Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday April, 15

Marc Lawrence

Miami Heat at New York Knicks
Prediction: Miami Heat

The Heat and Knicks meet in a possible playoff preview at the Garden in New York Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, LeBron James takes the floor having knocked off the Knicks in both meetings this year knowing he is 16-1 SU and 11-6 ATS in games with Miami against foes seeking same season double revenge exact, including 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS the last 15 matchups. With the Knicks off a 104-65 romp over Washington and just 1-5 ATS in division games when playing off a win of 32 or more points, look for King James to hold court here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Carlo Campanella

Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Orlando Magic

The Cavs (19-38) have nothing to play for on Sunday as they have dropped 11 games out from the last Eastern Conference Playoff spot, while Orlando (34-25) is the 6th seed and only 1 game away from earning the 4th seed even though they've lost 7 of their last 9 games. This is the perfect spot for Orlando to get a much need victory and also build some momentum for the Playoffs as they face a Cleveland squad that they beat by 13 points, 93-80, in the last meeting on March 23rd and by 8 points in February. Lay the lumber with this road favorite knowing that the Cavs are 1-9 ATS at home playing with revenge from a loss against a team that held them to 85 points or less.

Vegas Experts

Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have handled the Raptors with ease in the only two meetings between the teams this season, winning by 9 and 23. This evening, they are fortunate to be catching Toronto off a SU dog win Friday night at home vs. Boston. Atlanta destroyed Orlando that same night, 109-81, as two-point road favorites. Toronto is just 4-14 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Look for Atlanta to win and cover this first game of a home and home set between these teams.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Chicago Bulls -8

The Pistons fall into an 80% Play against system here tonight that goes against home dogs of 5 or more playing with 1 day of rest, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a home favorite of of 4 or less. The Bulls are 11-0 with 9 covers the last 3 years vs Detroit and have won all 3 this season by 12 or more points. The Bulls are 10-0 with 9 spread wins on the road when the total is 180 to 185 and the Pistons are 3-9 and 4-8 to the spread in Division games this season. Look for the Bulls to follow up there big Win vs Miami with a win and cover here tonight.

Matt Fargo

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto looks to avoid the sweep on Sunday after dropping the first two games of this series against the Orioles. The Blue Jays looked great against the Indians and Red Sox in their first two series but the pitching, which has been very solid, has let them down against Baltimore. The offense has been on a slow start out of the gates and that was going to be a strength but there is still time for that to come around. With the pitching matchup today, it likely starts Sunday.

The Blue Jays got a solid performance from Kyle Drabek is his season opener and they are hoping this top prospect puts it together following a rough start last season. He allowed just one run on three hits in 5.1 innings against the Red Sox and he faced the Orioles once in 2010, allowing three runs in six innings in a quality outing.

The Orioles counter with Brian Matusz who did not have a similar strong start to the season. He allowed four runs on six hits and four walks in his opener against the Yankees and going back to last season, he has been horrible. He went 1-9 with a 10.69 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in 12 starts last year but he was able to snag a spot in the rotation following a solid spring which has not carried over into the regular season. In three career starts against Toronto, he is 0-2 with an 18.56 ERA and 3.38 WHIP in just 5.1 innings.

Dave Cokin

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies

Not impressed with Trevor Cahill's debut for the Snakes. Base numbers were good, but the peripherals were not and his velocity was significantly down. Look for lefty Drew Pomerantz and the Rockies to win this one.

Jim Feist

Celtics vs Bobcats
Pick: Under

The Boston Celtics are in one of their second of a back-to-back spot tonight. All season long this has been a spot I've looked at for either going against the Celtics or going UNDER. It's difficult for me to play on the Bobcats here, they are the worst team in the NBA and even a tired and aged Celtics team can handle them with ease. But I am looking at the UNDER. The Celtics have been in this spot 19 times this season and have scored an average of just 88.7 ppg while allowing just 88.1 ppg. In addition, they have gone UNDER in 12 of those 19 games including their last two. I don't expect Charlotte to get much over 80 points here on Sunday against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. But what will keep this game under is the Celtics, who will look to slow the pace in a game they should win pretty easily. Take the UNDER here on Sunday.

