Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Houston Astros -121
Brett Myers is sizzlin' out of the gate at 1-0 with an ERA of 1.77 through 3 starts. He is also 2-0 lifetime when starting against San Diego with an ERA of 2.35. The 'Stros have been money in the bank with Myers on the bump at home. The Astros are 13-1 in Myers' last 14 home starts. Also, the Padres are just 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Houston. Take the Astros.
O.C. Dooley
Hornets / Lakers Under 182
The Lakers wrapped up the regular season by playing 3 consecutive high scoring games including a 116-108 overtime shootout back on Wednesday on the road in what was a very emotional game for Sacramento who may see their franchise moved to a city. During their 34-year stay in Sacramento the Kings traditionally had one of the league’s more exciting offenses. Last Sunday on their own home floor the Lakers once again were involved in a 120-106 shootout against playoff bound Oklahoma City so one has to wonder why the over/under figure for today’s opener is so low even though the New Orleans offense this season (95 ppg average) has been average at best. In their last pair of games on the road New Orleans has allowed massive point counts of 121 and 111 so today’s low posted total speaks volumes. My database research indicates that this is an incredible percentage wager as the Lakers are 7-0 UNDER the total for the season when off a road game where the offense put at least 110 points on the scoreboard. But the big news is that New Orleans is an amazing 11-0 UNDER with “triple revenge” against an opponent. With the Hornets as the only team in the Western Conference not to have beaten the Lakers this season that undefeated totals angle comes into play late this afternoon
JIM FEIST
LOS ANGELES ANGELS / CHICAGO WHITE SOX
TAKE: LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Arguably, the hottest pitcher in baseball dating back to the end of last year takes to the mound today in LA's Dan Haren. Not only is Haren 3-0 this season with a 0.73 ERA, but he's 7-0 with a 1.39 ERA in his last 12 games since a loss at Minnesota back in August 2010. Futhermore, Haren is coming off a spectacular one-hit effort in a shut out win over Cleveland last Tuesday. Haren looks to give the Angels their first sweep of Chicago for the first time in almost six years. Mark Buehrle gets the start today for the White Sox. Buehrle has a 2-6 lifetime mark against the Angels with a 4.27 ERA in 17 starts. Today's contest should be a very good pitcher's duel, but I'm going to side with the Angels here. They are playing well to start the season and have what I believe is the league's hottest pitcher starting with a short road favorite price. Take the Angels.
SPORTS WAGERS
NASHVILLE -½ +118 over Anaheim
The Preds scored eight goals in the two games combined in Anaheim and that’s something that should not be ignored. We keep stressing that goaltending is ultimately the deciding factor in most of these playoff games and Pekka Rinne has a huge edge over anyone the Ducks use. The Preds won game one in Anaheim 4-1 but game two, the one they lost, is even more significant. The Ducks won 5-3 but four of their goals were scored on the power-play and one was into an empty net. Now the venue switches to Nashville and Barry Trotz is going to stress how vital it is to stay out of the box. In 5 on 5 play the Ducks have done very little and now they’re going to have to play on the road without Bobby Ryan, a key contributor on the Ducks best line. This is an electric place to play come playoff time and the Preds have all the momentum despite losing game two. They just fell short in game two and you can just see it in their body language that they know they can beat this intruder. This is a great spot and a great price, as it’s the series pivotal game and the Preds have a team on the ropes for the first time in a long time in round one. Play: Nashville -½ +118 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +112 over COLORADO
Alan Johnson is a career minor leaguer that’s never been much of a prospect. He’ll be 28 in August and his career ERA in the minors is 4.55. Last season for the Colorado Springs Sky Sox of the Triple-A Pacific Coast, Johnson allowed 189 hits in 142 frames for a BAA of .326. His ERA last season was 5.91 and in ’09 it was 5.66, also for the Triple A Sky Sox. He’s been pitching in the minors for the past seven years and he signed as an undrafted free agent. When Ryan Dempster looks online this morning and sees Alan Johnson favored over him, it should infuriate him. Dempster is 1-2 in three starts with an ERA of 6.30 but pay no attention to that. His xERA is 3.49 and once again he has a strong groundball rate of 53%. Dempster has produced three consecutive solid seasons with nearly identical skills** (for more in depth look at skills see bottom of these write-ups), marking him as one of the game's most consistent hurlers. He’s also struck out 22 batters in 20 innings this season, which is key in determining if a pitcher is losing it. Dempster is not and nor should he be a pooch against a career minor-leaguer with zero major league experience. Play: Chicago +112 (Risking 2 units).
*In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Sean Murphy
Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians
It's generally not a good idea to step in front of streaks on the diamond, and the Orioles are a runaway train right now, losers of six in a row, outscored by a whopping 45-14 margin over that stretch.
Needless to say, I feel the price is right to back the Indians on Sunday.
Cleveland ran into some tough pitching in Anaheim earlier in the week, dropping back-to-back games against the Angels. They've bounced back nicely in this series, scoring exactly eight runs in each of the first two games. They're now 10-4 on the season, and have reeled off six straight victories here at Progressive Field.
The starting pitching matchup favors the Indians on Sunday as they send Fausto Carmona to the hill against Bradley Bergesen.
Carmona got rocked in his season debut against the White Sox, allowing 11 hits and 10 runs over three innings. The betting markets still haven't forgiven him for that performance. All he's done since is hold the Red Sox and Angels to six hits and two earned runs in 14 2/3 innings of work.
