Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Portland vs. DenverFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DenverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I think that all things considered, Sunday's matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets adds up to a one sided blowout for the home team. While Denver is trying to lock up the #3 seed in the West and nearly invincible at home, Portland has lost 10 straight and for all intents and purposes, done for the season.
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Here are my keys to the game.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Homecourt advantage - No team has a better one than Denver. The Nuggets are 36-3 SU at home this season, winning 21 in a row. Despite facing consistently high lines, they are 27-12 ATS here. During the 21-game home win streak, they are winning by an average of 12.5 pts/game, which is actually not a large enough margin to cover the spread this evening, but keep in mind that streak includes many games against teams better than Portland. They did just beat San Antonio by 10 and Houston by 18 before losing at Dallas last time out.
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2. 10-game losing streak: Winning at Denver is next to impossible, but when you're playing as poorly as the Blazers are right now, chances are even more minimal. They are being outscored by an average of nearly 15 pts/game during their 10-game losing streak and just lost by 26 - at home - to Oklahoma City Friday night.
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3. X-Factor: Portland isn't just struggling, but they're short handed as well as two of their starters, Nicholas Batum and Wesley Matthews, have both been missing time and aren't expected to play tonight either.
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Sacramento vs. HoustonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I feel that when you take one of the league's highest scoring team and put them at home against the league's worst defensive team, all the elements are present for Over bettors to reap the rewards. Such is the case Sunday night when the Houston Rockets host the Sacramento Kings........
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The Rockets average 105.8 points per game on the season. They were previously the highest scoring team in the league, but fell two tenths of point behind Oklahoma City due to scoring a season low 78 Friday vs. Memphis. All the more reason to expect a bounce back here. For the year, they average 108 PPG at home. In two games this season vs, the Kings, they have averaged 111.5 PPG.
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Sacramento gives up the most points per game in the NBA by a pretty decided margin. They allow 104.8 PPG, which is two more than any other team. Of course, on the road they are even slightly worse. At the same time, offense has never been an issue for the Kings as they average more than 100 PPG for the season and they are averaging 109.5 PPG in the two meetings with Houston.
MLB Predictions
Philadelphia / Miami Marlins Under 8
The Phillies will send Roy Halladay to the mound. Although he has struggled this season and we’ve cashed in betting against him in both starts I do think he will have a quality start here today against the Marlins. Miami is hitting just .206 as a team with a low .281 OBP. And they’ve scored just 19 runs over their 11 games (1.73 runs per game). The Marlins have Kevin Slowey on the mound who has been good despite an 0-2 record. He has a 2.19 ERA, .222 OBA, and 1.05 WHIP over his first two starts. The Phillies also aren’t doing too much offensively themselves with a .250 team batting average and 46 runs scored in 11 games (4.18 runs per game). Take the UNDER.
Atlanta / Washington Under 7
Two of the National League’s top starters will take the mound today. Atlanta’s Paul Maholm has gone two starts without allowing a run, as he has racked up 13 strikeouts and just 4 walks to start the year 2-0. The Nationals will go with Gio Gonzalez today who has worked 11 innings allowing just 6 hits and 1 earned run with 12 strikeouts and 4 walks. Last year he was 9-4 with a 2.38 ERA, .202 OBA, and 1.00 at home. These two teams rank 6th and 9th in the NL right now with runs scored as Atlanta is averaging 4.82 runs per game, while Washington is averaging 4.18 runs per game. Although 10 runs were scored in the first game of this series there were just 4 runs scored yesterday with quality pitchers on the mound. The UNDER is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings and 9-4 in their last 13 meetings in Washington. Given the two starting pitchers we have going today I’m on the UNDER.