Nick Parsons

Canucks vs Kings
Pick: Under

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the Under: The 7 million dollar man in-between the pipes is once again on the hot seat in Vancouver, where after two losses on home ice, Roberto Luongo could be replaced by backup Cory Schneider. Schneider was responsible for bringing the Canucks out of a funk throughout the season, going 20-8-1 and was second in the league with a .938 save %. Head Coach Alain Vigneault was coy about his game 3 starter, telling the press “I am not going to tell you, as I have not told my guys, and I will tell them today”. Daniel Sedin is still not practicing with the team, and will not join them on this road trip. While they have no question struggled without the talented Swede, at closer look their struggles on the power play actually go back to Jan. 7, where the powerplay has been 10/130 good for 12.3 %. After being top in the league on the PP at the time by leaps and bounds to the competition, Vancouver dropped to 4th overall during this slump. The Kings were 29th in league scoring and won the bulk of their games thanks to their Vezina potentially winning goalie Jonathon Quick. Leading the league with 10 shutouts, Quick sported a GAA of 1.95 and stood on his head on a number of occasions for a team that scored a paltry 2.33 goals per game. We like the potential for the Kings to play close to their season averages and fall below the low total. With Vancouver potentially looking at a 3-0 hole, and their players maybe holding their sticks a little tighter, we also expect a very physical battle as these teams compete in this critical game in the series. Consider the Under.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

TORONTO -1.5 (+125) over Baltimore: Brian Matusz. What can we say about this guy? Other than he is horrible. Last year he went 1-9 with a 10.69 ERA and it's continued this year as he is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA after 1 start. To make it worse for him to day is the fact that he is going up against a Jays team that is looking to avoid the sweep here and a team that has crushed him in his 3 career starts vs them. Brian is 0-2 with an 15.56 ERA in those three starts and he is yet to pitch past the 3rd inning vs this team. The Jays are a struggling offensive team, but they are starting to come out of it as they have put 9 runs on the board in the first 2 games of the series so far. This is a team with plenty of pop and should have an overall good showing today, vs a very weak pitcher. Baltimore's offense has been good in this series, as they have hit .264 and have scored 13 runs in the 2 games, but Kyle Drabek has the ability to slow this team down. Kyle won his opening start, allowing just 1 ER on 3 hits in 5.1 innings of work in a 7-3 win over Boston. Baltimore did see Drabek in relief last year and he faced them in 2010, allowing 3 ER in 6 innings of work, but current members of the O's still haven't seen a lot of him as thos players have just 13 total AB's vs him and that should give Drabek a solid edge here. Toronto is the better team here and they do not want to get swept at home by a team that was slated by all to be in the basement of the AL East. The Jays should win by 4+ here.

Philadelphia/ NY Mets Over 7: Rather Low OU line considering the way today's pitchers have fared against these teams in the past. Mike Pelfrey had a rough year last year, as he went 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA and it didn't start out well for him this year as he allowed 10 hits and 3 ER in 5.2 innings of work to a weak hitting Washington team. Mike has also struggled vs the Phils in his career as he has a 5.37 ERA in 19 career starts vs them, including an 8.60 ERA in 8 starts at the Bank. Lets also note that Mike has a career 5.36 ERA in 67 starts on the road and while he has a winning record in March/ April (9-6), he still has a 5.01 in 22 starts during those moths and that would indicate high scoring games. One other stat to consider here is the fact that with the Phils such huge favorites in this one you would expect them to win outright and Mike has a 7.11 ERA in his 54 career losses. Cole Hamels has had a fine career for the Phils, but this is a team he has struggled with, as he has a 4.47 ERA in 17 starts vs them, including a 6.85 ERA in 4 starts vs them last year and a 14.84 ERA in his last 2 games vs them here. Neither offense is all that powerful, but I have to believe that vs these pitchers these teams should be able to claw out at least 3 runs each and at the very least that will give us a push. I will call for 9 runs in this one though. KEY TREND--- The Over is 15-4-2 the last 21 in the series.

