Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, April 17,2011

Marc Lawrence

St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

A matchup of two hurlers that have come out the gates like molasses takes place at Chavez Ravine in the finale of this four game series between the Cardinals and Dodgers find Chris Carpenter matching serves with Chad Billingsley. Carpenter enters 0-3 with a 5.82 in his three team starts this season while Billingsley checks in 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA. While neither hurler's number warrant support the career history book reminds us that Carpenter is 7-2 with a 2.33 ERA in in this series while Billingsley counters at 1-5 with a 6.17 ERA against the Redbirds. When push comes to shove look for Carpenter to push extra hard in order to avoid an 0-4 start here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

Underdogs were 3-1 ATS yesterday and we like the Knicks to cover, plus the points, here on Sunday. This team was simply phenomenal as a road dog all season long, going 23-7 ATS overall, including 16-4 ATS when taking six or less. They have immediate revenge for a loss in the regular season finale and Boston is a very poor 6-23 ATS off a win by 10 or more this year.

Play on: New York

Steve Merril

Mariners vs. Royals
Play: Under 7.5

The Mariners’ offense has continued their ineptitude so far in the 2011 campaign. Seattle was shut out on Saturday by Sean O’Sullivan and the Royals’ bullpen. The Mariners have scored just 12 runs over their last five games. It makes things tough for the starters who have to be nearly perfect in order to pick up a win. Michael Pineda is one of those starters who has had a rough time despite pitching well. Pineda is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA giving up just five runs and 10 hits in 13.3 innings of work. The righty threw over 100 pitches his last time out and picked up a win in a 3-2 Seattle victory. Opposing Pineda is Jeff Francis. The lefty has pitched great for the Royals, but he has yet to pick up a victory. Francis is coming off a seven inning outing in Minnesota where he gave up just three runs and eight hits. Francis has given up just three runs and 13 hits in 13.7 innings pitched at home. Adam Kennedy (1-6) and Luis Rodriguez (1-4) have poor numbers against the former Rockies starter. Kennedy was the team's cleanup hitter at one point this season which illustrates how poor that Seattle lineup is. The Mariners are hitting under .220 on the road and their average is even worse during the daytime. Francis is backed by a Kansas City bullpen that has an ERA below 4.00 overall and they’ve also been less of a weakness this season. This should be a low scoring affair so we’ll recommend the Under between the Mariners and Royals this afternoon.

San Diego Padres at Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros

Houston picked up their fifth win of the season on Saturday after beating San Diego and Mat Latos. Brett Myers has a chance to end their homestand with another victory on Sunday afternoon. Myers is 1-0 with a 1.77 ERA in three starts for Houston. He's coming off a game where he gave up one run and eight hits in seven innings pitched against the Cubs. Myers is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in five career starts against San Diego. Last year, he gave up two runs and four hits in six innings in a 3-2 San Diego win on the road. Brad Hawpe (2-13), Chase Headley (1-4), Jason Bartlett (0-3), Nick Hundley (0-3) and Orlando Hudson (0-1) all struggle with Myers. As a team, San Diego is hitting around .210 with that average actually lower on the road. The Padres have not put up more then 4 runs in a game since April 10th.

Clayton Richard has been a pitcher who has struggled on the road in his career. Richard has an ERA near 5.00 in 35 starts away from home. Opponents are hitting him at a .308 average when he's not pitching in his home ballpark. The lefty gave up 3 runs and 5 hits in six innings of work in his lone road start this season. Richard has never faced the Astros in his career with only two batters having seen him. Houston is hitting right around .300 at home and over .300 in their two games against left-handed starters this season. Houston's lineup should be successful once again on Sunday as they earn a solid home win over Richard and the Padres.

