Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, April 14

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Colorado at San Diego
The Padres look to bounce back from yesterday's 9-5 loss to Colorado and build on their 8-1 record in Clayton Richard's last 9 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. San Diego is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100)

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 13.808; Miami (Slowey) 14.230
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+105); Under

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Maholm) 16.519; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.942
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+135); Over

Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 16.576; Pittsburgh (Irwin) 14.802
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-150); Under

Game 957-958: Milwaukee at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 13.165; St. Louis (Garcia) 18.143
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 5; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Over

Game 959-960: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.308; Cubs (Jackson) 15.009
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); No Total
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); N/A

Game 961-962: Colorado at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.795; San Diego (Richard) 15.495
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.620; Arizona (Cahill) 16.330
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120); Under

Game 965-966: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 13.724; Cleveland (Myers) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+115); Over

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.819; Boston (Buchholz) 15.392
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130); Over

Game 969-970: Toronto at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 15.117; Kansas City (Santana) 15.646
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under

Game 971-972: Houston at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Humber) 14.845; LA Angels (Wilson) 14.187
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-220); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+180); Under

Game 973-974: Detroit at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 17.545; Oakland (Parker) 16.919
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Over

Game 975-976: Texas at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 14.904; Seattle (Maurer) 15.520
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115); Under

Game 977-978: Baltimore at NY Yankees (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 16.110; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.394
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135); Over

Game 979-980: NY Mets at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.245; Minnesota (Correia) 16.137
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Under

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Mets at Minnesota TwinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Minnesota TwinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Twins send Kevin Corriea to the mound in the finale of this three game Interleague series with the Mets Sunday afternoon, Minnesota will do so knowing Corriea has cashed in 11 of his last 16 team starts during the month of April, including 6 of his last 8 at home. With Corriea in fine current form look for the Mets to fall to 7-11 away during the opening month of April here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 196½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a nice totals system that has cashed 10 of 12 times since 1995 and averages 216 points. We want to play the over for road dogs like the Cavs with a total that is 190 or higher if they scored 90 or more as a home dog in their last game and shot 45% or less from the field, if they are matched up with an opponent that scored 90 or more as a road dog of 5 or more and also shot 45% or less. The Cavs have flown over in 6 of the last 8 on the road when the total is 195 to 199.5 and in the series here between these two 3 of the last 4 have flown over. Look for a more wide open up tempo game than you would normally see as we near the end of the season and coaches look to get some of the younger guys involved.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mavericks vs. HornetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 194FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of teams out of the playoffs, which means defense is the first two go. New Orleans has been playing better on offense but terrible on defense, giving up 104 and 121 points the last two games, both over the total. The over is 11-5 in the Hornets last 16 games playing on one days rest. Dallas comes to town just having been eliminated last week, so it's time to pad the offensive stats! Dallas is a Top 10 team on offense anyway, but a bottom 5 team in points allowed. The over is 41-20-2 in Mavericks last 63 games playing on one days rest. And when they meet the over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, including 6-2 over the total in New Orleans. Play the Mavericks/Hornets over the total.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Detroit TigersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I liked the Tigers some on Saturday with Verlander going against a shorthanded Oakland lineup, but one of my old tenets is to avoid playing against a team that's on a really long winning streak. I'd rather wait for the surge to end, and then take my shot if it's the right situation. I can see that being the case today. The A's are now definitely without Cespedes and Coco Crisp is expected to sit this one as well. That's two very key components absent from the Oakland lineup, and a hot Anibal Sanchez should be able to take advantage. Sanchez is getting ahead of hitters with his four-pitch arsenal and he's also getting lots of outs on pitches outside the strike zone, which is a really positive sign. On the other hand, Jarrod Parker is really struggling. His problems are really basic. Parker is not throwing strikes and opposing hitters are not biting at those outside the zone pitches. Parker has struggled throughout the spring and appears to be messed up right now. This is not an ideal lineup to get healthy against, and that's putting it mildly. You'll have to spot about 6/5 here, but it looks like a good spot to back the Tigers.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado Rockies at San Diego PadresFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Colorado RockiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The numbers don't lie; Colorado has been overwhelming San Diego this season, outscoring the Padres by a whopping 36-16 count while winning five straight games! And while Jorge De La Rosa has not been overly impressive in his early starts for the Rocks, he should get sme run support this afternoon when his teammataes bat against San Diego starter Clayton Richard, who has a 5.68 career ERA vs. Colorado and was really blasted a year ago by the Rocks when conceding an 8.49 ERA (though both of those starts were at Coors Field). But it's the recent series domination that prompts strong consideration for the Colorado side.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit vs. NashvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: NashvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played each other twice this year, and the home team has prevailed each time. Nashville won 4-3 on February 19th, before the Wings returned the favor in a 4-0 victory on February 23rd. I believe this home winning trend in this series continues tonight. Detroit is 19-15-7 overall, including 9-8-3 on the road. It's coming off a 3-2 overtime loss at Chicago on Friday. Nashville is 15-19-8 overall, and 10-7-4 at home. The Predators have lost five straight, including a 5-2 setback to Dallas on Friday. The Wings have in fact lost three straight, and remain logjammed for one of the last playoff spots in the Western Conference. The Wings are struggling in all facets of the game though and haven't scored more than three goals in any of their last 10 games. Nashville still has a mathematical shot at the postseason, and if it has any chance whatsoever it will obviously need to turn things around immediately. However, if history is any precedence, the Predators have to be liking their chances as they're 6-2-1 their last nine vs. Detroit overall, which includes winning four of the last five in the series in front of the home town crowd. One player you should keep your eyes on is Nashville's goaltender Pekka Rinne, who despite posting a 1-4-2 record over his last eight starts, has put together a very respectable 2.19 GAA in that span. I believe the table is set for the home side to break out of its funk and to get untracked vs. a sputtering Wings team.