ST LOUIS -1.5 (+115) Over Chicago: This is my rubber match as I won 1 and lost 1 on the RL in this series so far. The Cards have played very well out the gate, as they look to show everyone that they can win and hit without Albert Pujols. The Cards lead the league in hitting at .293 and they have averaged 5.2 rpg in the early going so far. I new coming into the year that this offense was still very strong and they haven't disappointed yet. today they get to face Paul Maholm, who is just 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Cards. Paul has also struggled to pitch on the road, as he is just 18-42 with a 5.03 ERA in 89 career road starts, plus in March/ April he is just 9-15 with a 4.46 ERA. In his opener Paul allowed 6 ER on 6 hits in just 4 innings of work vs the Brewers, who don't have half the offense that he will face today. Jake Westbrook had a slow start to his Cards career, but he got off to a good starts this year as he allowed 0ER on just 3 hits in 7 innings vs the Reds. Jake has struggled ERA wise vs the Cubs (5.40 in 5 starts), but he does have a 3-2 record in those games. Jake has struggled in March/ April. at 9-18 overall, but he is 3-2 as a member of the Cards. He looks focused and is ready for a solid year for the Cards. St Louis has more offense and the better pitching on the mound. The should win this one with ease.

Arizona/ Colorado Under 9.5: (Added) The First 2 games in this series scored a ton of runs (28), but today I see a different result. Trevor Cahill had a good opening game for his new team as he allowed just 1 ER on 2 hits in 6 innings of work vs the Padres. He did allow 6 walks in that game, but Colorado is not really a patient team. Trevor does have one start vs Colorado and he allowed 7 ER on 8 hits in just 3.2 innings work back in 2009, so you can bet that he will be looking for a better showing in this one. Depite that shelling, current Colorado hitter still have just a .167 BA vs Cahill in 24 AB's. Arizona's has been solid on offense of late, but the have not faced Drew Pomeranz yet so that should give him an advantage here. After putting up a lot of runs in the first two games this one will be a bit different. Yes we have two good offenses in this one, but the pitchers have the advantage in this one as neither team has seen much from today's starters.

2 UNIT PLAYS

Milwaukee +136 over ATLANTA: Last night the Braves put up 2 early runs but did very little after, and while they won the game they still are not playing well offensively and Naverson does have a 1.50 ERA in 2 career starts vs them. Milwaukee has also struggled offensively this year and while be facing Beachy, who has an 0.75 ERA in 2 starts vs them, but still I don't see the Brewers getting swept here. Their have the better pen and their offense should do enough to come out on top here.

Houston/ Miami Over 7.5: What's this the Astros have a decent offense this year? This team may very well finish in the bottom of the NL Central, but it won't be due to their offense. Houston comes in 9th in hitting (.256) and 11th in runs scored (4.62) and they have put up 9 runs in this series so far. Today they face Anibel Sanchez, who has not allowed an ER in his last 2 home starts vs them, but still I expect this improved Houston offense to get a few runs off of him here. J.A.Happ get's the ball for Houston and in his last 2 trips to Miami he allowed 8 ER on 10 hits and 9 walks in 11.2 innings of work in the two games. The Miami offense is waking up and should have a good showing here. The first 2 games in the series put up 9 runs each and I see more of the same today. KEY TREND--- The Over is 17-4 the last 21 meetings in Miami.

1 UNIT PLAYS

San Francisco/ Pittsburgh Under 7: (Added) Kevin Correia had weird home/ away numbers last year,as he was 2-8 with a 7.71 ERA in 13 home games last year (12 starts), while he was 10-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 14 road starts. He also has a 2.77 ERA in his last 7 starts in March/ April. Ryan Vogelsong is making his first start of the year and he is off a fine 2011 that saw him post a 2.71 ERA, including an ERA of 2.21 in 16 starts here. I don't expect either offense to get rolling in this on as we see about 5 runs scored here.

