 games against southpaw starters, but otherwise the team is on “over” streaks of 4-1 on Sunday, 7-2 when Carpenter starts on Sunday and 11-5 when Carpenter goes on the third game of a series. Likewise, Milwaukee carries “over” trends of 15-6-3 overall, 6-2-1 at home and 8-2-2 against right-handed pitching, and the over is 7-0-1 in Wolf’s last eight trips to the mound.
Conversely, the under is 6-2-1 the last eight times these rivals have hooked up and 13-3-1 in the last 16 clashes in Milwaukee. The teams have also stayed low in four of Carpenter’s last five outings versus the Brewers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (3-2) at Tampa Bay (3-2)
One day after CC Sabathia flirted with a no-hitter, the Yankees turn to A.J. Burnett (0-0, 5.40) as they wrap up a three-game series at Tropicana Field against the Rays and ace James Shields (0-0, 4.50).
Sabathia took a no-hitter into the bottom of the eighth inning Saturday, but it was broken up on a clean two-out single by Tampa Bay catcher Kelly Shoppach. Still, Sabathia and the Yankees rolled to the 10-0 victory, rebounding from Friday’s series-opening 9-3 loss. New York is on positive upticks of 79-33 overall, 43-17 against the A.L. East, 50-19 versus right-handed starters and 47-22 on Sunday.
Tampa Bay also carries a slew of positive trends, including 9-4 overall, 113-51 at home the last two-plus seasons, 12-4 against division foes and 6-1 versus right-handed starters, but the Rays have dropped nine of 12 on Sunday overall and four of five when Shields works on Sunday.
The home team has taken seven of the last nine in this series after a 7-3 run by the visitor. Still, New York is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings overall.
Burnett lasted just five innings at Boston on Tuesday, giving up four runs (three earned) with a walk and five strikeouts, failing to get a decision as the Yankees rallied for a 6-4 victory. The Yankees are now 7-2 in Burnett’s last nine starts and they’ve also won nine of his last 11 against the A.L. East and four straight when he pitches on Sunday. However, the veteran right-hander has struggled in his last three road efforts, allowing 16 runs (15 earned) in 13 innings (11.08 ERA).
Burnett went 4-0 with a 1.97 ERA in five starts against the Rays last season, with the veteran giving up just seven earned runs in 32 innings. He won all three of his starts at Tropicana Field, posting a 1.35 ERA (three earned allowed in 20 innings). For his career, he’s 11-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 21 starts versus the Rays (5-2, 2.05 ERA in 10 games at Tampa).
Shields had a decent 2010 debut against Baltimore on Tuesday, giving up three runs on nine hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in Tampa Bay’s 4-3 home victory. Going back to last September, Shields has 28 strikeouts against just five walks in his last four outings, with the Rays going 3-1. Also, Tampa has prevailed in 30 of Shields’ last 44 home starts and four of his last five against the A.L. East, but it has lost six of seven when he works the third game of a series.
Shields has not fared well against the Yankees in his career, going 1-7 with a 6.00 ERA in nine starts, eight of which Tampa Bay has lost. In his lone game against New York last year, he took an 11-5 home loss after giving up five runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings, falling to 0-4 with a 5.61 ERA in four outings at Tropicana Field versus the Yanks.
It’s been all “overs” for the Bronx Bombers of late, including 8-1 overall, 9-1-1 on the road, 5-1 against the A.L. East and 5-1-1 against right-handed starters, and they’ve also hurdled the number in Burnett’s last four road outings and five of his last six against the A.L. East. On the flip side, Tampa Bay is on “under” tears of 7-4 overall (all at home and all against the A.L. East), 7-2 on Sunday, 20-6-1 in the third game of a series and 12-5-1 when Shields faces division rivals.