Cajun Sports

New Orleans Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: New Orleans Hornets +10

The New Orleans Hornets open the 2011 postseason in the City of Angels against the defending champion LA Lakers on Sunday afternoon at the Staples Center. The Lakers are 15-26 ATS as a home favorite this season. LA is just 1-6 against the spread their last seven outings overall. New Orleans enters riding a three-game-losing skid of both straight up and against the number. This situation sets up well for the Hornets as our database reveals a pair of situations that favor the visitor here. Play ON NBA teams coming off three consecutive SU losses by double-digits with the last being by twenty or more points versus an opponent off a SU win, these teams are 75-47-1 ATS since 1999. Play ON an NBA road team (not a favorite of three or more points) off a SU and ATS loss as an underdog of more than seven points in its last game and a SU loss as a favorite of more than six points prior to that versus an opponent without a rest advantage. These road teams have been solid with a record of 14-1-1 ATS their last 16 covering the spread by 9.1 points per game. Take the points here, as the Lakers are once again an inflated home favorite.

Craig Trapp

Nuggets vs. Thunder
Play: Over 199

We had rode the run of under plays for DEN a few weeks ago but now they are healthy they will get back to their high scoring ways. Even better we get the best scorer in basketball Durant as he will lead the Thunder to well over 100 pts tonight. This one looks like a 107-104 game as the Thunder pull it out late.

Rob Vinciletti

Angels vs. White Sox
Play: Over 8

This game fits a solid totals system that plays to the over for home teams with a total of 8 or less that lost as a home favorite by 5 or more runs and scored 32 or less runs vs an opponent off a road dog win by 5 or more runs and had 5 or more men left on base. The White sox have played over 3 of 4 vs winning teams and 4 of 5 times when the total is 8 to 8.5. Chicago is averaging over 6 runs per game in day games and hitting over .300. The Angles have hit well so far on the road this season at .295. In the Pitching matchup we note the Buehrle has gone over on 2 of his last 3 starts vs the Angels. LA. Counters with D. Haren and he has allowed 7 runs and 16 hits in 11 inning sin his most recent starts here in Chicago. The Angles also have a 4.47 road bullpen era. Look for this game to go over the total here today.

BIG AL

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox

If it's not time to panic in Boston, it may be getting close to time. The Red Sox are a Major League worst 3-10 and it would appear that they are down to two reliable starters right now. Fortunately for the Sunday fans who will be in attendance, one of them is lefthander Jon Lester. He will likely have to be at or near his top form this afternoon because the Boston offense is near the bottom in just about every major category. Collectively, the hitters on this team are 12th in the AL in BA (.224), 11th in home runs (9), and tied for last in runs (46). However, Toronto hasn't exactly been knocking the cover off the ball either, as the Jays -- last year's runaway leader in team HRs -- have only managed 12 round-trippers so far after 14 games. Moreover, the Jays have extra trouble hitting lefties so, with Lester being one of the best in the game, don't be surprised if Toronto's bats are silenced once again. Take the Red Sox.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Oakland A's -152

Detroit starter Brad Penny is off to a rough start. He's 0-1 with an ERA of 8.27 and a WHIP of 1.715 through 3 starts. Oakland starter Trevor Cahill, meanwhile, is picking up where he left off last season. He's out of the gate strong at 1-0 with an ERA of 3.11 and a WHIP of 1.153. The last time Penny saw the A's, he gave up 7 earned in just 5 innings. Cahill, meanwhile, has shut the Tigers down in each of his last two starts against them, holding them to 5 hits in each and 2 or fewer runs. The Athletics are 20-9 in Cahill's last 29 starts, 20-8 in his last 28 home starts, 19-7 in his last 26 starts as a favorite and 11-3 in his last 14 starts as a home favorite. The A's are also 9-1 in Cahill's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record, including 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing mark. We'll get behind the better starting pitcher in this one. Take the A's.

Tom Freese

New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -6

New York is 42-40 this year. The Knicks are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games off an ATS loss. New York is 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 Conference Quarter Finals game. New York is 1-6 ATS their last 7 games off a straight up loss. The Knicks are 9-19-1 their last 29 meetings with the Celtics. Boston is 56-26 this year. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS their last 4 home games and they are 5-1 ATS when playing with 3 or more days of rest. The Celtics are 13-4 ATS on Sunday. Boston is 6-1 ATS their last 7 Conference Quarterfinal games. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS their last 11 Playoff games as favorites.