Chicago/ St Louis Over 8.5: (Added) I expect the Cards to win big in this one and that means a lot of runs from them. Dating back to last year Paul Malholm has a 6.58 ERA in his last 7 starts and in his last 5 vs the Cards he has a 5.14 ERA. The Cards offense will get plenty off of him, while the Cubs should get a few off of Westbrook, who has a 5.40 ERA in 5 starts vs Chicago and a 4.80 ERA in his career in March April. Look for 10+ runs in this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA +111 over Pittsburgh

The Penguins are in trouble. They’re down 0-2 in the series after blowing 3-0 and 2-0 leads at home and that’s a lot different than falling behind and losing a game. Not being able to hold significant leads, especially in the playoffs is not supposed to happen to the Stanley Cup favorite. Marc Andre Fleury has been shaky but the most glaring weakness of all is the Penguins poor defense that keeps getting pressured into making bad decisions. That’s not going to change here and in fact, it could get worse. The defense will now be tentative for fear of making a game changing mistake. Philly comes in loose, extremely confident and in a position to put the proverbial nail in the Pens coffin. It’s not going to be easy and they’ll have to play even better than they did in games one and two but the Flyers should not be a dog in their own building after what they did to this cross-state rival in games one and two. We’ll see if Philly has that killer instinct in them today. We trust that they do. Play: Philadelphia +100 (Risking 2 units).

FLORIDA +103 over New Jersey

After losing 18 OT games during the regular season, we’re going to play the Panthers in regulation only and therefore if it’s a tie after 60 minutes we get a push. Some of you may not have that option and if you don’t, you can either play Florida -½ +165 in regulation or just play them including OT at this same price of +103. Game one saw the Devils jump out to a quick 3-0 lead before the Panthers settled down. Remember, this is a Florida club that was making its first playoff appearance in 12 years. Once they did settle down they took over and really outplayed the Devils in periods 2 and 3. They rallied for two goals in the second period and were in a position to win the game entering the third. They fell short but they did accomplish some positive things. They did not allow the Devils another goal after the first period. They started taking more shots on Marty Brodeur and that’s going to be key. The two goals Brodeur allowed were not pretty. 90% of the goalies in the league would have stopped both of them. We reiterate about how little faith we have in him. The Panthers are down 0-1 but they really don’t have the pressure on them. They’re expected to lose this series quickly and quietly but they’re not an easy out by any stretch and this enticing line on the Devils suggests the odds makers give them a big shot here. Play: Florida +103 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

SACRAMENTO -3 over Portland

As the season winds down, what we have here is a disappointed Trail Blazers team that will finish 11th in the conference out of 15 teams. That’s way below expectations for a team that was supposed to make the playoffs. Portland played hard in its last game at home against Dallas but just fell short, 97-94. That was the game they wanted. It was a home game against the Champs and it was its last meaningful home game of the season. They played it without LaMarcus Aldridge and now they take to the road without their MVP to close out the season with four of its last five away from the Rose Garden. The Blazers have dropped three of four with only win over that span coming against the depleted and undermanned Warriors. This is a guest that would have trouble winning in Sacramento under ideal conditions but these conditions are anything but. The Kings have dropped seven in a row and they’re hungry for a win. At home, Sac is just a game under .500 where they remain a formidable opponent. They should have more energy and desire for this one and they also have more talent with Aldridge on the rack. The Kings make a lot of mistakes but they’re also a young and enthusiastic team that plays with everything they have at home. That effort could turn this one into a cakewalk against what should be at best, a semi-interested visitor. Play: Sacramento -3 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +165 over ST. LOUIS