Bob Balfe

Reds -140 over Pirates

The Reds hit a little slump here, but still are a much better baseball team with the better starting pitcher today. Pittsburgh has found their bats a little bit here over the weekend, but still are the worst team in baseball at putting the ball in play. Cincinnati needs a big win here and should get it with ease. Take the Reds

Nets -3.5 over Raptors

There is really not much to play for in the final days of the NBA season. There are a few teams that could move up or down in the playoff seeding, but more or less the East is locked up. The Nets have been playing great offense as of late. I do like the heart of Toronto as they have been playing well with nothing to play for and with a few key injuries. Brooklyn should just be too strong of a matchup today. Take the Nets.

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N.Y. Mets +101 over MINNESOTAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. The Twins are 4-7 and have dropped five in a row while being outscored 33-12 over their five-game losing streak. After spending his career with three teams in the National League, Kevin Correia finds himself in the American League and he acquitted himself well in his first two starts, holding the Tigers and Royals to 15 hits and five earned runs for an ERA of 3.14. However, Correia’s xERA is 4.46 after striking out just three batters over those 14.1 frames. Unlike the Royals and Tigers, the Mets have seen him and current Mets have 30 hits against Correia in 80 career AB’s for a combined BA of .375. Then there’s the venue. Pitching in San Fran, San Diego and Pittsburgh, all pitcher friendly venues, aided Correia for 10 years. His ERA over the past two years pitching for the Pirates was 4.79 in 2011 and 4.21 in 2012. PNC Park suppresses RH HR by 31%, Target Field suppresses it by only 6% and Correia is likely to pay the price against a Mets’ club that is hitting .285 against righties and that has belted out 15 jacks in 11 games.
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The Mets are 7-4. Dillon Gee was lit up in his last start in Philadelphia to the tune of 10 hits and seven earned runs in three innings, thus his 7.71 ERA in two starts. However, Gee went 6.1 innings in his season debut against the Padres and allowed just three hits and one run and that’s the Dillon Gee you can expect to see more often. Gee had few bad starts last season. He has a two-year, strong groundball bias profile (45%) and a very good line-drive profile of 18% over that same span. Gee’s combination of solid command and GB% give us an xERA that's a run and a half below his actual ERA over the past two seasons, suggesting there should be better times ahead for this skilled 27-year old. The Twinkies are hitting a combined .219 and they’ve never seen Gee, another factor that works in our favor here. Use Gee's xERA as your guide, not his actual ERA.
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Texas -½ +110 over SEATTLEFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. Two rookies oppose one another here and while both of these starters have upside, the big difference is confidence and right now Brandon Maurer’s is shot. In his first start of the year, Maurer was fighting it the entire game versus the A’s in which he threw six innings of eight-hit ball while surrendering six runs and two bombs. In that outing he struck out one batter. Maurer was pulled after 2/3 IP against the Astros after giving up 6 earned runs in the 1st inning in his second major league start. That’s not the way one wants to begin their major league career. Chances are Maurer didn’t sleep too well last night with those two starts hanging over his head and knowing he’ll be facing the Rangers in his third start. Maurer has given up 15 hits and 12 runs in 6.2 frames (.469 BAA with a 2.40 WHIP) over his first two major league starts. It’s a small sample size but this isn’t some seasoned vet that can easily shake it off. This is a kid who is trying to stay in the rotation and these Rangers will have no sympathy.
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Rangers starter Nick Tepesch allowed only one run in 7.1 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in his major league debut this past Tuesday to become the first pitcher to give up four hits or less and a run or less in his major league debut in 7.1 innings on a date as early as April 9 since Wayne Simpson did so April 9, 1970. Tepesch earned the Rangers fifth rotation spot out of spring training as a non-roster invitee. Tepesch throws four pitches with excellent command: fastball, cutter, curve, and change-up. He creates a lot of ground balls by utilizing his height (6’4”) for good downward plane on his fastball that tops out at 94 mph. He utilizes both sides of the plate well and mixes his curveball and cutter very well into his pitch mix. Tepesch impressed observers with his poise, and more importantly recorded 16 outs on groundballs in his sparkling debut for a groundball rate of 80% on batted balls. His changeup is still a bit of a work in progress, as he has a tendency to slow his arm speed but there is a lot to like about his arsenal and composure on the mound. Perhaps most importantly, Tepesch’s solid debut bought him some extra rope and from a psychological standpoint, that’s big. Maurer’s rope is hanging by a thread.