Finally, the over has hit in 10 of the last 14 Yankees-Rays clashes at Tropicana Field and four of Burnett’s last five starts against Tampa Bay.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
The Yankees look to build on their 9-2 record in A.J. Burnett's last 11 starts against the AL East. New York is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105)
Game 901-902: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 14.441; NY Mets (Santana) 15.983
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-250); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-250); Over
Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haeger) 15.666; Florida (Sanchez) 14.981
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+105); Over
Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gorzelanny) 14.506; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.937
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Over
Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.767; Houston (Oswalt) 13.677
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-200); Under
Game 909-910: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Garland) 14.840; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.288
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-240); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-240); Under
Game 911-912: Atlanta at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.467; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.336
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+180); Over
Game 913-914: Pittsburgh at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McCuthchen) 14.973; Arizona (Jackson) 14.907
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+180); Under
Game 915-916: St. Louis at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.114; Milwaukee (Wolf) 15.708
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Over
Game 917-918: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.027; Detroit (Verlander) 14.682
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170); Over
Game 919-920: Toronto at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 15.241; Baltimore (Millwood) 15.788
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-125); Under
Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.290; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.079
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105); Under
Game 923-924: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.788; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.674
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Under
Game 925-926: Boston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 14.879; Kansas City (Meche) 15.090
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Under
Game 927-928: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Snell) 14.856; Texas (Feldman) 15.100
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-155); Over
Game 929-930: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.035; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.315
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+115); Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
Play on Cleveland. Jake Westbrook didn’t exactly have the game of his life on Monday, when he opened the season for the Tribe by allowing five runs in four innings. But his counterpart this afternoon also had a very poor outing, allowing four runs in five innings against a much worse offensive team in Kansas City. And Verlander doesn’t have the best history against this Cleveland team, either. In 19 starts, he’s only 8-10 (8-11 TSR) with an ERA of 5.20. We’ll take a chance at a big underdog payoff here.
Play on: Cleveland Indians
Matt Fargo
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Chicago Cubs
We won a top play ticket with the Cubs yesterday and we will go back to them on Sunday for a little less. It has been a slow start for Chicago, especially with the bats but that offense should be able to come around today. The pitching has been solid for the most part with the exception of the opener against the Braves where the Cubs gave up 16 runs. Since then they have allowed just 2.75 rpg in the five games after that and the Cincinnati offense is not going to put a scare into many people. The Reds have averaged only 3.8 rpg through five games. Chicago sends Tom Gorzelanny to the mound today for his first start of the season and he should be in good shape. He is another one of those former Pirates pitchers that never panned out and a change of environment will hopefully do him some good. His limited action with the Cubs last year shows a 5.63 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in seven starts and six relief appearances but that is a little skewed. Of those seven starts, only two were bad as he allowed two runs or fewer in the other five. His best start of those came against the Reds in Cincinnati as he allowed only one run on three hits and a walk in 7.1 innings. The Reds counter with Mike Leake who is making his Major League debut today. As a matter of fact he is making his professional debut as he was the Reds' first-round pick out of Arizona St. in the June draft and has not pitched in the minor leagues. He will be the first Reds player picked in the draft to make his debut without first playing in the minors. Talk about pressure. He had a decent spring with a 3.00 ERA but made just two starts and this is a totally different situation. Often times we see pitchers have success in their debuts but they usually do not come this early in the season. 3* Chicago Cubs
Tony Karpinski
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: New York Yankees
This Rays team has been getting a lot of public respect lately, and maybe rightfully so. Today you've got a scenario where you'd expect Rays money simply for the fact that many people expected them to win this series. On top of that, you've got Burnett coming off a mediocre start. Fact is though, these pitchers are both in very intriguing spots.
Burnett is 6-3 in 12 starts with a 2.95 ERA against Tampa Bay, and specifically 3-1 with a 1.54 in 5 starts AT Tampa bay (Since 2007). Now look at Shields during the same time frame... 1-5 with a 6.17 ERA in 6 starts against NYY. Even thought the Rays only had 2 hits on Saturday, I like the Yankees with Burnett in the day action on Sunday!
