Jimmy Boyd
New Orleans Hornets +5½
The Hornets have quietly covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games, and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS at home during this span. I expect them to make it 8 straight covers on their home floor against a Memphis squad that is just 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.
The Hornets have been deadly when catching points at 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games in the underdog role. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
New Orleans, which has had a days' rest, will be fresher than a Memphis team that just played yesterday. Plus, the Hornets will be lacking no motivation after dropped the season's first two meetings with the Grizzlies. We'll take the points.
Jack Jones
Orlando Magic -6
Following one of their worst losses of the season, the Orlando Magic are highly motivated for a win tonight in Cleveland. The Magic lost 81-109 at home to the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night, and there's no question they are steaming about it. I look for them to take out their frustration on the Cavaliers in this one.
Orlando has been excellent at bouncing back from bad losses all year. After an 83-97 home loss to Chicago on 1/6, Orlando came out their next game and won at Sacramento 104-97. After a 56-87 loss at Boston on 1/23, they came back with a 102-83 win at Indiana. After an 84-100 loss at Charlotte on 3/6, they came back with a 99-94 win at Chicago. After a 59-85 loss to Chicago on 3/19, they came back with a 103-93 home win over Phoenix.
The Cavaliers are running on fumes right now. This will be their 3rd game in 3 days, and their 5th game in 6 days. I'll go against teams that are in this situation almost every single time. Cleveland is not a very deep team because of injuries to three of their best players in Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gibson and Anderson Varejao. I believe Cleveland simply runs out of gas tonight.
The Magic are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Cavaliers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games, including 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. Orlando is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 meetings with Cleveland. Bet the Magic Sunday.
JEFF BENTON
Your Sunday freebie is the New York Knicks plus the points as they play host to the Miami Heat. There is a chance that these two teams could meet in the first round of the playoffs, and I am not sold on this Miami Heat team laying points on the road at all.
Miami is just 13-16 against the spread away from South Beach this year, and of late they have lost both straight up and against the spread in four of their last five road contests.
New York has won outright in 13 of their last 17 games, and they are on a money-making 19-7 spread uptick their last 26 games played at Madison Square Garden.
Series meetings this year show the Heat with a 2-0 straight up ledger, but over the past five meetings, New York has been able to garner the point spread win in four of the five.
Expect the stars (Spike Lee, John McEnroe and Woody Allen to name a few) to be out in force for this possible playoff preview, and expect the home team to come to play.
Knicks plus the points the live home dog this Sunday afternoon.
2♦ NEW YORK KNICKS
MATT RIVERS
NBA free play winner for Sunday is for Atlanta to take it to Toronto in the start of a home-and-home for these two Eastern Conference teams.
Toronto pulled a Friday night home court upset win over the Boston Celtics, but had lost their four games prior - going just 1-3 against the spread along the way. Back to their losing ways I say for the Raptors who have not been able to match up with Atlanta in recent meetings.
Already 0-2 this season, including a 23-point setback the last time the teams played, the Raptors have now lost six in a row, and nine of the last ten series meetings against the Hawks. The points haven't been of much help either, as Toronto is just 3-7 against the spread the last ten times the teams have faced one another.
Atlanta is 5-2 straight up their last seven games, and 6-1 against the spread in those seven tilts. The Hawks have also enjoyed lacing them up on the sabbath, as Atlanta is covering at a 90% clip (9-1 ATS) their last ten Sunday games!
Look for this one to get ugly early, Hawks in a romp.
4♦ ATLANTA
Baseball free play for Sunday is to look for the Reds offensive woes to continue as they conclude their four game set in Washington.
Cincinnati has played a "robust" four runs thus far in the first three games of this series. Washington is not too far behind with nine runs plated. Not surprisingly, ALL three encounters have held Under the total, and I like this afternoon's game to also hold Under the total.
Leake and Detwiler will toe the rubber in this game, and while it is too early to get a firm grasp on how the pair will pitch, looking at the track record of the Reds on the road (now 7-2-1 under their last 10 away from home), and the Nats when favored (now 11-1 under when listed as the chalk), I would tend to believe we are not in line for a very busy day for the scoreboard operator.
Crooked digits rare today at Nationals Park, play the Reds and Nationals to make it 4-for-4 Under the total to wrap up the weekend.
4♦ UNDER
CHUCK O'BRIEN
My free winner for is going to be on the Boston Celtics, laying the road chalk against the Bobcats in Charlotte.
While the Chicago Bulls appear to be running away with the Eastern Conference, and the Miami Heat are struggling, the veteran-laden Celtics have won seven of 10, have taken over first place in the Atlantic Division and are playing well enough to have members of the media touting coach Doc Rivers as the favorite to win coach of the year.
Rightfully so, too, as he has his troops playing the best basketball they've played all season. This will be their big test, albeit against the worst team in the league, as they complete the back-to-back-to-back road trek every team has had to endure this shortened season. And after losing to the Raptors on Friday, and seeing them rebound to win by 12 at New Jersey last night, I think the Celtics are in the right spot to do some damage here, and win big.
Point guard Rajon Rondo has been on it of late, producing double-figure assists in each of his last 14 games. Add in the experience of Kevin Garnett and the hot shooting of Paul Pierce, I might be inclined to say the Celtics are the second-best team on the East right now - not the Heat.
Tonight they take on a struggling Bobcats team that has lost 15 straight and just can't seem to get out of its own way.
And make note, these remaining games are important, as the Celtics are trying to not only win their fifth consecutive Atlantic Division title, but also overtake the Indiana Pacers for third in the East.
Boston comes in on ATS runs of 6-1 on the road, 8-2 off a straight-up win and 11-2 overall. Lay the road chalk, as Boston rolls.
2♦ BOSTON
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free selection, let’s look at the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line against the San Diego Padres.
In the opener, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw only lasted three innings due to a stomach flu. The Padres still could not win the game. This time, they will not be as lucky. You can expect Kershaw to last a little longer.
The Dodgers ace has a history of success against the Padres. He is 7-3 with a 2.24 ERA in his career, including 5-1 with a 1.63 ERA in his last seven starts against the Padres.
Then there’s Matt Kemp, who has been red hot against the Padres, batting .478 with five home runs and 14 RBI in five of the six games they have faced so far this season.
Edinson Volquez gets the start for San Diego. He is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. He had a good outing against Arizona, giving up two runs in seven innings, but the Padres lost in extra innings, 4-2. He will have to be sharp to keep pace with Kershaw.
Expect the Dodger bats to remain productive and just a few runs will be enough for Kershaw.
Take the Dodgers.
2♦ DODGERS -1.5