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Baltimore +114 over N.Y. YANKEESFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hiroki Kuroda continues to thumb his nose at the aging curve, flourishing despite his move to the AL. Kuroda’s skills even took a step up in a tough ballpark last year, especially in the second half. Thing is, Kuroda has averaged over 200 innings in each of the past three years and all the signs suggest he’s about to pay the price for taxing his arm. In two starts, Kuroda has walked five and struck out seven in 6.2 frames. He didn’t make it out of the second inning against the Red Sox and barely made it through 5.1 frames against the Tribe. More troubling is that Kuroda’s line-drive rate is up five percentage points and his groundball rate is down seven percentage points. Over the past three years Kuroda has had favorable strand percentages, which has allowed him to outpitch his xERA. Kuroda has been gamely fighting off the toll 600+ innings takes on a 38-year old arm but the percentage play is to heed this arm, as it could all go quickly for him this season.
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Wei-Yin Chen is now 0-2 after two starts, losing on the road to both Tampa Bay and Boston. Last year, the success of the Orioles drove statheads crazy as it appeared that they were winning with smoke and mirrors but there was nothing fluky about Chen's performance in 2012. Chen demonstrated solid skills all season with his control, strikeout rate and command, all dramatically improving across the board in the second half. He was pitching very well in his last start at Fenway until the seventh inning when Daniel Nava hit a three-run homer over the Green Monster to break Chen's shutout. For the day, 70 of his 107 pitches were strikes and that’s right in line with his career command of the strike zone in both the majors and the Japan league. Chen has a career 1.17 WHIP in his 34 career starts at this level and has a very good chance of success here against a Yankees club that is batting just .200 against southpaws this season.
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Pass NBA & NHLFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia at MiamiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami has a huge stadium that is great for pitchers. We have a pair of arms on the hill today who love to throw strikes and not walk anyone. Veteran Roy Halladay goes for the Phillies and after facing the Braves and the Mets it will help to face this bad Miami offense. Halladay is 7-4 with a 3.09 ERA against the Marlins, walking just 15 in 93 innings with 92 strikeouts. The UNDER is 7-2 in the Phillies last nine road games and 9-3 UNDER the total in their last 12 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Last place Miami has no offensive pop at 30th in baseball in runs scored, hitting .206 as a team (29th), 27th in on-base percentage and 29th in slugging. Starter Kevin Slowey is winless, but throwing great with a 2.19 ERA walking only three in 12 innings. Miami is 7-1-1 UDNER the total in its last nine home games and 14-3-4 UNDER the total in Sunday get-away-day contests. When these teams meet, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings, as well as 8-2 UNDER the total in the last ten meetings in Miami. Play the Phillies/Marlins UNDER the total.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers -120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Anibal Sanchez should have no problem shutting down this A’s team that averages just 3.7 runs per game at home. Sanchez has a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP to start the season and playing against an Oakland team whose offense has not been great at home should ensure he maintains those respectable numbers. It is hard not to like the Tigers as such a small favorite considering they are one of the best teams in baseball and they may have the best pitching rotation in the American League.
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The Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter and they are 5-2 in their last 7 games where the total is set between 7-8.5 runs. Oakland is 2-5 in Jarrod Parkers last 7 starts as a home underdog. Parker has a 0-1 record on the season with a 7.20 ERA at home. The Tigers have a matchup advantage on the mound as well as a scoring advantage at the plate so they should have no problem taking game three of this series from Oakland.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals -156FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals have won 6 of 7, including 4 in a row by a combined score of 25-1. The Brewers have lost 8 of 9, including 3 straight by a combined score of 16-3. St. Louis has had Milwaukee's number. It has won 6 of the last 8 meetings overall and 12 of the last 16 at Busch Stadium. The Cards also have the edge on the mound with Jaime Garcia. They are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and have won 4 of his last 6 versus Milwaukee. The Brewers are 3-8 in Marco Estradas last 11 road starts and have lost both of his starts against St. Louis. Take the Cards.

Don Best ConsensusFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco at ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Under is 11-5 in Cubs last 16 Sunday games. Under is 4-1 in Lincecums last 5 road starts vs. Cubs. Under is 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings.

Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland +115FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Been looking at this one for 24 hours as well. Taking Peavy looks entirely too easy, and in a game that I thought would go over, the total is coming down, meaning we like the home team even more. The Indians are simply raking the ball right now, and the White Sox are not. Two of the most streaky teams in baseball, so given that the White Sox had to use more bullpen yesterday, we're riding the Indians. Lineups are out, and everyone we wanted in for the Indians is indeed in. Myers hasn't been that great, but he IS a gamer and expect him to settle in more now that he's had his initiation to his new team. He's faced the Yankees when they were hot and likewise with Toronto. This should be his first win as a Cleveland Indian.