John Ryan
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Play: Washington Nationals
3* graded play on Washington as they take on the mets set to start at 1:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a significant probability that the Nationals will win this game. Ryan Zimmerman will more than likely be out of the lineup Sunday after further aggravating a hamstring. Still, the Nationals offense is a bright spot for this team. There are several National players, who have had strong success against Santana in their careers. Guzman is batting 500 spanning 16 AB; Dunn is 4 for 7 with 2 home runs. We strongly believe you will see the Nationals work the count to get into fastball counts or they will opt to look FB early in the count. Point is that Santana’s FB is not what it once was and it that is the best pitch to attack. Hernandez is making his first start of the season and the Nationals will be announcing a roster move - probably a bullpen pitcher since they are carrying 8 of them - to make room for Hernandez. The 35-year vet has an assortment of pitches that can keep hitters off balance. He has had success against the current members of the Mets in their respective careers. Castillo is batting just 193; 11 for 57 with NO extra base hits. He may be held out for that reason since he is also nursing a strained calf. The Mets are just not a strong enough team - even with Santana on the hill - to warrant a better than 2-1 favorite in any game. Mets are 221-219 (-60.5 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997. This edition of the Metropolitans will once again be money burners as home favorites against divisional rivals so be sure to look for those opportunities. Take the Nationals Sunday.
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Dodgers at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Marlins wrap up their three game series with the Dodgers at Sun Life Stadium this afternoon when Anibel Sanchez matches serves with Charlie Haeger. Aside from having suffered through a rough spring in which he compiled a 6.38 ERA this year, Sanchez is winless in his two career team starts against Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Haeger put an impressive effort together in training camp with a 2.20 ERA and is 2-1 in his three career team starts with the Dodgers. Look for more of the same here today as the Dodgers continue their winning ways in Miami.
MTi Sports
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are 9-0 when Mark Buehrle starts as a home favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one at home in his last start and the Twins are 1-9 when Nick Blackburn starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. Consider the White Sox.
Tom Freese
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
Houston is not going to make the playoffs this year as they are the tenth seed in the Western Conference. Point guard Aaron Brooks scores 19.7 points a game. Power Forward Luis Scola scores 16.2 points and 8.7 rebounds a game. Small forward Trevor Ariza scores 14.6 points a game. The Rockets score 102 points a game. Houston is 6-15 ATS their last 21 games following a straight up win and they are 7-19 ATS their last 26 meetings with the Suns. Phoenix is the fifth seed in the Western Conference just a half a game behind Utah for the fourth seed. Power forward Amare Stoudemire scores 23 points and 8.9 rebounds a game. Point Guard Steve Nash score 16.5 points and 11 assists a game. Shooting Jason Richardson scores 15.8 points a game. The Suns score 110.1 a game . Phoenix is 22-9-1 ATS their last 32 games overall and they are 13-3-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest. PLAY ON PHOENIX -
SEAN MURPHY
Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Based on today's line, the oddsmakers clearly don't believe that the Houston Astros will break out of their season-opening slump on Sunday, and neither do I.
The Phillies have been as hot as any team in baseball at the plate so far this season, and are coming off a nine-run outburst on Saturday. They currently lead the majors with 42 runs scored.
Therein lies the problem for the Astros on Sunday. They're fresh off a six-run effort on Saturday, yet still managed to lose the game. They do have one thing going for them, and that's Roy Oswalt, but can they score enough off of Roy Halladay to get the job done? I just don't see it happening.
Halladay was brilliant in his first start as a member of the Phillies, allowing just six hits and one earned run over seven innings against the Washington Nationals on Opening Day. He's had an extra bounce in his step since the start of Spring Training, excited to finally be on a contending team.
His counterpart, Roy Oswalt wasn't nearly as sharp in his first outing of the season, as he gave up seven hits and three earned runs while striking out only three in a 5-2 loss to the Giants. Keep in mind, Oswalt was nothing more than an average starter a year ago, going 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 30 starts.
It's worth noting that the Astros have not only failed to win a game this season, they've held just one lead through five games. They held that lead in last night's contest, a game they still lost by multiple runs. Speaking of last night's game, it was the Astros best opportunity to steal one in this series, as they were up against the ageless wonder, Jamie Moyer.
The Phillies are laying some serious juice for a reason on Sunday. Take Philadelphia.