Freddy Wills

G1 Milwaukee Brewers vs. G1 Washington Nationals
Play: G1 Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo looks to be 100% healthy this year and he's got a 2.70 ERA on the year. He has to be itching to get back out on the mound after the rain dealy and coming off his last start of 5 IP 7 hits and 4 ER vs. the Cubs. I believe he will bounce back against the Nationals who in his career he has good numbers especially against their active batters who have just 53 AB and a .151 average to go along with a .442 OPS. He'll face Jason Marquis early on Sunday.

Jason Marquis struggled last year and he has not had a lot of success against the Brewers as of late. I like the fact hte Brewers have been hitting and have a .330 average in 106 AB against Marquis to go along with a .968 OPS. Gallardo was great in his other two starts against the Reds and Braves giving up just 2 ER in 15 innings pitched. Gallardo will make the day start where he struggled a year ago with a 4.24 ERA in 11 starts, but in 2010 he dominated in 14 with a 2.47 ERA. Over the last 3 years he has 27 day starts and a 3.21 ERA. Nationals are without Zimmerman still and the Brewers are 13-3 with Yovani on the mound facing a losing team.

JR O'Donnell

Cincinnati Reds -1.5

Early Barn Stormer on the Volquez led 9-5 Cinnci Reds -1.5 as the 6-8 Pirates get barnstormed early in Cinnci. We are very high on Cinnci hurler Volquez as he checks in @ 2-0 but a close to 6 ERA... He does well vs these Pirates ..2.33 ERA.These Reds who pounded the rock last year ..check in @ .288 BA & they have knocked 19 out of the park & 86 runs have scored! The Reds are hitting the ball 11 Runs & 4 Homers last night! The Pirates are wheeling with Karstans who will be knocked around. Votto has feasted on Karstans... .600 BA.. We note that J Karstens went 1-6 in 11 road starts last season. The Power ratings here are off the charts @ Cinnci - 235 as we will play the Run Line.... Pittsburgh gets steam rolled today...

Bryan Leonard

LA Angels at Chicago
Play: LA Angels

Dan Haren has been virtually perfect in the early going as he has mowed down the Indians and Rays. The Angels are heating up playing great defense and using timely hitting. They have the patience to match up well with Chicago's starter.

Mark Buehrle is an innings eater and a very good defensive player. But he's not the type of starter that worries the opposition. Chicago is underperforming right now and hasn't hit their stride. This is a talented offense that is likely to warm up when the summer months hit the midwestern area of the country. Haren is in a groove right now and the Sox bats are in a spin. Cheap price on the surging Angels here.

EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Lakers -10.5

This is the worst possible match up that New Orleans could have drawn in the first round of the playoffs. The Lakers swept the teams' four game regular season series with their height and strength as they mercilessly out muscled the Hornets in the paint. The tandem of seven-footers Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum were way too much for the slimmer and sleeker Hornets to handle, and that was when New Orleans star David West was healthy and playing. Without the services of West this is even a bigger mismatch. The Hornets are 0-6 against the spread in their last six playoff games as an underdog and I expect that drought to continue. Lay the points.

James Patrick Sports

Nuggets vs. Thunder

The Big Man's Sunday Night NBA complimentary selection is on Oklahoma City Thunder as the Nuggets are just (1-6) ATS in the last (7) meetings in Oklahoma City and no team is more injured heading into the postseason than Denver is. The list of walking wounded includes: Danilo Gallinari (right ankle), Wilson Chandler (left ankle), Arron Afflalo (left hamstring), Chris "Birdman" Andersen (right ankle), Al Harrington (undisclosed) and Timofey Mozgov (left knee and ankle). Thunder get their game in gear for a tough series if they aren't careful.