Detroit Tigers -115
Today’s game features two teams with some of the hottest bats in baseball here in early in the season. The Tigers evened up this series with a 7-3 win last night after a 4-3 loss Friday night to move to 6-5 on the year and 2-3 on the road. The Athletics have started 9-3 and 3-3 at home. While Oakland has put together the most runs in the big leagues, the Tigers own the best team batting average at .304 and OBP at .362. While both teams are hot with the bats right now I give the edge in starting pitching to Detroit this afternoon. Anibal Sanchez will take the mound and he has pitched 12 innings giving up 7 hits and just 2 earned runs with 13 strikeouts and 4 walks so far this season. A’s Jarrod Parker has had a rough start pitching 8.1 innings of work giving up 14 hits and 6 earned runs while striking out just 2 and walking 6. He is having control issues and that comes after a poor spring where he pitched 19.1 innings with a 7.45 ERA and gave up 5 homeruns. I’m taking the Tigers today.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks -3
The Dallas Mavericks have a chance to get back to .500 with a win over the New Orleans Hornets. Several players made a pact not to shave their beards until they got back to .500. This team is hungry to get there to say the least after missing several chances over the past few weeks.
While Dallas has been officially eliminated from the playoffs, there's no question it is still playing for something. That was evident in a 108-105 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Friday. In fact, the Mavericks have won three of their last four games overall.
The Hornets appear to have packed it in. They have lost five of their last six games overall. The road team has won the first two meetings between these teams this season.
Dallas is 9-1 ATS in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game this season. The Mavericks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games. Bet the Mavericks Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
Arizona D-backs -121
The D-backs have had LA's number. They've won 11 of the last 14 meetings overall and 6 of the last 7 at home. They've especially been dangerous with Cahill on the hill, winning his last 4 starts against the Dodgers. Beckett's clubs are just 10-20 in his last 30 starts. Value lies with Arizona here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Miami Under 189: The Bulls are missing allot of off and this is from a team that scores very little anyway. The Bulls average just 93.1 ppg overall and 93.3 ppg on the road, so they will need to rely n their slower pace and defense to win this one. Defense is something the Bulls know as they ave allowed just 92.9 ppg overall and 94.9 ppg on the road. Miami has also played good defense this year, as they have allowed just 95.1 ppg and they should have more than enough defense to hold down a weakened Chicago attack. The Under is 4-1 the last 5 in the series and with more defense than offense in this one expect that trend to continue.
Knicks/ Indiana Under 194: The Pacers allowed 117 points to Brooklyn and that is way out of character for this team, so I look for some defensive intensity from them in this one. The Pacers are 2nd in the league in scoring defense and 1st in FG% defense and they should be able to contain a New York offense that may put it on cruise control for this one as the play offs are right around the corner. New York has played good defense of last as they have held opponents to 91 or less in 5 of their last 7 non-OT games and they have allowed just 94.4 ppg at home, while the Pacers have averaged just 91.2 ppg on the road this year. I expect a close game that should have the Pacers dictating pace with their slow down game. Don't be surprised if Indiana wins outright here, but also don't be surprised if this game finishes under 180 points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia -133 over MIAMI: Very rarely will I have my Phils as a top play, but I feel this is one spot to do so., especially since they are coming off a tough loss last night. Roy Halladay has had a rough spring and a rough start to the season, but I feel he can bounceback with his best showing vs a Miami offense that comes in 30th in scoring, putting up a pathetic 1.73 rpg, while also hitting just .206 (29th). This is the perfect spot for Ry to have a god showing and build some confidence moving forward. Roy has also pitched well vs Miami, posting a 7-4 mark with a 3.09 ERA in 14 starts vs them. Kevin Slowey comes over to Miami from Minnesota after missing all of last year. He has now gone 0-10 with a 6.15 ERA in his last 10 starts. This year he has pitched well with a 2.19 ERA, but lack of offense has him at 0-2 so far. I feel that Roy will have his best showing yet and the Phils will bounce back from last night's tough loss.