There are pitchers in this game that should never be this prohibitive a favorite and Jake Westbrook is without question among that group. Westbrook is overvalued here for two reasons. One, he's coming off a three-hit shutout in seven frames in Cincinnati to open the year and two, he pitches for the Cardinals. However, he’s still the same Jake Westbrook that struck out two batters while walking four in his season debut and that had a horrible strikeout rate a season ago. He comes from the Dave Duncan school of pitching and that helps but Westbrook is one of the more hittable pitchers in the game. Last year the league hit .290 off him and he posted an ERA of 4.66. He’s now a year older and he’s a pitcher that should be avoided when laying such a significant price. Paul Maholm is a fourth or fifth starter on any team. He’ll never dominate and he’ll never be any better than he is right now. What he will usually do however, is pitch six innings and give up an average of three runs. We’ll take that when being offered a tag like this against Westbrook. Play: Chicago +165 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

Chicago White Sox -110

Today's Members afternoon start has these pesky Chicago White Sox (4-2 & 1-0 home) hosting the Detroit Tigers (5-2 & 0-1 road) at 2:10 PM EST. The Tigers send righty Rick Porcello to the mound, with a record of 0-0, 2.57 ERA & 1.14 WHIP. He faces young and rising star, splendid splitter Chris Sale (6-6 180), who is 1-0, 1.35 ERA & .75 WHIP. Porcello pitched to the Tampa Bay Rays, while Sale faced the Cleveland Indians on the road. Porcello looks like a veteran compared to Sales, with a career record of 38-30, while Sales has "1" career start plus 101 innings in his short career where has been primarily a reliever. We like the youngster here to master these Detroit Tigers, and pull the Chi Sox into a first place tie with the Tigers

David Banks

Houston Rockets +4

The Houston Rockets (32-27, 31-28 ATS) seemed primed to basically wrap up a playoff spot earlier this week, as they were returning home after winning four straight games on the road and they had two upcoming home games that they were both favored in vs. two teams chasing them in the playoff hunt. Instead of seizing the day, the Rockets lost both games at home to the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns and they are now tied with their opponents here, the Denver Nuggets (32-27, 30-29 ATS), for the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference with seven games remaining. These teams are just one game ahead of ninth place Phoenix and 1 games ahead of 10th place Utah. That makes this a humongous contest Sunday night at the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO at 8:00 ET.

Perhaps the Rockets are better off playing this big game on the road, given that they beat the likes of the Chicago Bulls and the Los Angeles Lakers on the recently completed 4-0 trip, while on the other hand, Houston has now lost three straight games at home including a loss to Indiana in the last game before that trip. The Rockets are still only 12-17 straight up and 13-16 against the spread on the road over the entire season, but they are now on a 6-2 ATS run away from home that also includes an outright win over the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder at their place on March 13th. It is a real mystery how Houston can beat such elite teams on the road and yet lose to mediocre competition at home, but it is what it is and the Rockets are now visiting a Denver team that has been surprisingly lackluster at home itself this season, especially since you would think playing at this high altitude would give the Nuggets a huge edge.

That used to indeed be the case when the Nuggets were one of the most dominant home teams in the NBA, but apparently not any more as they are only 18-12 straight up and a dismal 12-18 ATS at the Pepsi Center this year. They have continued to play at a fast pace as Denver ranks second in the NBA with a tempo rating of 96.7 possessions per game, and yet even at that pace opposing teams are no longer wilting late in games here. Perhaps one reason is because Denver is not making its foes work very hard to score, as the Nuggets rank only 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency permitting 103.8 points per 100 possessions. That is reflected by Denver ranking 29th out of 30 NBA teams in scoring defense at 101.8 points per game and 24th in field goal percentage against at 45.9 percent. The main reason the Nuggets would be in the playoffs if the season ended today is because they lead the NBA in scoring at 103.6 points per game.

The underdogs have done extremely well in this head-to-head series by gong 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight matchups. That is a pattern that has continued in the two meetings this season, as the underdogs are 2-0 both straight up and ATS with each team upsetting the other on the road.