LARRY NESS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
Toronto hands the ball to Shaun Marcum; Marcum sat out all of last year following elbow surgery. He looked decent enough on Monday, throwing a strong 6 1/3 innings before giving up three runs in the seventh, settling for a "no decision". Marcum is susceptible to the "long ball" though and should have some difficulties at Camden Yard. The O's send Kevin Millwood to the mound; after struggling through spring training, Millwood looked sharp in his Baltimore debut; he allowed two runs and nine hits in five-plus innings; closer Mike Gonzalez blew the save and win though. He walked one and struck out five on 100 pitches. Millwood is coming off a 13-10 2009 campaign; a 3.67 ERA which went down to 3.17 when throwing in front of the home town crowd (his ERA dropped to 2.86 in "day games"). I believe the Orioles will avoid the sweep today behind Millwood; Marcum is just 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA in eight starts and two relief appearances against Baltimore for his career; lay the wood.
BEN BURNS
Minnesota @ New Orleans
PICK: Over 211.5
I successfully played on the Hornets to finish above the total in their last game and noted that they've shown a tendency to play high-scoring games without Chris Paul in the lineup. That again proved to be the case as they combined with Utah for a whopping 217 points.
The Hornets have now seen six of their past seven games top the 200 mark.
With Friday's result, which was their fifth straight setback, note that the Hornets have now seen the OVER go a highly profitable 13-2 the last 15 times that they played when coming off three or more consecutive losses.
The T-Wolves have also been playing a lot of high-scoring games lately, particularly when playing away from Minnesota. In fact, their last nine road games have ALL produced a minimum of 200 points.
Those games averaged greater than 217 combined points! Not surprisingly, the OVER is 6-2 their last eight road games. Looking back further and we find the OVER at a highly profitable 15-5 their last 20 on the road.
With thoughts of the playoffs ancient history for both teams and with the 'over' at 7-2 the last nine times that the Hornets faced a team with a losing record, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. Consider the Over
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Rockets +9
The Rockets have been eliminated from the playoffs, but they are showing a lot or fight with 3 straight wins, and their last two wins have come against playoff-bound Utah and Charlotte. This has been a very competitive series with Houston either winning or losing by 9 or fewer points in 9 straight meetings with the Suns. The road team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The key here is that Phoenix does not force many turnovers with its defense, and the Rockets are 45-29 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. We'll take the Rockets and the points.
EZWINNERS
Houston Rockets +9
The Houston Rockets might be out of the playoff hunt in the western conference but this team is still playing hard every night. The Rockets have won three straight games and five out of their last seven. The Suns have won four straight games in this series, but none of them have been by double digits. The road team is 15-7 against the spread in the last twenty two meetings between these two teams and I expect the Rockets to battle the Suns to the wire. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago –2 over TORONTO
Aside from being without Chris Bosh, the Raps have responded to pressure miserably all season long and there’s not a single reason to trust them now. This one is pretty much going to decide who gets blown out by the Cav’s in the first round and it says here that the Bulls will get that honor. The Raps are a team with no discipline whatsoever. When they fall behind they start taking all these ridiculously low percentage shots from anywhere. Its defense is absolutely brutal and in a game of this magnitude you need defense in the worst way and the Bulls have a huge edge in that department. The Jays have dropped four in a row and that includes an important home loss to the Warriors. They also blew a 17-point, fourth quarter lead over the 76ers in a recent home game and needed OT to squeak that one out. The Raps last quality win against a quality team came almost a month ago when they beat the Hawks by a point. The Bulls have has won three of its last five and that includes a win over the Cav’s. They’re healthy and their primed to put the underachieving Raps out of their misery. This one won’t even be close. Play Chicago –2 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Toronto +1.10 over BALTIMORE