San Francisco -113 over CHICAGO: Tim Lincecum has started off slightly better that last year and while his ERA is high, he is still 1-0 so far. Tim has struggled of late with the Cubs, but this is not a good Chicago offense as they come in ranked 27th in scoring and 26th in hitting and that should help Tim continue to pitch well. The Giant offense has been solid this year, ranking 8th in hitting and 15th in scoring and that should continue as well vs Edwin Jackson, who is off to an 0-2 start and has a 5.73 ERA to boot. Edwin is also 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA in his last 3 starts vs the Giants. Edwin allowed the Brewers 5 runs in his first start here as a Cub and that now gives him a 1-3 mark with a 7.83 ERA in 4 career starts in this park. San Fran is the better team here, with the better pitching and offense and will bounceback from yesterday's tough loss.
Colorado/ San Diego Over 8: Here is something you may never hear again. "Petco Park is the top hitting park in the league" and Vegas seems to be catching up a bit with that. Not very often is there an OU line of 8 in a San Diego home game, but this park has proven this year that it will yield some runs. The first two games of the series has put up 12 and 14 and this one should get at least 10. Colorado really has like this park of late as they have now scored 37 runs in their last 5 games in this park. Overall this Colorado offense has been very hot, checking in at 6th in scoring and 2nd in hitting and they will be facing a struggling Clayton Richards in this one. Clayton comes in with an 8.68 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP in 2 starts this year. He has been so bad that he has pitched just 9.1 innings in the two starts. Boy Colorado should really tee off on him. The Padre offense hasn't been that bad vs Rockie pitching in this series, putting up 5 runs in each game and they should have another good showing vs Jorge De La Rosa, who has a 6.10 ERA through two starts and generally struggles on the road. 10-12 runs in this one.
Joe Gavazzi
Brooklyn -3
Following a 1-7 decline, it looked like Toronto was ready to toss the towel. But they have responded with a recent 4-1 SU, ATS surge including a pair of wins vs. Chicago. But today they will be without Valanciunas and possibly Ross and Fields, all key cogs in their lineup. Though Brooklyn has locked up the #4 seed, they are supersurging for the #3 seed standing just 2 games behind Indiana with both the tie breaker and the remaining schedule in their favor. The Mets have won 3 straight on the road, 4 straight overall and have won all 3 previous matchups in this series by 7, 6 and 7 points. AT full strength, I expect optimum performance from Brooklyn today.
Vegas Sports Informer
Miami (-6) over Chicago
This is a projected line. The Chicago Bulls are suffering injuries all season long, and now Luol Deng is not 100 percent! Yes, I know D-Wade will probably not play this game, but this season the Heat have a bench that can produce. Look for Miami to win this game on their offense in the first half and their defense in the fourth quarter. Miami wins big, and I say Miami wins by double-digits. They want to keep making statements to the rest of the Eastern Conference that they know the title is theirs to win!
BRETT ATKINS
My free winner is on the New York Knicks getting it done against the Indiana Pacers, as I think we're going to see a huge game by the home team here.
I mean, think about it, before the Knicks can get a shot at the defending NBA champion Miami Heat in the playoffs, they’re going to have to get through Boston in the first round and quite possibly this Pacers team in the second round.
And while that might be some tough post-season ground to cover, I think it's on the right path with the momentum it's on right now.
The Knicks’ win on Friday in Cleveland, along with the Pacers’ home loss to the Nets, put New York one win - or, coincidentally, one Pacer loss - from securing homecourt advantage if it were to meet the Pacers in the East semifinals. That means if there's a Game 7 - it's in Madison Square Garden, chock full of frenzied Knicks fans, including bandleader Spike Lee.
Today, is a statement game. Not just a clincher.
The Knicks will win big.
5* NEW YORK
SCOTT DELANEY
My free winner for you today is the Minnesota Twins, as I like them to snap their five-game slide with a home win in their Interleague-series finale with the New York Mets.
I'm not going to list pitchers in this one, so I don't expect you to, but I will say the Twins should feel good about their matchup, as Kevin Correia looks a lot more like a best bet than Dillon Gee. That statement might not have been true prior to the start of the season, but I like the way Minnesota's righty has looked, much more than what Gee has shown us.
New York's righty is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and comes in after getting tagged for three home runs in five pitches against the Phillies. He allowed seven total runs in three innings and now pitches in a city he's never thrown.