Brad Bergesen didn't make the O's starting rotation to start the season, but finds himself making his second spot start on Sunday. He didn't fare well in his last outing, allowing five hits and four runs, two of them earned, in just 3 2/3 innings against the Tigers. He needed 89 pitches to get 11 outs, not a good ratio by any means. Bergesen did toss a complete game here in Cleveland last August, but that was against a much different Indians squad.
Thanks to the lopsided nature of the first two games of this series, the Indians have managed to keep the key arms in their bullpen rested and ready. That gives them yet another advantage should this one be close in the latter innings.
There's no question, the Tribe have been short-changed by the oddsmakers in the first two games of this series, and I don't think they've made enough of an adjustment on Sunday either. Take Cleveland
David Chan
Canucks @ Blackhawks
PICK: Under 5
I bet value where I see it and believe that Game 3 between these heated rivals will be a hard-fought, tight-checking affair.
So can the Blackhawks get back in this series?
If they hope to win this contest, there is no question that they'll have to play a more physical game; something the Canucks did extremely well over the first two contests.
Vancouver has done an amazing job in slowing down Chicago's top players, as Jon Toews, Patrick Sharp, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa have totaled just one assist over the first two games!
“They are well conditioned athletes, I’m sure they can handle it. We’re going to keep playing them hard and try to wear them down as much as possible,” said the Canucks Ryan Kesler, who is widely considered one of the NHL's top defensive centers.
“When you are playing that many minutes, if they are easy minutes and we’re not physical on them, then it makes their job even easier. … Nothing is better than scoring a goal, but shutting those guys down is fun.”
Vancouver is doing an excellent job with special teams as well, as Chicago is 0-5 on the power-play thus far (note that Vancouver has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last five on the road).
The Canucks get a boost in this game as well, as Raffi Torres is available for the fist time in the series; Torres will definitely give Vancouver yet another physical presence (note that the Blackhawks have seen the total go "under" the number in 15 of 24 after allowing 4-goals or more).
Corey Crawford and Roberto Luongo take center-stage in this all-important Game 3 battle; consider a second look at the "under"!
David Malinsky
Pirates @ Reds
PICK: Over 9.5
We are going to put one base concept into play here, with a firm belief that the Reds can score against Jeff Karstens and the Pirate bullpen on a day with the wind blowing out in the Great American Ballpark. And by playing both sequences we can work around Edinson Volquez, who is a bit of a wild card for this setting.
This is a difficult matchup for Karstens, who did not get a lot of work in spring training, and has only had 5.2 IP over three relief appearances since then, the last coming more than a week ago. He is that bad combination of a fly ball guy that does not get nearly enough K’s to make up for that, hence why he allowed 21 HR’s in just 122.2 IP LY. He is a bad fit here from both a style and quality standpoint, and may not be able to make more than two full passes through the Cincinnati lineup. It does not get any better for the Pirates after he leaves.
Here is the problem with Volquez – from a value standpoint we would like to get behind him, because he has thrown some of the best pitches of anyone in the Major Leagues this April. Yes, we say that about a guy with a 5.82 ERA. His problem has been getting warmed up properly – he has allowed nine first inning runs, but in all other frames has worked to a 1.29 ERA. He has more K’s than IP, plus a dynamic 3.67 ratio of ground-ball outs to fly-outs, and of the 46 batters that he has retired, 40 have come via a K or a ground-ball. That is terrific. But he had this start moved back a day because he experienced a sore neck earlier in the week. So while we believe that the first inning issues can be resolved, which leaves a guy that has been running his fastball out there at 94 mph, and also getting a ton of ground-balls, at a terrific value point, those health issues have us bringing this Total into play as protection. If the Reds get to five runs the worst that we can do is go 0-1-1 for the sequence, and we believe they cross the plate more than that this afternoon.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Nuggets/Thunder OVER 200
Play Over on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games and after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games - are 36-13 since 1996. The Over is 20-5-1 in the Thunder's last 26 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this matchup in Oklahoma City. Bet the Over.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals -121
The St. Louis Cardinals continue rolling Sunday with Ace Chris Carpenter on the mound. St. Louis just missed tying a franchise record with 14 hits in six consecutive games. That's one of the few things the Cardinals have missed at the plate lately. Above .500 for the first time this season, St. Louis goes for its fifth straight victory and a four-game sweep visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers.
After getting 14 or more hits in their previous five games - the longest such streak since a franchise-record six-game stretch Aug. 31-Sept. 7, 1930 - the Cardinals (8-7) had 13 hits - including five straight in the ninth off Ramon Troncoso - in Saturday's 9-2 victory. St. Louis, batting .376 and averaging 9.4 runs while winning six of seven, has won seven straight against the Dodgers. Chris Carpenter is 6-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 9 career starts against L.A. The Cardinals have won 7 of those 8 games. Chad Billinsgley is 1-3 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.728 WHIP in 6 career starts against St. Louis. The Dodgers are 1-5 in those games. Take the Cardinals Sunday.
WUNDERDOG
Washington at New York Rangers
Pick: New York Rangers -120
Things couldn't have started worse for the Rangers as they have dropped both games in Washington, scoring a total of 1 goal. But, this game is at home and I expect their offense to return enough to get the win. New York averages 3.1 goals per game here and their defense, which held the Capitals to 2 goals per game in the opening two games, allows just 2.4 per game. Washington scores at home, but on the road they average just 2.4 per game. After a loss by 2+ goals this season, the Rangers are 15-5. This is basically a must-win game for them and I think they get it.