Which team do you think is feeling better this afternoon? The Jays, a team everyone predicted to lose a 100 games or the Orioles, a team that was predicted to have a breakout year. It’s only five games and five games is a fraction of the season but the Jays are 4-1 and the Orioles are 1-4 and the Jays will be playing with house money here. Furthermore, Shaun Marcum is not nearly getting the credit he deserves in that he’s a true ace and could be in for a huge campaign. Marcum was terrific in the spring and subsequently opened the year in Texas. In his season debut he threw a no-hitter through the first six innings and ended up throwing a seven inning, two-hitter. Marcum missed all of last year but in ’08 he went through a stretch where he took a shutout into the seventh inning in 14 of 17 starts. He’s a great pitcher that in no way should be a pooch to the struggling Orioles. The Orioles have to be feeling the pressure of a 1-4 start, especially after being shutout by a career minor-leaguer yesterday in Dana Eveland. Nothing is going right for the Orioles and that includes a pen that has not been able to hold up a lead. Kevin Millwood was very shaky in his O’s debut. He allowed nine hits and a walk in five frames and was extremely lucky to get away allowing just two runs. That could have easily been tripled, as the Rays hit .391 off him and it’s worth noting that he recorded just five groundball outs against 13 flyball outs. That’s a troubling sign indeed. Play: Toronto +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +1.38 over TEXAS
Scott Feldman won 17 games a year ago and the Rangers won his season debut this year but damn, this guy has been living a very charmed and at this level pitching at this park it simply cannot last. Feldman won’t fool too many batters, as he does not strike out many and will put the ball in play. That wouldn’t be a problem if he induced a lot of ground balls but he doesn’t and in fact, he gave up more flyouts last season than groundouts. In his season debut against the Jays, Toronto went yard on him twice and he recorded 16 flyball outs against just seven groundouts. In other words he was lucky to escape with a decent looking pitching line. Scott Feldman is a very average pitcher and that’s all there is to it. Incidentally, Feldman’s ERA in April over the last three years was 7.71. By contrast, Ian Snell induced 10 groundouts against eight flyouts in his season debut. He went a full six and allowed just four hits and one earned run. After the all-star break last season Snell went 5-2 with a BAA of just .247 and as it turns out, Snell could be a guy that is coming on in his sixth season. Furthermore, the Rangers are hitting a measly .216 after five home games and that, too, is a concern. So, when you break it down there are at least three unappealing things about the Rangers here; Scott Feldman, the Rangers offense and the price you have to pay to play them. Play: Seattle +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.21 over L.A. Angels
Dallas Braden is a guy to keep your eye on, as he could be headed for a big year. This is a guy that gets very little recognition but a close look reveals a ton of quality starts last season and he began this season with an absolute gem. In fact, in his season debut, Braden struck out 10 batters in seven full innings while allowing just four hits and one earned run. Incidentally, that one run scored on a wild pitch. Last year he whiffed 187 batters and pitched over 200 innings. His biggest problem last season was control but in his season debut he walked just one hitter and this past spring he walked just four in 21 frames. Braden is an impressive lefty that keeps getting better and seems to have worked on his control problems. The A’s are off to a decent 4-2 start and that, too, makes them appealing as a pooch. Joe Saunders was crushed in his season debut against the Twins. He surrendered eight hits, three jacks and five runs in five innings and took the loss. Saunders has always been a very hittable pitcher, as his .273 career BAA will attest to. He’s really not a good pitcher at all and is very often working from behind in the count and at this level that will destroy anyone. The Angels are not the same team they’ve been in the past. Chone Figgins is gone, amongst others, and he’s the guy that got the offense going almost daily. The Angels are 2-4 and do not warrant being a –1.30 favorite in this spot against Braden. Play: Oakland +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Rangers +1.20 over PHILADELPHIA
This is truly equivalent to playing the seventh game of a playoff series because the loser books tee-off times while the winner plays on. The difference here is that the Rangers are on a roll while the Flyers are in choke mode and that matters. The Flyers have had numerous chances to put this thing out of reach but have failed miserably so why would you trust them today? Fact is, the Flyers have lost 10 of its last 14 games to give the Rangers life and that includes losses to the Thrashers, Islanders, Wild and two defeats to these same Rangers. The Flyers carry the weight of the world on its shoulders for this one while the Rangers are loose and raring to go. Lastly, in a big game you always want to back the better goaltender and Henrik Lundqvist could win this one on his own should the visitors get outplayed. Should it go to OT or a shootout, that’ll be even better. See ya next year Flyers. Play: N.Y. Rangers +1.20 (Risking 2 units).