Correia was a tough-luck losing pitcher his last time out, and the Twins have lost five in a row - that's a mix that tells me we have the desire to win on our side, and there's something to be said about a home team salvaging a series to avoid being swept.
Lay the cheap number with the Twins.
2* MINNESOTA
CHRIS JORDAN
My free play is going to be the Chicago White Sox, laying the money, to the Cleveland Indians.
It's time to snap the losing streak, and if there's anyone who can do it for the South Siders, it's Jake Peavy. Though he ran out of gas in his last outing, in which he allowed two home runs during the Nationals' four-run sixth of an 8-7 loss, I'd be remiss if I didn't argue in his favor and mention he struck out seven, walked one and threw 100 pitches.
He's capable of stopping the Tribe today, and though I'm not one to list pitchers a lot, I do believe he can be a plus on the hill.
The White Sox want to stop this losing streak now, and I think they'll be able to against Cleveland's Brett Myers, who has allowed 14 earned runs over 10-1/3 innings in his first two appearances as an Indian.
But forget the pitchers in this one, the culprit for the ChiSox, in helping to snap this skid, will be Alex Rios, who is off to his best start since 2006. Rios has stroked four home runs with eight RBI and boasts a .372 average. And he'll be pissed today, to come out swinging, as his 10-game hitting streak to begin the season was snapped on Saturday.
I know the White Sox have yet to win a game with a suitcase in hand, losing five straight away from U.S. Cellular Field, so there's another skid that will be snapped.
Take the White Sox.
3* CHICAGO
JEFF BENTON
Sunday's freebie is the Phillies over the Marlins.
Miami came up with the 2-1 win last night over Philly to even up the score through the two games played this weekend.
It was just Miami's second win in 11 games this year, so why not look for today to be the spot struggling ace Roy Halladay straightens things out, and gets his first win in three tries?
Both Halladay and Kevin Slowey are off to 0-2 starts, but Halladay's double-digit ERA is of concern. He has gone 7-4 for his career against the Marlins, and this could be just the tonic his is looking for to get on track this season.
Philly has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Miami, and 6 of the last 8 overall versus the Marlins.
Going to take a shot, lay a little wood on the road, and go with Halladay to come through.
Phillies take the rubber game.
3* PHILADELPHIA
BRAD WILTON
Sunday's free play will be the Cubs over the Giants.
I know Edwin Jackson is off to an 0-2 start with his new team, but I would rather back him today in the home dog role, as I really think something is wrong with Tim Lincecum.
After getting shipped to the bullpen last October, Lincecum has returned to the rotation, and has been struggling mightily with control issues. Lincecum has walked 11 batters in his 11 innings of work this year, and he is fresh off allowing 6 runs in 6 innings in a no-decision his last time out.
Jackson is at least .500 for his career versus the Giants at 2-2, and while he may not be the pitcher he once was, I will look for him to keep his team in it just long enough for the Cubs to have that one big inning that carries the day against the erratic Lincecum.
Underdog play on the Cubbies this Sunday.
1* CHICAGO CUBS
CRAIG DAVIS
Free play of the day on the NY Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles after yesterday's 5-3 loss with Phil "I really suck in April" Hughes on the mound.
Today the Yanks send Hiroki Kuroda to the mound in an attempt to get back on track after two shaky starts to begin this 2013 campaign.
Kuroda is off to a 1-1 start, but one of his starts was so bad his ERA is still ballooned at 6.75. We all remember how good this guy was last year in his first year with the Yankees and I see him getting back to form tonight vs. a division rival.
The Baltimore Orioles were having their way with the Red Sox until New York beat them two nights ago with CC Sabathia on the mound.
While tonight it's a different type of pitcher than CC, it's still a better pitcher than your average starter and Kuroda needs one of those dominant starts to get back in rhythm.
The Yanks and Orioles have given us some really good games in the past, but New York seems to need this game more without their stars in the lineup, and the way Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner are hitting lately, I like my chances with New York as your free play of the day.
4* N.Y. YANKEES